Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company's 2025 life insurance NBV shows resilience, and the dividend policy is positive [5] - In Q1 2025, the company's OPAT and NBV performance was strong, with a 2.4% year-on-year growth in OPAT to 37.9 billion yuan, despite a decline in group revenue and net profit [6] - The life insurance business remains a core pillar, contributing 71.7% of net profit and 70.9% of OPAT in Q1 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price on May 29, 2025, was 53.52 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 974,611.76 million yuan [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the group revenue and net profit decreased by 5.2% and 26.4% year-on-year, respectively, to 232.8 billion yuan and 27 billion yuan [6] - The life insurance business achieved a 34.9% growth in NBV, contributing to a 5% OPAT growth [6][7] Business Outlook - The life insurance capacity may face pressure in 2025, requiring strategic products to support sales [7] - The company expects to see rapid growth in its bancassurance market share, with a 171% year-on-year increase in NBV in Q1 2025 [7] - The NBV margin improved by 11.4 percentage points year-on-year to 28.3% in Q1 2025, indicating potential for further margin enhancement [7] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a positive dividend policy, with a commitment to increasing the absolute value of cash dividends annually [10] - The current dividend yield for A-shares and H-shares is 4.76% and 6.00%, respectively [10] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 135.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [11] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 7.42 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 7.2 [11]

Group 1: Fixed Income - The development of bond ETFs in China has gone through three stages: initial phase, slow growth, and rapid growth, with a total of 29 bond ETFs and a scale of 253.129 billion yuan as of May 9, 2025 [2][6] - The U.S. bond ETF market has matured since its inception in 2002, with significant growth during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and a current focus on broad-based bond ETFs [8][9] - The U.S. bond ETF market benefits from a combination of low interest rates, high credit premiums, and global investment opportunities, which have driven rapid growth [9] Group 2: Uranium Industry - The U.S. nuclear energy policy has undergone a significant restructuring, transitioning from policy expectations to tangible execution, which is expected to drive the uranium industry upward [11][12] - Key areas of focus include enriched uranium, small modular reactors (SMRs), and domestic uranium mining, with policies accelerating the transmission of benefits to corporate fundamentals [11][12] - The SMR sector shows strong price elasticity due to technological advancements and policy support, while the enriched uranium sector is positioned for growth driven by domestic production [14][15] Group 3: Utilities and Environmental Protection - China Resources Power, the only power entity under China Resources Group, has maintained profitability since its listing and has a market-oriented operational model [17][18] - The company plans to split its renewable energy segment for a secondary listing, which is expected to enhance its valuation significantly [19][20] - By the end of 2024, the renewable energy capacity will account for nearly 50% of the company's total capacity, with a strong profit margin compared to peers [18][20] Group 4: Metal New Materials - Salt Lake Co. has become the largest potash fertilizer and lithium extraction company in China, with production capacities of 5 million tons for potash and 40,000 tons for lithium [23][24] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in potash prices due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand increases [24] - The lithium extraction process has a significant cost advantage, with production costs projected at 36,500 yuan per ton, supporting stability during price downturns [25] Group 5: Electronics - Yangjie Technology is expanding its product matrix through both internal development and acquisitions, with a focus on power semiconductor recovery [27][28] - The automotive power device market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the electrification of vehicles, with a CAGR of 13% from 2022 to 2028 [28] - The company is actively developing IGBT chips and third-generation semiconductor products, with plans to launch domestically produced SiC modules by late 2025 [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in potassium fertilizer and lithium extraction from salt lakes, leveraging dual profit drivers from both sectors [8][11]. - The integration into China Minmetals Corporation's system is expected to enhance the company's capabilities and establish a world-class salt lake industry base by 2025 [8][11]. Company Overview - The company, based in Qinghai, is the largest potassium fertilizer and lithium extraction enterprise in China, with a potassium chloride production capacity of 5 million tons and lithium carbonate capacity of 40,000 tons as of the 2024 annual report [8][16]. - The company has a strategic focus on the comprehensive development of the Qarhan Salt Lake resources, establishing a circular economy model centered on potassium [16][21]. Potassium Sector - The company is the domestic leader in potassium fertilizer, with stable production and sales, and is expected to benefit from a recovery in potassium prices due to supply constraints [11][41]. - The global potassium fertilizer market is highly concentrated, with major producers controlling over 70% of the capacity, leading to a long-term reliance on imports for China [41][43]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable potassium chloride sales volume of 5 million tons annually from 2025 to 2027, with projected average sales prices of 2,750, 2,700, and 2,650 RMB per ton respectively [10][41]. Lithium Sector - The company is recognized as a low-cost leader in lithium extraction from salt lakes, with an anticipated increase in lithium production capacity due to ongoing projects [11][63]. - The report forecasts a steady growth in lithium sales volume, with expectations of 43,000 tons in 2025, 60,000 tons in 2026, and 80,000 tons in 2027 [10][63]. - The lithium market is expected to experience price stabilization in 2025, with projected average sales prices of 60,000, 71,000, and 80,000 RMB per ton from 2025 to 2027 [10][63]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.88 billion, 6.42 billion, and 7.17 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.2%, 9.0%, and 11.7% respectively [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 14, 13, and 12 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is planning to spin off its renewable energy segment for a listing on the A-share market, which is expected to enhance its valuation significantly [5][10] - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities and management mechanisms, which are crucial for navigating through market cycles [10][27] - The company has a solid track record, having never reported a loss since its listing, and has maintained a stable return on equity (ROE) [7][16] Financial Performance and Valuation - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 103,334 million HKD in 2023 to 131,238 million HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.48% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 11,003 million HKD in 2023 to 16,635 million HKD in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8, 6.6, and 6.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8] Renewable Energy Segment - By the end of 2024, the company's renewable energy capacity is expected to account for nearly 50% of its total installed capacity, with significant investments planned for further expansion [7][27] - The company has a competitive edge in unit profitability for its renewable energy segment, outperforming major competitors in terms of net profit [35] - The planned IPO of the renewable energy segment is anticipated to raise 24.5 billion RMB for new projects, which could lead to a valuation exceeding 150 billion HKD post-listing [38][43] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a unique market position due to its historical roots and strategic focus on both traditional and renewable energy sectors [14][19] - The operational strategy emphasizes a balanced approach to energy generation, with a significant focus on renewable energy development in regions with higher electricity prices [27][32] - The company’s management has effectively navigated market challenges, maintaining a strong performance even during periods of industry downturns [20][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The development of China's bond ETFs has gone through three stages and is currently in a period of rapid growth, with significant potential for further development. By referring to the US experience, measures such as enriching product supply, promoting pension investment, encouraging institutional investors, and applying innovative strategies can be taken to unlock this potential [1]. - The development of US bond ETFs has also experienced three stages and is now in a mature growth phase. Extreme economic environments, credit premium advantages, globalization opportunities, mature market mechanisms, and innovative strategies have contributed to their development [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Bond ETF Development History and Current Situation - **Development Stages**: China's bond ETFs have gone through three stages: the initial stage from 2013 - 2018, the slow - growth stage from 2019 - 2021, and the rapid - growth stage from 2021 to the present. As of May 9, 2025, there are 29 bond ETFs with a total scale of 253.129 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Product Structure**: As of Q1 2025, the scale ranking of different types of bond ETFs is credit bond ETF > policy - financial bond ETF > convertible bond ETF > treasury bond ETF > local government bond ETF. Interest - rate bond and credit bond ETFs account for 80.09% of the total scale. In terms of duration, the products with durations of 0 - 3 years and 7 - 10 years account for about 73.9% [12]. - **Investor Structure**: As of March 31, 2025, institutional investors hold 85.5% of the total asset - net - value scale, and individual investors hold 14.5%. Different types of investors have different preferences for bond ETFs. For example, insurance funds, securities investment funds, and other institutions mainly invest in policy - financial bond ETFs [20][32]. - **Investment by Wealth Management Products**: As of Q1 2025, the total scale of bond ETFs in the top - ten holdings of wealth management products is 598 million yuan, with credit bond ETFs having the largest scale at 257 million yuan, accounting for 42.95%. Among 61 asset - management institutions, 20 hold bond ETFs, and the top three in terms of holding scale are China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, ICBC Wealth Management, and Huaxia Wealth Management [35][39]. 3.2 US Bond ETF Development History and Current Situation - **Development Stages**: The development of US bond ETFs has gone through three stages: the germination stage from 2002 - 2006, the high - speed development stage from 2007 - 2009, and the mature growth stage from 2009 to the present. As of the end of 2024, the total asset scale of US bond ETFs is 1.8 trillion US dollars, accounting for 17% of the total US ETF scale [42][43]. - **Market Structure**: According to the Morningstar Category classification, US bond ETFs are divided into taxable bond funds and municipal bond funds. The four largest - scale bond ETFs are the overall bond market ETF, US government bond ETF, corporate bond ETF, and municipal bond ETF. The overall bond market ETF has a relatively high single - product scale, while different types of municipal bond ETFs have relatively small product quantities and scales [46][47]. - **Product Characteristics**: In terms of duration, products with durations of 3 - 7 years and 0 - 3 years have relatively large scales, accounting for about 78.60%. The average fee rate varies greatly, with the lowest being 0.17% for target - date bonds and the highest being 0.84% for non - traditional bonds. In terms of management style, as of April 30, 2025, index - type bond funds account for 44%, and actively managed bond funds account for 56% [52][56]. 3.3 Analysis of the Development Drivers of US Bond ETFs - **Macroeconomic Environment**: During the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis from 2007 - 2009, the continuously decreasing federal funds target rate, loose monetary environment, and investors' risk - aversion sentiment provided impetus for the development of the US bond market and bond ETFs. The scale of US bond ETFs soared from 34.6 billion US dollars to 107 billion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 76% [65]. - **Performance in the Low - Interest - Rate Fluctuation Period**: From 2010 - 2015, the scale of US bond ETFs continued to rise. Corporate bond ETFs have high credit premiums due to the high proportion of A, BBB, and BB - rated bonds in their underlying assets, and their average return rate from 2010 - 2015 was 5.12%. Global bond and emerging - market bond ETFs were more favored during this period, and the US government bond ETF had a relatively high return rate, with its scale increasing from 16.4 billion US dollars to 62.3 billion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.63% [68][77][78]. - **Regulatory Policies, Trading Mechanisms, and Allocation - Oriented Demand**: The US regulatory policies for ETFs have been continuously liberalized, with both openness and standardization. The operation mechanism is mature, and the market liquidity is good. The physical subscription and redemption mechanism operates smoothly. US investors are mainly driven by allocation - oriented demand, with long - term funds such as pensions being the main source of funds [81][82][84]. - **Application of Strategic Beta Innovation Strategy**: The Strategic - beta strategy has been applied to the US bond ETF field. The iShares US Fixed Income Balanced Risk ETF, launched in February 2015, seeks to balance interest - rate risk and credit risk, bringing higher risk - adjusted returns compared to traditional bond ETFs [86]. 3.4 Enlightenment of the Development History of US Bond ETFs to China's Bond ETFs - **Large Development Space**: There is a significant gap between China and the US in terms of the overall ETF volume and the proportion of bond ETFs. In the current low - interest - rate market environment, bond ETFs have great development potential [89]. - **Enrich Product Supply**: Expand high - yield and global - allocation products, such as expanding credit - sinking category ETFs, introducing global bond funds, and innovating underlying assets [91]. - **Promote Pension Investment**: Encourage more pension funds to enter the bond ETF field to drive long - term asset allocation and improve market maturity [94]. - **Encourage Institutional Investors**: Promote bank wealth management and bank self - operated funds to invest in bond ETFs, as bond ETFs have investment advantages for banks, such as lower risk - capital occupation, tax advantages, and being useful for liquidity management [95][96]. - **Innovate Strategy Application**: Apply the Strategic Beta strategy to build differentiated competitiveness, including strengthening quantitative capabilities, exploring "semi - active bond ETFs", and developing localized factor strategies [97].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the uranium industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the U.S. nuclear energy policy, transitioning from "policy expectations" to "execution realization," indicating a critical turning point for the nuclear industry chain [4][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of three recent executive orders that reshape the nuclear fuel supply, testing, and regulatory frameworks, which are expected to drive the industry forward [19][23] Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Nuclear Energy Policy Restructuring - The restructuring of U.S. nuclear energy policy is marked by the implementation of three executive orders that address the supply of nuclear fuel, testing and deployment of advanced reactors, and regulatory reforms [19][23] - The "Revitalizing the Nuclear Industry" executive order establishes a comprehensive policy framework for the production, procurement, and strategic reserve of HALEU/LEU/HEU, aiming to enhance domestic nuclear fuel capabilities [16][17] - The "Reforming Energy Department Reactor Testing" order aims to eliminate regulatory bottlenecks for advanced reactors, facilitating faster deployment and commercialization of new technologies [19][20] - The "Reforming the Nuclear Regulatory Commission" order focuses on reducing approval times for new reactors to under 18 months, significantly improving project timelines and investment returns [22][23] 2. Performance of Key Segments - The report identifies three main segments within the nuclear industry: SMR (Small Modular Reactors), Enriched Uranium, and Uranium Mining, each exhibiting distinct growth trajectories and investment characteristics [6][12] - The SMR segment shows strong price elasticity driven by significant investments from tech giants and supportive policies, suggesting a robust growth outlook [6][12] - The Enriched Uranium segment is positioned for growth due to domestic production incentives and geopolitical factors, with companies like Centrus Energy at the forefront [6][12] - The Uranium Mining segment, while less volatile, is expected to benefit from long-term supply-demand dynamics, with key players maintaining a stable investment profile [6][12] 3. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report outlines the recent performance of the U.S. nuclear sector, highlighting the dual drivers of AI and policy support that have propelled stock prices in the sector [10][27] - It notes that the nuclear industry is entering a new policy-driven cycle, with significant implications for investment strategies and market valuations [12][24] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy changes and market dynamics will create substantial opportunities for investors in the nuclear energy space, particularly in segments with strong growth potential [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its product matrix and expected performance recovery driven by cyclical recovery [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a stable recovery in the power semiconductor industry, with a rich product matrix supported by both organic growth and acquisitions [5][6]. - The automotive electronics sector is highlighted as a key growth area, with significant demand expected from the electrification of vehicles [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic acquisition of Better Electronics to enhance its product offerings and market presence [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Self-Development and Acquisition to Expand Product Categories - The company focuses on power semiconductors, with a collaborative development model across three main segments: materials, wafers, and packaged devices [15][18]. - The acquisition of Better Electronics is expected to enhance the company's product matrix and market reach [6][9]. 2. Traditional Power Devices: Solidifying the Foundation with Future Potential in Automotive Business - The global power device market is projected to grow steadily, with automotive applications leading the growth [9][59]. - The company has a comprehensive product line in traditional power devices, positioning itself well for future automotive electronics demand [6][9]. 3. Rich Product Line in Small Signal Products and Accelerated MOSFET Development - The company has a diverse range of small signal discrete devices and is enhancing its MOSFET product line to achieve import substitution [6][9]. 4. Continuous Launch of IGBT and Third-Generation Semiconductor New Products - The company is actively developing IGBT chips and high-voltage modules, with a focus on applications in AI servers, new energy vehicles, and industrial power [6][9]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.215 billion, 1.474 billion, and 1.732 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.23%, 21.28%, and 17.50% [5][7]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to decrease from 21 times in 2025 to 15 times in 2027, indicating potential for valuation improvement [5][7].

Fixed Income - The report highlights a significant increase in the proportion of interest rate bonds in Japan's bond market over the past 26 years, with government bonds accounting for 92.3% of the total market by the end of 2024 [6][7] - Japanese bond funds have seen a decline in scale, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield falls below 2%, with rapid decreases noted below 1.5% and potential near-zero levels below 0.5% [8] - The trend towards indexation and ETF formation in a low-interest environment is emphasized, with average ETF fees dropping to 0.28% in 2024, suggesting a strategic shift towards bond ETFs and international investments [8] Mechanical/Building Materials - The report discusses the acceleration of nuclear energy narratives due to geopolitical tensions, particularly following U.S. administrative actions aimed at revitalizing the nuclear industry to meet the energy demands of emerging sectors like AI [10][11] - Nuclear fusion is identified as a critical area of competition among nations, with its potential to address global energy challenges due to its abundant, sustainable, and safe energy characteristics [11] - The report notes that China has established a preliminary fusion equipment industry chain, with ongoing investments expected to benefit related companies amid increasing capital expenditure driven by geopolitical dynamics [11] Transportation - Dongguan Holdings is focused on its core highway business, with a notable increase in revenue from CNY 1.097 billion in 2015 to CNY 1.692 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 4.93% [14][15] - The company has committed to substantial cash dividends over the next three years, with a promise of at least CNY 0.475 per share annually, enhancing shareholder returns [14][15] - The strategic expansion of the Dongshen Expressway is expected to significantly improve traffic capacity and revenue, with toll income rising from CNY 930 million to CNY 1.32 billion between 2015 and 2024 [15] Electronics - Changdian Technology ranks third globally among OSAT manufacturers, benefiting from the recovery of the semiconductor industry and a growing demand for advanced packaging technologies [18][19] - The company plans to invest CNY 8.5 billion in fixed assets in 2025 to expand its advanced technology capacity, targeting high-growth market applications [20] - The automotive electronics market is projected to grow significantly, with the company poised to capitalize on this trend through its new production facility in Shanghai, expected to commence operations in late 2025 [21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the semiconductor packaging and testing industry, benefiting from the recovery of industry conditions and its advanced packaging layout, which promises growth potential [4]. - The company ranks third globally among OSAT manufacturers and first in mainland China, indicating its strong market position [4]. - The company's proprietary XDFOI®Chiplet technology has achieved stable mass production, catering to high-performance computing, AI, 5G, and automotive electronics [4]. - The automotive electronics market presents significant growth opportunities, with the company expected to see rapid development following the launch of its new factory in Shanghai [4][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 29,661 million RMB - 2024: 35,962 million RMB (21.24% YoY growth) - 2025: 42,865 million RMB (19.20% YoY growth) - 2026: 47,361 million RMB (10.49% YoY growth) - 2027: 52,999 million RMB (11.90% YoY growth) [5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,471 million RMB - 2024: 1,610 million RMB (9.44% YoY growth) - 2025: 2,078 million RMB (29.11% YoY growth) - 2026: 2,900 million RMB (39.56% YoY growth) - 2027: 3,967 million RMB (36.77% YoY growth) [5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.82 RMB in 2023 to 2.22 RMB in 2027 [5]. Investment Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to decrease from 39.90 in 2023 to 14.79 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [5][6]. - The report compares the company with peers such as Tongfu Microelectronics, Huatian Technology, and Nexperia, with an average valuation of 39.29 times for 2025 [6].

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 铁路公路 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | 05 | | 日 | 27 | | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 10.21 | | | | | | 一 年 内 高 最 低 | / | | | | | | | 最 | | | （元） | | | | | 12.23/8.53 ...