宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 美国关税政策从不确定性到确定性 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。特朗普自 2025 年 1 月就职 以来，以关税政策威胁国际贸易伙伴，截至目前其关税政策的进展情况包 括：对全球，2025 年 2 月 10 日宣布对所有进口钢铁和铝征收 25%关税， 并于 3 月 12 日正式生效；对加墨两国，进口商品加征 25%关税于 3 月 4 日生效，后对符合《美墨加协定》优惠条件的商品免征关税；对中国，自 2025 年 2 月 4 日起，对所有原产于中国（含香港）的商品加征 10%的额 外关税，并计划取消货值低于 800 美元的小额免税政策。美国威胁要出台 的关税包括，对欧盟的汽车和农产品关税，对印度、泰国、墨西哥等国的 "对等关税"，等等。面对美国的关税威胁，欧洲、加拿大、墨西哥、中 国等都提出了反制措施。我们认为随着美国关税政策落地，在全球经济复 苏基础相对薄弱的情况下，2025 年全球贸易将面临一定程度的冲击，不 排除 2025 年全球经济增速存在下调的可能性。考 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is currently in a central upward oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing the critical level of 3400 points, which has occurred four times since 2010. The sustainability of this upward momentum is a key focus for the market [2][8]. - Strong and sustained recovery or unexpectedly loose macro policies are crucial for the index to stabilize above 3400 points. The report emphasizes the need to observe the strength of domestic demand recovery in the future [2][8]. - The report notes that the current policy stance is clear, with expectations of continued high growth trends in credit and social financing. However, the low increase in household credit since the beginning of the year suggests that short-term real estate sales may still drag on domestic demand [2][8]. Group 2 - The report highlights a short-term balancing of market styles, with cyclical and consumer sectors outperforming technology, indicating a shift in market dynamics. The report suggests that the current market style is under pressure for equilibrium, with potential for a phase of basic expectation speculation as economic data verification approaches [9][20]. - The technology sector is experiencing a high-low switch in absolute returns, and unless there is a strong macro recovery environment, the probability of further index increases is low. Historical data shows that significant adjustments in the technology sector have only occurred during strong recovery phases [22][23]. - The report discusses the potential for the domestic demand and cyclical resource sectors to stabilize the index if the technology sector underperforms. It emphasizes the need for stronger counter-cyclical or supply-side policies to support this transition [24][30]. Group 3 - The report mentions that the construction sector, particularly excavator usage, shows signs of structural recovery, although overall market conditions remain to be verified. The sales figures for major real estate companies indicate a steady recovery, but a full rebound may still take time [27][29]. - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery, but the overall revival may still depend on further policy signals. The report notes that while large consumer goods like automobiles and home appliances are showing signs of improvement, the white liquor prices have not yet seen a clear rebound [29][30]. - The report anticipates that the technology sector will remain a key focus for 2025, with upcoming industry conferences expected to catalyze market activity. The performance of AI applications and infrastructure is highlighted as a potential area for growth [30][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, Softcom Power, is a core partner of Huawei and is poised to enter a new chapter in humanoid robotics, presenting significant growth opportunities in the future [3][8]. - The company has adopted a "soft and hard integration" strategy following its acquisition of Tongfang Computer, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects amid the acceleration of HarmonyOS development and the implementation of domestic innovation policies [3][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for PC products powered by HarmonyOS, especially in light of the U.S. sanctions affecting Huawei's supply chain [41][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Softcom Power is a leading domestic IT service provider, having served over 1,100 clients across more than ten key industries, including major firms like Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent [16][31]. - The company has undergone significant transformations over the years, evolving from a startup to a publicly listed entity with a strong focus on digital technology services and infrastructure [18][27]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 314.1 billion, RMB 348.8 billion, and RMB 398.5 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 1.7 billion, RMB 3.9 billion, and RMB 5.7 billion [5][7]. - The company anticipates a significant revenue increase of 78.6% in 2024, followed by growth rates of 11.1% and 14.2% in the subsequent years [7][8]. Business Segments - The company operates four main business segments: software and digital technology services, computing products and digital infrastructure services, digital energy and intelligent computing services, and international business [30][31]. - The software and digital technology services segment accounts for over 90% of total revenue, with a focus on consulting, digital technology services, and general technical services [30][31]. Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - Softcom Power has established a deep collaboration with Huawei, participating in the development of HarmonyOS and contributing significantly to the OpenHarmony project [44][46]. - The company is actively involved in the humanoid robotics sector, having launched its first humanoid robot, Tianhe C1, in January 2025, and is leveraging NVIDIA's technology to enhance training capabilities [8][49]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a strong market position as a key supplier for major internet firms and is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of AI and digital transformation initiatives across various industries [31][32]. - With a concentrated shareholding structure, the company benefits from stable management and strategic decision-making [21].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 14 日 | 3 月金股组合 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | | 000680.SZ | 山推股份 | | | 300073.SZ | 当升科技 | | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | 导入。 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | | 603986.SH | 兆易创新 | | 中银晨会聚焦-20250314 ■重点关注 【电子】深南电路*苏凌瑶。公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司实现业绩高 增，公司 PCB 业务充分把握结构性机会，封装基板业正加快推动高端产品 | 市场指数 | 收盘价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3358.73 | (0.39) | | 深证成指 | 10736.19 | (0.99) | | 沪深 300 | 3911.58 | (0.40) | | ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 3 月 13 日 002916.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 127.07 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 4.6 (11.1) 27.7 50.8 相对深圳成指 (2.9) (12.4) 28.7 38.2 发行股数 (百万) 512.88 流通股 (百万) 511.55 总市值 (人民币 百万) 65,171.35 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,200.29 主要股东 (17%) 5% 27% 49% 71% 92% Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 深南电路 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 日收市价为标准 以 2025 年 3 月 12 相关研究报告 《深南电路》20241031 《深南电路》20240828 《深南电路》20240710 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子：元件 证券分析师： ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 3 月 6 日 强于大市 2025 年政府工作报告解读 房地产"止跌回稳"主基调不变，释放需求和化解风险 并行，传递积极信号 风险提示： 房地产市场修复不及预期；销售超预期下行；融资渠道不通畅。 相关研究报告 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行 业主线 》（2024/12/14） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿 及稳定房地产市场的决心 》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政 政策；看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷 利率下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标 准》（2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首提"促进房地产市场止跌回 稳"，地产拐点已至》（2024/09/26） 《房地产行业 2024 年中期策略——下半年地 产空间在哪?》（2024/07/30） 《这轮地产政策能刺激多少需求？》 （2024/05/21） 《为什么是 3000 亿？》（2024/05/21） 《这次地产不一样？》（2024/05/13） 图表 1. 各年度政府工作报告 ...

【二手房成交】 1-2 月一线城市楼市成交同比正增长，弱能级城市仍 然承压；土拍溢价率创 42 个月以来新高 核心观点 【新房成交】 房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 3 月 13 日 强于大市 投资建议 房地产行业2025年2月月报 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 因去年同期恰逢春节假期低基数原因，2 月新房成交面积同比增速转正。2 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-14.2%，同比+25.0%，同比增速由负转 正，同比增速较上月上升 36.6pct。1-2 月 40 城新房成交面积累计同比+1.8%。 从各能级城市来看，高能级城市新房成交量同比正增长，一线城市因新政利好效应增幅居前，三四线城市同比负增长。1）一线城市：2 月新 房成交面积环比-29.8%，同比 ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 12 日 强大于市 房地产行业第 10 周周报（2025 年 3 月 1 日-2025 年 3 月 7 日） 本周楼市成交同比持续正增长；政府工作报告地产 7 大方向全面 囊括，住建部发声四大举措稳楼市 新房成交面积环比由正转负，同比涨幅扩大。二手房成交面积同环比涨幅均收窄。新房库存面积同环比 均下降，去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 政策 投资建议 风险提示 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续收窄，一线新房房价止跌》 （2024/12/17） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主 线 》（2024/12/14） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿及稳 定房地产市场的决心 》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政政策； 看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷利率 下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标准》 （2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首提"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"， 地产拐点已至》（ ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | 3 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 000680.SZ | 山推股份 | | 300073.SZ | 当升科技 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 603986.SH | 兆易创新 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250312 ■重点关注 【电子】AI 算力产业链更新报告*苏凌瑶。自 DeepSeek 发布后，海内外热 度不减，下游生态应用或迎来加速闭环。而在国产侧，昇腾或成为 DeepSeek 紧密合作方共同打造 AI 算力基座。我们认为，在国内先进制程良率攀升的 前提下，配套供应体系或迎来加速放量。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3379.83 | 0.41 | | 深证成指 | 10861.16 | 0.33 | | 沪深 30 ...