证券研究报告 电子 行业定期报告 高端国产化浪潮起，消费电子性价比凸显 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——电子行业周报（20250414-20250420） 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 21 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 风险提示：周期复苏不及预期风险、海外宏观环境持续震荡风险、AI 产品落地不及 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 本周电子板块行情回顾：参考中证行业指数，本周电子指数下跌 1.02%，其中消费 电子指数下跌 1.23%，半导体指数下跌 0.63%，中美关税冲突引发市场对于电子行 业景气度的担忧。我们认为从行业周期角度来看，当前产业链行业库存正常化进程 正在稳定推进，下游逐步改善，因此周期节奏有望稳健向上；同时中美关税冲突或 将再次引发产业链核心环节的国产化浪潮，重视波动中存在的投资机会。 景气度如何：参考全球半导体芯片销售额同比增速，经历了 2021 年下半年至 2023 年上半年产业链长达两年的去库存之后，于 2023 年下半年随着库存的出清及需求的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that goodwill impairment will impact the annual performance, but the medium to long-term growth potential remains intact [6] - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that the military explosives business has optimized capacity, but revenue has declined due to lower average prices and reduced blasting volume [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 2,541 million yuan - 2024: 2,354 million yuan - 2025E: 2,695 million yuan - 2026E: 3,272 million yuan - 2027E: 3,793 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 18.05% - 2024: -7.34% - 2025E: 14.45% - 2026E: 21.44% - 2027E: 15.91% [7] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 306 million yuan - 2024: 181 million yuan - 2025E: 311 million yuan - 2026E: 441 million yuan - 2027E: 572 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 112.65% - 2024: -40.84% - 2025E: 72.00% - 2026E: 41.75% - 2027E: 29.90% [7] Market Performance - The report notes that the military explosives integrated business generated 1.646 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 5.70% year-on-year, with various segments experiencing declines in revenue [8] - The average price of products such as packaged explosives and electronic detonators decreased by 3.98% and 2.47% respectively [8] - The military new materials business saw a revenue increase of 55.21%, with specific segments like tantalum-niobium oxides growing by 53.32% [8] Profitability Metrics - The integrated military explosives gross margin was 40.24%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report indicates that the company expects to complete the production line for energetic materials by the end of September 2025 [8] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast for 2025-2027 as follows: - 2025: 26 - 2026: 18 - 2027: 14 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the upcoming launch of S086, a hypertension treatment, which is expected to have significant market potential. The company Sinopharm is highlighted as a key recommendation [3][8] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth due to several factors, including innovation, international expansion, and an aging population. It also notes that the industry has completed a transition from old to new growth drivers [20][39] Summary by Sections 1. S086 - S086, developed by Sinopharm, is the second ARNI drug to enter clinical trials globally, with a significant market potential due to the high prevalence of hypertension in China [12][13] - The drug has shown superior efficacy in clinical trials, particularly in managing nighttime blood pressure and reducing uric acid levels, which positions it favorably against competitors like Novartis' Entresto [12][13] 2. Industry Perspective - The pharmaceutical index has shown a decline of 0.36% from April 14 to April 18, with a year-to-date decline of 1.45%. The report notes that the sector is experiencing a mixed performance with both rising and falling stocks [20][25] - The report identifies key investment themes: innovation, international expansion, and the impact of an aging population on healthcare demand [20][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies and medical devices, particularly those with strong international growth potential and those benefiting from domestic policy support [39][41] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Sinopharm, Hengrui Medicine, and Kelun Pharmaceutical, among others [39][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the shipping and shipbuilding industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that global shipping decarbonization plans are being established, which will benefit shipbuilding through economic measures [3] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set various targets and regulatory measures to gradually promote shipping decarbonization, with emission reduction goals based on 2008 levels [6][7] - The report indicates that traditional heavy fuel oil (HFO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) may not meet the IMO's mid-term decarbonization requirements by 2035 [10] - Ships using HFO may incur compliance costs of approximately $100 per ton between 2028 and 2030, while LNG-fueled ships may be exempt from such costs [10] - The analysis suggests that using fuels with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) content is more effective in reducing potential compliance costs than improving ship efficiency [14] - The IMO's zero-carbon fund has high reward requirements, and only bio-LNG, blue/green methanol, and green ammonia may meet these standards [16] - The report notes that over 80% of the global fleet's capacity currently relies on traditional heavy fuel oil [16] - For ships built before 2015, the inability to retrofit for green fuels will significantly reduce their future economic viability [19] - The report estimates that approximately 60% of existing capacity (ships built before 2015) will need to be replaced with new ships using green fuels by 2030 [20] - As the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) requirements increase, the proportion of the global fleet rated D-E may further rise [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current dividend yield of 5% [5] Core Views - The company's performance is being impacted by power restrictions, leading to a decline in profits. The main reasons for the profit decline are reduced wind power profits and lower returns from solar projects despite an increase in installed capacity [7] - The company is expected to focus on high-quality growth rather than blind capital expenditure, leveraging its advantages from being part of the China General Nuclear Power Group [7] - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for electricity is anticipated to stabilize revenue expectations and promote healthier industry development [7] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 19.51 billion USD in 2024, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.48 billion USD, down 7.3% year-on-year [7] - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2025E: 14,267 million RMB - 2026E: 14,470 million RMB - 2027E: 14,731 million RMB - Net profit projections are: - 2025E: 1,852 million RMB - 2026E: 1,958 million RMB - 2027E: 2,090 million RMB [6][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are projected to be 4.8, 4.5, and 4.3 respectively [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: Short - end Spreads Compressed, Long - end Spreads Widened — Credit Analysis Weekly (2025/4/14 - 2025/4/18) - Report Date: April 20, 2025 - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided in the report Core Views - The 10 - year Treasury yield at 1.65% prices in about a 30BP interest rate cut expectation, and the 10Y Treasury yield may return above 1.7% this year [2] - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated this week. For urban investment bonds, the 3 - 5Y spreads are inverted with long - end spreads, and it is recommended that institutions with stable liability ends select high - quality urban investment entities in developed regions. For industrial bonds, short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly, and it is recommended to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds. For bank capital bonds, short - end spreads compressed to varying degrees, and long - end spreads widened slightly, and it is recommended to focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [2][44] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Overview (4/14 - 4/18) 1.1 Primary Market - Credit bond issuance, repayment, and net financing: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 17.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.34 billion yuan from last week. The total issuance was 45 billion yuan, an increase of 2.42 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 27.04 billion yuan, an increase of 6.76 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 2.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.08 billion yuan [6] - By product type: The net financing of urban investment bonds was 6.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.26 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 12.78 billion yuan, an increase of 3.97 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was - 1.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.04 billion yuan [6] - Issuance and repayment numbers: Urban investment bond issuance increased by 53 and repayment by 21; industrial bond issuance increased by 102 and repayment by 63; financial bond issuance decreased by 14 and repayment increased by 9 [7] - Issuance costs: Except for the issuance rates of AAA urban investment bonds and financial bonds rising, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. For urban investment bonds, AA and AA + rates decreased by 15BP and 2BP respectively; for industrial bonds, AA, AA +, and AAA rates decreased by 15BP, 18BP, and 2BP respectively; AAA urban investment and financial bond rates increased by 1BP and 15BP respectively. For asset - backed securities, AAsf - rated ABS rate increased by 550BP, AA + sf - rated ABS rate decreased by 92BP, AAAsf - rated ABS rate decreased by 9BP, and AA + and AAA - rated ABN costs decreased [15][16] 1.2 Secondary Market - Trading volume: The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 2.24 billion yuan from last week. Urban investment bond volume increased by 5.65 billion yuan, industrial bond volume increased by 4.3 billion yuan, financial bond volume decreased by 12.2 billion yuan, and asset - backed securities volume increased by 0.9 billion yuan [18] - Turnover rate: The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated. Urban investment bond turnover rate was 1.69%, a decrease of 0.36pct; industrial bond turnover rate was 2.14%, an increase of 0.24pct; financial bond turnover rate was 2.71%, a decrease of 0.89pct; asset - backed securities turnover rate was 0.7%, an increase of 0.28pct [18] - Yields: Except for the yields of credit bonds below 1Y decreasing slightly, the yields of credit bonds of other terms and ratings decreased by 0 - 7BP. By variety, taking AA + - rated 5Y bonds as an example, the yields of different varieties fluctuated [22][23] - Credit spreads: The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly. AA - rated pharmaceutical and biological credit bonds narrowed by 10BP; among AA + - rated bonds, the spreads of electronics, chemical, and machinery industries narrowed by 6BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively, while that of the computer industry widened by 5BP; among AAA - rated bonds, the spread of the electrical equipment industry narrowed by 9BP, and that of the leisure service industry widened by 6BP [25] 2. Urban Investment Bonds - By term: Short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly. The 0.5 - 1Y spread was 44BP, a compression of 1BP; the 1 - 3Y spread was 51BP, a compression of less than 1BP; the 3 - 5Y spread was 75BP, a compression of 3BP; the 5 - 10Y spread was 66BP, a widening of 3BP; the spread over 10Y was 47BP, a widening of less than 1BP [29] - By region: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in various regions generally narrowed, with some regions rising slightly. Tianjin, Shanxi, and Gansu's AA - rated spreads compressed by 5BP or more, and the spreads of other regions fluctuated by less than 5BP [31] 3. Industrial Bonds - Credit spreads: Short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly. After the adjustment of long - end spreads, the convex point of the term spread of AAA - rated industrial bonds has been smoothed out. It is recommended to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [33] 4. Bank Capital Bonds - Credit spreads: Short - end spreads compressed to varying degrees, and long - end spreads widened slightly. For secondary capital bonds, the spreads of AAA - 3Y, AA + 1Y and 3Y, and AA 1Y narrowed by 5BP or more, and the spreads of AAA -, AA +, and AA 10Y widened by 2 - 3BP. For bank perpetual bonds, the spreads of AAA -, AA +, and AA 1Y narrowed by 5BP. It is recommended to focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [37] 5. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - Negative sentiment: The implied ratings of "24 Anyang Iron and Steel MTN001 (Sustainable - linked)", "24 Anyang Iron and Steel MTN002 (Science and Technology Innovation Note)", "25 Anyang Iron and Steel PPN001 (Science and Technology Innovation Note)", and "25 Anyang Iron and Steel PPN002B (Science and Technology Innovation Note)" issued by Anyang Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. were downgraded [2] 6. Investment Recommendations - Urban investment bonds: Institutions with stable liability ends can select high - quality urban investment entities in developed regions to lock in coupon income and moderately sink to capture arbitrage opportunities at the convex points of the term structure [2][44] - Industrial bonds: Focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [2][44] - Bank capital bonds: Focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [2][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The domestic aircraft industry is accelerating its international expansion, and the express delivery sector continues to grow rapidly [4][5] - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with VLCC rates rebounding due to OPEC+ production increases [5][6] - The express delivery industry shows strong demand, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% in the first quarter [8][9] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping Vessels - VLCC market rates have rebounded, with the TCE on April 17 reaching $48,551/day, up 33.8% from April 16 [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a decrease of 1.7% to 1,371 points [5] - The BDTI index increased by 2.34% to 1,141 points, while the BCTI index rose by 2.3% to 686 points [6] - The BDI index decreased by 3.6% to 1,262 points [6] Express Logistics - The express delivery industry handled 451.4 billion items in the first quarter, with a revenue of 345.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% and 10.9% respectively [8] - Major express companies showed varied performance in March, with YTO Express and SF Express reporting significant growth in business volume [9][10] Aviation and Airports - Domestic aircraft are gaining traction in international markets, with recent agreements between China and Vietnam, and China and Malaysia to enhance cooperation [11] - Predictions for the May Day holiday indicate a 7.6% increase in passenger volume compared to 2024 [12][13] Key Company Focus Aviation - Companies to watch include China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines due to expected demand recovery and supply constraints [14] Express Delivery - Recommended companies include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are positioned well for long-term growth despite current price competition [14] Shipping - Companies like COSCO Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation are highlighted due to the tightening supply of new vessels and increasing demand for oil transportation [14]

海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券研究报告 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 继续看多黄金，规避美元定价的风险资产 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/4/14-25/4/18） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 海外 AI：本周，白宫依据《贸易扩展法》第 232 条款发布的新行动，针对加工关键矿物及其衍生产品采取关税 或数量限制措施，以降低对外国供应链的依赖、增强国家安全和经济韧性。政策明确强化了美国自主掌控能源关 键原材料供应链的战略方向，间接利好铀板块。叠加此前限制俄罗斯铀进口的政策背景，本次行动有望进一步提 振市场对美国本土铀矿开采、铀浓缩与核燃料加工企业（如 Energy Fuels、UEC、Cameco 等）的中长期增长 预期 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 政策助力，Q1 经济数据较好 ——一季度经济数据点评 投资要点： 联系人 一季度 GDP 增速亮眼。一季度，中国 GDP 达到 31.9 万亿元，实际 GDP 同比增长 5.4%。其中，最终消费支出拉动 GDP 增长 2.8 个百分点，贡献超过一半以上的经济 增长，或因在以旧换新政策持续推动下，消费潜力持续释放；资本形成总额拉动 GDP 增长约 0.5 个百分点，或因财政政策靠前发力和大规模设备更新政策效果逐渐显现； 货物和服务净出口拉动 GDP 增长 2.1 个百分点，或因"抢出口"效应持续支撑。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 一季度消费增速较高。一季度，社会消费品零售总额 12.5 万亿元，同比增长 4.6%， 扣除价格因素实际增长 4.8%；3 月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.9%，增速较 1-2 月份提高 1.9pct。消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策成效明显。3 月份限额以上单位 通 讯 ...

证券研究报告 机械设备 | 工程机械 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事 件 ： 25Q1 实 现 营 收 1.67 亿 元 (yoy+18%/qoq-10%) ， 归 母 净 利 润 3382.47 万 元 (yoy+61%/qoq+2%)，扣非归母净利润 3301.50 万元(yoy+70%/qoq+2%)，收入端延续稳定增 长，利润端超预期。从费用端来看，25Q1 销售费用率 1.11%(yoy-0.01pcts/qoq+0.05pcts)， 管理费用率 2.57%(yoy-0.59pcts/qoq-0.71pcts），费用端控制得当。 联系人 液压油缸"小巨人"，工程机械等下游恢复，油气弹簧等新产品不断扩展。公司业务涵盖液 压产品的研发、设计、生产和销售，主要产品包括自卸车专用油缸、机械装备用缸和油气 ...