Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: How Has the Bond Market Broken Through Sideways Trading Historically? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of July)" [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market has been in a long - lasting sideways trading with low interest rates and extremely low volatility. From April to July this year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield oscillated between 1.60% - 1.70%, with a range of only 10bp, and the volatility on July 8 reached the lowest in the past 5 years [2]. - Historically, out of 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, 7 times the subsequent interest rates broke through downward and 5 times upward, with the sideways trading usually lasting about 1 month. A transition to a bull market typically requires a combination of increased economic downward pressure, monetary policy easing, and asset shortage, while a transition to a bear market needs factors like better - than - expected economic recovery, tightened monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, and regulatory impacts [3]. - The current trading theme in the bond market is unclear. On one hand, the strong GDP performance in the first half of the year makes investors expect no significant incremental policies in the short term, and recent consumption policies have made the bond market underperform. On the other hand, the current capital situation is in a balanced state, and the government bond supply pressure from July to August is not large and can be hedged by the central bank [4][7]. - A method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is to observe the significant cooling of investors' aggressiveness in non - interest - rate bond strategies. When investors' expectation of further interest rate decline weakens, their buying of non - interest - rate bonds decreases, especially in the case of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [7]. - Historically, the bond market breaking through sideways trading usually requires unexpected macro and policy factors. Currently, considering the long - term sideways trading, low interest rates, and small fluctuations in the bond market, and the enhanced learning effect in the market this year, investors can focus on the aggressiveness of non - interest - rate bond strategies to measure the bond market's risk - preference expectations [10]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalog Historical Bond Market Sideways Trading and Breakthrough - The report sorted out 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, analyzing the sideways trading periods, 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuation ranges, reasons for sideways trading, post - breakthrough performances, and triggering factors [3][4]. Current Bond Market Situation - The trading theme is unclear, with factors from economic performance, policies, capital situation, and supply side affecting the market [4][7]. Micro - perspective Analysis - By observing the trading behavior of non - interest - rate bonds, especially the buying intensity of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds by brokers and funds, a method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is provided [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week, with a change of +1.77%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.08 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 1.40 percentage points [4] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] - The supply of third-generation refrigerants is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies, with demand remaining stable amid market expansion [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor, display, and photovoltaic sectors [6][8] - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance for the week of July 14-18, 2025, showed a rise of 1.77%, ranking 11th among sectors [22] - The top three performing sub-sectors were synthetic resins, membrane materials, and polyurethanes, while the bottom three were oil product trading, compound fertilizers, and organic silicon [24] Supply Side Tracking - A total of 155 companies in the chemical industry had their production capacities affected this week, with 1 new shutdown and 7 restarts reported [14] Key Industry Dynamics - A fire at Covestro's plant in Germany led to supply disruptions for key products, including TDI, due to a chlorine supply interruption [35] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced upcoming growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including petrochemicals [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company plans to invest 100 million RMB in Lif Biotechnology, acquiring a 7.0175% stake, which is a strategic move to position itself in the bio-based polyester industry chain [6][7] - Lif Biotechnology is a leading manufacturer of bio-based FDCA, a key material in the "green chemistry" sector, which has the potential to replace petrochemical-based PET in the long term [6][7] - The investment is expected to create synergies with the company's existing polyester business, despite short-term challenges such as the target company's losses and industrialization risks [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.344 billion, 1.845 billion, and 2.234 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.65, 9.21, and 7.61 [8] - Revenue is expected to grow from 67.091 billion RMB in 2024 to 81.610 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.5% [11] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 5.6% in 2024 to 7.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "固收周报 - 债市回调，但情绪依然乐观 —— 债市情绪面周报（7 月第 3 周）" [1] - Report Type: Fixed Income Weekly Report [10][16][28] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [3] Group 2: Core Views - Current bond market situation: Sellers are bullish, while buyers expect a sideways trend. Recent anti - involution and consumption policies, along with the strength of the infrastructure sector, have led to a weak performance in the bond market. After the major tax period, the capital market is generally stable, with a slight increase in interest rates [3]. - Outlook for the future: The probability of unexpected incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July is low. The market still expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading. There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff situation in August. It is expected that the fundamental situation in the second half of the year will not be negative for the bond market. At the micro - level, as large banks increase their net purchases of certificates of deposit and short - term treasury bonds, the steepening of the yield curve may continue. The bond market has been sideways for three months, and the use of various investment strategies by investors is quite saturated, with high market congestion, so the probability of continued sideways movement is high [3]. - Market sentiment: Nearly 60% of fixed - income sellers are still bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared to last week. Fixed - income buyers' views are generally neutral to bullish, and the sentiment index has remained unchanged for two weeks [3][4]. Group 3: Seller and Buyer Market 3.1 Seller Market - Sentiment index: The weighted sentiment index is 0.37, and the unweighted index is 0.54, down 0.1 from last week. 15 institutions are bullish, 10 are neutral, and 1 are bearish [11]. - Bullish institutions (58%): Key factors include lack of support on the commodity demand side, reduced sensitivity of the bond market to equities, and stable capital operation after the tax period [11]. - Neutral institutions (38%): Key factors include the neutral impact of the unfreezing of pledged bonds on the bond market, resilient economic data, and accelerated issuance of local government bonds in the future [11]. - Bearish institutions (4%): Key factors include that the unfreezing of pledged bonds does not mean the central bank will restart bond purchases, and the stock - bond ratio leads to an increase in bond market interest rates [11]. 3.2 Buyer Market - Sentiment index: The sentiment index is 0.13, remaining unchanged from last week. 5 institutions are bullish, and 13 are neutral [12]. - Bullish institutions (28%): Key factors include the resonance of slowing nominal GDP growth and monetary easing, average economic data, a friendly central bank attitude, and increased fiscal fund investment [12]. - Neutral institutions (72%): Key factors include that the impact of the tax period on the capital market has not completely ended, the stock - bond跷跷板 effect still exists, good production, investment, and export data, possible improvement in Sino - US relations, uncertainties in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, and the need for substantial news to break the deadlock [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Segments 4.1 Credit Bonds - Market trends: Financial management funds are entering the market, and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is expanding. The spread is expected to compress slightly due to the entry of financial management funds and the support from the central bank for science and technology innovation bonds [19][20]. 4.2 Convertible Bonds - Market view: Institutions are generally bullish this week. All 8 institutions hold a bullish attitude, supported by short - term supply - demand issues, the allocation demand of fixed - income + institutions, the urgency of conversion near maturity, and clause games [22]. Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 5.1 Futures Trading - Price: As of July 18, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.43 yuan, 105.99 yuan, 108.79 yuan, and 120.46 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.15 yuan from last Friday [24]. - Open interest: The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 1753, 4914, 5152, and 3403 hands respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume: From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 170.93 billion yuan, 117.46 billion yuan, 106.42 billion yuan, and 128.95 billion yuan respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume to open interest ratio: The trading volume to open interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 0.07, 0.07, 0.04, and 0.09 respectively compared to last Friday [25]. 5.2 Spot Bond Trading - Turnover rate: The turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds all decreased. On July 18, the turnover rates were 2.86%, 0.82%, and 5.14% respectively, down 3.17pct, 0.15pct, and 0.44pct from last week [32][43]. 5.3 Basis Trading - Basis: The basis of TS and T main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 0.003 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.003 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan from last Friday [41]. - Net basis: The net basis of TF and TL main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the net basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were - 0.01 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.05 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, - 0.002 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and - 0.08 yuan from last Friday [42][45]. - IRR: The IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends. As of July 18, the IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.56%, 1.65%, 1.37%, and 1.71% respectively, with changes of - 0.02%, +0.06%, - 0.39%, and +0.36% from last Friday [45]. 5.4 Spread Trading - Inter - delivery spread: The inter - delivery spread of T contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.07 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, and 0.18 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.03 yuan, +0.05 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and +0 yuan from last Friday [52]. - Inter - product spread: Except for the 3*T - TL contract, the inter - product spreads of other main contracts widened. As of July 18, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.86 yuan, 103.20 yuan, 300.93 yuan, and 205.90 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, +0.09 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan from last Friday [53].

Market Overview - The潮玩 industry in China is in a rapid growth phase, with low per capita spending on潮玩, indicating high growth potential[4] - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America show significant growth potential due to demographic advantages and rapid e-commerce penetration[4] - Mature markets in North America and Europe are experiencing a shift in consumer demand from traditional content IP to emerging image IP due to market saturation and changing media consumption habits[4] IP Lifecycle and Characteristics - Content IP generally has a longer lifecycle compared to image IP, with a higher ceiling for derivative value due to a complete worldview[4] - Image IP tends to experience rapid bursts of popularity but relies heavily on ongoing management for sustained value[4] Company Analysis - Pop Mart's growth is not limited by existing IP like Labubu; its core advantage lies in its ability to cultivate new IP efficiently, emphasizing an industrialized approach to the IP ecosystem[4] - Big Media's IP business, backed by Alibaba, has strong operational capabilities and can attract quality IP rights holders and downstream customers[4] - Blucol's strategy focuses on strong IP and low-price products, with significant growth potential in lower-tier markets[4] - Card Game's core advantage is its channel strength, with a focus on managing inventory and capitalizing on market trends[4] Investment Recommendations - The潮玩 industry in China is recommended for investment due to its rapid growth and low PEG ratios compared to global peers, with a focus on companies like Pop Mart (9992.HK), Big Media (1060.HK), Blucol (0325.HK), and Card Game (not yet listed)[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underperformance in copyright renewals, intensified industry competition, and production capacity issues[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among companies as they release their semi-annual earnings forecasts, with some companies showing remarkable growth while others face declines [3][19] - Key drivers for growth include market expansion, product upgrades, operational efficiency improvements, and effective cost control [21][24] Summary by Sections Semi-Annual Earnings Forecasts - Jiangxin Home reported a net profit of 410-460 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [21] - Aorijin expects a net profit of 850-960 million yuan for H1 2025, with a growth rate of 55%-75% [21] - Zhongshun Jierou anticipates a net profit of 140-160 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 59.85%-82.68% [24] - Saifutian forecasts a turnaround with a net profit of 2.55-3.80 million yuan, compared to a loss of 12.49 million yuan in the previous year [23] Market Performance - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the ShenZhen Component Index increased by 2.04% [25] - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 0.08%, ranking 21st among 31 sectors, while the textile and apparel index increased by 0.24%, ranking 19th [25] Key Data Tracking - Real estate data shows a significant decline in property transactions, with a 35.98% decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities [34] - The price of cotton in China is reported at 15,508 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [12] - The report indicates a notable increase in furniture sales, with June 2025 sales reaching 20.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [9]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data indicates that the economy will face pressure in the second half of the year, but policies are expected to further support the economy, particularly through the implementation of anti-involution policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating domestic consumption [2][3] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, reflecting economic resilience, but the marginal performance of various macroeconomic indicators weakened, indicating a need for policy support in consumption and real estate [3][15] - The central political bureau meeting at the end of July is expected to maintain a warm policy tone, focusing on anti-involution competition, stabilizing real estate, and stimulating consumption as key areas for policy efforts [3][15] Group 2 - The anti-involution policies are accelerating, with significant implications for industry competitiveness and profit distribution within the supply chain, necessitating close monitoring of policy expansion into various sectors [3][13] - The banking sector is expected to enter a period of volatility, with the anti-involution policies catalyzing upgrades and the technology sector likely to maintain its strong performance [5][26] - The recent decline in bank dividend yields is attributed to a significant decrease in cumulative dividend amounts over the past 12 months, but this pressure is expected to be largely absorbed, with a potential for a new high-dividend support trend if banks increase their dividend plans [6][26] Group 3 - The technology sector is showing signs of a potential peak, with five warning signs typically indicating a top, including valuation percentiles and maximum price increases, but current conditions suggest that the growth technology market may not have ended yet [5][26][48] - The performance of the TMT sector has shown significant divergence recently, with communication and electronics sectors performing well, while media has seen declines [5][27] - The analysis of previous AI-driven market cycles indicates that the current growth technology market may still have room to run, as not all warning signs are fully met [48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for three months. After the equal - tariff disturbance in early April, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond dropped to 1.65% and has since fluctuated between 1.65% and 1.70% [2][10]. - There are four changes in institutional behavior during the sideways period of the bond market, including changes in the behavior of large banks, the actions of funds and other asset management products, the allocation preferences of insurance institutions, and the change in the lending volume of 10 - year Treasury bonds [2][3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Four Changes in Institutional Behavior during the Sideways Period of the Bond Market** - Large banks not only increase their purchases of short - term Treasury bonds but also their demand for certificates of deposit. Their weekly demand for certificates of deposit has rebounded to over 100 billion yuan since late May, indicating improved liability - side pressure. After the mid - month tax period disturbance, the liquidity may further loosen [2][10]. - Funds extend the duration of their bond holdings, and asset management products such as trusts increase their purchases. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds has risen to 3.92 years, about 1 year higher than at the beginning of the sideways period, suggesting that non - bank institutions are holding bonds in anticipation of price increases [3][10]. - Insurance institutions have almost stopped buying Treasury bonds in the secondary market and mainly allocate local government bonds, especially 30 - year and 20 - year ones [3][11]. - The lending volume of 10 - year Treasury bonds has significantly declined, while the lending volume of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has remained flat. The decrease in Treasury bond borrowing by securities firms may be due to limited space for reverse arbitrage strategies in the futures market [3][11]. - **Yield Curve**: The yields of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have generally declined. For Treasury bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 2bp, the 3Y about 2bp, etc. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y yield dropped about 1bp, the 5Y about 2bp, etc [12]. - **Term Spread**: The spread between Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds has increased. For Treasury bonds, the term spread has generally widened; for China Development Bank bonds, the medium - and long - term spreads have widened [15][16]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It has dropped to 107.09%. From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the leverage ratio first increased and then decreased during the week [19]. - **Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase this week was 7.2 trillion yuan, with an average daily overnight trading volume accounting for 88.54%. The average daily trading volume decreased by 0.97 trillion yuan compared with last week [25]. - **Liquidity**: Banks' net lending has fluctuated upwards. As of July 18, the net lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.18 trillion yuan; the average daily net lending of joint - stock banks and city and rural commercial banks was 0.77 trillion yuan, and they had a net borrowing of 0.75 trillion yuan on July 18 [29]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds remained at 2.87 years (de - leveraged) and 3.22 years (leveraged). On July 18, the de - leveraged median duration was the same as last Friday, while the leveraged median duration increased by 0.01 year [42]. - **Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (leveraged) remained at 3.92 years, and the median duration of credit - bond funds (leveraged) rose to 2.99 years, an increase of 0.01 year compared with last Friday [46]. 3.4 Comparison of Category Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: It has generally narrowed. The 1Y spread narrowed by 5bp, the 2Y by 7bp, etc [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - term implied tax rate has widened, while the medium - and long - term rates have shown differentiation [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance On July 18, the lending concentration of the active bonds of 10 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, and 30 - year Treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while that of the second - active bonds of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds showed a downward trend. Except for securities firms, the lending concentration of all other institutions increased [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 410-460 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [3] - The growth in performance is attributed to continuous optimization of market layout, product structure upgrades, improved internal operational efficiency, and effective control of period expenses [3] - 78% of the company's products are exported to the US via Vietnam, indicating limited impact from reciprocal tariffs [3] - The company is positioned as a significant ODM supplier in the global smart electric sofa and bed industry, with a robust overseas capacity layout and an integrated supply chain [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.379 billion, 4.141 billion, and 4.785 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.6%, 22.5%, and 15.6% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 902 million, 1.094 billion, and 1.268 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 21.3%, and 15.9% respectively [4] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 4.14, 5.03, and 5.83 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 18, and 15 [4]

Key Insights - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant growth of the A-share ETF market, with a year-on-year increase of 81.6% in 2024, indicating a growing influence on the A-share market [1][11][5] - The report draws comparisons with mature ETF markets in the US, Japan, and Taiwan to provide insights for the future development of A-share ETFs [1][11] Group 1: Origin of ETFs - ETFs in the US, Japan, and Taiwan primarily originated from the need to stabilize or rescue capital markets, while A-share ETFs emerged from strategic financial product innovation aimed at enhancing market efficiency [2][12][21] - The first US ETF was launched in 1993 to prevent market crashes, while Japan's first ETF was introduced in 1995 to revitalize the stock market after a prolonged downturn [19][21] Group 2: Growth Correlation with Market Performance - There is a notable positive correlation between ETF growth rates and stock market performance across different regions, indicating that high ETF growth often coincides with rising stock markets [3][12][40] - In the US, significant ETF growth periods were associated with substantial gains in major stock indices, while similar trends were observed in Japan and Taiwan [27][31][38] Group 3: Trends in ETF Types - A global trend towards broad-based ETFs is evident, with increasing proportions of broad-based ETFs in the total ETF market across the US, Japan, and Taiwan [4][43][48] - In the US, the proportion of broad-based ETFs has risen from 45% in 2010 to 65% by 2024, while in Japan, over 95% of the top ETFs are broad-based [43][48] Group 4: Future Development of A-share ETFs - The A-share ETF market is expected to continue growing, with broad-based ETFs likely to dominate, and regulatory authorities increasingly using ETFs as tools for market stabilization [5][12][51] - The report anticipates that dividend-focused ETFs may gain popularity among individual investors, and technology sector ETFs are expected to be overweighted in future allocations [5][12][51]