证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 25 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 联系人 12 月进口煤量同比转正，价差扩大致进口短期回升。据海关总署数据，2025 年 12 月我国煤及褐煤进口 量为 5860 万吨，同比+11.9%，较 11 月回升 31.8pct；2025 年 1-12 月累计进口煤及褐煤 49027 万吨， 同比-9.6%，跌幅较 1-11 月缩窄 2.4pct。国内煤价于 11 月中旬快速回升，进口煤价格优势显著，订单 短暂增加，此外印尼将于 2026 年征收煤炭出口关税，一定程度上促使进口煤年底抢运，上述原因导致 12 月到港进口煤同比转正，但 12 月以来国内煤价显著下跌，进口煤价格优势已经显著缩窄，进口积极 性或再次下降，预计 2026 年 1 月进口煤同环比均有望下降。 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@hu ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the activity of the credit bond secondary market due to structural interest rate cuts and excess MLF operations, with a weekly transaction volume reaching 9,929 billion yuan, marking a high point since July 2025 [10][12]. - Vanke's 1.1 billion yuan bond ("21 Vanke 02") extension was approved with a high vote of 92.11%, providing a precedent for the handling of other extended bonds [12][15]. - The net financing amount for credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 185.1 billion yuan, an increase of 120.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with total issuance rising to 418.6 billion yuan [16][19]. Group 2 - In the primary market, the average issuance rates for AA city investment bonds, AA+ industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased significantly, while other credit bonds showed fluctuations within 10 basis points [20][21]. - The secondary market saw a 1,350 billion yuan increase in transaction volume, with the turnover rate for credit bonds showing slight fluctuations [22][26]. - Credit spreads for AA+ electronic and non-bank financial sectors expanded significantly, while the AA+ pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a compression of 6 basis points [34][49]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the yields on credit bonds have continued to decline, with various credit products experiencing a reduction in spreads, making coupon assets increasingly scarce [50]. - The report suggests that mid-to-short-term credit bonds will remain a preferred choice for bond funds seeking safety, particularly recommending a focus on 3-5 year bank capital bonds [6][50].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 25 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月23日 华源晨会精粹 20260125 固定收益 25Q4 理财资产配置有何变化——中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025 年）点评：截至 25 年末，银行理财市场存续规模 33.29 万亿元，较 25Q3+1.2 万亿 元，较 24 年末+3.3 万亿元。由于债券收益率处于历史低位，我们预计 26 年混合类 产品存续规模会持续回升。2026 年理财规模仍有望增长 3 万亿以上。截至 25 年末， 全市场一共有 191 家理财机构，其中有 159 家银行机构，32 家理财公司，较 25Q3 分别-22 家/持平。我们预计至 26 年底，理财市场或将向理财公司持续转移。25Q4 理财大幅增配公募基金，减配权益类资产和同业存单，债券投资占比处于近年低位。 低利率时代，25Q4 理财产品平均收益率走弱。2026 年债市行情可能好于预期。建 议关注超长债波段操作机会，建议重点配置 3-5Y 资本债以获取票息，超长债搓波段， 关注多资产投资机会。 风险提示。财政政策超预期发力，导 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid implementation of AI and smart hardware, highlighting the transition of domestic brands from followers to leaders in the global market. Companies like YingShi Innovation, Anker Innovation, and XGIMI are identified as key players [4][8] - AI technology is reshaping product definitions in the home appliance and smart hardware sectors, enhancing product performance and user experience while accelerating global expansion [8] Summary by Sections AI + Smart Hardware - The report focuses on the "redefining products" direction of AI + smart hardware, with domestic brands making significant strides in global markets. Companies such as YingShi Innovation, Anker Innovation, and XGIMI are highlighted as representatives of this trend [4][8] AI + Photography - YingShi's "YingLing" panoramic drone launched in December 2025 achieved over 30,000 units shipped in its first month, confirming its potential as a blockbuster product. AI technology is expected to lower creative barriers and optimize effects, driving growth in the smart imaging sector [9] AI + Office and Audio - Anker's collaboration with Feishu to launch the AI recording device aims to penetrate the business market by leveraging Feishu's enterprise customer resources. Additionally, Anker's Soundcore Sleep A30 headphones utilize AI to generate personalized sleep soundscapes, enhancing their practical performance [12] AI + Security and Energy Storage - Anker's Eufy Security system has achieved multi-dimensional recognition capabilities for humans, pets, and vehicles, enhancing home security management efficiency. The SOLIX V1 Smart EV Charger optimizes energy efficiency through AI-driven scheduling and gesture recognition [17] AI + Glasses - The report notes a surge in AI glasses products from companies like XGIMI and TCL, with a focus on lightweight and practical designs. The market is in a penetration acceleration phase, with diverse product definitions emerging [19] Market Performance - The home appliance sector saw a 2.0% increase in January 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.4%. Sub-sectors such as black appliances and kitchen appliances showed notable monthly gains of 13.4% and 5.4%, respectively [21][22] Key Data Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the Chinese yuan appreciated by 149 basis points against the US dollar, continuing its upward trend. The LME copper spot price was $12,921 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% but remaining at a high level [24][28]

证券研究报告 全球跨境电商前景可观，北交所拟上市公司千岸科技、尚睿科技发展自主品牌 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第四十九期（20260125） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2013-2024 年中国跨境电商市场规模 CAGR 约为 17%，跨境出口电商具备优势。根 据 PrecedenceRESEARCH 数据，2025 年全球跨境电商市场规模为 5512.3 亿美元， 预计从 2026 年的 6363.4 亿美元增至 2034 年的约 2 万亿美元，复合年增长率高达 15.44%。随着我国跨境电商市场规模的快速发展，跨境电商新业态对传统外贸高质 量发展的促进作用越发明显，根据网经社电子商务研究中心的数据，2024 年中国跨 境电商市场规模为 17.66 万亿元，2013-2024 年复合增速约为 17%，其中跨境出口 电商占据了我国跨境电商市场的大部分市场份额。根据 Cognitive Market Research 数据，北美跨境电商市场在全球跨境电商市场占据主导地位，2025 年市场销售收入 达 1.63 万亿美元，预计 2025-2033 年的复合年增长率为 17.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Qingju Technology, is a leader in the field of engineering consulting services, focusing on full-process engineering consulting and actively promoting digital transformation through AI technologies [4][5]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 2.71% year-on-year increase in operating income and a 1.04% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The engineering consulting industry in China is expected to grow due to the continuous expansion of fixed asset investment, with the number of engineering consulting firms increasing from 8,194 in 2019 to 16,536 in 2024 [5][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Qingju Technology has been focused on engineering cost consulting since its establishment in 2001 and has maintained a leading position in the domestic market. The company is also involved in engineering design, bidding agency, supervision, and project management [5][14]. - The full-process engineering consulting service is the main revenue source, accounting for over 96% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with a revenue growth rate of 4.53% [17][19]. 2. Industry Analysis - The engineering consulting industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size of engineering cost consulting increasing from 89.25 billion yuan in 2019 to 111.24 billion yuan in 2024 [34][60]. - The demand for full-process engineering consulting services is rising, with its revenue share in the engineering cost consulting sector increasing from 25.7% in 2018 to 32.3% in 2024 [62][66]. 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 191 million yuan, 216 million yuan, and 239 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.6, 16.5, and 14.9 [7][8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are expected to grow steadily, with operating income projected at 992 million yuan, 1.062 billion yuan, and 1.148 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 3.47%, 7.05%, and 8.14% respectively [6][8]. 4. Growth Strategy - The company is actively investing in two core projects aimed at enhancing service network layout and driving digital transformation, including the development of various information systems and platforms [30][31]. - Qingju Technology is leveraging advanced technologies such as AI, BIM, cloud computing, and big data to enhance its service offerings and drive innovation in the engineering consulting sector [9][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6][9]. Core Insights - Lingnan Holdings is a comprehensive tourism company with a national and diversified business development strategy, focusing on travel agency operations, hotel management, and related tourism industry services [5][11]. - The tourism market is showing strong recovery, with domestic travel expected to reach 5.62 billion trips in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [26][30]. - The company has completed a nationwide layout for its travel agency business, with over 200 stores across China, and is expanding its hotel business with new projects and rooms [5][40]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Lingnan Holdings operates as a major tourism industry platform, integrating travel, accommodation, and other tourism-related services, with a focus on innovation and capital management [5][15]. - The company is controlled by the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, ensuring a stable shareholding structure [16]. Business Performance - The company expects revenues of 4.967 billion, 5.602 billion, and 6.277 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.26%, 12.80%, and 12.03% [9][10]. - The travel agency segment is projected to contribute over 70% of the company's revenue, with significant growth anticipated in both domestic and outbound tourism [40][49]. Market Trends - The inbound tourism market is recovering rapidly, with inbound visitors expected to reach 131.9 million in 2024, a 60.8% increase year-on-year [30][33]. - The company is actively leveraging new policies to boost inbound tourism, including tax refund policies and visa exemptions [50]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of 135 million, 182 million, and 235 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of -10.22%, 35.04%, and 28.90% respectively [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 65.18, 48.27, and 37.45 for the next three years [9][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its hotel management and operation business, with a focus on brand development and strategic partnerships to enhance its market presence [55][70]. - Lingnan Holdings is diversifying its tourism offerings, including technology integration in travel services and expanding into duty-free operations [68][72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The supply-demand tension continues, with tungsten and tin prices breaking historical highs [4] - Rare earth elements are experiencing a supply tightness, leading to increased prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton [12] - Molybdenum prices are expected to stabilize due to cost support and improved supply-demand dynamics, despite a recent decline [23] - Tungsten prices are at historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases in long-term contracts [30] - Tin prices are strong due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin rising by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton [33] - Antimony prices are fluctuating, awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent increases noted [42] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium decreased by 1.39% to 1,420,000 CNY/ton [12][4] - The supply side remains tight due to policy and supply constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies has shifted from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices fell by 1.94% to 4,035 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices decreased by 1.90% to 258,500 CNY/ton [23] - The market sentiment is supported by a stabilization in international molybdenum oxide prices and reduced mine shipments [23] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 11.43% to 536,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.06% to 790,000 CNY/ton [30] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and slower production rates, while domestic demand remains stable [30] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 21.73% to 54,200 USD/ton [33] - Supply disruptions from key mining regions and strong demand from traditional and emerging sectors are driving price increases [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.26% to 160,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 1.42% to 142,500 CNY/ton [42] - The supply remains tight, and demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [42]

证券分析师 证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 24 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 泡泡玛特 2.5 亿港元回购；美丽田园 25 年业绩预告表现亮眼 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.23） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 泡泡玛特 2.5 亿港元回购，彰显公司信心。公司近期公告回购 140w 股，合计耗资 2.5 亿+港元。公司低 位回购彰显公司经营信心。近期发布马年新品—马力全开搪胶毛绒，发布当日一分钟内多个平台均显示 "已售罄"。1 月官宣星星人新品系列怦然星动。泡泡玛特新品表现及品牌势能持续强劲。老 IP 持续运 营，新 IP 逐步发力，产品形态从盲盒、毛绒拓展至可动玩偶、饰品等，带动品牌影响力持续破圈。公司 作为中国潮玩行业的头部企业，具备 IP 玩具全产业链运营能力，公司通过出众的 IP 创造、运营能力及渠 道端多样的消费者触达能力持续高质量发展，且伴随公司海外业务逐步扩大、产品海外影响力不断 ...