证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 证券Ⅱ 证券Ⅱ 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 07 日 经纪增速最高，投资同比恢复 ——证券行业 2025 年度一季度业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 业绩前瞻 预计 25Q1 上市券商营业收入同比增长 21%、归母净利润同比增长 23%。分业务 条线来看，我们预测 25Q1 经纪、投行、资管、信用、投资业务净收入分别同比 +50%/+12%/+5%/+15%/+18%。 ❑ 驱动因素 （1）经纪业务：预计 25Q1 上市券商经纪业务净收入同比增长 50%。25Q1 市 场日均股基成交额为 16,869 亿元，同比增长 65%；新发基金份额同比小幅增长 3%。"924"以来一系列积极政策对成交额的促进作用立竿见影，但考虑到公募 二阶段降费的影响以及基金代销业务恢复程度不及代理买卖证券业务，我们预计 25Q1 经纪业务净收入同比增长 50%。 （2）投行业务：预计 25Q1 上市券商投行业务净收入同比增长 12%。25Q1 行业 股权承销规模同比增长 28%，其中 IPO 同比下降 30%，承销规模增长主要靠增 发驱动；债权承销规模同比增长 15%。我们预测，在承销规模回暖的情况下， ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 摩托车及其他 涛涛车业(301345) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 06 日 一季度业绩中枢同比预增 60%，强者恒强市占率有望持续提升 ——涛涛车业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件：公司发布 2024 年业绩快报及 2025 年一季度业绩预告 1）2024 年公司实现营收 29.7 亿元，同比增长 39%；实现归母净利润 4.3 亿元， 同比增长 54%。2024 年度，公司加权 ROE 为 14.2%，同比提升 2.6pct。 2）2025Q1，公司预计实现归母净利润 0.75-0.88 亿元，同比预增 47%-73%。 ❑ 公司有望强者恒强，行业竞争格局大幅改善，公司市占率逆势提升 1）2025 年 4 月 3 日，特朗普宣布加征"对等关税"，其中对中国进一步加征的 "对等关税"税率为 34%。 2）2025 年初，美国商务部对进口自中国的低速载人车辆的双反调查初裁税率落 地。其中在华生产的高尔夫球车的反倾销初裁税率为 248%左右，反补贴初裁税 率为 28%左右。 3）目前公司已形成美国+越南+泰国（拟）工厂的海外产能布局。自从去年七月 份美国针对中国电动高尔夫球车提 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 07 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 07 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 精品报告 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟】A 股策略周报：市场调整，继续切换业绩好与低估值——20250405 【浙商固收信用债 杜渐/杨语涵】债券市场专题研究：场外兑付问题深挖与历史全览——20250403 【浙商固收 覃汉/崔正阳】债券市场专题研究：关于对等关税及债市思考的六问六答——20250404 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜】A 股策略周报：关税致使调整继续，再观望、待时机——20250404 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾/陈冀】宏观深度报告：3 月经济：量价或延续背离——20250405 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商固收信用债 杜渐/杨语涵】债券市场专题研究：场外兑付问题深挖与历史全览—— 20250403 1、所在 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration poses both challenges and opportunities for the company, which has strong global capabilities and can better withstand risks during tariff cycles [1][2] - The company has a clear path for managing tariff impacts, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from ODM business, where tariff costs are borne by customers. The company plans to mitigate costs through manufacturing efficiency and product innovation [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable mid-term landscape, as its overseas production capabilities remain advantageous compared to local U.S. production, which faces higher costs [2][3] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. are expected to boost demand in the real estate sector, positively impacting the tools industry [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Company Strategy - The company is positioned to manage the impact of the new tariffs effectively, with a focus on maintaining customer relationships and product pricing strategies [1][2] - The company has initiated price increases to cover the additional tariff costs, demonstrating its ability to pass on costs to consumers [1] Mid-term Industry Dynamics - The comparative advantage of non-U.S. production, particularly in Southeast Asia, remains significant despite the narrowing of tariff differentials [2] - The company is well-placed to capture market share due to its established global supply chain and production capabilities [3] Demand and Economic Outlook - Historical data suggests that the company and the industry have shown resilience during previous tariff impacts, with stable demand expected despite short-term challenges [4] - The expected reduction in interest rates is likely to enhance housing demand, further supporting the tools market [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to see significant growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with estimates of 2.41 billion, 2.85 billion, and 3.49 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 42.5%, 18.4%, and 22.2% [10] - The current market valuation indicates that the company is undervalued compared to its peers, with a projected P/E ratio of 13.6, 11.5, and 9.4 for the years 2024 to 2026 [10]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 医药生物 关税影响下，推荐医药韧性领域 ——医药生物周跟踪 20250406 投资要点 ❑ 周思考：关税影响下，医药观点变化 2025 年以来，各行业表现交织，中美医药关税博弈已从"全行业对抗"转向"精准 技术封锁"，我们推荐进口替代加速和内需确定性两条主线，但同时也提示不可忽 略具备全球竞争力的产品或服务提价预期带来的投资机会。 ➢ 进口替代加速：生命科学服务、高端医疗器械。国内生命科学服务领域的试 剂、仪器等不断技术升级，以达到进口替代和出海作增量市场的目的，贸易摩擦 强化下，我们认为这更有利于这些产品的替代升级，典型公司如华大智造、迈瑞 医疗、联影医疗、纳微科技、百普赛斯、泰坦科技、毕得医药、皓元医药等； 2025Q2 医药行业观点：我们推荐医药行业那些具备"重构者"角色的子领域，这 些领域中期或成为并购整合、新品突破的引领者，逐步成为重构产业生态的主角。 这些领域包含有较大α增量的创新药械、现金流丰富的传统药企以及具备全球竞 争力的出海企业（包括产品及服务）。 投资建议：科伦药业、泽璟制药、康方生物、药明康德、康龙化成、泰坦科技、 毕得医药、国邦医药、天宇股份、上海医药 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度有所回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 4 月 5 日）为 5.4%，较上周 5.7%略有回落，或表 征一季度经济开门红脉冲后，经济增长景气有所回摆。我们认为，随着美国加征关税 的冲击，GDP 周频景气指数或进入下行通道，有待持续跟踪验证。 从生产法来看，工业、服务业景气总体上相较上周总体环比回落。 从需求侧来看，消费表现尚可，固投、出口景气度本周回落。 从价格端来看，本周物 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in its future [1] - The construction machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit [2][3] - SANY's excavator revenue accounts for a significant portion of its income, providing substantial earnings elasticity during industry upturns [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares and issue Hong Kong stocks, indicating a commitment to global expansion [5] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 show strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34% for net profit [6] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6] Company Developments - On April 3, 2025, SANY announced a 2025 employee stock ownership plan with a scale not exceeding 535 million yuan, representing about 1% of the total share capital [1] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 1-2 billion yuan to support the employee stock ownership plan and has announced plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] Industry Analysis - The domestic excavator sales in China for January-February 2025 reached 17,045 units, a year-on-year increase of 51% [2] - The CMI index for March 2025 was 128.56, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 21% month-on-month increase, indicating a market entering a peak season [2] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in March 2025 increased by 7% year-on-year and 94% month-on-month [3] Financial Performance - SANY's excavator revenue accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the first half of 2024, indicating strong earnings potential during industry upturns [4] - The company's net profit margin improved to 8.6% in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points, with operating cash flow reaching 12.4 billion yuan, up 145% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 78.194 billion yuan, 94.397 billion yuan, and 115.568 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 5.8 billion yuan, 8.484 billion yuan, and 11.011 billion yuan [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" on the company is relatively limited due to sufficient inventory in the U.S. and the commencement of local production in late 2023 [2][5] - The company is actively establishing new factories in low-tariff regions and adjusting product prices to mitigate potential tariff risks [3][5] - The revenue share from the U.S. market is expected to gradually decline as the company expands its presence in other regions [4][5] Summary by Sections Short-term Impact - The company has sufficient inventory in the U.S. to meet sales demands for the next 6-9 months and is confident in achieving its annual business goals in the U.S. [2] - Local production facilities in the U.S. are operational, allowing the company to leverage capacity advantages and potentially shift certain high-automation products to local manufacturing [2] Long-term Strategy - The company is enhancing its global supply chain by establishing manufacturing in low-tariff countries such as Mexico, which will help minimize tariff risks [3] - The company plans to adjust product prices in response to market conditions, with strong demand from U.S. customers willing to share the burden of additional tariff costs [3] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 48.33 billion, 60.52 billion, and 76.83 billion respectively, with net profits of 8.05 billion, 11.19 billion, and 13.98 billion [5][11] - The company anticipates a significant growth rate in its energy business and is actively pursuing AI and robotics as a new growth avenue [5]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 06 日 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 核心观点 我们认为海外关税短期冲击市场风险偏好，中期影响基本面预期，结合 4 月年报密集 披露，市场短期或将切回稳健风格，建议投资者关注高等级、基本面稳健转债，同时 受益于消费补贴利好的消费电子、家电、家居等相关转债也可适当关注。 ❑ 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 过去一周（3 月 31 日至 4 月 3 日，下同）转债指数涨跌参半，其中可转债公 用、医疗、日常消费行业指数，双低转债指数领涨，市场整体呈现出稳健风格。 估值方面，债性、平衡性的四周移动平均估值均出现压缩，股性转债的估值上 升。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅下降到 120.25 元，处在 2017 年以来的 79.38%水平。整体来看，当前转债市场相对此前的高涨状态逐渐降温。 我们认为当前可转债市场跟随权益出现滞涨状态，一方面在于新质生产力相关板 块短期涨幅过高，市场在年报密集披露前后定价核心重回基本面，而该部分相关 标的普遍短期业绩预期无法落地，市场或有市场风格切换的可能性；另一方面， 基于 2024 年财报 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The ongoing trade war has led to increased tariffs, with the U.S. imposing a total of 20% tariffs on Chinese goods as of February and March 2025, followed by an additional 34% tariff announced in April 2025 [1][2] - In response, China has implemented a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and has taken measures against 16 U.S. entities, indicating an escalation in the trade conflict [2] - The heightened tensions between the U.S. and China have underscored the importance of self-reliance in technology and the need for China to enhance its technological capabilities [3] - The software sector is expected to focus on domestic demand, with significant potential for market growth and technological substitution [3] - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for government and party-related technology initiatives, with a focus on PC-based technology updates and strong performance from key companies in Q1 and throughout the year [3] - Domestic AI models, such as those from Alibaba and DeepSeek, are now among the global leaders, driving the development of AI applications tailored to local needs [4] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including those with high market share in foundational software, AI applications, and hardware sectors [5] Summary by Sections - **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. has increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a total of 20% and then 34% tariffs, prompting China to retaliate with similar measures [1][2] - **Technological Self-Reliance**: The report emphasizes the need for China to focus on self-reliance in technology amidst rising tensions, particularly in the software sector [3] - **AI Development**: Chinese AI models are gaining global recognition, with a focus on applications that meet domestic enterprise needs [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies recommended for investment include Dameng Data, China Software, and others in the AI and hardware sectors [5]