Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its fundamentals, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025. Revenue reached 239.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%, while net profit rose by 23.04% to 57.89 billion RMB [6]. - The beer segment is showing strong performance, particularly in high-end products, while the white liquor business is currently under pressure but has potential for recovery [5][6]. - The company is actively adapting to market changes, enhancing brand visibility, and leveraging its resources in the beer sector to support its white liquor business [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 28.58 HKD, with a market capitalization of 92,718.58 million HKD. The stock has seen a one-year high of 36.00 HKD and a low of 21.60 HKD [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.88%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-on-year. The EBITDA, excluding special items, increased by 18.69% to 89.22 billion RMB [6]. - The beer segment generated revenue of 231.61 billion RMB, up 2.64% year-on-year, while the white liquor segment saw a decline of 33.7% to 7.81 billion RMB [6]. Sales and Strategy - The company’s beer sales volume reached 648.7 million tons, a 2.2% increase year-on-year, with high-end products showing significant growth. The average selling price for beer increased by 0.4% to 3,570 RMB per ton [6]. - The company is embracing new consumer trends by developing various specialty beers and has established strategic partnerships with major online platforms to enhance its sales channels [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 53.58 billion RMB, 58.6 billion RMB, and 63.84 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 13 [6][7].

Fixed Income - The credit spreads for different industries and ratings have mostly adjusted by no more than 5 basis points, with some industries experiencing compression [2][6][8] - The 10Y government bond yield is expected to return to around 1.65% in the next six months, with a current yield close to 1.8%, indicating strong value [8] - The market is anticipated to have no trending movements in 2025, making it challenging to invest in a low-interest-rate environment, necessitating a focus on capturing wave opportunities [8] Small Home Appliances - The online sales proportion of small home appliances has increased from 68% in 2020 to 79% in 2024, while offline retail sales of kitchen small appliances have declined by 9.1% year-on-year in 2024 [11][12] - The market for small home appliances is expected to reach a scale of 539.2 billion yuan by 2027, driven by government policies and technological innovations [11] - The sales of small home appliances in the first five months of 2025 reached 615 million yuan, with a growth rate of 16.1%, leading the growth of other categories [11][12] Transportation - The Zhejiang Postal Administration has emphasized the need to combat low-cost competition in the express delivery sector, which may support a price recovery trend [14][15] - In the first half of 2025, Zhejiang Province completed a total of 16.144 billion express deliveries, accounting for 16.9% of the national total, ranking second in the country [15] - The express delivery industry is expected to see price increases due to the "anti-involution" measures and a recovery in market order [24] Overseas/Education Research - The market is currently focused on interest rate cut expectations, with significant volatility in risk assets following comments from Federal Reserve officials [28][33] - The AI and cryptocurrency sectors are highlighted as strong beta segments, while defensive positions are recommended in gold and VIX [34] - The uranium sector is expected to benefit from global nuclear energy expansion trends, with supply-demand dynamics being reinforced by production cuts from leading companies [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to commission 7 new coal power units in the second half of the year, with a total target of 10GW in new energy capacity for the year. The company's strong management capabilities and new installations are anticipated to contribute positively to profit growth [7] - The company forecasts capital expenditures of HKD 56.8 billion for 2025, with HKD 42 billion allocated for renewable energy projects and HKD 9.5 billion for thermal power construction [7] - The company achieved a core profit of HKD 82.78 billion in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 15.9% due to non-recurring gains from the previous year and increased impairments this year [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is HKD 18.43, with a market capitalization of HKD 95,413.17 million [4] Financial Data - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 are HKD 109.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.41%. The net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 14.42 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.1% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.6 [8] Operational Highlights - As of June 30, 2025, the company’s installed capacity was 78.09 million kW, with significant contributions from thermal, wind, and solar power [9] - The company’s electricity sales volume in the first half of 2025 was 102 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a decline in performance due to cyclical fluctuations in the software industry, but is expected to return to growth in the second half of the year [4] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 407 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.9% [4] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan with a total dividend amount of approximately 99 million yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 90% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 249 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.8% [4] - The software segment's revenue and profit declined, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, while the power instrument segment continued to grow rapidly with a revenue increase of 61.2% [6] - The environmental operation business showed signs of recovery, with revenue of 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, while environmental instruments saw a significant decline in revenue [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 327 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 469 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 18%, 21%, and 19% [6] - The current stock price corresponds to valuation multiples of 16, 13, and 11 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 08 | 月 22 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 9.71 | | 一 年 内 / 最 低 | 最 | 高 | | | | 11.35/8.78 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | 26,995.14 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | 26,995.14 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a focus on operational turning points under comprehensive market entry [5] - The company reported a revenue of 15.657 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.519 billion RMB, down 12.46% [7] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 0.1 RMB per share, accounting for 24.77% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [7] - The decline in revenue is attributed to the divestment of thermal power, while the average on-grid electricity price for wind power decreased by 1.6 cents to 0.422 RMB/kWh [7] - The company has a significant focus on shareholder returns, committing to a cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2025-2027 [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 32.408 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.982 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 8.8 [6] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 57.1 billion HKD, with a circulating market capitalization of about 22.7 billion HKD [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong potential for growth and performance in the capital markets [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading online investment decision-making solution provider in China, with a strong emphasis on research, technology, and operational capabilities. Its business model is highly elastic to capital market performance, suggesting significant growth potential during market upswings [6][11]. - The company has a concentrated and stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholders holding 65.5% of the shares, which may contribute to strategic consistency and long-term planning [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Online Investment Decision-Making Solution Provider - The company began as a high-end investment education service provider and has strategically expanded into overseas markets [16]. - It holds a rare securities investment consulting license, which is crucial for compliance and operational legitimacy in a tightly regulated industry [17]. 2. Core of Traffic Operations and Re-monetization - The business model focuses on acquiring users through public media and converting them into paying customers via private channels, enhancing user engagement and retention [35]. - The company has shifted its product strategy from high-value offerings to a diversified product range, including small-scale and educational products, to tap into a broader customer base [50]. 3. Capturing the Knowledge Payment Wave - The number of individual investors in the A-share market has steadily increased, providing a growing customer base for the company's services [59]. - The company has effectively leveraged new media platforms like Douyin to capture traffic and enhance user engagement, resulting in a significant increase in followers and content reach [7][36]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company boasts a robust research and development team, with 119 researchers contributing to high-quality investment content, supported by AI technology for operational efficiency [8]. - The company has demonstrated a strong return on investment (ROI) in its traffic acquisition strategies, with a notable increase in ROI from 2.6 times in 2022 to 5.2 times in 2024 [36]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation Comparison - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.285 billion, 1.396 billion, and 1.710 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with significant growth rates [10][11]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly lower than its comparable peers, suggesting an undervaluation relative to its growth potential [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth across its various business segments, with ongoing expansion in overseas markets [5] - The company reported a revenue of 4.66 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [7] - The respiratory segment has shown recovery in growth, with significant increases in home respiratory device sales [7] - The company is a leading domestic platform for home medical devices, with strong brand power and a promising outlook for international expansion [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8.606 billion yuan, 9.735 billion yuan, and 11.037 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.75%, 13.11%, and 13.38% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.011 billion yuan, 2.314 billion yuan, and 2.661 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 11.35%, 15.07%, and 15.03% respectively [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.40%, 14.53%, and 15.08% for the years 2025-2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 20.91, 18.78, and 16.32 for 2025-2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The children's clothing business continues to grow, and the company's overseas operations in mainland China are accelerating [5] - The company focuses on long-term development with a consumer-centric approach, emphasizing retail transformation, refined brand management, and overseas expansion [7] - The company has a strong dividend payout ratio of 124%, indicating a robust willingness to distribute profits to shareholders [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 325 million yuan, a decrease of 41.17% [7] - The gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 46.79% and 5.29%, respectively, with the gross margin increasing by 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company opened 540 new stores and closed 629 stores, resulting in a total of 8,236 stores as of June 30, 2025 [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 15.707 billion yuan in 2025, 16.884 billion yuan in 2026, and 18.097 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.39%, 7.49%, and 7.19% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 992 million yuan in 2025, 1.181 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.427 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.76%, 18.99%, and 20.85% respectively [6] Business Segment Performance - The children's clothing segment achieved revenue of 4.313 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.97%, while the leisure clothing segment generated revenue of 1.723 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.98% [7] - The gross margins for the children's and leisure clothing segments were 48.21% and 43.22%, respectively, with the leisure segment showing an improvement year-on-year [7] Market Expansion - The company's overseas business in mainland China generated revenue of 52 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 79.19%, indicating rapid growth in this area [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8, 2025, the PBOC will improve the Bond Connect "Southbound Link" mechanism and expand the scope of domestic investors to include four types of non - banking institutions: securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management institutions [3][4]. - Attention should be paid to the choice of the Southbound Link's custody model, offshore RMB liquidity, and the progress of domestic bond replacement of overseas bonds. After the Southbound Link expansion, the yields of different types of and maturities of Chinese overseas bonds have shown differentiation, and the subsequent implementation of the expansion policy may support further decline in yields [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southbound Link Custody Model - Domestic investors can choose between the multi - level direct connection custody model (through domestic bond registration and settlement institutions) and the global custody model (through domestic custody and clearing banks) to custody bond assets. The global custody model has a wider range of investable bonds [5][6]. - As of August 21, 2025, the RMB - denominated bonds held in CMU accounted for 75% of the total outstanding balance of Chinese overseas bonds, but the proportion of bonds denominated in other currencies held in CMU was generally low. The multi - level direct connection custody model has relatively limited bond selection [8]. 3.2 Offshore RMB Liquidity - Currently, the offshore RMB funding situation is generally loose, and the risk of liquidity tightening is relatively controllable. As of August 21, the 3M CNH HIBOR was at a historical low, and the 1Y CNH - CNY swap spread has returned to near zero [3][10]. - Attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of offshore RMB central bank bills in the second half of 2025. If the issuance accelerates and tightens offshore RMB liquidity, it may hinder the compression of spreads of offshore RMB bonds [3][13]. 3.3 Progress of Domestic Bond Replacement of Overseas Bonds - Since the issuance of Document No. 134, there have been cases of domestic bond replacement of overseas bonds, but there are still barriers. The number of replacement cases is limited, and the issuers who can achieve replacement mostly meet the requirements for new domestic bonds. Whether this can further reduce the credit risk of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) overseas bonds needs further observation of regulatory attitude changes [3][14][17]. 3.4 Recent Performance of Overseas Bonds - As of August 21, 2025, the static coupon of Chinese US - dollar bonds was generally higher than that of offshore RMB bonds, and the yield of Chinese US - dollar bonds declined more significantly than on July 8, showing stronger performance. However, investment in Chinese US - dollar bonds needs to consider factors such as greater valuation fluctuations, larger exchange - rate risk exposure, and hedging costs [3][27]. - For offshore RMB bonds, the yields of sovereign bonds and policy - financial bonds of different maturities have mostly been adjusted, while the yields of industrial bonds and LGFV bonds have mostly declined to varying degrees. The implementation of the Southbound Link expansion policy may support further decline in the yields of Chinese overseas bonds [27].