Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Adjusted PIN Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model addresses computational bias in the estimation of the Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) by introducing methodological improvements [13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Utilizes a logarithmic likelihood decomposition to resolve numerical instability issues - Implements an intelligent initialization algorithm to avoid local optima - Achieves unbiased estimation of the Adjusted PIN model [11][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The method effectively resolves computational bias and ensures robust estimation [13] 2. Model Name: Elastic String Model for Yield Curve Formation - **Model Construction Idea**: The model simplifies the parameters while maintaining explanatory power for yield curve dynamics [25] - **Model Construction Process**: - Driven by order flow shocks - Implements an elastic string model for the forward rate curve (FRC) - Reduces parameters by 70% while maintaining explanatory power [25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model efficiently captures cross-term structure shock propagation with a delay of ≤3 milliseconds [25] 3. Model Name: Bayesian Black-Litterman Model with Latent Variables - **Model Construction Idea**: Replaces subjective views with data-driven latent variable estimation to enhance portfolio optimization [39] - **Model Construction Process**: - Utilizes data-driven latent variable learning - Provides closed-form solutions for rapid inference - Improves Sharpe ratio by 50% compared to the traditional Markowitz model - Reduces turnover rate by 55% [39] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant improvements in portfolio performance and stability [39] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Adjusted PIN Model - **Key Metrics**: Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Elastic String Model for Yield Curve Formation - **Key Metrics**: Parameter reduction by 70% while maintaining explanatory power [25] 3. Bayesian Black-Litterman Model with Latent Variables - **Key Metrics**: - Sharpe ratio improvement: +50% - Turnover rate reduction: -55% [39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Intangible Asset Factor (INT) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Replaces traditional investment factors to enhance the explanatory power of asset pricing models [10][12] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Introduced as a replacement for traditional investment factors in the five-factor model - Improves the model's ability to explain anomalies in asset pricing [10][12] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates significant improvement in the explanatory power of the five-factor model [10][12] 2. Factor Name: News-Based Investor Disagreement - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures investor disagreement based on news sentiment and its impact on stock returns [11][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Utilizes the elasticity between trading volume and volatility - Predicts cross-sectional stock returns negatively, aligning with theoretical models [11][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively predicts stock returns and aligns with theoretical expectations [13] 3. Factor Name: Partially Observable Factor Model (POFM) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Simultaneously processes observable and latent factors to improve model fit and explanatory power [15][16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Develops a robust estimation method to handle jumps, noise, and asynchronous data - Introduces the HF-UECL framework for unsupervised learning of latent factor contributions - Validates the necessity of latent factors under exogenous settings and their correlation with observable factors under endogenous settings [15][16] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates the necessity of latent factors and their significant correlation with observable factors [15][16] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Intangible Asset Factor (INT) - **Key Metrics**: Improves the explanatory power of the five-factor model for asset pricing anomalies [10][12] 2. News-Based Investor Disagreement - **Key Metrics**: Predicts stock returns negatively, consistent with theoretical models [13] 3. Partially Observable Factor Model (POFM) - **Key Metrics**: - Validates the necessity of latent factors in high-frequency regression residuals - Demonstrates significant correlation between observable and latent factors [15][16]

- The report tracks the recent performance of the IPO market, focusing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market), ChiNext, and the Main Board, assuming all stocks are fully subscribed and sold at the average market price on the first day of listing, excluding lock-up restrictions[2][10] - As of August 1, 2025, the IPO yield for a 2 billion A-class account is 1.92%, while for a 10 billion A-class account, it is 0.61%[2][10] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 218.45%, and for ChiNext stocks, it is 227.38%, based on the performance of 20 recently listed stocks[2][20] - The median number of valid bidding accounts for STAR Market IPOs is approximately 3,062 for A-class accounts and 1,602 for B-class accounts, while for ChiNext IPOs, the numbers are 3,630 and 2,080, respectively[2][27] - The report calculates the theoretical full subscription income for each stock using the formula: **Full Subscription Quantity = Maximum Subscription Limit × Average Offline Winning Rate** **Full Subscription Income = (First Board Price - Initial Offering Price) × Full Subscription Quantity**[39][42] - The highest full subscription income among recent IPOs is 141.4 million yuan for Huadian New Energy, followed by 44.18 million yuan for Yitang Co., and 17.26 million yuan for Shanda Electric[42][45] - For A-class accounts, the cumulative IPO yield since 2024 is 5.65% for a 2 billion account, while for 2025 alone, it is 1.92%[47][48] - For B-class accounts, the cumulative IPO yield since 2024 is 4.64% for a 2 billion account, while for 2025 alone, it is 1.72%[51][52]

报告日期： 2025-08-05 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 国债期货 CTD 券可能切换吗？ ——利率周记（8 月第 1 周） 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 关注跨期价差进一步走扩的可能 近期在部分债券增值税恢复征收影响下，投资者担心国债期货的 CTD 券发生 切换，新券发行所带来的票息补偿会使得国债期货价格基准发生变化，进而产 生可能下跌，本文聚焦于此进行探讨。 首先，中金所对可交割国债的发行期限与剩余期限有明确定义。2 年期国债期 货的可交割券发行期限不得超过 5 年，剩余期限介于 1.5 年至 2.25 年之间；5 年期国债的可交割券发行期限不得超过 7 年，剩余期限介于 4 年至 5.25 年之 间，10 年与 30 年国债期货的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported FY25Q4 earnings with total revenue of $76.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 18.1%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3.45% [5] - Operating profit reached $34.3 billion, up 22.9% year-over-year, also surpassing Bloomberg expectations by 7.09% [5] - GAAP net profit was $27.2 billion, reflecting a 23.6% year-over-year growth, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 7.78% [5] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) amounted to $24.2 billion, higher than the expected $23 billion [5] - Azure revenue grew by 39% year-over-year, significantly above the expected 34%, contributing to a total Azure revenue of over $75 billion for FY25 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY25Q4 was $76.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 18.1% [5] - Operating profit was $34.3 billion, up 22.9% year-over-year [5] - GAAP net profit recorded at $27.2 billion, a 23.6% increase year-over-year [5] - CapEx for the quarter was $24.2 billion, exceeding expectations [5] Business Segments - Productivity and Business Processes generated $33.1 billion in revenue, a 15.7% year-over-year increase [5] - More Personal Computing segment reported $13.5 billion in revenue, up 9.2% year-over-year [5] - Intelligent Cloud segment revenue reached $29.9 billion, a 25.6% year-over-year increase, with Azure revenue growth of 39% [5][6] Future Guidance - The company expects Azure growth to be around 37% at constant currency for the next quarter [6] - For FY26, the company projects revenues of $321.5 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14.1% [7] - Net profit estimates for FY26 are projected at $114.8 billion, reflecting a 12.8% year-over-year increase [7]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: "Buy" (Maintained) [3] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Meta's revenue reached $47.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 5.99% [6] - Operating income was $20.4 billion, up 37.7% year-on-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 18.59% [6] - GAAP net profit was $18.3 billion, reflecting a 36.2% year-on-year growth, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 20.91% [6] - The company's CapEx guidance for the year has been raised to $66-72 billion, up from previous guidance of $64-72 billion [7] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the revenue from the Family of Apps (FOA) was $47.1 billion, a 21.8% increase year-on-year, also above Bloomberg consensus by 6.18% [6] - Advertising revenue was $46.6 billion, up 21.5% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 5.66% [6] - Reality Labs revenue was $400 million, a 4.8% year-on-year increase, but below Bloomberg consensus by 4.15% [6] Advertising Business Insights - Ad impressions grew by 11% in the quarter, a 6 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [7] - Average price per ad increased by 9%, a slight decline of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter [7] - AI has improved ad conversion rates, with Instagram ad conversion up by 5% and Facebook by approximately 3% [7] - User engagement on Facebook and Instagram increased by 5% and 6%, respectively, due to AI recommendation systems [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for Meta from 2025 to 2027 are $199.4 billion, $236.3 billion, and $275.3 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.2%, 18.5%, and 16.5% [7] - GAAP net profit projections for the same period are $76.4 billion, $82.1 billion, and $93.3 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.5%, 7.5%, and 13.7% [7] Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, expected revenue is $199.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2% [10] - Expected net profit for 2025 is $76.4 billion, reflecting a 22.5% year-on-year increase [10] - Projected EPS for 2025 is $29.6, with a P/E ratio of 25 [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of VAT collection on bonds has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on the bond market, but the overall impact is controllable. In the short term, the cost - performance of existing bonds and credit bonds has increased, and the bond market has risen stage by stage. In the long term, it may be unfavorable to the bond market. The probability of the bond market breaking through the previous low has decreased, and it may still fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Attention should be paid to the primary issuance rate of new bonds after August 8 and the impact of macro factors on the risk preference of the bond market [2]. - When summarizing the views of fixed - income sellers on the resumption of VAT collection, there are bullish, neutral/ bearish views. Half of the fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared with last week. The sentiment of fixed - income buyers is relatively cautious, and nearly 70% are neutral [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted index of the seller sentiment this week is 0.33, and the unweighted index is 0.47, both showing a decline compared with last week. The current institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 15 bullish, 14 neutral, and 1 bearish. 50% of the institutions are bullish, and 47% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index of buyers this week is 0.08, and the unweighted index is 0.11, with the unweighted index decreasing by 0.08 compared with last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 6 bullish, 19 neutral, and 3 bearish. 21% of the institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 11% are bearish [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include preventive redemptions of wealth management products and a decline in the scale of credit - bond ETFs. The preventive redemptions of wealth management products are due to the central bank's continuous net withdrawal and tightened capital, leading to selling pressure on credit bonds. The growth of credit - bond ETFs has slowed down, and the subsequent increase in ETFs may fall short of expectations [19]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week, with 10 bullish and 3 neutral. 77% of the institutions are bullish, and 23% are neutral [22]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of August 1, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts of treasury bonds have all increased, while the trading volume, open interest, and trading - to - open - interest ratio have all decreased [26][27]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On August 1, the turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds decreased, while the turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased [32][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of August 1, the basis and net basis of the main contracts have all narrowed, and the IRR has generally increased [41][44]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - The inter - delivery spread of the TL contract has widened, while the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed. Among the inter - variety spreads, except for the 2*TF - T contract, the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading enterprise in electric tool accessories with a diversified business layout that opens up growth space [4][6] - The global electric tool market is expected to recover, driving the development of components, with a projected 24.8% year-on-year increase in shipment volume in 2024 [4][41] - The company has established overseas subsidiaries in Vietnam, Mexico, and Singapore, enhancing its brand influence and facilitating the acquisition of overseas orders [4][49] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established in 1976, has transformed from a cement product factory to a leading precision machinery manufacturer, particularly in the drill chuck business, which has maintained a global market share of approximately 50% for 24 consecutive years [13][14] - The company has diversified its product offerings to include electric tool accessories, high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing, and new energy solutions [16][19] Electric Tools Market - The electric tools market is anticipated to rebound after two years of decline, with a significant recovery expected in 2024, driven by urbanization and consumption upgrades [39][41] - The company is positioned as a core component supplier for major global brands, with products exported to over 80 countries [48] New Energy and High-end Intelligent Manufacturing - The new energy business focuses on lithium battery packs and has expanded into various applications, including outdoor energy storage and electric vehicle battery swap stations in collaboration with NIO [51][52] - The high-end intelligent manufacturing segment includes advanced machine tools and automation solutions, with successful overseas sales of five-axis machining centers [56][57] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25.59 billion, 29.00 billion, and 32.16 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.22 billion, 3.65 billion, and 3.99 billion yuan [60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Figma's IPO on July 31, 2025, saw its stock price surge by 250%, closing at $115.5 per share, with a market capitalization of approximately $56.302 billion and a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 75x, marking it as the largest IPO in the U.S. for 2025 [3][12] - Figma is a cloud-based collaborative interface design tool that disrupts traditional design tools by emphasizing real-time collaboration and cross-platform compatibility, catering to designers, developers, and product managers [3][12] - The long-term growth logic for Figma includes a comprehensive product matrix covering the entire front-end workflow, significant user penetration potential, rapid growth among top-paying enterprises, and international market expansion as a key growth driver [4][12] Summary by Sections 1. Computer Industry Insights - Figma's successful market entry and high market recognition are expected to boost the rise of domestic design software and strengthen the demand for "self-controllable" solutions, catalyzing growth in the AIGC industry chain [5][12] - Figma Make, a core product, integrates seamlessly with Figma's workflow, allowing front-end engineers to quickly generate basic code directories from design drafts, enhancing efficiency [5][13] 2. Market Performance Review - The computer industry index decreased by 0.20% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.74% and the ChiNext Index by 0.54% [15][18] - Year-to-date, the computer industry index has increased by 13.76%, ranking 7th among 31 industry indices [15][18] 3. Technology Software Industry News - The report highlights various sectors including EDA, industrial internet, automotive intelligence, fintech, smart healthcare, and artificial intelligence, indicating ongoing developments and regulatory measures in these areas [24][25][26][29][31][32]

Investment Rating - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price increase across the supply chain, with silicon wafer, battery, and module prices rising, indicating a continued cost transmission from upstream to downstream [3][15][16] - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of large offshore wind projects across multiple regions, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth in the wind energy sector [4][21][25] - The implementation of mandatory national standards for energy storage is expected to enhance safety and market confidence, leading to significant growth in the energy storage sector [5][26][34] - The hydrogen energy sector is gaining momentum with new projects and government support, indicating a positive outlook for hydrogen production and application [6][35][40] - Increased capital expenditure forecasts from major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta are expected to drive demand for power equipment, presenting investment opportunities in the AIDC power equipment sector [7][41][44] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic - The report notes that the photovoltaic sector has seen a 2.08% decline in performance recently, underperforming the market [14] - Prices for silicon materials have stabilized with slight increases, while silicon wafers and battery prices continue to rise, indicating a positive trend in cost transmission [15][16] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the third quarter of 2025, with expectations of demand decline due to market policy changes and potential impacts from U.S. tariffs [16][20] Wind Power - The report details ongoing large-scale offshore wind projects, including a 280MW project by China General Nuclear Power Group and an 800MW project in Dalian, indicating strong growth in the sector [4][21][22][23] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies with low valuations and those benefiting from offshore wind developments [25] Energy Storage - The introduction of the GB 44240-2024 standard is expected to enhance safety and market growth, with significant increases in installed capacity reported [26][27][34] - The energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in commercial applications, with a notable increase in installations in Henan province [33][34] Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses the construction of a large-scale green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia, indicating international collaboration and investment in hydrogen technology [35][39] - The hydrogen sector is included in the central bank's green finance support directory, which is expected to facilitate funding and development [38][40] Power Equipment - Microsoft and Meta's increased capital expenditure forecasts are expected to positively impact the AIDC power equipment sector, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities [41][44] - The report suggests that power equipment remains a critical component for economic growth, with various segments identified for potential investment [44]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - OpenAI has announced the establishment of the first "Stargate" data center project in Narvik, Norway, with an initial capacity of 230 MW and plans to expand by an additional 290 MW, aiming to deliver 100,000 NVIDIA GPU clusters by the end of 2026 [4][5][37] - Major food delivery platforms, including Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com, have collectively announced measures to curb disordered competition in the industry, emphasizing the need for fair competition and the reduction of excessive subsidies [4][12] Summary by Sections Market Review - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.94%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.74%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.75%. The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a decline of 4.94%, while the Nasdaq Index decreased by 2.17%. The media index increased by 1.11%, and the AI index rose by 1.36% [3][24]. AI Sector Developments - OpenAI's data center project in Norway is expected to be a significant AI initiative in Europe, with an investment of approximately $1 billion from Nscale and Aker for the initial 20 MW phase [4][5]. - Domestic AI advancements include Xiaomi's browser upgrade to incorporate AI search capabilities and ByteDance's release of the experimental Seed Diffusion Preview model, which significantly improves code inference speed [6][37]. Semiconductor Industry - Samsung has confirmed that its Exynos 2600 will be the first chip manufactured using 2nm technology, enhancing AI capabilities in devices [39][41]. Smart Driving - Li Auto has launched its first six-seat electric SUV, the Li i8, priced between 321,800 to 369,800 CNY, featuring an upgraded VLA architecture for advanced driver assistance [10][41]. E-commerce and Local Life - The recent announcements from food delivery platforms indicate a shift towards rational competition, with expectations of reduced subsidy intensity leading to improved profitability [12][37].