Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% YoY), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% YoY), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% YoY and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [4][5] - The company expects revenues of 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for the same years [7][10] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall revenue reached 13.8 billion (YoY +16%), slightly above consensus estimates by 0.22% - Operating profit was 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), exceeding consensus by 7.34% - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion (YoY +3%), surpassing consensus by 8.99% [4] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion (YoY +23%), above consensus by 1.39% - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion (YoY +8%), slightly above consensus by 0.20% - Vacation business revenue was 0.9 billion (YoY +7%), below consensus by 5.90% - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion (YoY +12%), above consensus by 4.36% - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion (YoY +33%), slightly below consensus by 0.96% [4] International Business Growth - The overseas OTA platform's booking volume increased by 60% YoY, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, largely due to strategic positioning and visa policy benefits - Inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2% YoY, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where hotel orders increased by over 240% [4][5] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion, with YoY growth rates of +3%, +16%, and +14% [7][10]

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Since May, credit bonds have performed well, especially long - term credit bonds. As of May 22, both the yield and credit spread of credit bonds have declined this month, with a divergence in short - and long - term trends. Long - term credit bonds are strong and have anti - decline properties [2]. - The strong performance of long - term credit bonds is due to the imbalance between supply and demand. The supply is relatively weak in May, while the configuration demand is growing. In June, the supply may increase, but the impact is expected to be limited. The demand for credit bonds is expected to continue, but potential changes in wealth management behavior around the mid - year point need attention [4]. - The strong performance of long - term credit bonds may continue in the short term, but the valuation fluctuation risk may increase. Factors such as the supply of credit bonds, the continuation of the "deposit transfer" phenomenon, and changes in wealth management behavior at the mid - year point should be focused on. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of 5 - year high - grade credit bonds and appropriately select urban investment bonds for credit sinking around 2 - 3 years [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The yield of 1 - year urban investment bonds with various implicit ratings has generally declined by 12 - 13bp, with about 7 - 8bp from spread compression and about 5bp from the decline in risk - free interest rates. The yield of 5 - year urban investment bonds has also declined, but the decline is less than the spread compression [2]. - In the secondary market, the trading of credit bonds has shifted from the short - end to the long - end. As of May 22, the proportion of credit bonds with a remaining term of less than 1 year (considering exercise) has reached a one - year low, while the proportion of those with a term of more than 3 years has reached 30%, the third - highest in the past year [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, May is a small month for credit bond issuance. As of May 22, the net financing scale of the five major types of credit bonds is less than 30 billion yuan. The change in approval and supervision policies also indicates weak supply [4]. - On the demand side, the loose capital situation highlights the configuration value of credit bonds. The seasonal increase in wealth management scale in April and the "deposit substitution" effect brought about by the reduction of deposit interest rates support the strong demand for credit bonds [4]. Outlook and Strategy - In June, the supply of credit bonds may increase due to the peak maturity, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. The "deposit substitution" effect may continue to drive the growth of wealth management scale and the demand for credit assets, but potential changes in wealth management behavior around the mid - year point need attention [4]. - It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of 5 - year high - grade credit bonds and appropriately select urban investment bonds for credit sinking around 2 - 3 years, and make comprehensive decisions based on the liquidity of individual bonds [6].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 24%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 362 million yuan, up 179% year-over-year, indicating improved operational conditions [6] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q2 due to its anniversary season, with major updates and new heroes planned [7] - The company reported a daily active user (DAU) of 107 million, a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, and a monthly active user (MAU) of 370 million, indicating a stable growth in core users [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.04 billion, 33.07 billion, and 36.26 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 1.82 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.832 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 19.1%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be -39 million yuan, showing a significant recovery in subsequent years [11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.09 yuan in 2024 to 9.18 yuan in 2027 [12] - The gross margin is expected to increase from 32.7% in 2024 to 39.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company's game business is showing steady growth, with a diversified content strategy [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 18.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 11.24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 32.0% and a net margin of 39.0%, up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year [4] Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q1 was 24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.1% [5] - Key titles contributing to revenue include "Identity V," which was a major income source, and several new games that performed well [5] - The company has a strong pipeline of new games, including "Destiny: Rising" and "Marvel: Secret Wars," enhancing its product matrix [5] AI and Education Strategy - The Youdao business is advancing its "AI-native" strategy, achieving a gross margin of 47.3% in Q1 [6] - The integration of AI into educational products is aimed at enhancing the user experience and driving intelligent transformation across various sectors [6] Music and Content Ecosystem - The cloud music segment achieved a gross margin of 36.7% in Q1, with a focus on community ecosystem development to enhance user engagement [7] - The platform is leveraging AI capabilities for song recommendations and content creation, enriching the creator ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.86 billion yuan, 118.78 billion yuan, and 124.09 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The adjusted net profit (Non-GAAP) for the same years is projected to be 38.81 billion yuan, 39.92 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company's game business is showing steady growth, with a diversified content strategy [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 18.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 11.24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 32.0%, with a net margin of 39.0%, up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year [4] Summary by Sections Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q1 was 24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.1% [5] - Key titles contributing to revenue include "Identity V," which was the main revenue driver, and several new games like "Marvel Showdown" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" performing well in the market [5] - Long-term operational games are showing stable performance, with titles like "Identity V" and "Naraka: Bladepoint" maintaining steady revenue streams [5] Youdao Business Strategy - Youdao's business is advancing its "AI-native" strategy, achieving a gross margin of 47.3% in Q1 [6] - The strategy focuses on AI-enabled products and services to drive intelligent transformation across various industries [6] Cloud Music Operations - Cloud Music achieved a gross margin of 36.7% in Q1, with a focus on community ecosystem building to enhance user engagement [7] - The platform is leveraging AI capabilities for song recommendations and content creation, enriching its creator ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.86 billion yuan, 118.78 billion yuan, and 124.09 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.81 billion yuan, 39.92 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan [8] - The company expects a year-over-year revenue growth of 8.1% in 2025, followed by 4.3% and 4.5% in the subsequent years [11]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 362 million yuan, up 179% year-on-year, indicating improved operational conditions [6] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q2 due to its anniversary season, with major updates and new heroes planned [7] - The company reported a daily active user (DAU) of 107 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a monthly active user (MAU) of 370 million, indicating a stable growth in core users [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.04 billion, 33.07 billion, and 36.26 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 1.82 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan [9] Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 26.832 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be -39 million yuan, showing a significant recovery in subsequent years [11] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS (NON-GAAP) of -0.09 in 2024, improving to 4.27 in 2025, 6.59 in 2026, and 9.18 in 2027 [13] - The gross margin is projected to increase from 32.7% in 2024 to 39.1% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [13]

Core Insights - The report presents a novel investment portfolio construction method that combines stock price momentum with hierarchical clustering (HC) to address the instability and concentration issues of Markowitz mean-variance (MV) portfolio weights [2][22] - The proposed Hierarchical Momentum (HM) strategy shows potential applicability in various domains such as stock portfolio construction, ETF portfolio construction, and asset allocation in the domestic market [2][22] Hierarchical Momentum Strategy - The HM strategy derives a distance function from the Pearson correlation coefficients between asset returns, using a bottom-up recursive approach to cluster assets based on proximity, resulting in a dendrogram [3][24] - At a certain height in the dendrogram, a horizontal cut is made to divide the tree into n clusters, identifying the assets with the highest momentum scores within each cluster while assigning zero weight to those with negative momentum scores [3][24] Empirical Results - The backtesting period spans from June 1997 to August 2022, utilizing a high-dimensional dataset from the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), which includes large-cap and mid-cap stocks from 23 developed and 24 emerging markets [5][43] - After accounting for transaction costs, the HM strategy outperforms all other strategies in terms of cumulative returns, average returns, risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe and Sortino ratios), and risk metrics (volatility and maximum drawdown) [5][55] - The HM strategy demonstrates improved stability in industry allocation compared to the Maximum Momentum (MM) and Threshold Momentum (TM) strategies, which are known for their potential large drawdown issues [5][56] Methodology - The HM portfolio construction method does not require the inversion of the covariance matrix, instead relying on a hierarchical clustering approach to reduce dimensionality and ensure sparse diversification [24][68] - The method involves two main steps: applying hierarchical clustering to create a distance matrix and then constructing portfolio weights based on the hierarchical structure and momentum scores [24][38] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of sparse diversification in constructing superior investment portfolios, particularly in high-dimensional environments where traditional methods may underperform [68][69] - The HM strategy effectively captures momentum premiums while mitigating risks associated with traditional momentum strategies, demonstrating its robustness across different economic conditions [68][69]

——4 月交易所及银行间托管数据点评 报告日期： 2025-5-21 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 债市机构已"全面上车" 上一次发生机构全面增配的时间点为 2024 年 1 月。回顾历史数据，我们 发现托管量的变化中广义基金与商业银行通常走势相反，债市表现偏强时 通常广义基金增持、商业银行减持，反之亦然，而机构全面增配可能说明 一方面其在趋势性行情下担心踏空风险；另一方面，4 月债券供给量实际 并不多，也反映了"先上车"的持券意愿。 5 月债市出现"小碎步"回调，波动已经明显降低，多数机构持券观望。 5 月初 10 年国债在中美联合声明后，由 1.63%逐步回调至 1.70%，上行 7bp，但该过程历经约 20 天，波动已经较此前（2-3 月）明显降低，说明 多数机构的持券意愿依然较强，债市多头并未出现瓦解趋势，从边际表现 上看二级高频交易数据也暂未出现明显抛压。 展望后市，在债市回调背景下不乏止盈资金，但最近一份托管数据显示目 前机构持仓意愿相对较强，目前机构行为依然对债市偏有利，对应行情或 是上有顶、下有底的窄幅震荡 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 160.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.2 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [5]. - The cloud computing business has shown strong momentum, with revenue growth exceeding 50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by AI and general server sales [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI, with projected revenues of 758.7 billion yuan, 955.8 billion yuan, and 1,195.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenues of 609.1 billion yuan, a 28% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 23.2 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [5]. - The projected financials for 2025 to 2027 include revenues of 758.7 billion yuan, 955.8 billion yuan, and 1,195.1 billion yuan, with net profits of 29.2 billion yuan, 35.5 billion yuan, and 45.1 billion yuan respectively [9]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 7.3% in 2024 to 6.3% by 2027, while ROE is projected to improve from 15.2% to 17.3% over the same period [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 700 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 63.49 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 81% [4][5] - In 2024, the company realized a total revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, up 17% year-on-year [4][5] - The company has seen rapid growth across various downstream sectors, particularly in automotive power management, which achieved a revenue of 85.51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 179% [5][6] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly from 2.57 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.34 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 307 million yuan to 704 million yuan over the same period [9] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 40% from 2024 to 2027, indicating consistent profitability [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.72 yuan in 2024 to 1.65 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [9] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has successfully expanded its product applications from mobile device power management to new fields, including automotive electronics, where it has made significant inroads with major automotive manufacturers [6] - The automotive electronics business is entering a new phase of rapid development, driven by increasing market demand and domestic substitution trends [6][7]