Macroeconomic Outlook - GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%[2] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately, with CPI growth around 1% and PPI growth around 0%[3] - Fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase significantly, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a broad fiscal deficit rate of 8.2%-9.6%[3] Policy Focus - Policies will focus on external shocks, macroeconomic regulation, and long-term planning, with a balance between supply and demand[4] - Real estate policies will continue to intensify, with reforms in the housing market and local government debt resolution[4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will deepen reforms and promote modernization, with a focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading[121] Asset Allocation - Gold prices are expected to rise, potentially reaching $3000/ounce, driven by global uncertainty and monetary policy adjustments[128] - Crude oil prices are expected to slightly decline due to OPEC production increases and relaxed US energy regulations[129] - A-shares are recommended for overweight allocation, while the bond market is cautiously optimistic[130] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include mergers and acquisitions, technological innovation, leading companies, new supply chains, and elderly care and fertility sectors[4]

量化 CTA 风格因子跟踪-本周动量因子 表现较好 摘要 传统上，多因子主要应用于股票市场。随着我国期货 市场规模和上市品种数量的充分增长，多因子截面 CTA 策略也日益受到交易者关注。 我们研究发现了动量、期限结构、贝塔、波动率、偏 度、持仓等因子的有效性，并通过指数化，形成期货 市场的 Smart Beta，对它们作持续的跟踪。 风险提示：本报告仅对商品期货市场风格作客观呈现， 不具备任何交易建议。历史业绩不代表未来业绩，回 测业绩不代表实盘业绩，期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 C H I N A F U T U R E S R E S E A R C H 简评报告 [table_invest] 作者姓名：彭鲸桥 邮箱：pengjingqiao@csc.com.cn 电话：023-86769675 期货从业信息：F3074348 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0012925 研究助理：盛亦青 邮箱：shengyiqing@csc.com.cn 电话：021-50600172 期货从业信息：F03107834 发布日期： 2024 年 9 月 15 日 | 一、 | 市场及板块一览 1 | | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告·债券动态 日本意外加息，全球收益率下行 ——全球债市观察双周报 2024811 期 核心观点 利率债方面，仍维持中枢波动下行的假设，上行是加仓机会。本期全球国 债利率中枢亦维持下行方向，10Y 美债利率从 4.2%一度降至 3.7%以下， 期末回到 3.9-4%区间。往后看，美国通胀、就业数据逐步回落的大趋势难 改，利率大方向仍是往下。信用债方面，衰退风险仍可控，高等级信用债 和 MBS 类资产的票息价值仍然值得关注，但投机级、高风险行业应该规 避。美国经济基本面风险可控，出现快速下行乃至衰退的概率不大，因而 美国高等级信用债违约风险不大。目前投机级美国信用债的利差已经处于 30%左右较低的历史分位数，利差保护略显不足。 内容要点 一、全球债市观察：全球收益率下行、美国降息预期加重 本期（7 月 29 日至 8 月 11 日），彭博全球综合指数收益率收 3.51%，彭 博全球综合信用指数收益率收 4.50%，较两周前分别-20.34、-17.73BP。 利率预期方面，美国年内降息预期次数增加，日本由于 7 月 31 日加息， 年内加息预期减弱。国别利差方面，各地区代表国家对美国利差倒挂均收 窄。 ...

证券研究报告·策略周报 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | 日央行加息,套息交易逆转 流动性周观察8月第1期 | | | 分析师:陈果 | 分析师:夏凡捷 | 分析师:姚皓天 | | chenguodcq@csc. com. cn | xiafanjie@csc.com.cn | yaohaotian@csc.com.cn | | SAC 编号: S1440521120006 | SAC 编号: S1440521120005 | SAC 编号: S1440523020001 | | SFC编号: BUE195 | | | 发布日期:2024年8月6日 本报告由中信建设证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信健技（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点 ● | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the autoimmune drug market, suggesting that the rapid growth in market size will drive the development of innovative drugs in China [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The patient population for autoimmune diseases and type II inflammation is rapidly increasing, with the market size expected to reach $24.7 billion by 2030, primarily driven by psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis [2][3]. - The report highlights the significant potential for improvement in the efficacy and safety of existing drugs, with numerous new drugs emerging with novel targets and mechanisms of action [2][3]. - Key companies in the domestic autoimmune sector include Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others, with a focus on psoriasis and atopic dermatitis [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The autoimmune drug market is experiencing accelerated growth, second only to oncology drugs, with substantial room for advancement in treatment efficacy and safety [2][3]. - The prevalence of psoriasis is the highest among autoimmune diseases, with a rate of 2.7%, while ankylosing spondylitis and rheumatoid arthritis have similar prevalence rates [2][3]. Company Pipeline and Development - Companies such as Heng Rui Medicine and Innovent Biologics have robust pipelines, with several drugs in late-stage clinical trials or submitted for market approval [2][3][4]. - The report details the progress of various drug candidates targeting IL-4R, JAK, and IL-23, with some already approved or in advanced clinical stages [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a rich pipeline of innovative drugs targeting various autoimmune conditions, with a focus on differentiation through novel mechanisms [2][3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships and licensing agreements in enhancing the development and commercialization of new therapies [2][3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for companies with strong clinical pipelines and operational efficiencies, specifically highlighting Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others as key players to watch [2][3][4].

看点① ：主动权益基金股票仓位下降 1.7pct 至 82.7%。 1）主动增配较多的行业：电子、通信、家用电器、国防军工； 看点④ ：红利板块配置拥挤度有所下降。 2024 年 2 季度，主动权益基金主要增配港股传媒、通信、电子、 消费者服务、纺织服装等行业，主要减配医药、煤炭、汽车、食 品饮料等行业。 chenguodcq@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440521120006 上证指数、创业板指走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 202 3/6/29202 3/7/29202 3/8/29202 3/9/ 29 202 3/10 /29202 3/11 /29202 3/12 /29202 4/1/ 29202 4/2/ 29202 4/3/31202 4/4/30202 4/5/31 上证指数 沪深300 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a detailed analysis of the recovery trends in various sectors of the global consumer goods industry, focusing on cosmetics, luxury goods, duty-free, travel, and entertainment sectors [1][2] Core Views - The global consumer goods industry is experiencing a mixed recovery, with some sectors like cosmetics and luxury goods showing signs of improvement, while others like duty-free and travel are still struggling to regain pre-pandemic levels [3][30][49] - The recovery is uneven across regions, with Asia-Pacific showing slower recovery compared to Europe and the Americas [14][20][36] - The report highlights the importance of multi-brand strategies and regional diversification for companies to navigate the post-pandemic landscape [16][28] Cosmetics Sector - In Q1 2023, international cosmetics brands in Japan and South Korea showed relatively weaker performance, with brands like Shiseido and Amore Pacific experiencing significant declines in revenue [3] - L'Oréal reported strong growth in its dermatological beauty segment, with a 30 6% increase in Q1 2023, while its luxury cosmetics segment saw slower growth [4] - The Chinese market continues to impact global cosmetics brands, with Shiseido reporting a 3% decline in revenue in China for Q1 2023 [7] - South Korean skincare brands are facing challenges, with Amore Pacific reporting a 17% decline in overseas revenue in Q1 2023, primarily due to weak demand in Asia [9] Luxury Goods Sector - Luxury brands like Hermès, LVMH, and Kering showed improved performance in Q1 2023, with Hermès reporting a 26 1% growth in Japan [30][36] - The Americas market for luxury goods is slowing down, with brands like Kering reporting a decline in North American sales [32] - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly Japan, is driving growth for luxury brands, with LVMH reporting a 34% increase in sales in Japan for Q1 2023 [36] Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sector is recovering unevenly, with European and American markets showing faster recovery compared to Asia [49] - South Korea's duty-free market is struggling, with sales in Q1 2023 down by 51 3% compared to the same period in 2019 [51] - China Duty Free has emerged as the largest duty-free operator globally, with its revenue surpassing pre-pandemic levels [56] Travel and Entertainment Sector - The travel sector is recovering, with OTA platforms like Expedia and Booking reporting strong growth in bookings, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [63][65] - The entertainment sector, particularly live events, is seeing a strong rebound, with Live Nation Entertainment reporting record revenues in Q1 2023 [77] - The cruise industry is still recovering, with major operators like Carnival and Royal Caribbean reporting significant losses despite an increase in passenger days [81][82] Regional Recovery Trends - The Americas and Europe are leading the recovery in the cosmetics and luxury goods sectors, while Asia-Pacific is lagging behind [14][20][36] - The duty-free sector in Europe and the Americas is recovering faster than in Asia, with operators like Dufry and Lagardère reporting improved performance [49][53] - The travel sector is seeing a strong recovery in the Asia-Pacific region, with OTA platforms reporting significant growth in bookings [63][65]

证券研究报告行业深度报告 可选消费品全球恢复系列五 分析师：刘乐文 分析师：于佳琪 分析师：陈如练 liulewen@csc.com.cn yujiaqibj@csc.com.cn chenrulian@csc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S1440521080003 SAC 执证编号：S1440521110003 SAC 执证编号：S1440520070008 SFC 中央编号：BPC301 SFC 中央编号：BRV097 研究助理：孙英杰 sunyingjie@csc.com.cn 发布日期：2023年12月24日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点  通胀经不是美国消费股所考虑的主要因素，美国本土消费降级品牌今年表现不佳主要为中国的商业 模式和供应链进入。 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 23 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | | 商贸零售 | | | 行业深度报告 | | | 然后向 OP 节点发起定向兑换请求， OP 接受指令后 PvP 互换两家银 | | | 行的 DR | | | 银行间私下达成交易的意向，然后分别向 OP 节点发送交收请求， | | Off-Corridor Arrangement | OP 接受到双边指令并核实后 PvP 互换两家银行的 DR | 资料来源：World Bank Group，中信建投证券 mBridge 依托区块链技术实现点对点交易，降本提效。根据 BIS 发布的《数字货币桥项目：通过 CBDC 连 接经济体》，mbridge 系统由访问层、应用程序层、数据层、区块链层、基本服务层五个模块组成，其中区块链 层作为平台的核心，由智能合约和共识协议组成。智能合约是区块链中四大核心技术之一，是当满足一定条件 后可以由程序自动执行的技术 ...