Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - Zhou Li Fu has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and has over 4,000 stores, maintaining a top five position in the Chinese jewelry market from 2017 to 2024 [1][21] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 5.718 billion, an increase of 11.0%, with a net profit of CNY 706 million, up 7.1% [2] - The product mix includes 91% gold jewelry and 9% diamond-set jewelry, with a diverse range of product series [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - Zhou Li Fu operates a comprehensive business model integrating product development, supply chain, franchising, and brand management [1] - The company has a strong offline sales network with 4,129 stores across 31 provinces and cities in China, and 4 overseas stores [2][21] - Online sales are rapidly growing, with a CAGR of 46.1% from 2022 to 2024 [2] Macroeconomic & Industry Data - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with jewelry retail sales growing by 25.3% [27][41] - National gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.49 tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year, with jewelry demand particularly affected by high gold prices [43][44] Investment Recommendations - Five investment themes are suggested: 1. Recovery of offline traffic benefiting traditional retail [54] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology [54] 3. Increased consumer willingness to pay for emotional value in new retail [54] 4. Recovery of cyclical sectors under domestic demand promotion [54] 5. Opportunities for domestic brands to expand overseas [54]

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The J-10C fighter jet is expected to lead China's military trade, becoming a prominent symbol of China's military exports [11] - The potential demand and development space in the military trade market are anticipated to exceed market expectations, with various companies positioned to benefit [11] Summary by Sections Events - Indonesia is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, influenced by the aircraft's performance in the India-Pakistan conflict and its competitive pricing compared to Western counterparts [2] - Recent reports highlight the J-10's development and achievements, with significant interest shown at the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition [2] - Pakistan's government announced the acquisition of 40 J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighters and other military equipment from China [2] Analysis and Judgments - The J-10 is poised to continue the success of previous Chinese military exports, moving from low-end markets to mid-high-end markets [3] - The J-10CE is positioned as a cost-effective option for developing countries, competing against established models like the F-16 and MiG series [4] - The J-10CE is expected to gain more international interest, particularly in Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East [5] Global Military Trade Landscape - The military trade landscape is shifting towards integrated solutions rather than just hardware sales, with increasing demand for comprehensive military systems [6] - Countries like South Korea are emerging as significant players in the global arms market, challenging traditional military powers [6] Industry Development - The J-10CE's capabilities, including advanced avionics and weapon systems, are expected to drive growth in the military supply chain [7] - The use of advanced materials and engines in the J-10CE enhances its performance and operational capabilities [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Key beneficiaries of the J-10's success include: - AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a core manufacturer of fighter jets [11] - Zhongjian Technology, a leader in high-end carbon fiber for aerospace applications [11] - Guorui Technology, a leader in military radar systems [11] - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, known for its advanced fighter jets [12] - Hongdu Aviation, a core manufacturer of training aircraft with significant export potential [12]

Global Market Overview - The US stock market continued its rebound, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively [2][11] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rising by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively [2][23] - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30 [1][16] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio increased to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45 [1][16] - The Nasdaq Index's P/E ratio is at 39.9, nearing the high zone of 40 [1][16] US Market Insights - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has risen to 36.91, significantly above historical averages [1][16] - The uncertainty in US economic policies and high valuations are putting pressure on sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials [1][16] - Major individual stocks within growth and value sectors are experiencing notable daily corrections [1][16] European Market Insights - European markets have shown a rebound, but rapid valuation increases combined with weak economic fundamentals may lead to volatility in indices such as the FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, and STOXX50 [1][2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down [1][38] - There is an expectation of continued differentiation in the Hong Kong market, with potential for stage corrections in assets that have seen significant gains in the first half of the year [1][38] - Structural opportunities may exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact, as the market has not yet formed a comprehensive bull market [1][38] Emerging Markets Insights - Emerging markets such as Istanbul ISE100, India SENSEX30, and others are likely to experience volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][2]

US Market Insights - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all increased by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively this week[2] - The TAMAMA technology index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio rose to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45[1] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio increased to 36.91, significantly above historical averages[1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively this week[2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.25% this week[3] - The market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down[1] - Structural opportunities exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact[1] Economic Indicators - Eurozone CPI year-on-year growth was 1.9% in May, down from 2.2%[3] - Eurozone core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.3%, down from 2.7%[3] - The US unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in May[42]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - Lululemon reported Q1 2025 revenue of $2.371 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by international business, while net profit decreased by 2.13% to $315 million [3][15] - The company maintains its FY25 revenue guidance of $11.15-11.3 billion, expecting a growth of 5%-7%, and has lowered its diluted EPS guidance to $14.58-14.78 from the previous $14.95-15.15 due to tariff fluctuations impacting the retail environment [3][15] - The report highlights a significant increase in inventory, up 23% to $1.7 billion, and anticipates a decline in gross margin by approximately 2 percentage points in Q2 due to rising rent and depreciation costs, increased tariff rates, and greater discounting [3][15] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Lululemon's Q1 2025 performance shows a mixed picture with revenue growth primarily from international markets, particularly a 22% increase in mainland China, although growth rates are slowing [3][15] - The company plans to open approximately 200 stores in China, currently operating 154 [3][15] 2. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector's performance was below the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 0.42% increase compared to a 1.13% rise in the index [17] - The report notes that the outdoor and sports segments performed well, while the textile machinery and home textile sectors lagged [17] 3. Material Data Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the China cotton price index was 14,561 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1.01% year-to-date, while the medium import cotton price index increased by 2.22% [26] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% year-on-year decline in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [36] 4. Export Data - From January to April 2025, textile and apparel exports totaled $90.472 billion, a 2.99% increase year-on-year, with textile exports rising by 8.44% while apparel exports fell by 2.06% [39][40] 5. Consumer Data - In March 2025, sales on Douyin for sports categories saw significant growth, with sports bags, shoes, and apparel increasing by 136.87%, 61.69%, and 63.72% respectively [50] - However, sales on Taobao and Tmall in April 2025 showed negative growth across various categories, indicating a challenging retail environment [9][50]

Employment Data Insights - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, slightly above the forecast of 126,000 but down from the previous month's increase of 177,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.24%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points month-on-month, while the labor participation rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 62.37%[3] - The household survey indicated a reduction of 696,000 jobs in May, with full-time employment decreasing by 623,000, accounting for 89.5% of the total job loss[3] Data Quality Concerns - April's non-farm employment figure was revised down by 30,000 to 147,000, and March's figure was revised down by 65,000 to 120,000, totaling a downward revision of 90,000 over two months[2] - The first quarter of this year saw a total downward revision of 189,000 in non-farm employment, representing a 36.2% adjustment, similar to last year's 36.9%[2] - Systematic errors in initial non-farm data are suggested, as companies with poorer conditions tend to report later, affecting data accuracy[2] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose by approximately 10 basis points, with the 10-year yield returning to above 4.5%[1] - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has decreased from over 50 basis points to 44 basis points, indicating a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve[7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to delay any interest rate cuts until at least September, as employment data does not show significant deterioration[5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is acquiring a 100% stake in Zhihaishi Siyu Industrial Development Co., Ltd. for a transaction price of 1.65 billion yuan, which will make Siyu Industrial a subsidiary of the company [2] - This acquisition is part of the company's strategy to expand its business boundaries and enhance industrial synergy, following previous acquisitions [3] - The hair care market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% from 2020 to 2023, and expected to reach 81.25 billion yuan by 2028 [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition Overview - The company plans to acquire a 65% stake in Jiangsu Xingsiyu Investment Management Co., Ltd. from a related party, which will lead to Jiangsu Xingsiyu becoming a controlling subsidiary [2] - The acquisition of Siyu Industrial is expected to enhance the company's service ecosystem and solidify its position as a preferred service provider for families [3] Synergy Potential - The acquisition is expected to create multiple synergies in membership, market layout, channel sharing, and service products [4] - The company has a large member base, with over 64 million members on its app and over 2 million members for Siyu, allowing for effective cross-marketing [4] - The integration of physical stores and online services is anticipated to improve customer experience and operational efficiency [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 12.23 billion yuan, 14.51 billion yuan, and 16.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 19%, and 14% [5] - The projected net profits for the same years are 480 million yuan, 670 million yuan, and 780 million yuan, with significant growth rates [5] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 39, 28, and 24 times, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [6] Core Insights - The total tin concentrate production at Renison for Q1 2025 reached 2,432 tons, a decrease of 27% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 7% year-on-year, impacted by unexpected shutdowns due to bushfires and power supply interruptions [1] - The tin concentrate shipment for Q1 2025 was 3,230 tons, reflecting a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 22% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated sales price for tin in Q1 2025 was A$50,603 per ton, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 26% increase year-on-year [4] - The estimated unit sales and marketing cost for tin was A$6,885 per ton, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year [5] - The estimated C1 cash production cost for tin was A$20,597 per ton, a 27% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 12% increase year-on-year [5] - The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) for tin was A$33,482 per ton, up 22% quarter-on-quarter and 2% year-on-year [5] - The estimated net cash inflow for Q1 2025 was A$14,596 per ton, a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 139% increase year-on-year [7] - The estimated revenue for Renison in Q1 2025 was A$123 million, a 21% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 35% increase year-on-year [8] - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 was A$56.23 million, a 30% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 59% increase year-on-year [9] - The estimated net cash inflow for Renison was A$35.50 million in Q1 2025, down from A$58.70 million in the previous quarter [10] - Total capital expenditure for the quarter was A$20.73 million, with A$10.49 million allocated for capital projects [11] - Metals X maintains a healthy cash balance, with A$175 million invested in fixed deposits at an average annual interest rate of approximately 4.85% [12][13] - The company continues to evaluate potential acquisition opportunities, focusing primarily on tin and similar base metals and gold opportunities [14] - Metals X made an informal acquisition proposal to Greentech Technology International Limited, contingent upon financial due diligence [15] - The company announced a share buyback plan, extending the buyback period for an additional 12 months [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is acquiring a 65% stake in Jiangsu Xinsi Yu Investment Management Co., which will become a subsidiary, to enhance industrial synergy and resource integration [2] - The acquisition aligns with the company's strategy to expand its product categories, market segments, and business formats, particularly in the personal care industry [3] - The hair care market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% from 2020 to 2023, and expected to reach 81.25 billion yuan by 2028 [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition Overview - The company announced the acquisition of a 100% stake in Zhuhai Siyi Industrial Development Co., with a transaction price of 1.65 billion yuan [2] Strategic Analysis - The acquisition is part of a three-pronged strategy to expand product categories, market segments, and business formats, enhancing the company's position as a preferred service provider for families [3] - The target company, Siyi Industrial, is a leader in the hair care sector, with a unique integrated operation model combining products, services, and channels [3] Synergy Potential - The acquisition is expected to create multiple synergies in membership operations, market layout, channel sharing, and business expansion [4] - The company has a large member base, with over 64 million members on its app, which can be leveraged for cross-marketing with Siyi Industrial's 2 million members [4] - The company operates 500 large stores and is expanding into lower-tier markets, which can enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.23 billion, 14.51 billion, and 16.51 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 480 million, 670 million, and 780 million yuan [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.38, 0.53, and 0.62 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 39, 28, and 24 times respectively [5] Long-term Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include continuous integration of the supply chain, expansion of joint ventures, and improvements in direct store profitability [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that Renison's tin concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 2,432 tons, a decrease of 27% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 7% year-on-year, impacted by unexpected shutdowns due to bushfires and power supply interruptions [1] - The estimated tin sales price for Q1 2025 was A$50,603 per ton, reflecting an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 26% increase year-on-year [4] - The estimated revenue for Renison in Q1 2025 was A$123 million, a decrease of 21% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 35% year-on-year [8] Production and Sales - Q1 2025 tin concentrate shipment was 3,230 tons, representing a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 22% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated C1 cash production cost for Q1 2025 was A$20,597 per ton, up 27% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year [5] - The estimated All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) for Q1 2025 was A$33,482 per ton, reflecting a 22% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 2% increase year-on-year [5] Financial Performance - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 was A$56.23 million, a decrease of 30% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 59% year-on-year [9] - The estimated net cash inflow for Q1 2025 was A$35.50 million, down from A$58.70 million in the previous quarter but significantly up from A$1.39 million in the same quarter last year [10] - Total capital expenditure for the quarter was A$20.73 million, slightly down from A$21.47 million in the previous quarter [11] Strategic Outlook - Metals X continues to evaluate potential acquisition opportunities both domestically and internationally, with a focus on tin and similar base metals and gold opportunities [14] - The company has made an informal acquisition proposal to Greentech Technology International Limited, contingent upon financial due diligence [15] - Metals X has announced a share buyback program, extending the buyback period for an additional 12 months [16]