Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core Viewpoints - In October, the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions led to increased volatility in global risk assets. The market is waiting for the implementation of tariffs, but the impact may be controllable. After the Sino-US high - level video call on October 18th to restart consultations and the expected APEC summit at the end of October, the short - term emotional pressure on policy gaming may ease, but potential risks such as the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the pressure on China's economic data need attention. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25BP in October, significantly alleviating the inverted Sino - US interest rate spread and opening up room for further loosening of China's monetary policy [2][10][85]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak. Consumption and exports may face pressure. The National Day holiday consumption data shows "volume increase but price slowdown", indicating weak consumer willingness, and the export growth rate in Q4 this year may face pressure [10]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October. Considering the domestic fundamentals and external environment, the domestic policy interest rate may be cut by 10 - 20BP in Q4. The preferred bonds for attack are 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the yield of 10Y treasury bonds will return to around 1.65%, 30Y treasury bonds to 1.9%, and 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% [4][11][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of September, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The net cash injection in the first three quarters was 761.9 billion yuan. At the end of September, the M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, M1 was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and M0 was 13.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The increase in RMB deposits in the first three quarters was 22.71 trillion yuan, and the balance at the end of September was 324.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first three quarters was 14.75 trillion yuan, and the balance at the end of the month was 270.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [12]. - In September, the CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, an increase of 0.1 pct from the previous month, mainly dragged down by food and energy prices, and 0.1% month - on - month, an increase of 0.1 pct from the previous month. The year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded to 1.0% in September. The year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% in September, an increase of 0.6 pct from the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month [16]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" were 17.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, accounting for 51.7% of the total imports and exports [21]. - On October 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [23]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of October 12th, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 6.7% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. As of October 17th, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days decreased by 27.3% year - on - year. As of October 10th, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 44.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales increased by 36.4% year - on - year [24][26]. 2.2 Transportation - As of October 12th, the container throughput of ports increased by 3.4% year - on - year. As of October 17th, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year. As of October 12th, the postal express pick - up volume decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the delivery volume decreased by 5.1% year - on - year. The railway freight volume decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume decreased by 15.9% year - on - year [28][35][37]. 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of October 15th, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 78.1%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct. As of October 16th, the average asphalt operating rate remained the same year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate was 84.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 75.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 pct. As of October 17th, the average PX operating rate was 88.5%, and the average PTA operating rate was 75.5% [42][46]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of October 17th, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 10.9% year - on - year. As of October 10th, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 43.6% year - on - year [50][51]. 2.5 Prices - As of October 17th, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 26.9% year - on - year and 8.3% compared with four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 14.9% year - on - year and 1.4% compared with four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits decreased by 3.5% year - on - year and increased by 3.1% compared with four weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 18.3% year - on - year and increased by 3.4% compared with four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 19.1% year - on - year and 7.7% compared with four weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 12.0% year - on - year and 0.6% compared with four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore remained flat year - on - year and decreased by 0.8% compared with four weeks ago [53][57][62]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On October 17th, overnight Shibor and some short - term interest rates showed small fluctuations. Most treasury bond yields increased. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.47%, 1.59%, 1.83%, and 2.20% respectively, with increases of 10.1BP, 0.7BP, 0.4BP, and - 3.2BP compared with October 11th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.62%, 1.78%, 1.99%, and 2.35% respectively, with changes of + 1.1BP, + 1.0BP, - 0.9BP, and - 0.6BP compared with October 11th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.49%, 1.81%, and 2.02% respectively, with decreases of 4.1BP, 1.8BP, and 3.5BP compared with October 10th. The yields of AAA 1 - month and 1 - year, AA + 1 - month and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared with October 11th. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany decreased compared with October 10th. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB changed compared with October 10th [65][69][73]. 4. Institutional Behavior - The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed a slight upward trend this week. On October 17th, the estimated average duration of interest - rate bond funds was around 5.0 years, and the median was around 4.6 years, an increase of about 0.1 year compared with October 10th. The estimated average duration of credit bond funds was around 2.7 years, and the median was around 2.7 years, an increase of about 0.1 year compared with October 10th [82][83]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report is bullish on the bond market. The preferred bonds for attack are 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the yield of 10Y treasury bonds will return to around 1.65%, 30Y treasury bonds to 1.9%, and 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% [4][11][85].

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） 26 年汽车总量思考（1）：纯电和混 动价差缩小，并非一定导致混动销量 承压 证券分析师 ——汽车行业双周报（20251006-20251019） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2026-2027 年享受购置税减免的插电+增程乘用车的纯电续航里程要求提升超 100%，静态看预计有约 40%的插混+增程乘用车无法再享受补贴，尤其或将对 7~20 万元紧凑型、中型插混车型（以比亚迪等经济型插混车型为代表）造成影响。2025 年 10 月 9 日，工信部等三部门发布《关于 2026-2027 年减免车辆购置税新能源汽 车产品技术要求的公告》，并指出 2026-2027 年减免车辆购置税的插电式（含增程 式）混合动力乘用车纯电动续驶里程应满足有条件的等效全电里程不低于 100 公里， 较此前的不低于 43 公里有明显提升。2025H1 插混+增程乘用车上险量约 203 万辆， 我们筛选了市占率前 95%的插混+增程乘用车并测算发现，其中 WLTC 续航在 43~100km（含 43，不含 100）、100km 以 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing a quarterly performance recovery, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][6] - The paint business shows positive sales trends, while the waterproofing segment continues to decline, leading to an overall improvement in gross margin due to lower costs [6] - The company is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in the home decoration industry as the real estate sector stabilizes [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 13,016 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.52% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 802 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 141.60% [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.09 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 43.37 [6][7] Market Performance - The company reported a revenue of 9.392 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 2.69% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 744 million yuan, up 81.22% [6] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 improved to 32.8%, attributed to a significant decrease in average procurement prices of key raw materials [6] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.088 billion yuan, an increase of 18.73% compared to the previous year [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][47] Core Viewpoints - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, reaching 41,971 billion yuan. Excluding automobiles, the total retail sales amounted to 37,260 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [5][6] - The growth rate of furniture retail sales is notably high, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2% for furniture, while other categories such as household appliances and building materials showed varied performance [33][6] - Essential consumer goods like daily necessities and food saw significant growth, with food retail sales increasing by 6.3% and daily necessities by 6.8% year-on-year [18][24] - In the optional consumption category, communication equipment and gold and silver jewelry experienced strong growth, with retail sales increasing by 16.2% and 9.7% respectively [23][31] Summary by Sections Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 41,971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%. Urban and rural retail sales were 35,783 billion yuan and 6,188 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% and 4.0% respectively [5][6] Retail Sales by Type - The retail sales of limited enterprises in September were 17,776 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The breakdown shows that retail sales of goods and catering revenue totaled 16,429 billion yuan and 1,347 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% and declining by 1.6% respectively [12][6] Essential Consumption - In essential consumption, the retail sales of food increased by 6.3%, daily necessities by 6.8%, while beverages saw a decline of 0.8% [18][24] Optional Consumption - In optional consumption, the retail sales of communication equipment grew by 16.2%, cosmetics by 8.6%, and clothing by 4.7% [23][31] Other Consumer Categories - The retail sales of furniture showed a significant increase of 16.2%, while household appliances grew by 3.3%. However, building materials and petroleum products experienced declines of 0.1% and 7.1% respectively [33][36]

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 21 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 10 | 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 5.85 | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 6.70/3.67 | | 元） | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 12,095.94 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 12,095.94 | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 25.56 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | 361 度(01361.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——25Q3 零售额维持快速增长，品牌 ONEWAY 重新出发 投资要点： | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | -- ...

证券研究报告 电子 | 半导体 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 20 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 熊宇翔 xiongyuxiang@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | 10 | 17 | 日 | | | | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 101.47 | | | | | | | 一 年 最 高 最 低 | / | | | | | | | 内 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 40,774.86 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 32,779.30 | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 401.84 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - Credit spreads across the curve have compressed, with slight widening observed in the banking sector while other industries saw a majority of spreads compressing [2][7][9] - The issuance volume of traditional credit bonds and asset-backed securities has increased, with AA and AA+ rated industrial and urban investment bonds yielding between 2.4% and 2.8% [6][9] - The strategy suggests a cautious approach to credit allocation, recommending short-end positioning and moderate allocation to medium to long-term credit bonds [9] Group 2: Emerging Industries and Index Funds - The "Specialized, Refined, Characteristic, and Innovative" (专精特新) initiative has led to the cultivation of over 140,000 specialized small and medium enterprises in China, with 1,460 "little giant" companies [11][12] - The North Exchange's specialized index, launched in June 2025, selects the top 50 securities from these "little giants," focusing on high-end manufacturing, new materials, and biomedicine [11][12] - The expected scale of the first batch of index funds is around 10 funds with an average size of 500 million yuan, potentially exceeding 15 billion yuan by 2027 [12] Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - The express delivery sector has shown resilience, with major companies reporting improved single-ticket revenue and volume growth, indicating a trend of price increases in the industry [20][21][30] - The privatization attempt of Aneng Logistics by a consortium is still in preliminary stages, introducing uncertainty into the acquisition process [22] - The implementation of new port fees between China and the U.S. is expected to create a dual market structure, affecting shipping costs and efficiency [23][24] Group 4: Media and Entertainment - The gaming sector is expected to continue benefiting from strong product performance, with companies like Ice Glacier Network projecting significant earnings growth [34][35] - The launch of Manus1.5 enhances AI web application capabilities, indicating ongoing innovation in AI technology [35][36] - The CTE event showcases a wide array of global toy brands, highlighting the rapid expansion of the trendy toy industry [35] Group 5: Energy and Utilities - The electricity and environmental sectors are projected to see stable operations in hydropower and nuclear power, with significant growth expected in waste-to-energy projects [4][30] - The oil and gas pipeline sector is undergoing reforms, with an emphasis on fair access and market structure improvements [4][30] - The anticipated increase in electricity demand driven by AI advancements presents opportunities for equipment exports [4][30]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction decoration industry, emphasizing the advantages of low valuation strategies and significant engineering investment opportunities [3][4] - The construction sector is experiencing accelerated investment due to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand, with a notable increase in railway construction investments [5][11] - The issuance of long-term special bonds has been completed, providing substantial financial support for major infrastructure projects and new quality productivity initiatives [5][11] Industry News - The construction of railways has progressed significantly, with a total fixed asset investment of CNY 593.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [5][11] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments have released an action plan to promote new urban infrastructure construction from 2025 to 2027, focusing on nine key areas [6][11] - A new management approach for energy-saving and carbon reduction projects has been introduced, targeting key industries such as construction materials and energy, with a central investment support ratio of 20% [6][11] Market Review - The construction decoration index declined by 1.67% during the week, while sectors like decoration and engineering consulting services saw gains of 3.40% and 2.68% respectively [8][19] - Among individual stocks, Matrix Co. saw a significant increase of 39.20%, while several others also performed well, indicating selective strength within the sector [8][19] Company Dynamics - Various companies reported their operational updates, with notable new contracts and project wins, such as China Nuclear Engineering's new contracts totaling CNY 1129.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.84% [14][15] - Companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge reported a 25.16% increase in new contract amounts for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling CNY 971.73 billion [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks in a favorable liquidity environment, recommending companies like Jianghe Group and Sichuan Road and Bridge [8][14] - It also highlights the importance of companies with clear transformation directions and growth potential in new business areas such as renewable energy and digital construction [8][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

Investment Rating - The report focuses on the charging infrastructure industry, highlighting investment opportunities in companies involved in the charging facilities supply chain [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese government has launched the "Three-Year Doubling Action Plan for Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities (2025-2027)" to enhance the charging infrastructure network and promote electric vehicle adoption [3][7]. - As of mid-2025, there are 4.096 million public charging facilities and 12.004 million private charging facilities in China, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.7% and 63.3% respectively, indicating a rapid release of demand in residential areas [3][17]. - The report identifies 10 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange that are involved in the charging facilities supply chain, including WanYuanTong and JuXing Technology [3][41]. Summary by Sections 1. National Policy Driving Charging Infrastructure - The "Three-Year Doubling Action Plan" aims to improve the electric vehicle charging service network and enhance consumer quality [3][7]. - The integration of electric vehicles and charging stations is accelerating, with a significant increase in fast charging adoption [3][8]. 2. Current Status of Charging Facilities - Public charging facilities reached 4.096 million, with a 36.7% increase year-on-year, while private facilities grew by 63.3% [3][17]. - The demand for public charging stations is primarily driven by ride-hailing and taxi services, while residential charging facilities cater to private vehicle owners [3][17]. 3. Industry Trends - The emergence of the 800V high-voltage fast charging system is driving technological innovation across the supply chain [3][28]. - Liquid cooling technology is crucial for achieving high-power charging (over 600kW) [3][31]. 4. Company Performance - The report notes a median price change of -5.11% for technology growth stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with only 12 companies showing an increase [3][43]. - The median TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the new energy industry is reported at 35.2X, down from 38.7X [3][47].