证券研究报告 | 金工专题报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升 ——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析 投资要点： 主动权益基金规模萎缩，含权债基发行热情高涨 2025 年四季度，公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金规模发生明显切换： 投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上季度规模缩减 1823 亿 元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出，向中低风险的含权 债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基的新发热度升高， 发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。 证券分析师 主动权益基金 2025 年四季度主动权益基金对港股的配置热情明显下降，从 2025 年二季度的 20.44%持续降低到四季度的 16.47%；对于创业板的配置意愿增强，由 2025 年一季 度的 13.46%抬升至 20.85%。 相比 2025 年三季度，主动权益基金显著增配周期板块，周期板块占比升至 28.31%， 环比增加 4.95pct；大金融板块占比由三季度的 4.57%提升 ...

Fixed Income - The secondary market for credit bonds has seen significant activity due to structural interest rate cuts and excess MLF renewals, leading to a notable increase in trading volume [2][9] - The average issuance rate for AA city investment bonds, AA+ industrial bonds, and financial bonds has increased significantly, while the issuance rates for other credit bonds have fluctuated within 10 basis points [10] - The yield on credit bonds has continued to decline, with various types of credit bonds experiencing a reduction in spreads, making coupon-bearing assets increasingly scarce [12] Construction and Building Materials - Infrastructure investment has turned negative for the first time since 2004, with narrow and broad infrastructure completing 18.08 trillion yuan and 24.50 trillion yuan respectively in 2025, showing declines of -2.20% and -1.48% year-on-year [14][15] - New orders in the construction sector are characterized by stability among central enterprises, regional differentiation, and strong overseas demand, with major state-owned enterprises maintaining high order volumes [15][16] - The outlook for infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and recover gradually, supported by major strategic projects and policy measures [14] Aerospace Industry - SpaceX plans to launch its second-generation Starlink satellite communication system in 2027, which will significantly enhance capacity and data throughput compared to the first generation [21][22] - The global rocket launch service market is projected to exceed $50 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2023 to 2032 [21] - Six companies in the North Exchange's rocket industry chain have been identified, indicating a growing interest in this sector [21] Pharmaceutical Industry - The introduction of service price guidelines for surgical robots is expected to accelerate the development of the surgical robot industry in China [27][28] - The pharmaceutical market has shown mixed performance, with a focus on innovative drugs and medical technologies such as AI and brain-computer interfaces [25][29] - Key companies to watch include China Biologic Products, Shanghai Yizhong, and Fuyuan Pharmaceutical, among others, as they are expected to benefit from industry trends [30] Media and Internet - Kuaishou's AI video generation model has surpassed 12 million monthly active users, highlighting the growing importance of AI in the media sector [32][37] - The AI sector remains a critical narrative in the global industry, with significant investments in AI marketing, content generation, and e-commerce applications [32] - Companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are expected to lead in AI product development and commercialization [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The "overproduction check" effect continues to push up the coal price center, with demand fluctuations causing rapid price changes. From July to December 2025, domestic raw coal production fell for six consecutive months year-on-year, significantly improving the coal supply-demand balance. The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal rose from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 689 RMB/ton on January 20, 2026. In Q4 2025, despite significant monthly fluctuations in coal demand, the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 RMB/ton in Q3 to 765 RMB/ton in Q4, a rise of 13.8% [4][5] - The profitability of the sector is expected to rebound, with coking coal enterprises likely to see significant improvements. The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q4 2025 is reported at 765 RMB/ton, up 13.8% quarter-on-quarter. The long-term contract price for thermal coal also increased, with the average price for Q4 reported at 685 RMB/ton, up 2.3% [4][5] - Production levels are stable, with fluctuations among listed coal companies. The "overproduction check" policy strictly requires that annual production does not exceed announced capacity, impacting production levels in the second half of 2025. Major listed coal companies showed mixed production results in Q4, with China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reporting decreases of 5.0% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [4][5] - Cost control remains a key focus, although rising coal prices and year-end cost settlements may increase costs. In H1 2025, coal prices declined, prompting companies to shift from volume-based strategies to cost control. As coal prices rebound, costs are expected to rise slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 [4][5] - The sector's performance is expected to continue its positive trend into Q4 2025, with anticipated earnings growth. The coal price has shown a quarterly step-down trend, but Q4 2025 is expected to see a rebound in performance due to rising coal prices [4][5] Summary by Sections - **Performance of the Sector**: The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased significantly in Q4 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector's profitability [4][5] - **Production and Supply**: The "overproduction check" policy has led to a decrease in production, stabilizing the supply-demand balance [4][5] - **Cost Management**: Companies are focusing on cost control, with expectations of slight increases in costs due to rising coal prices [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The coal sector is expected to see continued performance improvement into 2026, driven by supply-side policy changes and price rebounds [4][5]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 民航春运有望景气，快递格局分化延续 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2026 年 1 月 19 日-2026 年 1 月 25 日） 板块表现： 2）中通快递召开 2026 全国网络工作会议，强调"行稳致远"。1 月 20 日，中通快 递召开 2026 年全国网络工作会议。会议剖析当前中通面临的挑战和机遇，展望行业 未来发展，明确了中通作为行业龙头对维护行业健康高质量发展的责任定位，要求 全网调优降本练好内功，旗帜鲜明带头"反内卷"。董事长赖梅松要求中通全网思 想统一，步调一致，以 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 26 日 产业债方面，2025 年 Q4 主动型债基重仓前五大产业债中，公用事业、非银金融、 交通运输等行业的主动型债基重仓前五大产业债持仓市值较高，AA、AA+、AAA- 重仓前五大产业债持仓市值减少较多。整体来看，主动型债基持仓较大的产业主体 主要为央企以及部分省级或直辖市产业主体，主体评级均为 AAA，其中主动型债基 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 2025Q4 债基信用配置有何变化？ ——债基 2025 年 Q4 季报分析 投资要点： 2025Q4，一、二级债基的可转债持仓规模均有所上升，其中 2025Q4 一级债基合计 持有可转债市值为 657 亿元，环比增加 27 亿元；二级债基合计持有可转债市值为 1,063 亿元，环比增加 33 亿元。但从可转债持仓市值占债券持仓市值的比例来看， 2025Q4 一级债基可转债持仓市值占比环比小幅上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing short-term supply pressure, with piglet prices continuing to rise. The industry is seeing a recovery in breeding sentiment as profits have turned positive, and the expectation of capacity reduction is weakening. The report anticipates that pig prices may stop declining and start to rise due to capacity control policies and decreasing costs for listed companies, leading to sustained profitability [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the potential for leading companies to increase their market share. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with improving return on equity (ROE) and sustainable performance [6][18] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and has a clear long-term growth path. The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to lead to significant growth [8][20] - The pet food sector shows a trend of increasing concentration, with head brands gaining advantages. The report notes a decline in export growth rates, particularly to the U.S., but anticipates a recovery in domestic sales [10][21] - The agricultural products sector is seeing a price recovery from the bottom, with attention needed on weather and import impacts. The report suggests that the agricultural sector has significant investment value due to its historical low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes [11][23] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The SW pig farming sector has seen a 1.1% decline, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction. The average weight of pigs at market is still high at 129 kg, with prices fluctuating around 13.03 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a normal holding level [4][16] - The report emphasizes the shift in industry policy towards protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus on technological content and innovative models [4][16] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with broiler prices at 3.8 yuan/kg, reflecting a 4.11% increase week-on-week. The report notes that the poultry industry is facing a contradiction of high production capacity and weak consumption, which may lead to market share gains for integrated companies [6][18] 3. Feed - The report recommends Hai Da Group, which plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 50% and has set ambitious sales targets for 2050. The company is expected to benefit from improved management and increased production capacity [8][20] 4. Pet Food - The pet food sector is seeing a decline in export growth, particularly to the U.S., where exports fell by 29.7%. However, the report anticipates a recovery in domestic sales, suggesting that companies focusing on domestic brands will have a long-term advantage [10][21] 5. Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector is witnessing a price recovery, with soybean meal prices rising by 0.6%. The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions and import situations, as well as the overall investment value of the agricultural sector due to its low valuations [11][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Infrastructure investment is experiencing a short-term bottoming out, with cumulative year-on-year growth turning negative for the first time since 2004. In 2025, narrow infrastructure (excluding electricity) completed 18.08 trillion yuan, down 2.20% year-on-year, while broad infrastructure totaled 24.50 trillion yuan, down 1.48% year-on-year. December saw significant declines, with narrow and broad infrastructure down 12.22% and 15.95% year-on-year, respectively. Despite this, major strategic projects are expected to continue, and infrastructure investment is anticipated to stabilize and recover gradually [5][12][22]. Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In 2025, narrow infrastructure investment completed 18.08 trillion yuan, down 2.20% year-on-year, while broad infrastructure totaled 24.50 trillion yuan, down 1.48% year-on-year. December saw a year-on-year decline of 12.22% for narrow infrastructure and 15.95% for broad infrastructure, with significant drops in water conservancy and public facilities management [5][12]. New Orders - New orders in 2025 showed a pattern of stability among central enterprises, with China State Construction, China Railway, China Electric Power, and China Energy achieving new orders of 4.15 trillion yuan, 2.75 trillion yuan, 1.33 trillion yuan, and 1.45 trillion yuan, respectively. Local state-owned enterprises exhibited more significant differentiation, with Shanghai Construction, Shaanxi Construction, and Pudong Construction seeing declines of 35%, 25%, and 23% year-on-year, while Sichuan Road and Bridge saw a substantial increase of 47% year-on-year [6][17]. Market Performance - The construction and decoration index rose by 1.88% during the week, with chemical engineering, steel structure, and international engineering leading the gains at 10.70%, 7.71%, and 4.49%, respectively. A total of 123 stocks in the construction sector rose, with the top five performers being Huawi Design (+51.92%), Zhite New Materials (+49.21%), and others [8][28]. Company Dynamics - Several companies reported significant changes in their financial performance for 2025. For instance, China Metallurgical Group expects a net profit decline of 76.28% to 80.73% due to ongoing losses in the real estate sector and substantial asset impairment provisions. In contrast, companies like Xinjiang Jiaojian anticipate a net profit increase of 50.14% to 125.22% [24][25].

Group 1 - SpaceX plans to launch the second generation of its Starlink satellite communication system in 2027, with overall capacity expected to increase by over 100 times and data throughput capability to improve by more than 20 times compared to the first generation [2][12] - The global rocket launch service market reached USD 16.45 billion in 2023 and is projected to exceed USD 50 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2023 to 2032 [2][25] - The upstream materials and core components account for 85%-90% of the total cost of rockets, with liquid engine manufacturing constituting approximately 50% of the total cost [2][18] Group 2 - The North Exchange technology growth stocks saw a median price change of +1.25% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with 108 companies (71%) experiencing an increase [2][44] - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the information technology industry increased by 7.40% to 83.6X, while the median market capitalization rose from CNY 2.68 billion to CNY 2.77 billion [2][50] - The North Exchange electronic equipment industry saw its median P/E ratio rise from 62.3X to 65.8X, with the total market capitalization increasing from CNY 148.39 billion to CNY 153.9 billion [2][52] Group 3 - The North Exchange rocket industry chain includes six companies: Xingtou Measurement and Control, Minshida, Suzhou Axis, Xingchen Technology, Kelong New Materials, and KQ Co., Ltd [2][40] - The average launch cost for China's satellite launches is expected to reach CNY 45,000 per kilogram by 2029, while SpaceX's Falcon 9 has a launch cost of CNY 20,000 per kilogram [2][38][37] - The commercial space market in China is projected to grow at an annual rate of over 20%, potentially reaching CNY 9 trillion by 2030 [2][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential acceleration of the surgical robot industry following the release of the service pricing guidelines by the National Medical Insurance Administration, which clarifies the pricing structure for surgical robot services and consumables [3][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, noting that the industry has completed a transition from old to new growth drivers, particularly in innovative drugs, which are expected to continue to perform well in 2026 [46][47] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as innovative drugs, AI medical technology, and brain-computer interfaces, which are anticipated to see significant advancements in 2026 [46][48] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 19 to January 23, the pharmaceutical index decreased by 0.39%, with an excess return of 0.23% relative to the CSI 300 index. The market was relatively stable, with a notable increase of 1.26% on Friday, driven by themes like brain-computer interfaces and AI medical technology [5][27] - A total of 330 stocks rose while 137 fell during the week, with notable gainers including *ST Changyao (+70.37%) and Hualan Biological (+32.21%) [27][28] Surgical Robot Industry - The surgical robot market is expected to benefit from the new pricing guidelines, which will enhance the clinical application of surgical robots and promote a sustainable business model [3][18] - The domestic laparoscopic robot market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.3% from 2024 to 2030 [9][15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong fundamentals and well-adjusted innovative drug stocks, including companies like Xinlitai, Zexing Pharmaceutical, and Hengrui Medicine, as well as medical technology firms like Yuyue Medical and Alibaba Health [5][49] - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in the export of CXO services and those with stable operations and low valuations that are expected to see fundamental changes in 2026 [5][46] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pharmaceutical industry will continue to improve marginally in 2026, driven by technological innovation and performance recovery in traditional sectors [46][47] - Key areas of focus include innovative drugs, AI medical technology, and the aging population's healthcare needs, which are expected to drive demand [46][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electronics industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 performance indicates a thriving AI industry driving the upstream supply chain into a growth cycle, with expected revenue of $33.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, primarily due to AI chip demand [4] - The semiconductor testing industry is entering an "inflation" cycle, driven by increased complexity in AI chips, leading to a rise in both demand and prices for testing services and equipment [4] - The global smartphone shipment volume for Q4 2025 is approximately 336 million units, with Apple and Samsung showing resilience against rising storage chip prices, while domestic Android manufacturers face significant sales pressure [4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Limited supply of H200 chips continues to be a pain point in the domestic market, with demand expected to diversify into a multi-layered structure [7] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang visited China, indicating potential strategic shifts in the semiconductor landscape [7] - Alibaba's T-Head semiconductor unit is planning for an independent listing, reflecting the growing importance of domestic chip design [7] - Baidu's Wenxin assistant has surpassed 200 million monthly active users, highlighting the competitive landscape in AI services [7] Weekly Market Analysis - The electronics sector saw a weekly increase of 1.39% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with integrated circuit packaging and testing, LED, and analog chip design leading the gains [9][12] Testing Industry Analysis - The semiconductor testing market is projected to grow significantly, with the global testing equipment market expected to reach $32.7 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 3.43% from 2025 to 2032 [19][23] - The demand for testing equipment and consumables is expected to rise due to the increasing complexity of AI chips, with testing times for AI chips expected to increase significantly [30][39] - The global probe card market is also experiencing growth, with a projected increase in revenue driven by the demand for advanced logic and high-performance memory testing [40][42] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include testing equipment manufacturers such as Huafeng Measurement and Control, Changchuan Technology, and testing service providers like Weicai Technology and Changdian Technology [45]