每日晨报 2025年6月 13 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 美国 5 月 PPI 环比上涨 0.1% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:等待美国通胀温和上行,注意企业也承担了部分涨价--5 月美国 CPI 数据。全年来看,关税下的美国价格走势可能有以下几点特征:(1)从短期 的 CPI 和 PCE 价格数据来看,关税造成的涨价尚不明显,但我们认为这更多 是统计抽样和部分抢进口形成的库存所导致的涨价滞后,高频数据显示涨价已 经发生。(2)尽管通胀将在 2025下半年显现,但我们认为考虑关税的情况下 CPI 的年均同比增速将由 2.4%提升至 3.1%左右,高点可能为 3.4%, 2026 年 中开始可能回落至2.5%左右的范围,其"暂时性"并不阻碍美联储在年内考 虑降息。(3)从对企业的调查来看,企业也将负担部分关税成本,这一方面 意味着消费者价格上行压力缓和,另一方面企业利 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the significant performance of high-volatility strategies, with a cumulative increase of over 27% year-to-date, indicating strong market recovery and strategy effectiveness [2][4] - The report emphasizes the strategic transformation of Huaxi Biological, a leading global hyaluronic acid supplier, which is expected to benefit from domestic consumption upgrades and the growing demand for life health products [7][10] - The mechanical industry shows a mixed performance, with a decline in domestic excavator sales but a positive export growth, suggesting a resilient long-term outlook supported by government initiatives [12][15][16] - The beverage sector, particularly beer companies, is exploring diversification into non-alcoholic beverages, which is seen as a crucial growth strategy for future revenue streams [18][22] Group 1: High-Volatility Strategies - The report details the performance of various strategies, with low-price enhancement, improved dual-low, and high-price high-elasticity strategies yielding returns of 1.5%, 2.7%, and 4.7% respectively during the last period [2][3] - Year-to-date performance for these strategies shows returns of 4.5%, 16.6%, and 27.3%, outperforming the benchmark [2][3] Group 2: Huaxi Biological - Huaxi Biological is positioned as a global leader in bioactive materials, focusing on synthetic biology technology and a comprehensive industry chain [7][10] - The company is expanding its product matrix to include various bioactive materials, enhancing its market presence in medical and nutritional products [8][9] Group 3: Mechanical Industry - In May, domestic excavator sales decreased by 1.48%, while exports grew by 5.4%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12][14] - The report notes that the overall export of engineering machinery remains stable, with significant growth in exports to Africa and South America [14][16] Group 4: Beverage Sector - Domestic beer companies are actively expanding into beverage markets, with notable initiatives from brands like Yanjing and Qingdao Beer [18][19] - The report suggests that while beverage business contributions are currently low, they represent a vital growth avenue for beer companies in the long term [22]

每日晨报 2025年6月11日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 周二美股三大指数均上行，纳指领涨美股大 模 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 策略:稳定币概念股投资展望。稳定币概念股投资展望:(1)自中国香港《稳 定币条例草案》通过以来, [HK]稳定币指数(887779.WI)经历了先涨后跌的 行情,成交活跃度大幅提升。5月21日至6月2日,IHK]稳定币指数累计上 涨了 84.77%, 但 6 月 3 日至 6 月 6 日回调了 15.86%, 因此 5 月 21 日至 6 月 6 日累计上涨 55.47%。 (2) A 股稳定币指数 (8841912.WI) 行情略微滞后于 港股稳定币指数，波动幅度也小于港股。5 月 26 日至 6 月 5 日，A 股稳定币 指数累计上涨 35.51%, 6 月 6 目回调 2.83%。 (3 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Senate passed the "GENIUS Act" on May 19, 2025, which stipulates that only federally or state-approved entities can issue stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold at least $1 in compliant reserves for every $1 stablecoin issued [2][4][5] - Hong Kong's Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance" on May 21, 2025, which mandates that any entity issuing fiat-backed stablecoins must apply for a license from the Financial Management Commissioner [10][12] Group 2: Uses and Impacts of Stablecoins - Stablecoins facilitate payments and settlements, reducing transaction difficulties and fees, thus enhancing international trade [13] - The demand for stablecoins will shift towards the underlying assets they are pegged to, such as U.S. Treasury bonds for USD stablecoins, which may strengthen the dollar's international position [13][17] Group 3: Investment Outlook for Stablecoin-Related Stocks - The Hong Kong stablecoin index saw a cumulative increase of 55.47% from May 21 to June 6, 2025, despite a short-term pullback [26][30] - The A-share stablecoin index increased by 35.51% from May 26 to June 5, 2025, with a subsequent decline of 2.83% [36][42] - The listing of Circle, the issuer of USDC, on the NYSE on June 5, 2025, resulted in a significant stock price increase, with a first-day gain of 168.48% [25]

网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 BAH A 2025年6月10日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 中国5月 CPI 同比下降0.1% 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:核心 CPI 延续改善,PPI 同比降幅走阔 -- 5 月物价数据解读。CPI 低 位运行,PPI 仍将承压:年内 CPI 将呈现"V"型走势,预计全年 CPI 同比增 速持平,二、三、四季度增速分别为 0、-0.2%和 0.4%。年内 PPI 改善程度或 有限,PPI同比无法转正,预计全年 PPI 同比-2.3%,二、三、四季度增速分 别为-3.1%、-2.5%和-1.4%。 新能源智造:加大财税政策支持,大模型加速在制造业落地——具身智能产业 ● 链跟踪(3)。最新观点:1)主机:新参与者持续涌入,基于场景应用的新品 比例提升。中短期我们看好具备细分场景快速落地能力的主机厂，长期看好: 1综合技术积累深厚、产品生态格局好的龙头企业;② ...

Export Data Summary - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Imports totaled $212.9 billion, showing a decline of 3.4%, compared to a previous decline of 0.2%[1] - The trade surplus reached $103.2 billion, an increase from $96.18 billion in the previous month[1] Trade Dynamics - Tariff fluctuations have disrupted global trade, contributing to the decline in export growth[1] - The "grab export" effect has provided some resilience, with container throughput increasing by 1.4% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year in May[1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 34.5% year-on-year, while exports to the EU increased by 12%[1][12] Sector Performance - Integrated circuits and automotive exports showed strong growth, with integrated circuits up 33.4% and automotive exports including chassis up 13.7%[3][19] - Labor-intensive product exports declined, with a notable drop in mobile phone exports by 23.2%[3][19] Future Outlook - The overall export growth for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, influenced by tariff impacts and global trade fragmentation[24] - Continued demand for Chinese products in ASEAN and EU markets is expected to support export resilience[25]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI fell by 0.1%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.1%[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, widening from a previous decline of 2.7%[2] - Energy prices, particularly crude oil, significantly impacted the PPI, with oil extraction prices down by 5.6% and refined oil product prices down by 3.5%[3] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.1%, indicating weak demand and limited PPI improvement potential[2] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - Food prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables and pork prices decreasing by 5.9% and 0.7%, respectively[6] - Non-food prices also decreased by 0.2%, influenced by a 3.8% drop in gasoline prices[7] - Hotel accommodation and travel prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with hotel prices reaching a ten-year high for this period[6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall supply of pork is expected to remain sufficient in June, with demand still in a seasonal lull[10] - The global grain production forecast for 2025/2026 is expected to reach a record high, stabilizing food prices[27] - Consumer confidence remains cautious, impacting spending and limiting core CPI recovery potential[25]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act on May 19, 2025, officially incorporating USD stablecoins into the "digital dollar" system, marking a significant milestone for cryptocurrencies and indicating a potential explosive growth for stablecoins in the future [2][3] - The introduction of stablecoin legislation in the U.S. is seen as a victory for technological innovation, with implications for the digital economy and Web3, as it aims to modernize the U.S. payment and financial systems [2][3] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - The 2025 ASCO annual meeting showcased a record number of Chinese innovative drugs, with 74 abstracts accepted, including 34 oral presentations, indicating a strong performance in the oncology sector [25][26] - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a prolonged adjustment period, with overall valuations at low levels, and public fund holdings being underweight, suggesting a potential for sustained recovery and structural opportunities in the innovative drug sector [28] Group 3: Communication Industry - The commercial rollout of hollow-core fiber optics is expected to accelerate, driven by cost reductions and confirmed demand, with significant procurement projects announced by China Telecom [34][38] - Hollow-core fiber optics can potentially overcome two major physical limits in traditional solid-core fibers, significantly enhancing transmission capacity and reducing latency, which opens up vast application prospects in various high-demand scenarios [36][37] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Stone Technology (688169) is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international business development and attract more attention from overseas investors [40][41] - The company is currently focusing on expanding its market share in the cleaning appliance sector, particularly in the vacuum cleaner and floor scrubber markets, despite concerns over the sustainability of government subsidy policies [43]

核心观点: 分析师 杨超 策略研究 · 周度报告 中美贸易关系缓和,港股三大指数集体回暖 2025年06月08日 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07, 关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25, 4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值修 复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02, 2025 年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23，港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13，地方两会对 A 股投资结构有哪些启示? 2025-02-04，春节假期热点跟踪：海外市场多变局，国 内 ...

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of June 6, 2025, subway passenger volume growth is 1.39% year-on-year, but down 3.67% month-on-month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in May reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase month-on-month[1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of travelers increased by 26.6% compared to 2019, while travel income grew by 8.6%[1] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - As of early June, the operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 83.54%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production fell to 41.95%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of pure alkali production increased by 2.19 percentage points to 80.76%[1] Price Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.72% week-on-week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.52%[1] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.6% and 3.53% respectively during the week[3] - The PPI showed a mixed trend, with copper prices rising by 3.97% while aluminum prices fell by 0.51%[1] Fiscal and Investment - A total of 176 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 934 billion yuan[2] - The issuance progress of local special bonds (including debt relief) reached 49.4% as of June 7, 2025[2] - The investment in infrastructure is expected to rise as cement shipment rates and asphalt operating rates recover[2] Economic Data - The US economy is showing signs of slow down, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for May[3] - Non-farm employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.24%[3] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate decreased to 1.9%, indicating marginal economic improvement[3]