Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on technology growth opportunities in the market, indicating a shift towards structural investment rather than index performance [1][10] - The AI industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of a rebound driven by domestic computing power improvements and software application advancements [1][29] - The report notes a significant increase in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, with a notable 21% increase from July 1 to August 1 [1][29] Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a light index but heavy structural focus, with a controlled risk of decline due to weak recovery in the fundamental backdrop [1][10] - The political bureau meeting has shifted focus towards the implementation of existing policies rather than new initiatives, indicating a stable but cautious economic outlook [1][9] - The market sentiment has recovered to near yearly highs, suggesting a potential for a phase of expectation fulfillment in the short term [1][10] Industry Insights - The top ten industries recommended for August include light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, beauty care, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, basic chemicals, communications, defense, and social services [1][29] - The defense and military industry is expected to receive continuous catalysts leading up to the upcoming military parade, with historical patterns suggesting a "high before the event" trading behavior [1][26] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the stock price fluctuations in the military industry, especially in light of historical trends observed during previous military parades [1][26] Fund Flow Analysis - The report indicates a significant net sell-off in the A-share market, with a net outflow of 192.79 billion yuan, marking the largest weekly sell-off in four months [1][40] - The pharmaceutical sector saw the highest net inflow of 10.746 billion yuan, while the largest outflows were from non-bank financials and power equipment [1][40] - The report notes a continued net subscription in stock ETFs, primarily focused on Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift in investor interest [1][40]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company for the first time [1][4]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 42.157 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.768 billion, up 10.59%, demonstrating strong resilience during the post-pandemic recovery phase [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from accelerated revenue growth from the Jingfu Anhui line and the anticipated contribution of additional passenger trains from the Xiongshang high-speed railway, which is expected to open in 2026, indicating significant long-term growth potential [1][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a landmark project in China's high-speed rail network, with a total length of 1,318 kilometers, officially opened in 2011 and listed on the A-share market in 2020. It has transported over 1.6 billion passengers [17][20]. Business Model - The company operates under a commissioned transportation management model, where the organization of transportation is managed by the respective railway bureaus along the line. Its main revenue sources are passenger transportation and network service income, with the latter steadily increasing in proportion [29][30]. Financial Performance - The company reported a record high operating revenue of over RMB 42 billion in 2024, with a net profit exceeding RMB 12 billion, indicating a strong recovery from the pandemic. The revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.223 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.16% [42][44]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 45.4%, down from 51.1% in 2019, primarily due to changes in passenger flow structure post-pandemic [44]. Industry Context - The high-speed rail industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with passenger volume expected to exceed 3.2 billion in 2024, making it one of the most preferred modes of transportation for the public [57][61]. - The ongoing market-oriented reforms in high-speed rail ticket pricing are expected to enhance revenue generation, with the company implementing a differentiated pricing strategy that offers competitive advantages over air travel [64][65].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the three major telecom operators in China—China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom—are transitioning from traditional communication providers to "AI infrastructure providers, industry enablers, and security guardians," significantly contributing to the digital transformation of the economy and society [1][3]. - The integration of AI into various sectors is seen as a key driver of the new technological revolution and industrial transformation, with telecom operators playing a crucial role in this evolution [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that telecom operators will significantly benefit from the performance growth and value reassessment brought by intelligent computing services under the AI wave. It recommends focusing on the three major operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as their partnerships with computing service providers such as Runze Technology, Pingzhi Information, Zhongbei Communication, ZTE, Fenghuo Communication, and Unisplendour [3]. Industry Developments - The report emphasizes the practical AI capabilities demonstrated by the telecom operators at WAIC 2025, showcasing their role as a "digital infrastructure national team" and their technological leadership in building a smart service ecosystem that covers both industry and people's livelihoods [3]. - The collaboration between computing power and network innovation is highlighted as a core logic for the operators' computing infrastructure, leading to significant breakthroughs in computing resource utilization and efficiency [3]. Infrastructure Investment - In 2025, the three major operators are expected to increase their investments in computing infrastructure, with China Mobile planning to invest 37.3 billion RMB in this area. Both China Telecom and China Unicom are projected to see over 20% year-on-year growth in their computing investments [3]. - The report notes that the domestic server procurement by China Unicom has exceeded 90% for domestic servers, while China Mobile has the largest single liquid-cooled intelligent computing center among global operators, with over 85% of its computing power being domestically sourced [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of Huawei's Ascend 384 super node, which represents a shift in the domestic AI industry from a chip-centric approach to a system-coordinated optimization strategy. This development showcases the robust growth momentum of the domestic computing power industry chain [3][6]. - The Ascend 384 super node, consisting of 12 computing cabinets and 4 bus cabinets, integrates 384 Ascend 910C NPUs and 192 Kunpeng CPUs, achieving a theoretical performance close to twice that of NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72. It provides 300 PFLOPS of BF16 computing power, addressing the bottlenecks in large model training through high-speed interconnect technology [3][6]. - The report emphasizes the strong order fulfillment capability of the Ascend platform, which has been widely applied in high-computing scenarios across various sectors, including finance, power, transportation, and government [3][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Development Trends - The report notes that the domestic AI computing power industry is expanding, driven by the increasing demand for controllable AI infrastructure amid high-end chip shortages and export restrictions. The success of the Ascend 384 super node demonstrates the feasibility of achieving a closed-loop in the domestic computing power industry chain [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in the domestic AI computing power network infrastructure, focusing on telecom operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as server and switch equipment manufacturers like ZTE, Unisoc, Inspur, and Ruijie Networks [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that significant investments from major players like Alibaba, which plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud computing and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, will open up larger market opportunities for domestic computing power solutions [3][6].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 8 月 1 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3573.21 | (1.18) | | 深证成指 | 11009.77 | (1.73) | | 沪深 300 | 4075.59 | (1.82) | | 中小 100 | 6833.61 | (1.84) | | 创业板指 | 2328.31 | (1.66) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | 0.39 | 钢铁 | (4.08) | | 通信 | 0.06 | 有色金属 | (3.19) | | 综合 | (0.29) | 房地产 | (3.14) | | 国防军工 | (0.39) | 煤炭 | (2.72) | | 银行 | (0.50) | 非银金融 | (2.57) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20250801 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】"十四五"收官，"十五五"开局*张晓娇 朱启兵。中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the federal funds rate as expected, with two dissenters advocating a 25 - basis - point cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a September rate cut, and after the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently. The Fed will make decisions based on future data and has left room to delay rate cuts [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Outcomes - The Fed's July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4 - 1/4 to 4 - 1/2 percent. Governors Bowman and Waller voted against, preferring a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was in line with their previous statements [3][8]. - After the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose by 6, 5, and 2 basis points respectively. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December according to CME FedWatch dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. Powell's Press Conference Key Information Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell emphasized that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is in the early stage, with monthly tariff revenue reaching $30 billion, and only a small part borne by exporters. Upstream companies and retailers plan to pass on costs to consumers [5]. - He believed that there is still a long way to assess the full impact of tariffs, suggesting that there may not be a clear judgment even in September [5]. - He stated that the Fed "looking through" temporary inflation only means not raising rates, not a reason for rate cuts, and the Fed will ensure the "one - time" nature of the impact [5]. Labor Market - The labor market is robust but has downward risks. Although new job growth has slowed significantly, the unemployment rate is low, and indicators such as the quit rate and the ratio of job openings to the unemployed are relatively stable. However, the low unemployment rate is due to both a slowdown in labor demand and a reduction in labor supply caused by immigration policies [5]. Economic Growth - Powell downplayed the recognition of "moderate" economic growth slowdown in the meeting statement, saying that the weakening of GDP and final private consumption was in line with expectations. He reiterated that policy focuses on the dual goals of "inflation and employment," suggesting that as long as the job market is stable, the growth slowdown is not enough to trigger a policy shift [6]. Uncertainty - Powell thought the level of uncertainty was the same as in June. Although the current estimate of tariff levels has converged, future uncertainty is still high, and the meeting statement removed the expression of "reduced uncertainty" [6]. Inflation - Powell expected that excluding tariffs, current inflation remains above the 2% target. The composition of inflation pressure has changed, with sticky service inflation easing and tariff increases pushing up prices of some goods [6]. Fed Independence - Powell firmly stated that the Fed will not consider government fiscal needs to maintain its independence, warning that if the Fed loses independence, the government could manipulate rate cuts to influence elections [7]. Future Policy Outlook - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its current policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently [7]. - There will be two rounds of employment and inflation data before September, and the Fed will make decisions based on future data, leaving room to delay rate cuts [7]. Suggestions - Powell's statements seem to be somewhat inconsistent with the economic assessment in the FOMC statement. It is recommended to follow the statements of other voting members to determine if this reflects the overall tendency of the committee [7]. - Powell's avoidance of giving a September rate - cut guidance may trigger stronger pressure from the Trump administration [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant breakthrough in the US-EU trade negotiations, with a new agreement that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US and a commitment from the EU to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in energy products [2][3] - The agreement is seen as a risk release event that may help restore global asset risk appetite, although there are concerns about its long-term stability due to perceived imbalances in the agreement [3] - The report notes that the agreement could indirectly influence the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, as the US adopts a strategy of tariff adjustments and high-value procurement orders [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that the recent US-EU trade agreement may lead to a rotation in the A-share market towards consumer sectors, supported by domestic fiscal expansion and new cash subsidy policies for families with children under three years old [3] - The cash subsidy policy is expected to have a marginal stimulating effect on consumer spending, benefiting sectors such as baby products, dairy, and retail [3] - The current market environment is characterized as a "strong expectation, weak reality" phase, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for investment opportunities [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a shift from incremental expectations to the implementation and refinement of existing policies, highlighting the need for a stable and flexible macroeconomic policy framework [2][3] - The report notes that the recent meeting acknowledged the positive performance of the domestic economy since the beginning of the year, while also recognizing ongoing risks and challenges [2] - The macro policy tone has shifted to "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," focusing on the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to achieve annual economic and social development goals [2][3] Group 2 - The report identifies key policy directions, including boosting consumption to unleash domestic demand potential, fostering new growth points in service consumption, and accelerating the development of internationally competitive emerging industries [2] - It also mentions the need to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises and manage capacity in key industries, indicating a more market-oriented approach to "anti-involution" policies [2] - The report anticipates that enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market will be a primary focus, aiming to attract more incremental funds and promote the listing of innovative enterprises [2] Group 3 - Overall, the report presents a positive evaluation of the domestic economy and capital market performance, emphasizing the importance of policy implementation and timing [2] - The focus on service consumption, project implementation, and capacity management in key industries will be the main directions for macro policy in the second half of the year [2] - The report suggests that while the market may face short-term risks of expectation adjustments, the underlying support from the funding environment and weak recovery in fundamentals keeps the downside risks manageable [2]

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, contributing significantly to economic performance[3] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[3] - The need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy was highlighted, including accelerating government bond issuance and promoting a decline in social financing costs[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report stresses the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption, particularly through recently introduced childcare subsidies[4] - Focus on effective investment and the implementation of policies to optimize market competition and regulate local investment attraction behaviors[4] Risk Management - Key areas for risk prevention include addressing risks in the real estate sector, managing local government debt, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets[4] - The report identifies several external risks, including uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic expectations[3] Strategic Outlook - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will focus on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a critical transition period for economic strategy[2] - The meeting acknowledged the complex and changing development environment, emphasizing the need to leverage domestic advantages while adapting to external challenges[2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising demand for nuclear fusion power sources, driven by advancements in fusion technology and increasing investment in the sector [3][6][8] - The report highlights the high technical and customer barriers in the nuclear fusion power supply industry, indicating a favorable environment for companies involved in this field [8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3615.72, reflecting a slight increase of 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.77% to 11203.03 [4] - The report also details the performance of various industry sectors, noting that the steel sector saw a rise of 2.05%, while the electric equipment sector experienced a decline of 2.22% [5] Industry Focus - The nuclear fusion power supply is identified as a critical component in fusion devices, with the need to optimize heating temperature and energy confinement time to enhance fusion performance [3][6] - The report discusses the specific requirements for different fusion technology routes, such as Tokamak and linear devices, which demand high-performance power supplies with strict specifications [7][8] - The report notes that the cost of power supplies can account for 30%-50% of the overall cost of fusion devices, underscoring the importance of this segment in the fusion industry [6][7] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that as the investment climate for nuclear fusion improves, there will be increased demand for specialized power supplies, presenting potential investment opportunities for companies in this sector [8] - The report indicates that domestic capabilities for core components of power supplies have improved, reducing reliance on imports and enhancing competitive positioning [7][8]