Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 179.18 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.00% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 75.28% to 9.83 billion yuan [17][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, down 12.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.81 billion yuan, up 1.45% [17] - The company is experiencing pressure on electricity prices but is seeing improvements in costs, awaiting recovery in downstream electricity demand [1] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 179.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.00% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.83 billion yuan, an increase of 75.28% [17][11] - The basic earnings per share were 0.551 yuan, up 75.48% [17] Thermal Power Business - The average coal price for 2024 was 922.17 yuan per ton, down 1.37% year-on-year [20] - The thermal power segment contributed a net profit of 4.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.05% [27] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had a thermal power installed capacity of 75.63 million kilowatts, with 8.35 million kilowatts under construction [31] Hydropower Business - In 2024, hydropower generation was 59.47 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 7.93% year-on-year [32] - The hydropower segment contributed a net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.0% due to impairment provisions [37] - As of March 31, 2025, the hydropower installed capacity was 14.95 million kilowatts, with 4.92 million kilowatts under construction [41] New Energy Business - Wind power generation in 2024 was 20.18 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.01%, while solar power generation was 11.28 billion kilowatt-hours, up 95.89% [4] - The new energy segment contributed a net profit of 1.38 billion yuan, down 21.1% year-on-year [48] - As of March 31, 2025, the installed capacity for wind power was 9.91 million kilowatts and for solar power was 15.90 million kilowatts [51] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 7.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.67% year-on-year, with expected earnings per share of 0.42 yuan [11][53] - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability due to sufficient long-term coal supply and overall robust performance as a leading power enterprise [53]

Market Overview - On May 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.47%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.22%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.23%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.83%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.62% [3][4] - The best-performing industries on May 21 were coal (+2.55%), non-ferrous metals (+2.05%), electric equipment (+1.11%), banking (+0.71%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.63%). The worst-performing industries were beauty care (-1.09%), electronics (-0.93%), media (-0.87%), social services (-0.87%), and machinery equipment (-0.83%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on May 21 was 12,143.73 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.427 billion HKD from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights - In the bond market, the strategy focuses on 5-7 year mid-term interest rate bonds and 2-3 year credit bonds, which are considered to have a balanced risk-reward profile. Opportunities for long-term bonds should be approached with caution until the risk-reward ratio improves [5] - Since late March, long-term bond yields have not significantly broken previous lows, indicating a consensus among market participants regarding psychological price points. Current long-term government bond yields have already priced in much information, making it unlikely for the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields to fall below 1.60% and 1.80%, respectively [5] - Market concerns regarding the volatility of funding prices are limiting the potential for a steepening yield curve. The current external nature of funding prices has led to uncertainty, preventing the curve from steepening as expected. Therefore, it is suggested to use 5-7 year interest rate bonds or 2-3 year credit bonds as a base to mitigate risks associated with long durations and unexpected funding price fluctuations [5]

Revenue Insights - In April 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 20,427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%[3] - Tax revenue for April was 18,106 billion yuan, also up by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a recovery from a 2.2% decline in March[3] - Non-tax revenue increased by 1.7% year-on-year, totaling 2,321 billion yuan, reflecting a high base effect from the previous year[3] Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure in April was 20,766 billion yuan, growing by 5.8% year-on-year[4] - For the first four months of 2025, total expenditure completed 31.5% of the annual budget, the fastest pace since 2020[4] - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (8.5% growth), education (7.4% growth), and health (3.9% growth), all exceeding the overall expenditure growth rate[4] Fiscal Policy and Market Outlook - The broad fiscal budget revenue completion rate for January-April was 25.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[2] - The government is prepared to issue special bonds to address potential uncertainties, focusing on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs[2] - The bond market is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with a potential 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis points interest rate reduction[2] Government Fund Budget Performance - In April, the government fund budget revenue grew by 8.1%, marking the first positive growth of the year[7] - Land use rights transfer income in April increased by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in the real estate market[7] - For the first four months, government fund budget expenditure totaled 26,136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%[10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On May 7, 2025, at the State Council Information Office press conference, Chairman Wu Qing and Governor Pan Gongsheng successively pointed out the development of science - and - technology innovation bonds. This was the third mention of science - and - technology innovation bonds in important meetings this year, highlighting the continuous policy support. With policy support, science - and - technology innovation bonds are expected to further expand to support the development of innovative enterprises, and the market may need to re - evaluate their investment value [4]. - Science - and - technology innovation bonds refer to bonds issued by enterprises in the science - and - technology innovation field with funds mainly used for science - and - technology innovation. They mainly include science - and - technology innovation notes and science - and - technology innovation corporate bonds. The core contents of the "Notice on Further Supporting the Issuance of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bonds to Serve New - quality Productivity" include expanding the issuer scope, introducing incremental funds such as social security funds and pensions, and optimizing the issuance and trading systems [4]. - Since their launch, the issuance scale of science - and - technology innovation bonds has been continuously increasing, with state - owned enterprises and central enterprises as the main issuers. As of May 19, 2025, the issuance amounts of industrial bonds, financial bonds, and urban investment bonds among science - and - technology innovation bonds this year were 453.6 billion yuan, 140 billion yuan, and 28.9 billion yuan respectively. In addition, 24 equity investment institutions have registered to issue science - and - technology innovation bonds, with an expected total scale of 15.5 billion yuan [4]. - The outstanding science - and - technology innovation bonds are mainly of medium - to - high grades and have a maturity of less than 3 years, and are mostly distributed in traditional industries such as building decoration and coal. Most industries' science - and - technology innovation bonds have a certain premium compared with ordinary bonds in the same industry, with higher premiums in industries such as food and beverage and pharmaceutical biology. The positive premium of science - and - technology innovation bonds is mainly related to the use of bond funds. They support high - risk science - and - technology innovation projects, so they have a premium compared with ordinary bonds [5]. - The main value of science - and - technology innovation bonds is to contribute increments to the bond market, thus alleviating the asset shortage problem to some extent. From January to May 20, 2025, the issuance of science - and - technology innovation bonds totaled 622.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 61%. The annual issuance is expected to be close to 1.9 trillion yuan. In terms of price, the average spread between science - and - technology innovation bonds and ordinary bonds issued by the same entity in the past month was close to 10bp. It is recommended to explore the premium investment opportunities of science - and - technology innovation bonds [5]. - Future points of attention for science - and - technology innovation bonds include the increase in issuance volume, the introduction of investment assessment, and the expansion of fund products [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory What is a Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond? - Policy changes: Since 2017, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have actively carried out pilot projects on dual - innovation bonds. In 2022, the official launch of science - and - technology innovation bonds was marked. In 2025, multiple policies were introduced to support the issuance of science - and - technology innovation bonds, and it is expected to expand under continuous policy optimization [10]. - Concept and variety analysis: Science - and - technology innovation bonds mainly include science - and - technology innovation notes and science - and - technology innovation corporate bonds. They have differences in issuer identification and use of raised funds. Science - and - technology innovation notes are listed on the inter - bank market, while science - and - technology innovation corporate bonds are listed on the exchange [12][14]. - Contribution to small and medium - sized private enterprises: The launch of science - and - technology innovation bonds aims to guide funds to the science - and - technology innovation field, change the current issuance pattern dominated by large state - owned enterprises and upstream industry enterprises, and help private enterprises and small and medium - sized science - and - technology innovation enterprises finance through the bond market [15]. Primary Market: The Supply of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bonds has Increased Significantly - Expansion of issuance scale: Since their launch, the issuance scale of science - and - technology innovation bonds has been continuously increasing. From 2022 to 2024, the issuance scales were 243.5 billion yuan, 743.5 billion yuan, and 1.1783 trillion yuan respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 120%. As of May 20, 2025, the total issuance scale was 2.7877 trillion yuan [22]. - Recent strong demand: Recently, policy support for science - and - technology innovation bonds has been strong, and market subscription enthusiasm has increased. In May, the average subscription multiple of science - and - technology innovation bonds increased by 1.4 times compared with April, indicating a significant increase in investors' allocation demand [24]. - Supply from the perspective of issuer type: Science - and - technology innovation bonds are mainly issued by state - owned enterprises and central enterprises, accounting for 46% and 43% respectively. Industrial issuers account for 92% of the issuance scale, while urban investment issuers account for only 8% [28]. - Supply from the industry perspective: The issuers of science - and - technology innovation bonds are mostly from traditional industries. The building decoration industry has the largest issuance scale, followed by public utilities, coal, and non - ferrous metals. The issuance scale of science - and - technology industries such as communication, electronics, and computer needs to be improved. The urban investment platforms with high issuance amounts are industrial investment platforms [34]. Secondary Market: Seize the Investment Opportunities of Premium Science - and - Technology Innovation Bonds - Reasons for institutional purchases: Institutions' core motivations for allocating science - and - technology innovation bonds include coupon advantages, the expectation of regulatory optimization of investment - end assessment, and the potentially lower default risk compared with ordinary corporate credit bonds [41]. - Characteristics of outstanding bonds: There are currently 1,782 outstanding science - and - technology innovation bonds with a total amount of 1.7907 trillion yuan. They are mainly of medium - to - high grades, with AA - grade and above accounting for 94%. The remaining maturity is mainly less than 3 years, accounting for 65% [44]. - Valuation distribution: The outstanding industrial science - and - technology innovation bonds total 1.5684 trillion yuan, mainly distributed in industries such as building decoration, coal, and public utilities. High - valuation science - and - technology innovation bonds are mainly in industries such as basic chemicals, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology. The outstanding urban investment science - and - technology innovation bonds total 181.2 billion yuan. Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Hubei have the largest outstanding scales. Chongqing, Shandong, and Shaanxi have relatively high valuations [53]. - Premium analysis: Most industries' science - and - technology innovation bonds have a certain premium compared with ordinary bonds in the same industry. The premiums of the food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, and communication industries are all above 30bp, while the valuations of science - and - technology innovation bonds in the media, automobile, and computer industries are significantly lower than those of ordinary bonds. Among urban investment provinces, Jilin's urban investment science - and - technology innovation bonds have an obvious premium compared with those of the same province [55]. - Reasons for the positive premium: Compared with other labeled bonds, the positive premium of science - and - technology innovation bonds is mainly related to the use of bond funds. Science - and - technology innovation bonds are mainly used to support science - and - technology innovation projects with high uncertainty, so investors require a credit risk premium, resulting in a higher valuation than ordinary bonds issued by the same entity [60].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 783 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.34% to 66.41 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.66%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 48.82% to 10.77 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on functional devices and has expanded its product line in the semiconductor sector, including CMOS protective films and silicon-based OLED protective films, which have successfully passed customer testing and are entering mass production [2] - The company is advancing its composite electrolyte business for lithium batteries, having completed the first phase of its new composite material project and is expected to achieve mass production soon [3] - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary for optical modules aims to create a full-chain production capability, with the first production line completed and self-developed silicon photonic chips entering the testing phase [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.14 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 45.77% [9] - The net profit is expected to rebound to 156 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 135.33% compared to 2024 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.49 yuan in 2024 to 1.16 yuan in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 783 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.34% to 66.41 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.66%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 48.82% to 10.77 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on functional devices and has expanded its product line in the semiconductor sector, including CMOS protective films and silicon-based OLED protective films, which have successfully passed customer testing and are entering mass production [2] - The company is advancing its composite electrolyte business for lithium batteries, having completed the first phase of a new composite material project and is expected to gain significant orders as production scales up [3] - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary for optical modules aims to create a full production capacity for high-speed optical modules, with the first batch of self-developed silicon photonic chips entering the testing phase [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.14 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 45.77% [9] - The net profit is expected to rebound to 156 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 135.33% compared to 2024 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.49 yuan in 2024 to 1.16 yuan in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the lithium industry is expected to see significant production increases from key players such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others from 2024 to 2026, driven by various projects coming online [3][4] - Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have the highest production capacity in 2025 and 2026, with major contributions from the Goulamina project and several salt lake projects [3] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth in production rates for companies like Yahua Group and Sichuan Energy Power, indicating a robust expansion in the lithium sector [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Production Forecast - Ganfeng Lithium: Expected production of 8.6 million tons LCE in 2025, growing to 11.4 million tons LCE by 2026, with a CAGR of 49% [4] - Tianqi Lithium: Projected to produce 9.3 million tons LCE in 2025, increasing to 10.4 million tons LCE by 2026, with a CAGR of 8% [4] - Yahua Group: Anticipated to ramp up production significantly from 0.5 million tons LCE in 2024 to 3.3 million tons LCE by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 145% [4] - Other companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Xizang Mining are also expected to see substantial increases in production, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [3][4]

锂业弹性表2025年5月 行业评级：看好 2025年5月21日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 分析师 | 王南清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | 证书编号 | S1230523100001 | 01 锂业弹性表 预计2025年自有矿权益产量最多的为：天齐锂业，赣锋锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的为：赣锋锂业，天齐锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 2024至2026年产量增速较快的为：雅化集团，川能动力，西藏矿业，赣锋锂业，紫金矿业。 增量分析： 2 证券研究报告 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）中矿资源：未来几年主要增量为Bikita项目增产。 4）永兴材料：未来几年增量为化山瓷石矿项目扩产建成增产。 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.5%, the STAR 50 went up by 0.2%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 0.8%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.8%, and the Hang Seng Index surged by 1.49% [2][3] - The best-performing sectors included Beauty Care (+2.5%), Comprehensive (+2.1%), Media (+2.0%), Home Appliances (+1.7%), and Pharmaceutical Biology (+1.6%). The worst-performing sectors were Defense Industry (-0.5%), Coal (-0.3%), Steel (-0.1%), Real Estate (-0.1%), and Building Materials (+0.1%) [2][3] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,169.7 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.33 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [2][3] Key Recommendations Company: Jin Zai Food (003000) - Jin Zai Food is a leading brand in the snack food sector, with a clear growth path for its major products. The company is expected to exceed market revenue expectations in 2025, with a net profit margin slightly above market forecasts [3] - The company is expanding into new high-potential channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets, which are anticipated to drive significant revenue growth. The introduction of new products like short-shelf-life tofu and enriched konjac products is expected to contribute to sustained growth [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2,890.06 million yuan, 3,434.12 million yuan, and 4,104.14 million yuan, with growth rates of 19.82%, 18.83%, and 19.51% respectively. Net profits are projected at 343.32 million yuan, 418.22 million yuan, and 515.16 million yuan, with growth rates of 17.85%, 21.82%, and 23.18% respectively [3] Company: Oulutong (300870) - Oulutong is a leading supplier of high-power server power supplies, expected to benefit from the surge in demand driven by AI and domestic market expansion [4] - The company is positioned to capture increased market share as major internet companies ramp up AI-related capital expenditures, leading to a higher penetration rate of high-power server power supplies [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4,616.23 million yuan, 5,514.58 million yuan, and 6,501.19 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.56%, 19.46%, and 17.89% respectively. Net profits are projected at 354.04 million yuan, 465.43 million yuan, and 570.25 million yuan, with growth rates of 32.11%, 31.46%, and 22.52% respectively [5]

证券研究报告 铜业弹性表 ——2025年5月更新 01 铜业弹性表 | 添加标题 | | --- | 2025年5月20日 行业评级：看好 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 苏湘涵 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 suxianghan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 数据预测偏差风险； 公司项目推进不及预期； 铜价上涨不及预期等。 行业评级与免责声明 资料来源：公司年报，公司公告，公司公众号，浙商证券研究所。注： 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值，存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据；云南铜业统计并表产量口径；金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿（因公告矿山处于技改阶段）。 02 风险提示 3 添加标题 行业的投资评级 4 以报告日后的6个月内，行业指数相对于沪深300指数的涨跌幅为标准，定义如下： 加标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加 点击此处添加标题添加标题点击此处添 我们在此提醒您，不同证券研究机构采用不同的评级术语及评级标准。我们采用的是相对评级体系，表示投资的相对比重。 标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加标 ...