Search documents
5月债市调研问卷点评:长债偏好有所提升
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 11:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of April and looking forward to May, investors' preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased, while their attention to credit products has decreased month - on - month, but there may be a characteristic of "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of April, six mainstream expectations of investors for the May bond market are summarized: preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly; Trump's tariff policy may promote the early implementation of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; the current expectation of monetary easing is still strong, with most investors expecting an RRR cut in May - June and an interest rate cut more likely in the third quarter; most investors believe that the bond market will strengthen overall in May, and the probability of a bull - flattening curve is high; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are narrow, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors are neutral in practice and prefer to keep their positions basically stable, possibly showing "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Survey Background - A bond market questionnaire "What to expect from the May bond market?" was released on April 25, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the May 2025 bond market. As of 24:00 on April 27, a total of 331 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors such as bank self - operation, securities firm self - operation, public funds/special accounts, and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 48% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is below 1.60%, and 45% think it is between 1.60% - 1.70% (inclusive). 76% of investors believe the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may be within 1.80%, and 11% think it may be between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). Most investors expect the bond market in May to trade around the tariff policy, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is unlikely to return to the previous high in April [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May will be less than 1.8%, and 43% think it is between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). 53% of investors believe the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May is between 1.90% - 2.00% (inclusive), and 31% think it is within 1.90%. The overall bond market in May may be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. 3.3 Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - 62% of investors think the economic trend in the second quarter will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening", a significant increase compared with the April questionnaire results. 22% of investors think it will show the characteristic of "year - on - year recovery but month - on - month weaker than the seasonal level". 10% of investors think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month in line with the seasonal level", and 5% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month exceeding the seasonal level", a significant decrease compared with the April questionnaire results. The deviation between the economic fundamental expectation and the reality needs a certain verification period [19]. 3.4 Expectations for RRR and Interest Rate Cuts - **RRR Cut**: 66% of investors think an RRR cut will occur in May - June, and 17% think it will be in the third quarter. Investors have a high expectation for an RRR cut and expect it to happen earlier [21]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: 49% of investors think an interest rate cut will occur in the third quarter, 31% think it will be in May - June. 12% of investors think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Investors' expectation for an interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the proportion of those who think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025 has decreased significantly [21]. 3.5 Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Bond Market - 46% of investors think it may promote the early implementation of RRR and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 27% think the subsequent focus will be on the expectation of tariff policy cooling, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. 15% think it may trigger non - US countries to impose tariffs on China, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 12% think it may strengthen the policy - makers' determination to stabilize the capital market, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Overall, investors generally think the subsequent impact of Trump's tariff policy on the bond market is still positive [23]. 3.6 Expectations for the May Bond Market行情 - 27% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and show a bull - flattening trend in May. 26% think it will strengthen overall and show a bull - steepening trend. 16% think it is difficult to judge the trend of the interest rate curve in May. 10% think the short - end of the interest rate curve will be strong and the long - end will be weak, and 10% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Overall, more investors are optimistic about the May bond market, but there is some divergence between the expectations of a bull - flattening and a bull - steepening curve [25]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 49% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. 23% think they should hold cash and wait, and then add positions after the market回调 to the expected level. 13% think they can start adding positions. 11% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. 4% think they should reduce the duration to control risks. Most investors are neutral in practice, and keeping positions stable is the mainstream view [29]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Varieties in May - 18% and 17% of investors think the opportunities for long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are relatively certain. 15%, 10%, and 10% of investors are more optimistic about medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and local government bonds respectively. About 9% of investors prefer medium - low - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products such as interest - rate bonds, certificates of deposit, and government bonds, and their preference for credit products has decreased month - on - month. The preferred varieties have shifted from the short - end to the long - end and ultra - long - end [32]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in May - 31% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the main pricing logics for the May bond market. 16% and 15% of investors think fiscal stimulus, government bond issuance, and fundamental data such as real estate and PMI are the main pricing logics. 13% of investors think the implementation of the US tariff policy is the main pricing logic. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the most concerned factors for investors [34].
云南白药(000538):业绩略超预期,持续挖潜增效
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 10:54
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yunnan Baiyao is maintained as "Buy" [2][5] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 10.841 billion yuan (up 0.62% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.935 billion yuan (up 13.67% year-on-year) [5] - The industrial segment showed steady growth, with a revenue increase of 7.63% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 68.34%, reflecting a 1.76 percentage point increase [5] - The company is focusing on strategic growth through both internal enhancements and external investments, aiming to tap into high-potential segments and expand its business structure [5] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 40.033 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.36%, and expected to reach 43.753 billion yuan by 2027 [2][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 4.749 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.554 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.26% [2][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.66 yuan in 2024 to 3.67 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 21.76 to 15.76 over the same period [2][6]
华鲁恒升(600426):点评报告:产品降价业绩承压,25Q1业绩有望触底
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 10:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.77 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 3% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 34% year-over-year and 17% quarter-over-quarter [1][3] - The company is a leading player in the coal chemical industry in China, with a significant low-cost moat. The extension of the industrial chain and product expansion at the Jingzhou base are expected to drive steady growth in performance. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.036 billion, 4.666 billion, and 5.120 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 3.41%, 15.62%, and 9.73%, respectively [3][4] - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability due to product price declines, but cost reductions are expected to improve product price differentials in Q2, driven by industry recovery [8][9] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 37.041 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 8.22%. The net profit is projected to be 4.036 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.41% [4][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.90 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.59 [4][9] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 16.3% and 9.9%, respectively, indicating a decline in profitability due to lower product prices [8][9]
佩蒂股份(300673):2024年报、2025一季报点评:发力自主品牌,全球化产能布局对冲扰动
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 10:49
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, and a net profit of 182 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - The gross margin improved to 29.4% in 2024, an increase of over 10 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix optimization and enhanced capacity utilization in overseas bases [1] - The company plans to focus on its proprietary brands and create blockbuster products to drive growth in 2025 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, revenue from various segments included: 505 million yuan from pet skin chews (+19.1%), 608 million yuan from plant-based chews (+43.7%), 403 million yuan from nutritious meat snacks (+26.6%), and 118 million yuan from staple and wet food (-43.6%) [1] - Quarterly performance showed a revenue of 336 million yuan in Q4 2024 (down 32.1% year-on-year) and 329 million yuan in Q1 2025 (down 14.4% year-on-year), with net profits of 27 million yuan and 22 million yuan respectively [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 1.914 billion yuan, 2.163 billion yuan, and 2.387 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.34%, 13.04%, and 10.37% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 199 million yuan, 221 million yuan, and 251 million yuan, with growth rates of 9.16%, 11.15%, and 13.53% respectively [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company reported domestic sales of 288 million yuan in 2024, primarily driven by proprietary brands, which saw a 33% increase in revenue, with the Jueyan brand growing by 52% [3] - The overseas capacity utilization remains high, with factories in Vietnam operating at full capacity and significant improvements in profitability from the Cambodia factory [2][9]
宁波银行(002142):存贷实现高增,不良生成放缓
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 10:48
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved over 5% growth in both revenue and profit, with significant increases in loans and deposits, while the generation of non-performing loans slowed down [1][2] - The revenue growth rate of 5.6% in Q1 2025 was a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to 2024, and the net profit growth rate of 5.8% was a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The company is expected to achieve mid-to-high single-digit growth in revenue and profit for the year 2025, supported by strong loan and deposit growth in Q1 [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - Q1 2025 revenue was 18,495 million, up 5.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 7,417 million, up 5.8% year-on-year [1][13] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% as of the end of Q1 2025, with a provisioning coverage ratio decreasing by 19 percentage points to 371% [1][5] Profitability Growth - The company's net interest margin decreased by 8 basis points to 1.78% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a larger decline in asset yields compared to improvements in liability costs [4] - The increase in impairment losses was significant, with a year-on-year growth of 26.5% in Q1 2025 [2][4] Loan and Deposit Growth - In Q1 2025, the net increase in loans and deposits accounted for 73% and 128% of the total net increase for the entire year of 2024, respectively [3] Asset Quality - The generation of non-performing loans showed a slowdown, with the TTM non-performing loan generation rate decreasing by 9 basis points to 1.18% [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 is 7.71%, 7.83%, and 8.69%, respectively, with corresponding BPS of 34.19, 37.93, and 42.00 [6] - The target price is set at 34.19 CNY per share, corresponding to a PB of 1.00 for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 41% from the current price [6]
扬农化工(600486):一季报点评:Q1业绩同比微增,农药景气有望触底回升
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 09:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance shows a slight year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit, with revenue reaching 3.24 billion yuan, up 2%, and net profit at 430 million yuan, up 1% [1] - The core products' prices continue to decline, but there are signs of potential recovery in the agricultural chemical industry as inventory levels decrease and seasonal demand begins [3] - The company is optimizing its product layout through project advancements, and recent policy changes may catalyze a recovery in the agricultural chemical market [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company's raw materials and formulations revenue were 1.81 billion yuan (up 4.75% YoY) and 870 million yuan (up 1.10% YoY), respectively. Raw material sales volume was 28,700 tons (up 14.82% YoY) with an average price of 63,000 yuan/ton (down 8.77% YoY). Formulation sales volume was 15,400 tons (up 2.77% YoY) with an average price of 56,600 yuan/ton (down 1.63% YoY) [2] - The company's expense ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%, with gross and net profit margins at 24.6% and 13.4%, respectively [2] Market Outlook - The prices of key products such as high-efficiency chlorpyrifos and glyphosate have seen declines of 1.5%, 8.5%, and 9.1% YoY, but some products are beginning to stabilize and rise in price due to seasonal demand [3] - The completion of the first phase of the Huludao project ahead of schedule and the implementation of the "one certificate, one product" policy are expected to reduce market homogenization and improve competition [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.482 billion, 1.764 billion, and 2.025 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 19.06%, and 14.79%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are 14, 12, and 10 times [5]
新宙邦(300037):氟化工快速增长,业绩保持韧性
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 08:24
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.002 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, up 39.3% year-on-year but down 4.45% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The growth in organic fluorine and the increase in electrolyte volume, despite a price drop, have contributed to the company's resilient performance [2] - The company is deepening its international market presence and expects accelerated growth in organic fluorine products, particularly following the exit of 3M from the fluorinated liquid production [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.002 billion yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by the growth in capacitor chemicals, electrolytes, and organic fluorine sales [2] - The average price of electrolytes in Q1 2025 was 19,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 24.55%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has invested in key raw materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and is expanding its global footprint with a new electrolyte base in Malaysia, enhancing its ability to respond to international customer demands [3] - The company anticipates significant growth in its fluorinated liquid products due to the closure of 3M's production capacity [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.198 billion, 1.541 billion, and 1.949 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.1, 14.8, and 11.7 [4]
天士力(600535):业绩符合预期,期待三九赋能
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 07:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 2.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 314 million yuan, up 6.47% year-on-year. The pharmaceutical industrial revenue showed slight growth, and with the expected normalization of product shipments and the dual empowerment from China Resources Sanjiu, the growth rate is anticipated to improve quarterly in 2025 [5][6] - The company has a robust R&D pipeline with 98 products under development, including 33 innovative drugs. The completion of the transfer of control to China Resources Sanjiu is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and development prospects [5][6] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.165 billion, 1.411 billion, and 1.677 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.94, and 1.12 yuan, indicating strong growth potential [2][5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue of 9.043 billion yuan, a 6.41% increase from 2024, and a net profit of 1.165 billion yuan, a 21.87% increase from 2024. The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 23.20 in 2024 to 19.04 in 2025 [2][5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 66.62%, with a net profit margin of 11.50%, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year [5][6] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 1.251 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a healthy cash flow position [6]
杭氧股份(002430):一季报业绩超预期,期待工业气体龙头周期底部向上
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 07:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year. The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 21.5% [1] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the industrial gas sector, benefiting from both defensive and offensive attributes, with expectations for a recovery in the gas industry following a challenging 2024 [2] - The company has a strong growth trajectory driven by demand growth, market share expansion, and improved profitability, with long-term profit potential expected to increase several times [2][3] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Revenue reached 3.56 billion yuan, a 7.9% increase year-on-year - Net profit was 230 million yuan, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth - Gross margin stood at 21.5%, up 1.6 percentage points, while net margin improved to 7% [1] Orders and Contracts - As of the end of Q1, the company's contract liabilities were 2.84 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year - The company won a bid for a coal-to-olefins project in Xinjiang, which includes two air separation units with a total capacity of 220,000 m³/h [1] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from stable growth in pipeline gas, which is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, and aims to increase its market share in the third-party gas supply market significantly [2] - The retail gas segment is positioned for potential growth as gas prices are at historical lows, with significant upside if the economy recovers [2] - The company is the leading domestic manufacturer of air separation equipment, with expectations for steady performance driven by demand from coal chemical projects and overseas markets [3] Financial Forecast - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.067 billion, 1.298 billion, and 1.513 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17% respectively [4]
瑞丰银行:盈利显韧性-20250429
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 05:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 earnings show resilience, with a slight recovery in net interest margin, while other non-interest income has been a drag [1] - Revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed by 10.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 6.7% year-on-year, with a slowdown of 4.6 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][3] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.97% at the end of Q1 2025, while the provision coverage ratio increased to 326%, up by 5.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [2][5] Revenue Overview - Revenue growth has slowed due to a deceleration in asset expansion and fluctuations in other non-interest income [3] - Total assets grew by 11.1% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 11.7%, although the growth rates have decreased compared to the end of 2024 [3] - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.45%, up by 5 basis points from the previous quarter, supported by improved funding costs [4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained unchanged at 0.97%, while the attention loan ratio increased slightly to 1.54% [5] - The true non-performing loan generation rate for Q1 2025 was 0.98%, showing a slight increase [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2025, 7.1% in 2026, and 8.2% in 2027, with corresponding book values per share of 10.24, 11.14, and 12.11 yuan [6] - The target price is set at 6.48 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 23% based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.63 for 2025 [6]