Group 1: Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) and A-shares (A股) shows significant fluctuations, with a peak of 30% for Tianrun Technology (天润科技) on July 25, 2025[8] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of July 25, 2025[6] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for companies listed on the North Exchange varies significantly across industries, with some sectors showing a PE as high as 516.07[12] Group 2: Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks on July 25, 2025, include Tianrun Technology with a 30% increase and a market capitalization of 29.19 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the worst-performing stock, Jikang Technology (基康技术), saw a decline of 12.56% with a market capitalization of 52.76 billion CNY[9] - The average daily change for the North Exchange was notably higher than that of the A-share market, indicating a more volatile trading environment[7] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The report highlights risks including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition[13] - Market volatility remains a significant concern, impacting investor sentiment and stock performance across various sectors[13]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first half of 2025, total revenue growth for the fiscal accounts was -0.6%, an improvement from -1.3% previously, while total expenditure growth increased to 8.9% from 6.6%[2] - The revenue-expenditure gap reached a new high for 2023, indicating a proactive fiscal approach in the first half of the year[2] Structural Improvements in Revenue - General public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to Q1[5] - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with a cumulative growth rate of -1.2%, improving from -1.6%[5] - Non-tax revenue growth fell to 3.7%, significantly below the five-year average of 10.8%[5] Land Revenue Recovery - Government fund revenue saw a cumulative growth rate of -2.4%, an improvement from -6.9% in the previous period, primarily driven by a rebound in land sales in June[19] - Local land revenue growth narrowed to -6.5%, compared to -11.9% previously, influenced by increased supply of quality land in core cities[19] Special Bonds and Expenditure Support - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 30% for the second fiscal account, up from 16% previously[23] - A total of 2.16 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds were issued in the first half of 2025, marking a 45% increase year-on-year[23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the liquor sector, specifically focusing on the white liquor segment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant market value held by public funds in white liquor stocks, indicating strong investor confidence in this sector [3][4]. - It provides a detailed analysis of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the white liquor sector, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical trends [5][11]. - The report also discusses the proportion of active and index funds invested in white liquor stocks, showcasing the growing interest from various types of investment funds [6][10][12]. Summary by Sections - **Public Fund Holdings**: The total market value of public funds holding white liquor stocks is reported at 5,000 million yuan, reflecting a robust investment landscape [4]. - **P/E Analysis**: The report includes a P/E-TTM analysis for the white liquor sector, indicating a current P/E ratio that is competitive within the market [5][11]. - **Investment Fund Composition**: The report details the percentage of active and index funds that are heavily invested in white liquor stocks, with active funds showing a notable increase in their holdings [6][10][12].

行业点评报告 · 化工行业 "反内卷"浪潮来袭,化工景气有望筑底回升 2025 年 07 月 24 日 核心观点 化工行业 | | | 分析师 霍启迪 ☎：010-8092-7677 网：zhaiqidi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060004 孙思源 网: sunsiyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070004 相对沪深 300 表现图 2024-07-24 沪深300 基础化工 50% -50% 资料来源：iFind，中国银河证券研究院 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件:7月24日,国家发展改革委、市场监管总局联合发布《中华人民共和 ● 国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》，向社会公开征求意见。 0 政策整治"内卷式"竞争,化工行业有望走出周期底部。近年来,受产能快 速扩张、需求增速放缓等因素影响,我国包括化工行业在内的部分领域供需失 衡问题愈发显著,企业为抢占份额低价无序竞争,盈利空间被大幅压缩。2024 年、25Q1 基础化工板块销售毛利率分别为 17.4%、17.6 ...

—— 2025Q2 白酒板块基金重仓持股分析 维持 刘来珍 图5:白酒板块 PE-TTM 资料来源：公募基金季报, Wind,中国银河证券研究院 图4：主动型和指数型基金重仓白酒股市值占其股票投资市值比（%） ① 。 ② ③ ① ② 银河证券|CGS 行业跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 图1:公募基金重仓持有白酒股市值(亿元) ■持股总市值(亿元) 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 资料来源：公募基金季报，Wind，中国银河证券研究院 行业跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 主动型基金 =提数型基金 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 资料来源：公募基金季报, Wind,中国银河证券研究院 图6:帝亚吉欧(美股)P/E-TTM 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图3： 主动型基金和指数型基金重仓白酒股市值 ■ 主动型基金 ■指数型基金 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 资料来源：公募基金季报, Wind, 中国银河证券研究院 · 1STD pe_ttm 80.0000 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Hainan Mining [7][50]. Core Views - Hainan Mining is focusing on three main sectors: iron ore, oil and gas, and new energy, with a strong resource base and a stable shareholding structure [9][12][50]. - The company has shown resilience in its iron ore business, maintaining high profit margins and expanding its oil and gas operations globally [7][9][38]. - The new energy segment is being developed through lithium mining and hydroxide production, with significant projects underway [7][44]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 45.18 billion, 54.61 billion, and 62.93 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.13%, 20.86%, and 15.25% [2][51]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 7.64 billion, 8.55 billion, and 9.64 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.12%, 11.97%, and 12.67% [2][51]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 20.20x, 18.04x, and 16.01x, indicating a premium compared to peers [50][52]. Business Layout - Hainan Mining has a stable shareholding structure with Fosun Group as the controlling shareholder, focusing on strategic metal and energy mineral exploration, development, and sales [9][12]. - The company’s revenue composition for 2024 is expected to be 48.41% from oil and gas, 37% from self-extracted and processed iron ore, 10.50% from iron ore trading and processing, and 4.08% from other businesses [7][15]. - The iron ore segment has shown strong performance with a gross margin of 45.77% for self-extracted and processed iron ore, and 10.94% for trading and processing [7][15][37]. Growth Drivers - The iron ore business is the cornerstone of Hainan Mining, leveraging advanced mining technologies to maintain high efficiency and profitability [7][32]. - The oil and gas segment has seen continuous growth, with significant contributions from the Bajiao gas field and Malaysian oil fields [7][38]. - The company is actively investing in lithium mining and hydroxide production, with projects in Africa and plans for significant production targets in the coming years [7][44][45].

Macro Overview - The core focus for the second half of the year is to consolidate the positive economic situation while addressing prominent issues such as low prices, declining investment growth, and continuity in consumption policies. The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, exceeding expectations [2][3][4] Fixed Income Strategies - In the recent period, strategies such as low-price enhancement, improved dual-low, and high-price high-elasticity recorded returns of 2.6%, 2.3%, and 4.8% respectively, outperforming the benchmark of 2.4%. Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 9.7%, 21.3%, and 38.4% against a benchmark of 10.3% [12][13][14] Agriculture Sector - The pig farming industry shows a recovery in profitability, with July pig prices stabilizing after a decline. The average price in July was 14.96 yuan/kg, down 8% from the end of 2024. The focus remains on high-quality pig enterprises with good financial conditions [24][25][26] - The pet food sector is in a growth phase, with an increase in market share for quality enterprises. The export value of pet food in the first half of the year saw a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [24][26] Steel Industry - The commencement of the Yajiang hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost demand for basic and special steel. The project will require significant amounts of steel, estimated at 180,000 tons for basic materials alone [30][31][33] - The recent publication of the "Rural Road Regulations" is anticipated to release demand for infrastructure upgrades, further benefiting the steel sector [31][33] Investment Recommendations - For the agriculture sector, it is recommended to focus on high-quality pig farming enterprises and monitor cost changes closely. In the steel industry, the focus should be on leading enterprises that can benefit from infrastructure projects and capacity adjustments [26][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, active equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metals industry, with the market value of heavy holdings rising to 2.21% of total stock investment value, up from 2.18% in Q1 2025, marking two consecutive quarters of increases [3][5][4]. - The report highlights a structural adjustment in fund holdings, with significant increases in precious metals and rare metals sectors, while industrial metals were reduced [5][8]. - The report suggests that the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly aluminum, copper smelting, and lithium sectors, may become key targets for policy reforms in Q3 2025, leading to potential improvements in industry conditions and supply-demand structures [18]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the market value of heavy holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector accounted for 2.21% of total stock investment value, reflecting a 0.03 percentage point increase from Q1 2025 [4][5]. - The top ten stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector accounted for 73.31% of the total market value of heavy holdings, indicating a concentration in major companies [5][8]. Sector Performance - The report categorizes the non-ferrous metals sector into sub-industries, noting that the fund's heavy holdings in precious metals and rare metals increased, while industrial metals saw a decrease [8][18]. - Specific stocks such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Huayou Cobalt were highlighted as significant holdings, with notable increases in positions for companies like Guangsheng Nonferrous and Haotong Technology [14][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the aluminum sector such as China Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and Tianshan Aluminum, as well as lithium companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [18]. - It also suggests that the gold sector, particularly stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, may see increased allocations from funds due to favorable market conditions [18].

Regulatory Framework - RWA policies are evaluated across six dimensions: ownership mechanism, circulation restrictions, licensing thresholds, tax environment, stablecoin adaptation, and asset structure compliance[11] - The regulatory intensity varies significantly, with some regions emphasizing strong regulation and safety, while others focus on innovation and pilot programs[16] Global Comparisons - The United States, United Kingdom, and Japan maintain high regulatory barriers, reflecting a "strong regulation, safety first" approach, with scores indicating high institutional density and limited innovation space[17] - In contrast, Singapore, UAE, and South Korea adopt a "innovation-oriented, pilot-first" strategy, lowering entry barriers and fostering a flexible regulatory environment[17] Taxation and Incentives - Tax policies are becoming a critical variable, with regions like the EU and South Korea having higher tax burdens but stronger regulatory frameworks, while Singapore and UAE attract projects with low tax rates and flexible regulations[24] - The EU has not established a unified income tax law for crypto assets, leading to structural inconsistencies across member states, impacting the attractiveness of RWA development[36] Regional Practices - The EU employs a standardized regulatory approach through MiCA, ensuring cross-border operational predictability and compliance for RWA assets[32] - South Korea has significantly lowered entry barriers for RWA and stablecoin issuance, promoting rapid market growth and innovation[38] Hong Kong's Unique Position - Hong Kong combines strict licensing with low tax burdens, establishing a regulatory model that supports RWA development while ensuring investor protection[42] - The region's legal system recognizes virtual assets as property, facilitating the establishment of a compliant RWA ecosystem[47] China's Regulatory Stance - China currently restricts RWA to "on-chain registration, off-chain issuance," limiting the operational scope for digital assets within its jurisdiction[48] - The country emphasizes technological service over financial attributes in its asset digitization efforts, focusing on traceability rather than market circulation[49]

Key Insights - The report highlights the impact of the U.S. imposing discriminatory tariffs on ASEAN countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 40% starting August 1, 2025, affecting countries like Malaysia and Indonesia [2] - ASEAN's response to U.S. tariffs includes targeted negotiations for tariff exemptions, internal economic stimulus policies, and strengthening multilateral cooperation to mitigate risks [2][3] - The inclusion of Indonesia in the BRICS group marks a significant expansion, with BRICS now covering 46% of the global population and 35% of the global economy, enhancing its role as a platform for global South cooperation [3] Economic Cooperation - China and ASEAN are deepening their cooperation mechanisms amidst global uncertainties, focusing on the implementation of the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Action Plan and advancing negotiations for a new version of the free trade area [5] - The economic collaboration between China and ASEAN is centered around the digital economy, with significant activities in digital technology, artificial intelligence, and green transportation [5] Capital Market Dynamics - The ASEAN stock indices have shown slight increases, with Vietnam leading at a 7.09% rise, while the overall market sentiment remains stable due to supportive policies [4] - The report notes that the A-share market experienced a daily average trading volume of 1.55 trillion yuan, with a 3.35% increase compared to the previous week [8][9] - The securities sector is expected to benefit from ongoing government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting investor confidence, leading to an improved outlook for the sector [10]