Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Insights - Nvidia's FY1Q26 revenue reached $44.06 billion, exceeding guidance with a year-on-year growth of 69% but only a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12%. The gross margin has started to decline, falling below previous guidance [6][18] - The core driver for Nvidia's revenue remains the strong growth in data center business, accounting for approximately 89% of total revenue, particularly driven by the demand for generative AI training and inference [6][18] - The overall performance of Hong Kong and US tech stocks was mixed, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.5% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.2% during the week [9][11] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - Nvidia's FY1Q26 revenue was $44.06 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%. The gross margin was 60.5%, down 12.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [18][19] - The data center business remains the main revenue driver, contributing nearly 70% of the data center computing revenue from the Blackwell platform [18][19] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5170.4, down 1.5%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 4758.1, up 1.2% [9][10] 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased to $3.32 trillion as of May 30, 2025, down from $3.46 trillion the previous week [24][40] - The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies was $142.46 billion, accounting for 4.29% of the total market capitalization [24] - The cryptocurrency market sentiment is currently in the greed zone, with a fear and greed index of 61 [28]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 5.83% in May 2025, outperforming other major indices such as the ChiNext and the ChiNext 50 Index [4][7][11] - In the first five months of 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index rose by 36%, significantly ahead of other indices, with the Sci-Tech 200 and CSI 2000 also showing gains of over 8% [4][7][11] - The transportation, defense, and beauty care sectors led the gains in May 2025, with 28 companies achieving a rise of 20% or more, and six companies exceeding 40% [4][13][16] Group 2 - The trading volume and turnover on the North Exchange decreased in May 2025, reaching 28.473 billion shares and 604.841 billion yuan, while the average daily turnover increased from 30 billion yuan in April to 31.8 billion yuan in May [4][18][19] - The monthly turnover rate for May 2025 was 77%, slightly down from 80% in April [4][20] - As of May 30, 2025, the overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the North Exchange A-shares reached 49 times, which is 145% of the ChiNext's valuation and 92% of the Sci-Tech Board's valuation [4][22][23] Group 3 - The North Exchange announced adjustments to the North Exchange 50 sample stocks, with five companies being added, effective June 16, 2025 [4][24][25] - The North Exchange's index calculation and maintenance rules were revised for the first time since September 2022, aiming to enhance the investment value of the North Exchange 50 Index [4][26][27] - The report suggests that institutional investors should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on stable growth companies and sectors with unique market positions, such as high-end manufacturing and consumer industries [4][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, awaiting further macroeconomic catalysts. The weekly changes in copper prices are -0.05% for London copper, -0.24% for Shanghai copper, and -3.35% for New York copper. Domestic copper inventory has increased by 7.2% to 106,000 tons [5][22] - Aluminum prices are stable with ongoing inventory depletion. The price of alumina has risen by 2.95% to 3,320 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 0.40% to 20,100 CNY/ton [5][31] - Lithium prices continue to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton. The supply side has not shown significant production cuts yet, which is a major factor suppressing lithium prices [5][72] - Cobalt prices remain under pressure due to weak demand, with potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could create rebound opportunities [5][84] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 2.40%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.38 percentage points [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 17.86, down 0.50 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 2.05, down 0.06 [17][20] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices decreased by 0.05%, while Shanghai copper prices fell by 0.24%. London copper inventory dropped by 9.02%, while Shanghai inventory increased by 7.22% [22] 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.02%, while Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.40%. The inventory of both London and Shanghai aluminum has decreased [31] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell by 1.29%, and Shanghai lead prices decreased by 0.92%. London zinc prices dropped by 0.67%, while Shanghai zinc prices fell by 0.07% [42] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - London tin prices decreased by 6.80%, and Shanghai tin prices fell by 4.45%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [57] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton, with lithium demand currently in a seasonal downturn [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.68% to 234,000 CNY/ton, with potential for policy changes in the DRC to impact future prices [84]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 02 日 利差小幅波动，5Y 表现坚挺 ——信用分析周报（2025/5/26-2025/5/30） 投资要点： 本周（5/26-5/30）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情：山石网科通信技术股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"山石转 债"债项评级调低；无锡市梁溪经济发展投资集团有限公司所发行的"崇安寺 A" 隐含评级调低；梧州市苍海建设开发有限公司所发行的"18 梧州南站项目 NPB01"、 "18 梧州南站项目 NPB02"隐含评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 9460 亿元逆回购到期，本周央行累计开展 16026 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净投放 6566 亿元。本周 DR001 由周初的 1.44%上行到 1.60%。 投资建议：总体来看，本周不同行业信用利差整体变化不大，AAA 电气设备行业信 用利差大幅走扩。主要银行三五年定期存款利率下调对三五年期信用债构成支撑的 逻辑之下，信用债性价比被动提升，建议继续关注 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on operational improvements and performance potential [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the fourth largest airline in China, with a significant restructuring following its bankruptcy in 2021, leading to improved operational efficiency and performance recovery [7]. - The company benefits from a high proportion of operating lease aircraft, providing greater flexibility and resilience compared to competitors, alongside investments in various industry chain companies that are expected to enhance profitability as the aviation sector improves [7]. - The company is expected to leverage its geographical advantages, particularly from the Hainan Free Trade Port development, to capitalize on growth opportunities [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections show a significant increase from 58,641 million RMB in 2023 to 92,311 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.68% [6]. - The net profit forecast indicates a recovery from a loss of 921 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 5,684 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a strong turnaround in profitability [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from -0.02 RMB in 2024 to 0.13 RMB in 2027, indicating a positive trend in shareholder returns [6]. Operational Metrics - The company achieved a passenger volume of 23.06 million in the first four months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with international passenger volume surging by 78.3% [7]. - The passenger load factor reached 83% in 2023, showing an improvement of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the aircraft utilization rate surpassed the industry average for the first time in seven years [7]. - The company’s unit revenue per passenger kilometer (RPK) reached 0.53 RMB, ranking third in the industry and reflecting a significant increase compared to 2019 levels [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][80]. Core Views - The company is a state-owned coal giant with stable profitability and growth driven by joint ventures, highlighting its value in dividends [5][10]. - The company has a robust coal resource base, ranking third in total coal reserves and second in recoverable reserves among listed coal companies [7][29]. - The company is actively expanding its coal chemical business, which is expected to contribute to new growth drivers [7][67]. - The company has a strong cash flow and a low debt ratio, indicating potential for increased dividends in the future [10][76]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 10.71 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 142 billion yuan [3]. Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 192.97 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09% [6]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stands at 44.80% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 15.40 billion, 16.82 billion, and 17.96 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.4, and 7.9 [8][72]. Investment Logic - The company benefits from high-quality coal resources and a high proportion of long-term contracts, ensuring stable coal prices and low sales costs [10][75]. - The company is diversifying into downstream industries, forming a coal-chemical integrated growth model [10][75]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 30% from 2017 to 2022, with plans to increase dividends in 2023 and 2024 [10][76].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company's 2025 life insurance NBV shows resilience, and the dividend policy is positive [5] - In Q1 2025, the company's OPAT and NBV performance was strong, with a 2.4% year-on-year growth in OPAT to 37.9 billion yuan, despite a decline in group revenue and net profit [6] - The life insurance business remains a core pillar, contributing 71.7% of net profit and 70.9% of OPAT in Q1 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price on May 29, 2025, was 53.52 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 974,611.76 million yuan [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the group revenue and net profit decreased by 5.2% and 26.4% year-on-year, respectively, to 232.8 billion yuan and 27 billion yuan [6] - The life insurance business achieved a 34.9% growth in NBV, contributing to a 5% OPAT growth [6][7] Business Outlook - The life insurance capacity may face pressure in 2025, requiring strategic products to support sales [7] - The company expects to see rapid growth in its bancassurance market share, with a 171% year-on-year increase in NBV in Q1 2025 [7] - The NBV margin improved by 11.4 percentage points year-on-year to 28.3% in Q1 2025, indicating potential for further margin enhancement [7] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a positive dividend policy, with a commitment to increasing the absolute value of cash dividends annually [10] - The current dividend yield for A-shares and H-shares is 4.76% and 6.00%, respectively [10] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 135.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [11] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 7.42 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 7.2 [11]

Group 1: Fixed Income - The development of bond ETFs in China has gone through three stages: initial phase, slow growth, and rapid growth, with a total of 29 bond ETFs and a scale of 253.129 billion yuan as of May 9, 2025 [2][6] - The U.S. bond ETF market has matured since its inception in 2002, with significant growth during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and a current focus on broad-based bond ETFs [8][9] - The U.S. bond ETF market benefits from a combination of low interest rates, high credit premiums, and global investment opportunities, which have driven rapid growth [9] Group 2: Uranium Industry - The U.S. nuclear energy policy has undergone a significant restructuring, transitioning from policy expectations to tangible execution, which is expected to drive the uranium industry upward [11][12] - Key areas of focus include enriched uranium, small modular reactors (SMRs), and domestic uranium mining, with policies accelerating the transmission of benefits to corporate fundamentals [11][12] - The SMR sector shows strong price elasticity due to technological advancements and policy support, while the enriched uranium sector is positioned for growth driven by domestic production [14][15] Group 3: Utilities and Environmental Protection - China Resources Power, the only power entity under China Resources Group, has maintained profitability since its listing and has a market-oriented operational model [17][18] - The company plans to split its renewable energy segment for a secondary listing, which is expected to enhance its valuation significantly [19][20] - By the end of 2024, the renewable energy capacity will account for nearly 50% of the company's total capacity, with a strong profit margin compared to peers [18][20] Group 4: Metal New Materials - Salt Lake Co. has become the largest potash fertilizer and lithium extraction company in China, with production capacities of 5 million tons for potash and 40,000 tons for lithium [23][24] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in potash prices due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand increases [24] - The lithium extraction process has a significant cost advantage, with production costs projected at 36,500 yuan per ton, supporting stability during price downturns [25] Group 5: Electronics - Yangjie Technology is expanding its product matrix through both internal development and acquisitions, with a focus on power semiconductor recovery [27][28] - The automotive power device market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the electrification of vehicles, with a CAGR of 13% from 2022 to 2028 [28] - The company is actively developing IGBT chips and third-generation semiconductor products, with plans to launch domestically produced SiC modules by late 2025 [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in potassium fertilizer and lithium extraction from salt lakes, leveraging dual profit drivers from both sectors [8][11]. - The integration into China Minmetals Corporation's system is expected to enhance the company's capabilities and establish a world-class salt lake industry base by 2025 [8][11]. Company Overview - The company, based in Qinghai, is the largest potassium fertilizer and lithium extraction enterprise in China, with a potassium chloride production capacity of 5 million tons and lithium carbonate capacity of 40,000 tons as of the 2024 annual report [8][16]. - The company has a strategic focus on the comprehensive development of the Qarhan Salt Lake resources, establishing a circular economy model centered on potassium [16][21]. Potassium Sector - The company is the domestic leader in potassium fertilizer, with stable production and sales, and is expected to benefit from a recovery in potassium prices due to supply constraints [11][41]. - The global potassium fertilizer market is highly concentrated, with major producers controlling over 70% of the capacity, leading to a long-term reliance on imports for China [41][43]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable potassium chloride sales volume of 5 million tons annually from 2025 to 2027, with projected average sales prices of 2,750, 2,700, and 2,650 RMB per ton respectively [10][41]. Lithium Sector - The company is recognized as a low-cost leader in lithium extraction from salt lakes, with an anticipated increase in lithium production capacity due to ongoing projects [11][63]. - The report forecasts a steady growth in lithium sales volume, with expectations of 43,000 tons in 2025, 60,000 tons in 2026, and 80,000 tons in 2027 [10][63]. - The lithium market is expected to experience price stabilization in 2025, with projected average sales prices of 60,000, 71,000, and 80,000 RMB per ton from 2025 to 2027 [10][63]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.88 billion, 6.42 billion, and 7.17 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.2%, 9.0%, and 11.7% respectively [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 14, 13, and 12 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is planning to spin off its renewable energy segment for a listing on the A-share market, which is expected to enhance its valuation significantly [5][10] - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities and management mechanisms, which are crucial for navigating through market cycles [10][27] - The company has a solid track record, having never reported a loss since its listing, and has maintained a stable return on equity (ROE) [7][16] Financial Performance and Valuation - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 103,334 million HKD in 2023 to 131,238 million HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.48% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 11,003 million HKD in 2023 to 16,635 million HKD in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8, 6.6, and 6.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8] Renewable Energy Segment - By the end of 2024, the company's renewable energy capacity is expected to account for nearly 50% of its total installed capacity, with significant investments planned for further expansion [7][27] - The company has a competitive edge in unit profitability for its renewable energy segment, outperforming major competitors in terms of net profit [35] - The planned IPO of the renewable energy segment is anticipated to raise 24.5 billion RMB for new projects, which could lead to a valuation exceeding 150 billion HKD post-listing [38][43] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a unique market position due to its historical roots and strategic focus on both traditional and renewable energy sectors [14][19] - The operational strategy emphasizes a balanced approach to energy generation, with a significant focus on renewable energy development in regions with higher electricity prices [27][32] - The company’s management has effectively navigated market challenges, maintaining a strong performance even during periods of industry downturns [20][24]