证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年1月2日 大变局时代的核心资产：黄金、加密货币、铀 --2025年海外策略报告 证券分析师 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350124050014 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 ◼ 大势判断：主要政见相互矛盾，后续"特朗普交易"将分化 ➢ 特朗普在竞选中胜出后，市场全面开启"特朗普交易"。特朗普的主要执政方针包括减税（利好股市）、贸易壁垒（财政增收）、强储备货币地位&弱货币汇率（强 势美元）、低利率（降低经济成本），以及扩大油气开采（降通胀），市场短期走出了强指数、强美元、降利率、低通胀的走势，仿佛特朗普的执政方针会无死角 实现。但客观的看，减税、降息、加关税以及弱美元都指向通胀，而财政收缩又带来了经济衰退的风险，如果不顺利，接下 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [2][13][15]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transformed into the semiconductor sector, which has opened up new growth potential. It has established two main business segments: chip distribution and self-developed products, enhancing its growth ceiling [1][29]. - The dual-driven strategy of "distribution + products" focuses on the development of the semiconductor field, with self-developed products expected to create a second growth curve [2][12][70]. - The company has formed strategic partnerships with major players like SK Hynix and MTK, which strengthens its distribution business and customer relationships [12][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Successful Transformation into Semiconductors - The company, originally established in 1998 as a manufacturer of washing machine clutches, has shifted its focus to the semiconductor industry since 2019, following a takeover by cornerstone capital [1][23]. - The transformation has led to a significant increase in revenue from the semiconductor business, while traditional business revenues have decreased [29]. 2. Distribution Business and Self-Developed Products - The distribution segment is deeply integrated with leading brands and has established strong customer relationships with major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent [12][70]. - The self-developed product line, including enterprise-level SSDs and DRAM, is expected to see rapid growth, with projected revenues of 200 million, 400 million, and 800 million yuan from 2024 to 2026 [7][72]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 481 million, 529 million, and 653 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.38%, 9.87%, and 23.55% respectively [13][15]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated to be approximately 27, 25, and 20 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a valuation close to industry averages [13][15].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - December manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points (pct) month-on-month, but remains in the expansion zone[36] - Large enterprises manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, down 0.4pct; medium enterprises at 50.7%, up 0.7pct; small enterprises at 48.5%, down 0.6pct[22] - New orders and new export orders indices both increased by 0.2pct, while the import index rose by 2.0pct[28] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Developments - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.2%, an increase of 2.2pct from the previous month, indicating significant improvement in non-manufacturing sector[10] - Service industry business activity index at 52.0%, up 1.9pct, the highest since April; construction industry index at 53.2%, up 3.5pct[10] - The overall economic outlook is improving, with expectations for business development stabilizing and increasing[34] Group 3: Economic Policy and Future Outlook - Central economic work conference emphasizes the need for more proactive macro policies for 2025, focusing on fiscal policy and potential changes in U.S. tariffs[34] - The likelihood of economic stabilization is increasing, with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic policies and market conditions[34] - The bond market may face pressure due to increased government bond supply and potential economic recovery exceeding expectations[41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (first-time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the changes in domestic and foreign demand under new circumstances, awaiting the recovery of consumer demand [2] - The textile and apparel industry is expected to see growth opportunities in 2025, particularly in sports apparel and textile manufacturing [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Industry Development Review - Brand apparel faced uncertainties due to objective factors affecting industry development [3] - Textile manufacturing saw improved performance for enterprises due to external demand [3] - In November 2024, China's social retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with a cumulative increase of 3.5% from January to November [11] - The SW textile and apparel index closed at 1496.48 points on December 30, 2024, showing an upward trend in Q4 after a volatile Q2 and Q3 [19] 2. 2025 Industry Opportunity Analysis - The sports apparel market in emerging markets still has room for growth, with China's outdoor industry providing opportunities [4] - The running market in China is expanding, with market share concentrating among leading brands [4] - Textile manufacturing is seeing a concentration of orders towards leading manufacturers [4] 3. Key Coverage Targets - Anta Sports has a solid fundamental outlook with a projected PE of 16.1X for 2025 [5] - Li Ning is considered undervalued with a projected PE of 12.2X for 2025 [5] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading brands and the concentration of market share towards top players in the industry [58]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a strong potential for growth and profitability in the context of the new power system construction [64][67][84]. Core Insights - The company has a solid position in the transformer tap switch market, holding over 80% of the domestic market share and ranking as the second-largest manufacturer globally [64][67]. - The demand for tap switches is expected to increase significantly due to the acceleration of new power system construction and the need for high-voltage transformers [84]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a projected net profit growth of 17% to 21% from 2024 to 2026 [67][86]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the tap switch sector for over 30 years, establishing a robust industry position [1]. - Its main business includes the research, production, sales, and lifecycle maintenance of transformer tap switches, as well as contracting and operation of renewable energy power stations [2][3]. Market Position - The company has a comprehensive product matrix for tap switches, covering voltage levels up to 1000kV, and has a significant number of patents, enhancing its competitive edge [11][20]. - The domestic market for tap switches is concentrated, with the company, MR, and ABB holding over 90% of the market share for 110kV and above [13]. Demand Drivers - The construction of new power systems is expected to sustain long-term demand for tap switches, particularly as the country aims to increase renewable energy capacity [14][17]. - The company has successfully broken the foreign monopoly in the high-voltage tap switch market, particularly for products rated at 500kV and above [19]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from its core power equipment business reached 16.25 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 82.9% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 14.55% [64][97]. - The projected revenue growth for the power equipment segment is estimated at 16% to 14.6% from 2024 to 2026, with a maintained gross margin of 59% [67][86]. International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, with overseas revenue reaching 274 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of nearly 80% [25][65]. - The focus on localizing operations in key markets such as Turkey, Russia, and Brazil is expected to enhance responsiveness and market share [27]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to be 634 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.93%, and is expected to reach 881 million yuan by 2026 [67][86].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次) [14] Core Views - The company benefits from the high growth of wind and solar energy, with stable revenue growth and a steady gross margin of 67.28% in the first three quarters, despite an increase in expense ratios [14] - New policies for distributed photovoltaic and innovative business entities present opportunities for the company, particularly in power prediction products and virtual power plant operations [15] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 365 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 53 million yuan, up 2.69% year-on-year [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 100 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 163 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 19.24%, 30.68%, and 24.27% [5][17] - The operating revenue is projected to grow from 586 million yuan in 2024 to 784 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 28.44% and 23.06% [5][17] Market Dynamics - As of the end of Q3, China's installed capacity for solar and wind power reached 773 GW and 480 GW respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48.3% and 19.8% [1] - The company’s power prediction service revenue increased to 132 million yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a 3.3% year-on-year growth [1] Expense Management - The company is currently in a market expansion phase, with sales expenses on the rise; however, the overall expense ratio is expected to stabilize as stock incentive costs decrease [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [37]. Core Insights - The technology sector in the US experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 2.1% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 3.2% during the week [36][63]. - The cryptocurrency market is currently in a neutral sentiment zone, with the Fear and Greed Index at 54, indicating a balanced market mood [72]. - The report highlights significant movements in individual stocks, with top gainers including Lenovo Group (+12%) and BYD Electronics (+11%), while top losers included WeChat Group (-5%) and VERTIV (-4%) [36][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 4538.6, up 2.1%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.2 percentage points [63]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 3.2%, closing at 5123.0, also outperforming the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [63]. 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies slightly decreased to $3.34 trillion, down from $3.35 trillion the previous week [53]. - The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies was $123.15 billion, accounting for 3.69% of the total market capitalization [53]. - The report notes a net outflow of $378 million from cryptocurrency ETFs during the week, with only one day of net inflow [37][10]. 3. PayPal Mafia's Investment Empire - Key members of the PayPal Mafia, including Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, played significant roles in the recent US elections, which may influence the performance of their associated companies [18]. - The report suggests that the PayPal Mafia's investment strategies could lead to long-term gains, particularly in companies like TSLA, PLTR, and AFRM [18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" indicating that the industry stock index is expected to outperform the market benchmark index in the next six months [40]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent government policies aimed at enhancing the management of special bonds, which are expected to support major projects and economic development [64][70]. - The focus on urban infrastructure and resilience is highlighted, with specific recommendations to invest in companies involved in smart city infrastructure and construction [10][12]. - The report suggests that the construction sector, particularly state-owned enterprises, is poised for a value reassessment due to improved market conditions and management practices [41][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has issued guidelines to improve the market value management of central enterprises, focusing on compliance and performance evaluation [8][41]. - The report identifies key companies in the construction sector that are expected to benefit from these policies, including China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and others [41][71]. 2. Industry News Commentary - The report discusses the government's new policies on special bonds, which are designed to enhance funding for infrastructure projects and stimulate economic growth [64][70]. - It highlights the expected growth in urban infrastructure projects, particularly in resilient city development, with a focus on smart technologies [10][11]. 3. Company Dynamics Commentary - Several companies have announced significant contracts and projects, including China Energy Engineering's contract for a coal-fired power project worth approximately 12.816 billion yuan [58]. - Zhejiang Communications has proposed a stock incentive plan aimed at boosting performance over the next few years [81]. 4. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.95%, while the construction sector saw mixed performance, with some sub-sectors recording positive returns [21][65]. - It also mentions the issuance of municipal bonds, which totaled 38.487 billion yuan this week, indicating ongoing financing activities in the sector [53]. 5. Infrastructure Data Tracking - The report tracks the issuance of special bonds and municipal bonds, noting a cumulative issuance of 77,104.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.96% [75]. - It emphasizes the importance of these financial instruments in supporting infrastructure development and economic recovery [64][70].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies involved. Core Insights - The total bidding amount for the State Grid Headquarters in 2024 is 70.05 billion yuan, nearly double that of 2022, and represents a 5.8% increase compared to 2023 [1] - The top six equipment categories by bidding amount are combination electrical devices, transformers, cables and accessories, relay protection, communication equipment, and reactors. Except for transformers and relay protection, all other categories have shown a certain degree of growth [1] - Among listed companies, the top five by bidding amount are China XD Electric, Pinggao Electric, TBEA, Sifang Electric, and State Grid Information Communication. The bidding amount in 2024 relative to the total revenue in 2023 for companies like Changgao Electric, Pinggao Electric, and others exceeds 25%, indicating a significant impact on their revenue [1] - Companies such as State Grid Information Communication, Chint Electric, Changgao Electric, and Baiyun Electric have shown high growth rates in bidding amounts for 2024 [1] Summary by Sections 1. Bidding Overview - The total bidding amount for 2024 is 70.05 billion yuan, which is close to double the amount in 2022 and shows a 5.8% increase from 2023 [1] - The main equipment categories by bidding amount include combination electrical devices, transformers, cables and accessories, relay protection, communication equipment, and reactors, with most categories experiencing growth [1] 2. Company Performance - The leading companies by bidding amount include China XD Electric, Pinggao Electric, TBEA, Sifang Electric, and State Grid Information Communication [1] - The bidding amount for 2024 as a percentage of total revenue in 2023 for several companies exceeds 25%, highlighting the importance of these contracts for their financial performance [1] - Companies with notable growth in bidding amounts include State Grid Information Communication, Chint Electric, Changgao Electric, and Baiyun Electric [1] 3. Equipment Specifics - The report provides detailed bidding data for various equipment types, including transformers and combination electrical devices, showing trends in bidding amounts and quantities [1][12][18] - The bidding amounts for transformers in 2024 are projected at 56.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.73% increase from 2023, while the bidding amount for combination electrical devices is expected to reach 13.875 billion yuan, a 2.16% increase [12][18]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the official launch of the "Gift Giving" feature on WeChat Shop marks a significant development in the e-commerce landscape, allowing users to purchase products and send them directly to friends through WeChat [3][41][49] - The integration of WeChat Shop with WeChat Mini Programs and Video Account Shops enhances the platform's capabilities, providing a comprehensive solution for merchants [6][47][48] - In 2023, China's online retail sales of physical goods reached 13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [9][68] Group 2 - The report notes that the median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the food and beverage industry has decreased to 30.3X, reflecting market adjustments [38][82] - The overall market for consumer service stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange has seen a median decline of 8.97% in stock prices, with a notable decrease in total market capitalization from 794.91 billion yuan to 749.54 billion yuan [22][52] - The report emphasizes the emergence of new forces in the e-commerce sector, which are accelerating competitive innovation in operational models [12][68] Group 3 - The WeChat Shop platform offers a one-stop solution for merchants, including features for product management, order processing, and marketing tools, significantly improving operational efficiency [7][47] - The report discusses the shift in consumer spending patterns, with the proportion of per capita consumption expenditure to disposable income rebounding to 68.3% in 2023, after a decline in previous years [63][92] - The integration of social attributes with e-commerce in WeChat Shop creates a unique shopping model, enhancing user engagement and reducing customer acquisition costs [91]