Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall market trend remains positive in the medium term, despite recent minor adjustments due to external events such as the Central Political Bureau meeting and U.S.-China trade negotiations [2][3][4] - The report recommends three main investment lines: strong growth in technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and military; sectors with economic support or performance exceeding expectations like rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural products; and structural policies in service consumption and real estate that may lead to valuation recovery opportunities [2][4][40] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the "anti-involution" theme and real estate sectors were due to the Central Political Bureau meeting's outcomes being below market expectations, suggesting a potential correction phase for these sectors [5][18][19] - The technology sector has shown resilience, with several industries reaching new highs, indicating that the current technology market may continue to develop positively as key warning indicators have not yet been fully met [6][26][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring five warning indicators to assess the sustainability of the current technology market, including valuation percentiles and market breadth [26][35][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The resumption of VAT collection on treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds is expected to have a neutral impact on the bond market. The relatively low VAT rate and its application only to interest income limit the direct impact on the bond market [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Yield Curve**: Yields on treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds generally declined. Treasury bond yields decreased across various tenors, with the 1Y yield down 1bp, 3Y down 3bp, etc. China Development Bank bond yields also dropped, such as the 1Y yield down about 2bp and 3Y down 4bp [18]. - **Term Spread**: The spread between treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds increased. For treasury bonds, the short - term spread was differentiated, and the long - term spread narrowed. For China Development Bank bonds, the spread increased, and the term spread generally narrowed [19][20][21]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage Ratio**: It dropped to 107.46%. From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated upward during the week. As of August 1, it was about 107.46%, up 0.7pct from the previous Friday and 0.66pct from Monday [22]. - **Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover of pledged repurchase this week was 6.6 trillion yuan, with an average daily overnight proportion of 86.77%. The average daily turnover decreased by 1.05 trillion yuan compared to last week [27]. - **Funding Situation**: Bank funding supply fluctuated upward. Large state - owned banks and policy banks had a net funding supply of 4.38 trillion yuan on August 1. The main fund - borrowing party was funds, and the money - market fund's funding supply fluctuated downward [33]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: It dropped to 2.83 years. On August 1, the median duration (ex - leverage) was 2.83 years, down 0.05 years from the previous Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 3.18 years, down 0.06 years from the previous Friday [47]. - **Interest - Rate Bond Fund Duration**: It dropped to 3.88 years. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) decreased to 3.88 years, down 0.06 years from the previous Friday [49][52]. 3.4 Category Strategy Comparison - **China - US Yield Spread**: The short - term spread narrowed, and the long - term spread widened. The 1Y spread narrowed by 1bp, 2Y by 4bp, etc., while the 7Y spread widened by 2bp, 10Y by about 4bp, and 30Y by 5bp [54]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: It generally narrowed. As of August 1, the 1Y spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 2bp, 3Y by about 1bp, etc. [57]. 3.5 Bond Lending Balance Changes - On August 1, the lending concentration of active and second - active 10Y treasury bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds trended upward, while that of the second - active 10Y China Development Bank bonds trended downward. All institutions showed an upward trend [58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience and diversification in its business structure, with new application fields accounting for over half of its revenue [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 9.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million yuan, up 7.46% year-on-year [3] - The company’s revenue from clean energy, smart grid, and smart equipment applications collectively accounted for over half of total revenue, with the electromagnetic wire business showing significant growth [3] - The company has successfully participated in several ultra-high voltage projects, with sales of ultra-high voltage transformers increasing by 241.18% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the gross profit margin was 10.32%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company expects revenues of 20.033 billion yuan, 22.598 billion yuan, and 25.444 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 706 million yuan, 788 million yuan, and 879 million yuan [4][6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.5, 10.3, and 9.2 respectively [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from clean energy applications was 1.196 billion yuan, accounting for 12.81% of total revenue [3] - Revenue from smart grid applications was 2.600 billion yuan, making up 27.85% of total revenue [3] - Revenue from smart equipment applications was 878 million yuan, representing 9.41% of total revenue [3] - The electromagnetic wire business generated revenue of 3.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.67%, accounting for 40.13% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [3]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June, indicating a significant contraction and falling below market expectations of 49.6%[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1% from 50.5%, while the composite PMI output index fell to 50.2%[2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders fell below the expansion threshold, with new export orders declining by 0.6 percentage points, marking a four-month low[5] - The production index showed a notable decline but remained in the expansion zone, indicating ongoing production activity despite weakening demand[3] Price and Cost Pressures - Major raw material purchase prices surged, leading to a significant increase in factory prices, although the increase in factory prices lagged behind raw material costs, creating a record price gap for the year[7] - The supply chain faced pressures as the supplier delivery time index slightly increased, indicating stable logistics efficiency amidst rising costs[3] Inventory and Procurement Trends - Finished goods inventory saw a substantial decrease, reflecting a shift from passive to active inventory reduction strategies by companies due to high costs and weak demand[8] - Procurement volumes dropped significantly, entering a contraction phase as companies adjusted their purchasing strategies in response to declining orders[5] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while consumer goods PMI dropped to 49.5%, indicating a contraction in consumer demand[4] - Large enterprises experienced a decline in PMI, while medium-sized enterprises showed a slight recovery, highlighting a growing disparity among different business sizes[4] Future Outlook - The July PMI data reversed the optimistic expectations from June, indicating a retreat in demand, inventory cycles, and industry dynamics[10] - The bond market is expected to reflect these economic realities, with the ten-year government bond yield showing an upward trend despite the contraction in manufacturing PMI[12]

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.347 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.43% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 964 million yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 927 million yuan, growing 17.85% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin stood at 34.24%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points year-on-year [2] Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.364 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.51% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 553 million yuan, up 13.25% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 546 million yuan, growing 20.52% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 34.67%, with a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year and 0.90 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Product Performance - The company's relay products generated a revenue of 7.614 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.26% [3] - The company maintains the largest market share globally in the relay market, driven by strong growth in smart home, industrial automation, photovoltaic sectors, and the rapid development of electric vehicles [3] - The high-voltage control box project for electric vehicles is progressing smoothly, showing significant year-on-year growth [3] New Product Development - The "5+" new product categories, including switches, connectors, capacitors, fuses, and current sensors, are developing steadily [4] - The shipment of film capacitors increased by 31% year-on-year, and current sensors saw a 36% year-on-year growth [4] - The ceramic block DC fast fuse HPE509 received UL certification, indicating potential for stable growth as new customer projects are introduced [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.371 billion yuan, 18.892 billion yuan, and 21.770 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit projections for the same years are 1.961 billion yuan, 2.281 billion yuan, and 2.487 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 18.3, 15.7, and 14.4 times [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report indicates significant improvement in performance, with a forecasted revenue of 8.2 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 0.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 354.6% [10] - The company is expected to benefit from improved domestic market share profitability, sustained high growth in overseas markets, and contributions from automotive and commercial sectors [8] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 39.8 billion yuan, 46.9 billion yuan, and 53.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.0%, 17.6%, and 13.7% [8] Revenue Analysis - The company anticipates a decline in domestic sales for Q2 due to weak domestic demand, while foreign sales are expected to continue double-digit growth [10] - The domestic gross margin is projected to improve to 30%, driven by product mix, chip price reductions, and optimization of solutions [7] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q2 is expected to be 3.2%, with core drivers being the domestic gross margin improvements and stable foreign sales at over 40% [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.0 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.5 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 150%, 36%, and 35% respectively [8] Financial Projections - Key financial metrics for 2025E include revenue of 39.82 billion yuan, net profit of 301 million yuan, and a P/E ratio of 24.13 [11] - The company expects to achieve a gross margin of 31.7% in 2025, increasing to 34.2% by 2027 [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading enterprise in the structural heart and peripheral intervention high-value consumables sector, with potential collaborations on multiple external BD projects. The main business is structured into three product lines and several strategic cooperation projects, aiming to expand its product portfolio [3][4] - The company is expected to see a reversal of difficulties as domestic price adjustments reach a bottom, with international business accelerating. The company has a strong market share in its main products and has established a significant international presence with 7 overseas subsidiaries and registrations in 1059 markets [4][5] - The iron-based stent platform is anticipated to disrupt the existing treatment landscape, with promising clinical results and regulatory approvals expected in the coming years [5][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on structural heart disease and peripheral vascular disease, with a strong international sales network covering over 100 countries. It has a robust patent portfolio and is recognized as a leader in the domestic market [15][19] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.304 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.88%. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 1.403 billion, 1.528 billion, and 1.736 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 9%, and 14% [8][10][29] Product Lines and Market Position - The company has a diversified product matrix, including structural heart disease devices and peripheral vascular solutions. The structural heart disease market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the company positioned to capture a substantial market share [31][34] - The company leads in the congenital heart disease occluder market, holding a 34% market share, and is well-positioned in the left atrial appendage occluder market, which is expected to grow rapidly [36][42] International Expansion - The company has accelerated its internationalization efforts, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 26.6% of total revenue in 2024. The strategic partnership with Jianhu Medical is expected to enhance its presence in the electrophysiology field [29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue and profit have slowed down mainly due to pressure in the air conditioning business, while the profitability of the washing and refrigeration segment has improved significantly due to cost reduction and efficiency enhancements [11] - The company is expected to see a low single-digit decline in air conditioning sales in Q2, while the washing and refrigeration segment is projected to grow at a low single-digit rate [6][11] - The company has announced changes in its board of directors, which may lead to potential overseas growth opportunities [8] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue was 24.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [9] - For the first half of the year, revenue reached 49.34 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.077 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [9] - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 21.55%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [10] Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales are expected to remain flat, while external sales are projected to grow by approximately 5% in Q2 [9] - The revenue growth ranking by product is expected to be washing and refrigeration > home air conditioning > central air conditioning [9] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the washing and refrigeration segment improved due to increased capacity utilization and structural improvements [10] - The net profit margin for Q2 was 3.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily impacted by the air conditioning business [10] Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 98.449 billion yuan, 104.069 billion yuan, and 109.518 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 5.7%, and 5.2% respectively [11] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.561 billion yuan, 3.778 billion yuan, and 4.003 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.4%, 6.1%, and 5.9% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the medical equipment sector, highlighting potential growth opportunities due to recent procurement trends and market recovery [1]. Core Insights - The medical equipment sector has shown a significant recovery in procurement since Q4 2024, with expectations for financial performance to reflect this recovery by Q3 2025 [1]. - The technology sector is expected to benefit from the commercialization of tier 1 generative models, which could lead to a revaluation of core business segments [1]. - The beverage industry, particularly Dongpeng Beverage, is experiencing strong sales growth, driven by new product launches and market expansion [1]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is seeing increased demand, with a focus on expanding production capabilities and meeting the needs of major clients [1]. - The aerospace and defense sector is positioned for growth as it aligns with national strategic goals, despite facing some operational challenges [1]. - The chemical sector is witnessing a recovery in performance, supported by favorable domestic policies and improving pricing power [1]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see significant growth due to rising demand in high-growth areas such as electric vehicles and robotics [1]. Summary by Category Medical Equipment - The report emphasizes the strong bidding performance of companies in the ultrasound and endoscopy segments, with notable growth in market share expected in 2025 [1]. Technology - The report highlights the potential for revenue growth driven by the deepening of platform capabilities and international expansion strategies [1]. Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage is noted for its rapid sales growth, with new product lines contributing to a more robust revenue stream [1]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report indicates that the company is transitioning from a focus on panel testing to semiconductor equipment, with expectations for significant revenue growth in this area [1]. Aerospace and Defense - The report outlines the strategic importance of the aerospace sector in national planning, with a focus on achieving operational goals despite regulatory challenges [1]. Chemicals - The report discusses the positive outlook for the chemical sector, driven by improved pricing and demand recovery [1]. Rare Earth - The report notes a substantial increase in production and sales in the rare earth sector, driven by strong demand in emerging technologies [1].

Core Insights - The report introduces an innovative "Betting Against Bad Beta" (BABB) factor, which distinguishes between "bad" beta sensitive to cash flow shocks and "good" beta sensitive to discount rate shocks, improving upon the traditional "Betting Against Beta" (BAB) strategy [2][19][78] - The BABB strategy shows an annualized return of 15.0% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.09, significantly outperforming the BAB factor, which has an annualized return of 11.4% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 [5][21][78] Group 1: BAB Factor Improvement - The BABB factor enhances the BAB strategy by incorporating a dual-factor approach that includes both cash flow beta (bad beta) and traditional beta [3][19] - The theoretical foundation for beta decomposition is based on the ICAPM framework, utilizing VAR models to separate market risk into cash flow beta and discount rate beta [4][18] Group 2: BABB Factor Strategy - The BABB factor is constructed through a dual sorting mechanism based on beta and bad beta, allowing for better capture of the permanent risk premium associated with cash flow shocks [5][48] - Empirical results indicate that the BABB strategy achieves a six-factor regression alpha of 75 basis points, which is double that of the BAB strategy [5][21][59] Group 3: Robustness Testing - The report examines the sensitivity of the BABB strategy to different beta calculation methods, finding that BABB consistently maintains a higher Sharpe ratio compared to BAB across various estimation techniques [66][70] - The analysis of leverage and transaction costs reveals that while BABB incurs higher transaction costs due to its focus on small-cap stocks, it still delivers superior historical returns and alpha compared to BAB [72][75] Group 4: Summary - The BABB factor represents a significant advancement over the BAB factor by effectively distinguishing between good and bad beta, leading to improved risk-adjusted returns [78]