Export Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $471.89 billion[2] - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Exports to ASEAN and EU supported the growth, contributing 2.5 and 1.8 percentage points to the year-on-year growth in May, respectively[3] Import Trends - Imports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous period[2] - In May 2025, imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.22 billion, an increase of $7.04 billion from the previous month[2] Sector Insights - Mechanical and electrical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits and general machinery growing by 17.5% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively[5] - Despite a decline in overall export growth, there is potential for recovery in exports following the Geneva trade talks, which eased some tariff pressures[5] - The urgency for domestic demand expansion remains high due to weak industrial demand and price stagnation affecting corporate profitability[4]

Export Data Summary - From January to May, China's exports increased by 6.0% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 4.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $471.89 billion[2] - In May alone, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The trade surplus for May was $103.22 billion, an increase of $7.04 billion from the previous month[2] Regional Contributions - ASEAN and EU contributed positively to China's export growth in May, with contributions of 2.5 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively[2] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 34.5%, contributing negatively by 5.0 percentage points to overall export growth[2] Product Performance - Key export products such as integrated circuits and general machinery maintained strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 17.5% and 8.2%, respectively[4] - Despite overall export growth, there was a noted "price for volume" situation in categories like footwear, steel, and automotive products, indicating weak industrial demand[3] Economic Outlook - The urgency for "expanding domestic demand" remains high due to weak internal demand and price stagnation, which may negatively impact corporate profitability[3] - Risks include the potential for intensified economic recession in Europe and the US, as well as increasing complexity in international relations[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][50]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 2.27% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 12th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. It outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.48 percentage points [2][13]. - The travel and tourism market showed good performance during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a year-on-year increase in travel volume and spending, although the average spending per person slightly decreased. There are expectations for further growth in travel demand during the summer [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's sub-sectors, including tourism and retail, all experienced growth, with the highest increase in tourism and scenic spots at 4.15% [17]. - Domestic travel during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 119 million trips, a 5.7% increase year-on-year, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% [5][20]. - The adjusted PE ratio for the social services industry is 32.07 times, which is at the 23.19% historical percentile, compared to the CSI 300's 11.88 times at the 41.00% historical percentile [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance certainty in the travel chain and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others. It also highlights hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery and policies promoting employment [5][43].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The shipping rates on the Asia-Brazil route have surged by 100% due to a shortage of available vessels and containers, with rates reaching $3,300 per container [2][12] - The global new ship order volume has dropped to a four-year low, with only 439 vessels ordered in the first four months of 2025, a significant decrease from 980 vessels in the same period of 2024 [2][13] - During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 5.63 million, with a total of 101 new international air cargo routes opened in the first five months [2][14] - The express delivery industry saw a 15.4% year-on-year increase in package volume during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 1.511 billion packages collected nationwide [2][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The Asia-Brazil shipping rates increased by 100% due to a shortage of vessels and containers, influenced by trade policies and seasonal demand [12] - The civil aviation passenger volume during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 5.63 million, with 101 new international air cargo routes opened [14] - The express delivery industry experienced a 15.4% year-on-year growth in package volume during the Dragon Boat Festival [21] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking - In May 2025, domestic cargo flight operations decreased by 6.76%, while international flights increased by 26.98% [33] - The shipping price index for domestic trade decreased, while dry bulk freight rates increased [41] - The express delivery business volume in April 2025 rose by 19.10% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 10.80% [52] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook with May CPI slightly above consensus expectations while PPI fell short, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures primarily driven by energy prices [3][8][10] - The report identifies a positive trend in high-end equipment manufacturing prices, contrasting with the weakness in energy and raw material prices [3][11] Economic Overview - In May, the CPI experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, primarily due to a 6.1% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.47 percentage points of the CPI decline [9][10] - The core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.5%, indicating resilience in the service sector despite overall weak domestic demand [8][9] - The PPI saw a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with production materials down 4.0% and living materials down 1.4%, reflecting international input factors and domestic price declines [10][11] Market Performance - The report lists key stocks to watch, including SF Holding (顺丰控股), Anji Technology (安集科技), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [2] - The performance of various industry indices shows pharmaceuticals leading with a 2.30% increase, while food and beverage sectors experienced a decline of 0.43% [5] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the recovery in certain sectors, particularly high-end manufacturing, which is seeing price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [11] - The food and beverage sector's performance is noted as weaker, with a decline in prices, contrasting with the resilience observed in the pharmaceutical sector [5][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [32]. Core Insights - The collaboration between NVIDIA and MediaTek to develop high-performance APU is expected to innovate the gaming laptop market and capture the enterprise-level AI PC market [4][11]. - SoftBank and Intel's partnership aims to create AI storage chips that could reduce power consumption by 50%, potentially revolutionizing AI infrastructure [14][15]. - The launch of the Huawei and JAC Motors' ZunJie S800 showcases China's strength in smart automotive technology, enhancing its global competitiveness [16]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - Kingsoft Office plans to acquire a 31.9769% stake in Digital Network Technology for approximately 25.37 million yuan, achieving full ownership [3]. - Chuangye Heima announced its participation in acquiring a 36.6015% stake in Beijing Banxintong Technology for 10.25 million yuan, with a payment plan involving a 30% upfront payment [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for companies related to AI PCs and gaming PCs, including Zhongke Chuangda, Softcom Power, Zhiwei Intelligent, Raytheon Technology, and Yidao Information, due to the anticipated impact of the new APU [4]. Industry News - The global gaming laptop shipment is projected to grow by 9% year-on-year in 2024, with an expected shipment of 9.2 million units in China by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% [12]. - The collaboration between SoftBank and Intel is expected to address the energy consumption challenges in AI computing, with a total investment of approximately 1.5 billion yuan [14][15].

Inflation Overview - May CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth was slightly below expectations[1] - May CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 6.1% year-on-year decline in energy prices, which contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline[2] - May PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with production materials down 4.0% and living materials down 1.4%[20] Price Trends - Energy prices fell 1.7% month-on-month, accounting for nearly 70% of the CPI's month-on-month decline[6] - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was less than the seasonal decline of 1.1 percentage points, impacting CPI by approximately 0.04 percentage points[5] - Core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.5%[4] Sector Performance - High-end equipment manufacturing prices showed an upward trend, contrasting with the overall weakness in energy and raw material prices[1] - The decline in CPI reflects a mixed performance across sectors, with food prices showing a potential upward trend and strong service consumption demand[7] - International factors continue to influence CPI growth, highlighting the need to monitor durable goods price changes[7] Risks and Outlook - Risks include the potential for global inflation to rise again, a rapid slowdown in the European and American economies, and increasing complexity in international situations[24]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding. The transaction area for second-hand homes has also decreased, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines widening [6][17] - The inventory of new homes has decreased on a year-on-year basis, while the de-stocking cycle has increased month-on-month and decreased year-on-year [6][42] - The land market shows a decrease in premium rates month-on-month, while total land transaction area has increased significantly [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of May 31 to June 6, 2025, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 18,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 30.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [18] - The new home transaction area was 189.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 32.7% and a year-on-year decline of 16.6% [29] - Transaction volume and area for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed significant declines [20][23] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1,819.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 76.4% and a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [6][42] - The total land transaction price was 37.24 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 44.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [6][42] - The average floor price of land decreased by 18.2% month-on-month and 4.4% year-on-year [6][42] 3. Policy Overview - Local governments are implementing various measures to stabilize the real estate market, including tax support and housing policies aimed at boosting consumption and optimizing housing supply [2] 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, as well as those showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024 [7]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 - 总量周报 2025年6月9日 周度金融市场跟踪 中美元首通电话,本周股市普遍上涨;债券市场 先抑后扬,窄幅震荡(6月2日-6月6) ■ 股票方面,本周 A 股迎来普涨,小盘股继续跑赢大盘股。全周累计看,沪深 300 本 周上涨 0.9%,中证 2000 上涨 2.3%。港股恒生指数本周上涨 2.2%。行业方面,本周 31个一级行业有26个上涨,通信、有色金属和电子行业领涨,家用电器、食品饮料 2 个消费类行业领跌。医药行业本周上涨 1.1%连续 7 周上涨。周内看. 本周由于端 午假期仅4个交易日。美东时间6月1日中午新闻报道白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西 特在接受采访时表示预计中美元首将于本周就关税问题进行会谈。周二至周四(6月 3-5日)市场在此预期下总体上涨,主要指数连续上涨3天,中证2000更是在周四收 至4月以来的最高点。周四(6月5日)晚间中美元首通电话,预期兑现后,周五(6 月6日)市场小幅回调。美股本周在中美元首通话预期以及周五非农数据超预期影响 下整体上涨。标普 500 指数上涨 1.5%,周五收盘标普 500 指数重回 6000点。纳斯达 克 100 指数上涨2 ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 A 股量价回升，小盘成长重获市场偏好 股票市场概览 本周 A 股上涨，港股上涨，美股上涨，其他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利 风格拥挤度当前仍处于历史较低位置，近期快速下降。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度持续处于历史低位；大盘 风格拥挤度下降至历史低位。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：近期微盘股拥挤度快速下降至历史低位；基金 重仓拥挤度及超额累计净值处于历史低位。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为通信、有色金属、电子；领跌的行业为商贸零售、 食品饮料、交通运输。本周成交热度最高的行业为综合、综合金融、 食品饮料；成交热度最低的行业为石油石化、煤炭、电子。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为商贸零售、纺织服装、房 地产，居后的行业为医药、银行、电力设备及新能源。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率上涨，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人 ...