Group 1: PMI and Manufacturing Insights - The manufacturing PMI for February 2025 recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a recovery influenced by the post-Spring Festival period[1] - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 52.5%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs decreased to 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively[1] - The production index for large enterprises increased nearly 5 percentage points to 56.2%, serving as a core support for the manufacturing sector's recovery in February[1] Group 2: Demand and Economic Outlook - The new orders index for manufacturing improved to 51.1%, up 1.9 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion after briefly falling below 50%[9] - The overall economic growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with the first quarter GDP growth potentially reaching 5.1%[16] - The composite PMI output index for February was 51.1%, reflecting an overall recovery in economic sentiment[16] Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector was above 54%, showing a nearly 2 percentage point increase, while high-tech manufacturing reached 53%, up 3 percentage points[3] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased to 782,500 tons in February, significantly higher than the previous month's 639,700 tons[7] - The EPMI for strategic emerging industries rose to 49%, a 3.4 percentage point increase, ending a four-month decline[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, is expected to benefit from policy catalysts and market dynamics as the National People's Congress convenes in March 2025. The report suggests actively allocating investments in this sector, especially in the second quarter when the sector enters a low base period [1][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and inventory management in the liquor sector, recommending key players such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai for high-end liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu and Yanghe Brewery for mid-range and regional brands [20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector performed well during the Spring Festival, with regional leaders like Su and Hui wines showing strong results. The report suggests that positioning is more critical than timing, recommending active allocation at current levels [1][20]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: "sustained momentum" and "low base recovery," highlighting high-end liquor recommendations such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, and mid-range options like Gujing Gongjiu and Yanghe Brewery [20]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report outlines two main investment themes for the consumer goods sector in 2025: the "prosperity theme" and the "recovery theme." It emphasizes the importance of new retail channels and the expected policy stimulus for the restaurant supply chain [26]. - Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili Group, focusing on high-prosperity segments and recovery opportunities [26]. Market Performance - From February 21 to February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%, while the liquor sector rose by 1.58%, with notable gains from brands like Jiuziyuan and Zhenjiu Lidong [3][30]. - The consumer goods sector saw significant rebounds in leisure foods and meat products, with leading stocks like Zhuangyuan Ranch and Hainan Yedao showing substantial increases [21][30]. Price Trends - The report tracks key liquor prices, noting that Kweichow Moutai's price remains stable at approximately 2,215 RMB per bottle, while Wuliangye maintains a price of around 950 RMB [19][50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The ready-to-drink beverage industry is a high-quality consumer segment with a market size exceeding 510 billion yuan and a double-digit growth rate. The industry has a low penetration rate and high-quality offerings, indicating significant growth potential, especially in lower-tier cities [3][4] - Major players like Mixue Ice City and Luckin Coffee have established strong market positions and are expected to continue expanding through both domestic and international strategies. Other brands like Gu Ming and Lucky Coffee are also solidifying their positions in the first tier of the industry [3] - The competition landscape is evolving, with a noticeable increase in store closures in the ready-to-drink tea segment, while the coffee segment remains competitive with a clear concentration of leading brands [4] Industry Scale - The ready-to-drink beverage industry reached a scale of over 510 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% from 2018 to 2023. The market for ready-to-drink tea and coffee is approximately 250 billion yuan and 170 billion yuan, respectively [4][18] - The ready-to-drink tea segment is the largest, accounting for about 50% of the total market, while the ready-to-drink coffee segment is the fastest-growing, with a CAGR of nearly 36% from 2018 to 2023 [4][21][25] Brand Competition Landscape - The competition in the ready-to-drink tea segment is easing, with a significant increase in store closures over the past three years. In contrast, the coffee segment remains highly competitive, with a clear trend of brand concentration [4][41] - The top five brands in the ready-to-drink tea segment hold a market share of approximately 16.8%, while the top ten brands account for about 23.2%. In the coffee segment, the top five brands have a market share of around 22.2% [4][51][53] Future Outlook - There is substantial growth potential in the ready-to-drink beverage market, with per capita consumption in China still having over eight times the room for growth compared to developed markets. The industry is expected to maintain a double-digit growth rate, with the market size projected to exceed 1.1 trillion yuan by 2028 [4][26][30] - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage segment is anticipated to be the primary driver of growth, with a projected CAGR of 22% from 2023 to 2028 [30][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a revenue increase of 10% and a net profit increase of 25% for 2024. Excluding convertible bond interest expenses, the net profit is approximately 234 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 43% [2][4] - The company has deepened strategic cooperation with five major cross-border e-commerce platforms, enhancing service capabilities through AI [3][4] - The business structure has been optimized, with a gross margin increase of 3 percentage points, and the logistics business is experiencing accelerated growth [4][8] Financial Overview - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 205 million yuan. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.449 billion yuan, 1.592 billion yuan, and 1.778 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 241 million yuan, 290 million yuan, and 341 million yuan [10][12] - The company is expected to maintain a growth rate of 8% to 12% in revenue and 18% to 20% in net profit over the next three years [4][10] Business Structure - The comprehensive logistics segment generated 780 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 58% of total revenue, while the supply chain distribution segment generated 570 million yuan, accounting for 42% [8] - The company has established a three-tier warehousing system for Temu, providing a one-stop solution for cross-border logistics, which has reduced inventory redundancy by 20% [8][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is planning to build dedicated Amazon supply chain centers in southern China and Hainan, aiming to improve inventory turnover efficiency by 25% [8][9] - A pilot program for TikTok Shop is being tested in Hainan, aiming to compress delivery times to five days for Southeast Asian merchants [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is entering a period of rapid expansion, with a projected demand of approximately 2.04 million units and a market space of about 305 billion yuan by 2030 in the manufacturing and housekeeping sectors of China and the US [1] - The demand for 3D visual sensors for humanoid robots is expected to grow significantly, from 14 million yuan in 2025 to 915 million yuan in 2030, with a CAGR of 132% [1] - The company is positioned in the top tier globally for 3D visual perception technology, with a comprehensive technology development capability across six major 3D visual sensing technologies [2] - The company has a strong product presence across various industries, serving over 1,000 clients including major players like Ant Group and China Mobile [2] - Ant Group, a major shareholder and client, has announced its entry into the humanoid robot field, indicating potential for deepened collaboration in the robot vision sensor domain [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 560 million, 810 million, and 1.22 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 56%, 44%, and 51% respectively [4] - The company is expected to reduce its net loss from 60 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 140 million yuan in 2026, with a significant increase in net profit growth of 787% in 2026 [4] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is projected to decrease from 47 in 2024 to 22 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing three-year delay of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the focus on post-war benefit distribution, particularly the attitudes of Europe and the United States towards compensation claims [3][4] - The U.S. has proposed a $500 billion mineral cooperation agreement with Ukraine, although the exact amount of rare earth resources in Ukraine is uncertain. However, Ukraine's rich mineral resources may serve as leverage for further U.S. aid [3][16] - The report suggests that the recent U.S.-Ukraine mineral cooperation agreement may have a limited marginal impact on the supply-demand dynamics of various metals, and the distribution of Ukraine's mineral resources will significantly affect the reshaping of the European supply chain if the conflict gradually resolves [3] Summary by Sections Section: U.S. Aid to Ukraine - Since the outbreak of the conflict, the U.S. has provided a total of $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, with a commitment of $128 billion in total aid, including $53.76 billion in economic aid, $3.7 billion in humanitarian aid, and $70.56 billion in military aid [10][9] - The actual delivered aid amounts to $122.8 billion, comprising $50.1 billion in economic aid, $3.68 billion in humanitarian aid, and $69 billion in military aid [10] Section: Ukraine's Mineral Resources - Ukraine possesses significant mineral resources, including iron ore (650 million tons), titanium ore (590 million tons), and natural graphite (970 million tons), which account for 3.25%, 1.16%, and 3.34% of global reserves, respectively [13][15] - The main mineral-rich areas in Ukraine include the Kryvyi Rih-Zaporizhia iron ore belt and the Donbas coal mining area, with central and eastern Ukraine having a relative advantage in mineral resources [15] Section: Rare Earth Resources - The proposed $500 billion rare earth resource cooperation agreement with the U.S. is met with skepticism, as Ukraine is not a major global producer of rare earth elements [16][17] - The Ukrainian government has approved a framework for joint development of mineral resources with the U.S., which includes establishing a reconstruction investment fund [16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The recruitment industry is experiencing a seasonal impact due to the Lunar New Year, with job position growth rates affected. The traditional off-peak season in November-December saw a narrowing decline, and the subsequent employment market's recovery remains to be observed [1][2] - On a macro level, the urban survey unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.2% in January 2025, up by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The labor survey unemployment rates for different age groups (16-24 years, 25-29 years, and 30-59 years) were 16.1%, 6.9%, and 4.0%, respectively, with slight increases [1][2] - The micro-level data indicates a growth in the number of newly recruited companies, reflecting confidence in the market. In January 2025, the number of new recruitment companies increased by 19% year-on-year, while the number of new job postings decreased by 20%, indicating a divergence that may signal a recovery in confidence among small and medium enterprises [2] Summary by Sections Recruitment Data - In January 2025, 20 out of 81 sub-industries saw an increase in job positions month-on-month, compared to 44 in December. The consumer services sector, particularly home services and group buying/takeout, showed significant year-on-year growth, while industries like wedding photography and coal experienced declines [3][12] - The BOSS Zhipin platform reported a strong growth in monthly active users (MAU), reaching approximately 58 million in Q3 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 25%, and 30% for Q1, Q2, and Q3, respectively [4][17] Industry Analysis - The recruitment industry is likely to continue bottoming out, with a clear turning point still to be observed. The seasonal impact of the Lunar New Year traditionally leads to a slowdown in recruitment activities, and the overall job market performance in January was relatively stable despite the seasonal effects [1][3] - The data from Datayes indicates that the number of new recruitment companies increased by 19% year-on-year in January, while the number of new job postings decreased by 20%, suggesting a potential recovery in confidence among employers [2][14]

分析师：李超 / 林成炜 >>《美国优先投资政策》使用多种现存法律和行政手段限制美国对华投资 2025年2月21日，特朗普颁布备忘录《美国优先投资政策》，重点限制中美双边投 资。 研究助理：汤子玉 来源：浙商证券宏观研究团队 具体参见2025年2月27日报告《如何理解美国优先投资？—— 特朗普新政系列十》，如 需报告全文或数据底稿，请联系团队成员或对口销售。 全文约4200字，阅读大约需要10分钟 核 心 观 点 《美国优先投资政策》重点限制美国对华投资，一是强化现存法律和行政手段限制美 国对华投资；二是进一步扩大对华投资限制，包括重点科技行业和上市企业。《美国 优先投资政策》考虑在半导体、人工智能、量子计算、生物技术、高超音速、航空航 天、先进制造、定向能（例如激光武器）以及中国国家军民融合战略涉及的其他领域 加大投资限制，此外，新政策明确提到考虑纳入公开交易证券，可能通过扩充"中国 军工复合企业清单（NS-CMIC LIST）"等手段迫使重点行业中概股退市；三是可 能停止《中美所得税公约》，对中国使用美国专利，中国赴美投资有更不利的影响。 同时《美国优先投资政策》也强调强化美国外国投资委员会功能，限制中国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - In 2024, Hong Kong Exchanges achieved a revenue of HK$22.374 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HK$13.050 billion, up 10% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a significant net profit increase of 46% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher trading volumes in the spot and derivatives markets as well as increased investment income [1][4] - The report highlights a notable improvement in trading volumes, particularly in the spot market, where the average daily trading volume increased by 26% year-on-year. The stock connect programs also saw significant growth, with daily trading volumes increasing by 55% and 39% for Hong Kong and mainland China respectively [2] - The report projects a net profit growth of 10% for 2024, benefiting from increased trading volumes and investment income, with expected net profit growth rates of 20%, 10%, and 10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][11] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by business lines showed a year-on-year growth of 15% for the spot market, a decline of 5% for derivatives, a growth of 27% for commodities, 3% for data and connectivity, and 15% for company projects [1] - Revenue from trading and trading system usage fees grew by 18%, while listing fees decreased by 3%. Settlement and clearing fees increased by 21% [1] Trading Activity - The report notes that the trading activity in the derivatives market improved, with a slight revenue increase of 2% in 2024. The trading income from structured products also saw a 3% increase, a significant recovery compared to a 10% decline in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The commodities market remained active, with trading fees from LME and LME Clear increasing by 33% and 30% respectively, attributed to an 18% rise in average daily trading volumes [2] Fundraising and Listings - In 2024, the number of new listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 71, a decrease of 2 from 2023, but the total fundraising amount increased by 90%, primarily due to the listing of Midea Group, which was the largest IPO in Hong Kong since February 2021 [3] - The report also mentions that the number of new derivative warrants and structured products listed increased by 43% in the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates an expected EPS of HK$12.40, HK$13.62, and HK$14.94, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29, 27, and 24 times respectively. The target price for 2025 is set at HK$471.01, based on a 38 times P/E ratio [4][11]

- The report emphasizes that index investment should focus on allocation rather than rotation, and excess returns should come from alpha rather than style or industry[1][2] - The necessity and effectiveness of index risk management are highlighted, suggesting neutralizing signals to remove existing risk factors and constraining specific dimensions' deviation from the benchmark[3] - An index configuration portfolio targeting information ratio (IR) achieved an annualized excess return of 11.25%, an IR of 2.28, a Calmar ratio of 4.10, and a monthly win rate of 73% from 2015 to 2024[4][10] - The report discusses the construction of an index risk control model, which includes determining the list of indices to be included and the risk factors to be used[53] - The index risk control model's effectiveness is significantly higher than that of individual stock models, with industry contributions greatly exceeding style contributions[55][58] - The report suggests that the index risk control model should be used to constrain active risk while pursuing alpha returns, with the goal of maximizing the information ratio[60] - The report outlines the process of constructing an index configuration portfolio, including signal selection, synthesis, and combination optimization[71] - The optimized portfolio reduced the maximum drawdown from 8.30% to 4.55% and improved the IR and Calmar ratio, with a tracking error of 4.93%[72][73]