社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 10 日 市场回顾&行业动态数据 双周要闻 投资建议 2025 年政府工作报告有望通过多途径提振消费者及供给端信心。我们建 议关注后续业绩增长确定性强的出行链及产业相关公司：黄山旅游、丽 江股份、宋城演艺、岭南控股、众信旅游、中青旅、海昌海洋公园、天 目湖、长白山等；受益于商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连锁酒店 品牌君亭酒店、锦江酒店、首旅酒店等；受益于促就业政策推动的科锐 国际；跨境游市场恢复有望推动机场免税的恢复和市内免税新政加速推 出，建议关注中国中免、王府井；承接餐饮、宴会需求复苏的同庆楼； 本地生活消费老字号品牌豫园股份；受益于商务复苏的会展品牌米奥会 展、兰生股份；演艺演出产业链公司锋尚文化、大丰实业。 评级面临的主要风险 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 政府工作报告多方面提振行业信心 前两交易周（2025.2.24-2025.3.07）社会服务板块上涨 1.20%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 13。社会服务板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.07pct。本周餐饮 业重要连锁茶饮公司蜜雪冰城登陆港股。此外，2025 年政府工作报 ...

Stock Market Performance - The stock market rebounded quickly this week, recovering from last week's losses, with the CSI 2000 rising by 4.0% and the CSI 1000 by 3.8%[1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 5.6%, reaching a three-year high, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 8.4%[1] - Among 31 primary industries, only 5 sectors experienced declines, with metals, military, computer, and media sectors all rising over 5%[1] Trading Volume and Valuation - Average daily trading volume decreased to 1.7 trillion CNY, a 15% drop from last week's 1.99 trillion CNY[1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300 stood at 12.6, with a Z-Score of -0.1, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E of 39.6 and a Z-Score of -0.3[1] - The computer industry is the only sector with a P/E Z-Score exceeding 1, currently at 1.3[1] Bond Market Trends - The bond market showed weakness this week, with yields rising significantly due to various factors, including policy adjustments and market expectations[1] - The overall funding environment was balanced but slightly loose, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 195.5 billion CNY on Monday[1] - The market's interest rate expectations shifted, leading to an increase in yields, particularly in the interbank certificate of deposit rates[1] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by 3.4% to 103.9, while the euro appreciated by 4.3%, marking its largest weekly gain in nearly a decade[1] - Offshore RMB strengthened by 0.7% against the dollar, closing at 7.24[1] - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to 2909 USD/ounce, while Brent crude oil and WTI saw declines of 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of building a unified and open transportation market, reducing logistics costs, promoting cross-border e-commerce, and advancing new productivity in transportation [1][3] - The report highlights significant growth in cross-border e-commerce, with the market size increasing from 1.3 billion yuan in 2010 to 15.7 trillion yuan in 2022, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% [5] - The report discusses the potential of artificial intelligence and new technologies in transforming the transportation sector, including urban air mobility and autonomous logistics [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Multi-Modal Transport Theme - Recommended companies include Zhonggu Logistics, benefiting from domestic shipping reforms, and Tielong Logistics, which is poised to gain from railway freight reforms [3] Digital Freight Theme - Suggested companies for investment are Chuanhua Zhiliang, Zhongchu股份, and Manbang Group, which are expected to benefit from digitalization in freight [3] Cross-Border Logistics and Supply Chain Theme - Recommended companies include Jitu Express, which is establishing local express networks in Southeast Asia, and SF Express, which is expanding its international logistics capabilities [3] - Companies focused on improving cross-border logistics systems include China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group, Huamao Logistics, and Zhongchu Logistics [3] New Productivity in Transportation Theme - Suggested companies include CITIC Haineng, which operates in the low-altitude economy, and Yinfeng Storage, which specializes in intelligent warehousing [3]

《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主 线 》（2024/12/14） 房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 3 日 强大于市 相关研究报告 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续收窄，一线新房房价止 跌》（2024/12/17） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿及稳 定房地产市场的决心 》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政政 策；看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷利率 下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标准》 （2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首提"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，地 产拐点已至》（2024/09/26） 《房地产行业 2024 年中期策略——下半年地产空 间在哪?》（2024/07/30） 《这轮地产政策能刺激多少需求？》 （2024/05/21） 《为什么是 3000 亿？》（2024/05/21） 《这次地产不一样？》（2024/05/13） 《房地产行业 2024 年度策略——行业寒冬尚在延 续，房企能否行稳致远？》（2024/01/03） 中银国际证券股份 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 2 月 23 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 需求是拉升国际金价的重要因素 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 ◼ 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.00%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.09%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 3.86%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 3.07%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率下跌 4BP 至 1.25%；十年国债收益率上行 7BP 至 1.72%，活跃十年国债 期货本周下跌 0.53%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。需求是拉升国际金价的重要 因素。截至 2025 年 2 月 20 日，伦敦金现价实现 2939.0 美元/盎司，较年 初（2025 年 1 月 2 日）增长 12.0%，较 2022 年涨幅实现 60.7%，近年国 际金价涨幅较为明显。黄金本身具备避险属性，或在一定程度上受到地缘 关系影响。截至 2025 年 2 月 18 日，地缘政治威胁指数五日均值为 159.1， 明显高于 1 月 1 日水平。2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2 月 18 日，地缘政治威胁指 数 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 2 月 17 日 交通运输行业周报 1 月全球新船订单同比下降，首都机场 24 年业 绩预告减亏 航运方面，1 月全球新船订单同比下降，韩国船厂凭借箱船订单跃至全球新 船订单量首位；航空方面，苏州通用机场将于 2026 年建成，首都机场 24 年 业绩预告减亏；快递物流方面，2025 年 1 月份电商物流指数为 109.2 点， 发 改委等八部门将在多个城市开展物流数据开放互联试点。 ◼ 核心观点： ①1 月全球新船订单同比下降，韩国船厂凭借箱船订单跃至全球新船订 单量首位。2025 年 1月，全球成交新船订单 68艘 305 万载重吨，同比分 别下降 48.5%和 62.6%，环比分别下降 44.3%和 42.8%。全球船舶完工交 付 171 艘 990 万载重吨，同比分别下降 8.1%和 6.7%。1 月末，全球船舶 手持订单 5750 艘 3.68 亿载重吨，同比分别上涨 19.0%和 30.1%。在 1 月 的新船订单中，集装箱船依旧是占比最高的船型，按载重吨计，占比升 至 78%，其余船型占比均在 10%以下。1 月，韩国凭借大量的集装箱船 订 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream industries, particularly in electronic materials and new energy materials [1] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1] - The report highlights the high prosperity of leading companies in the refrigerant and vitamin industries [1] - It notes an overall improvement in macroeconomic expectations, suggesting attention to undervalued leading companies and those in the light hydrocracking sub-industry [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of February 10-16, 2025, among 101 tracked chemical products, 43 saw price increases, 26 saw declines, and 32 remained stable [7] - The average price of WTI crude oil was $70.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while Brent crude oil was $74.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.11% [31] - The report indicates a tightening supply of potassium chloride due to reduced production and limited import availability, with prices rising to 2797 CNY/ton, up 4.19% week-on-week [32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the rapidly developing electronic materials and new energy materials sectors [8] - It suggests that the oil and gas extraction sector will continue to see high prosperity, with energy state-owned enterprises improving quality and efficiency [8] - The report identifies specific companies to recommend, including China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and several others in the new materials and chemical sectors [8] Price Changes - The average price of DMF increased to 4300 CNY/ton, up 4.24% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decrease of 12.65% [33] - The report notes that the overall market for chemical products is experiencing a mixed trend, with some products seeing significant price increases while others decline [30]

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 2 月 17 日 强于大市 房地产行业2025年1月月报 1 月楼市成交环比季节性回落，但较去年春节月有大幅增长； 土拍溢价率创近三年新高 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 1 月土地市场成交规模季节性回落，但溢价率创近三年新高。1 月全国（300 城）成交土地建面环比-74.3%，同比-18.4%；楼面均 价环比-27.8%，同比+13.8%；平均土地溢价率为 8.1%，环比+4.3pct，同比+4.8pct。北京、深圳、杭州等地的优质地块在年初成 交，再加之 1 月三四线城市土地成交比例下降，明显提升了 2025 年 1 月的平均溢价率，为 2022 年以来的新高。一、二、三线城 市成交土地规划建筑面积环比增速分别为-87.8%、-77.1%、-73.3%，同比增速分别为-76.1%、-28.4%、-4.3%；楼面均价分别 25824、1735、1002 元/平，环比增速分别为 247.5%、-21.8%、-41.2%，同比增速分别为 436.0%、-5.1%、29.7%；平均溢价率分别 为 14.8%、16.0%、 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 2 月 17 日 | 2 月金股组合 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | --- | --- | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | | 中国石油 | | 601857.SH | | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 688085.SH | 三友医疗 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 002241.SZ | 歌尔股份 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250217 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 市场指数 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证综指 3346.72 0.43 深证成指 10749.46 1.16 沪深 300 3939.01 0.87 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】关注 2025 年金融改革*张晓娇 朱启兵。2024 年顺利完成 5% 的经济增长目标。稳健的货币政策灵活适度、精准有效，加大逆周期调节力 度，支持实体经济回升向 ...

Economic Overview - In 2024, state-owned enterprises in China are projected to achieve total operating revenue of CNY 84,722.58 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[3] - The total profit is expected to reach CNY 4,350.46 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%[3] - By the end of December, the asset-liability ratio stands at 64.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[3] Commodity Market Insights - Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.09% to USD 77.49 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.03% to USD 74.60 per barrel[5] - The EIA reported a reduction of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil inventory, bringing the total to 412 million barrels[5] - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 4,000 barrels per day to 1,347.7 million barrels per day, while exports increased by 43,700 barrels per day to 4.515 million barrels per day[5] Steel and Iron Ore Production - China's crude steel production for 2024 is estimated at 1,005.09 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year[9] - The iron output is projected at 851.74 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year[9] - Steel exports are expected to reach 110.716 million tons, marking a 22.7% increase year-on-year, the highest in nine years[9] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to increased inventory levels in steel[9] - The PX market is facing downward pressure due to increased downstream PTA maintenance and a lack of strong demand[7] - The fuel oil market shows mixed trends, with high-sulfur fuel oil futures rising by 0.14% to CNY 3,613 per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil futures fell by 0.59% to CNY 4,015 per ton[6]