Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" due to steady performance growth and significant benefits from rising cobalt prices [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 58.941 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [7]. - Cobalt prices have surged significantly, rising from 170,000 yuan/ton to 410,000 yuan/ton, a 140% increase, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [7]. - The company is expanding its nickel business, with projects in Indonesia that could lead to substantial profit increases once nickel prices rebound [7]. - A strategic agreement with leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain is expected to enhance the company's long-term profitability [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 70.439 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.58% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 6.038 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 45.33% [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.18 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.41 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The main brand of the company has shown steady growth in Q3 2025, while the subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues to maintain rapid growth [7] - The company has a healthy inventory turnover of four to four and a half months, indicating stable retail sales despite external factors [7] - The company is expanding its presence in the outlet channel and overseas markets, enhancing its competitive edge [7] - The company is focusing on product iteration and category expansion to drive growth in high-end brands [7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by continuous R&D investment and a strong brand image [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 14,486.83 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.70% [6] - Net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,384.97 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.84% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 0.49 RMB [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.73% in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10.75 in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The "check for overproduction" policy has significantly improved supply and demand, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The domestic raw coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of -3.8% and -3.2%, respectively, resulting in a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [4] - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 RMB/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [4] - The rebound in coal prices is a key positive variable for Q3 performance, with the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal reported at 672 RMB/ton, a 6.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The report suggests that winter coal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply-side contraction and increased heating demand [5] Summary by Sections Section: Market Performance - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to effective supply-side policies, with a notable decrease in cumulative supply surplus from 96.29 million tons in the first half of the year to 14.96 million tons by the end of August 2025 [4] Section: Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal in Q3 2025 is projected to be 672 RMB/ton, reflecting a 6.5% increase from the previous quarter, while the long-term contract price slightly decreased by 0.7% [4] - The price of coking coal has also seen a significant increase, with the average price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1562 RMB/ton, an 18.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] Section: Production and Cost Control - The production of listed coal companies is expected to remain within approved capacity limits, with minor fluctuations anticipated. The impact of production on performance is expected to be limited due to the significant rebound in coal prices [4] - Cost control remains a primary focus for coal companies, with expectations that costs will stabilize in Q3 2025 following a period of significant reductions in H1 2025 [4] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding Group [5]

证券研究报告 有色金属 | 工业金属 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 23 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | 10 | 月 22 | | | | | 日 | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 4.31 | | | | | | | 一 年 | 高 | / ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary market of REITs has cooled down, with trading volume and turnover rate hitting lows since early 2024 after peaking in August. However, strategic placement yields are promising [2][3]. - Data center REITs are relatively resilient, while other sectors have performed poorly in the past month. Only a small number of projects have achieved positive returns [2][4]. - The issuance scale of REITs in the next year is expected to be between 50 - 75 billion yuan, with 25 - 35 issues. Other strategic investors are expected to be allocated 14 - 30.7 billion yuan through strategic placement [2][13][15]. - Based on historical performance after strategic placement lock - up expiration, the average annualized return of 45 REITs samples is 19.69%. In a pessimistic scenario, the annualized return can reach 8.20%, and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 31.18%. Investors are advised to focus on REITs with an issuance scale of 20 - 40 billion yuan and be cautious about transportation and industrial park REITs with poor underlying asset operations [2][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Recent REITs Market Overview - The trading volume and turnover rate of the REITs market have been shrinking since peaking in August, reaching lows since early 2024. The weekly trading volume from October 6 - 12 was only 702 million yuan, and the turnover rate was only 0.31% [2][3]. - Data center REITs are relatively resilient, with a decline of only - 0.03% in the past month. Other sectors, such as affordable rental housing (- 2.8%), warehousing and logistics (- 1.5%), and transportation (- 2.5%), have performed poorly. Only a small number of projects have achieved positive returns in the past one and three months [2][4]. 3.2 REITs Projects in the Review and Issuance Stages - As of October 15, 2025, there is 1 REIT project under review that has been accepted, 3 projects that have been queried, and 4 projects that have provided feedback. The accepted project is expected to receive the first - round query around the end of October, the queried projects are expected to enter the feedback stage in 2 - 3 months, and the projects that have provided feedback are expected to be approved within 1 month if there are no major corrections [7]. - As of October 15, 2025, there are 3 REIT projects in the issuance stage. Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT and CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT ended their fundraising on October 14 but have not been listed, with expected issuance scales of 1.584 billion yuan and 1.098 billion yuan respectively. Huaxia Anbo Warehousing and Logistics REIT was registered and became effective on September 23, 2025. It is expected that 3 - 4 new REIT projects will be launched by the end of the year [8]. - As of October 15, 2025, there are 12 REIT projects for expansion, new acquisitions, or other purposes in the review or approved - to - be - issued stage, which will provide additional market capacity for investors' new - share subscription or strategic placement strategies [9]. 3.3 Potential of REITs Strategic Placement Strategy 3.3.1 Market Capacity of REITs Strategic Placement Strategy - The REITs market is expected to expand further through asset - mixing expansions and the encouragement of private investment projects. The total issuance scale of REITs has approached 200 billion yuan, and the total market value has exceeded 200 billion yuan. The issuance scale in the next year is expected to be between 50 - 75 billion yuan, with 25 - 35 issues [12][13]. - The average subscription ratio of original equity holders and their affiliated parties for listed REITs is 38.21%. The average ratio of other professional institutional investors is 34.45%. Based on this, it is estimated that other strategic investors will be allocated 14 - 30.7 billion yuan through strategic placement in the next year [14][15]. 3.3.2 Return Calculation of Strategic Placement Strategy - Strategic placement is more suitable for large - scale, long - term funds. The holding - period return rate of strategic placement is affected by factors such as the annualized dividend rate, secondary - market price increase at the time of lock - up expiration, and the annualized cost of capital occupation [16][17]. - As of October 15, 2025, most of the 45 REITs that have been listed for more than a year can achieve a return of over 10% at the time of lock - up expiration, and nearly 80% can achieve positive returns. The average annualized return of all 45 REITs samples is 19.69%. REITs with an issuance scale of 20 - 40 billion yuan can achieve relatively high annualized returns with relatively controllable return fluctuations [18][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company continues to experience high revenue growth in external markets, with a focus on operational turning points in the future [4] - The company reported a revenue of 2.623 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 245 million yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [6] - The company is focusing on its core sanitary napkin products and optimizing its product structure to enhance profitability [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2,144 million yuan - 2024: 3,254 million yuan (growth of 51.77%) - 2025E: 3,866 million yuan (growth of 18.80%) - 2026E: 4,530 million yuan (growth of 17.17%) - 2027E: 5,271 million yuan (growth of 16.37%) [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2023: 238 million yuan - 2024: 288 million yuan (growth of 20.74%) - 2025E: 345 million yuan (growth of 19.84%) - 2026E: 452 million yuan (growth of 31.25%) - 2027E: 568 million yuan (growth of 25.51%) [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.55 yuan in 2023 to 1.32 yuan in 2027 [5] Market Performance - The company has seen robust growth in offline channels, with revenue from these channels reaching 1.624 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [6] - The company’s online channel revenue has declined by 10.2% due to short-term public sentiment and platform strategy adjustments [6] - The company is actively enhancing brand influence and expanding its consumer base through increased investment in brand building [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company shows strong growth momentum in its operational fundamentals, with a revenue of 13.433 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.57%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.77 billion yuan, up 37.45% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to benefit from the structural upgrade trend, with the major product U8 maintaining good growth momentum. The beer sales volume for the first three quarters was 3.4952 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, with an average price of 3,843.22 yuan per ton, up 3.13% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is expected to see continued profit elasticity from reform dividends, with a gross profit margin of 50.15% in Q3 2025, an increase of 2.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.55%, and a net profit of 668 million yuan, up 26% year-on-year [5] - The company’s cost per ton of beer in Q3 2025 was 2,125 yuan, a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, indicating continued cost benefits [6] Profitability Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.51 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 18, and 16 times [7][8] - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.64%, 5.46%, and 3.61% respectively, indicating stable growth [8] Market Position - The company is executing a major product strategy and enhancing its management system, which is expected to improve overall efficiency across the supply chain [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, with bond market offense favoring 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It anticipates the 10Y Treasury bond yield to return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield to reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield to move towards 1.9% [3]. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, China's economy showed resilience in a complex environment, with a GDP year - on - year growth rate of 4.8%, reflecting the phased pressure during the transformation from old to new growth drivers. Service consumption growth, manufacturing upgrading, and export resilience supported economic structural optimization, while negative fixed - asset investment growth and the continuous decline of real estate development investment highlighted the weakness of the traditional growth model. In Q4, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be key support measures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Aggregate - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience under double pressure, with GDP growing 5.2% year - on - year. In Q3, GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from Q2. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 5.8 trillion yuan, 36.4 trillion yuan, and 59.3 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%. The nominal GDP year - on - year growth rate dropped to 3.7% in Q3, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from Q2, and the divergence between nominal and real GDP growth continued [2]. 2. Price - The GDP deflator has been negative for 10 consecutive quarters. In the first three quarters, CPI decreased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, with core CPI performing well at a 0.6% year - on - year increase. In September, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for five consecutive months, the first time in 19 months to reach 1%. PPI decreased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the year - on - year decline has been narrowing in the past two months, with the decline in September narrowing to 2.3%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, and the month - on - month rate remaining flat [2]. 3. Consumption - In Q3, consumption growth continued to decline, and social retail sales in Q4 may continue to face pressure, while service consumption remained outstanding. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.2 trillion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has declined for four consecutive months. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January to August. Service retail sales maintained a year - on - year growth rate of over 5% since March 2025. In Q4 2025, consumption growth may face a high year - on - year base and continue to be under pressure [2]. 4. Investment - Fixed - asset investment has weakened for six consecutive months, with cumulative year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 1992 (excluding 2020). The decline in real estate development investment has expanded for seven consecutive months, being only slightly better than the extreme value in January - February 2020. Private investment has been negative for four consecutive months. Against the backdrop of local debt resolution and low general public budget revenue growth, the driving effect of infrastructure on the economy may continue to weaken, and the drag of real estate on the economy may persist [2][3]. 5. Exports - The year - on - year growth rate of exports exceeded expectations, possibly due to the low base in September last year. In the first three quarters, the total value of goods imports and exports was 33.6 trillion yuan, a 4.0% year - on - year increase. Exports increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. In September, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 4.0 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase. However, due to the possible increase in Sino - US trade frictions and high export growth rates in October and December 2024, there may still be pressure on foreign trade in Q4 [2][3]. 6. Industrial Added Value - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 6.2%, the same as that from January to August and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, it increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August and a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from September last year [2]. 7. Economic Outlook - In Q4, the downward pressure on the economy may increase. The use of policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may become more likely, and continuous attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [3]. 8. Bond Market - In September, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October, and recommends 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield will move towards 1.9% [3].

丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 美容护理 | 个护用品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 22 日 证券分析师 资料来源：公司公告，华源证券研究所预测 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：公司 25Q1-Q3 实现总营业收入 12.38 亿元，同比增长 19.28%；利润总额达 到 3.14 亿元，同比增长 3.3%；实现归母净利润 2.66 亿元，同比增长 1.98%。 联系人 产品方面，驱蚊品类增速较快。25Q3 驱蚊/婴童护理/精油三大品类分别贡献营收 1.32/1.46/0.43 亿元，同比分别+48.54%/-2.76%/-7.02%，驱蚊产品销售受登革热 驱动高增，婴童产品营收下滑原因我们分析或为市场竞争加剧叠加天气影响。 市场表现： 渠道方面，25H1 渠道新增与山姆渠道合作。公司产品在天猫、京东、抖音、拼多多 等电商平台保持较高的市场占有率，其产品及店铺在多个平台获得奖项，持续扩大 品牌影响力。此外，公司通过非 ...

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 饰品 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 22 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | 年 | 10 | | 日 | | | 2025 | 月 | | 21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 20.12 | | | | | | | | | 一 年 内 | 高 | 低 | | | 30.12/9.61 | | 最 | 最 | | | / | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 5,272.88 | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 4,796.62 | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | 262.07 | | | | | | | | | 资产负债率 ...