期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏多氛围减弱，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏多氛围减弱，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 合成胶（BR） 日内观点：偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末现货价格持稳，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂生产平稳，螺 纹产量环比微增，供应持续回升，但春节临近短流程钢厂将减产，增量空间有限。与此同时，螺纹 钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标持续下行，继续位于近年来农历同期低位，而下游行业也未好转， 弱势需求格局未变，仍易拖累钢价。总之，螺纹钢供应高位平稳运行，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延 续弱势格局，淡季钢价继续承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注 库存变化情况。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面偏弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘 ...

宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-02 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险降温，原油弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于美伊释放和谈信号，地缘风险降温，原油溢价回吐并拖累国内能化板块偏多氛 围减弱，上周五夜盘国内外原油期货价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation, and an intraday view of weakness [1][5] - Due to the cooling of geopolitical risks, the methanol futures are expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday, but the recent overseas supply "hard contraction" has provided strong support for the methanol price [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Time - period and Viewpoint Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, and intraday represents the current trading day [1] - For intraday views, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. Short - term and medium - term views do not make such distinctions [3][4] 3.2 Price - driving Logic of Methanol - The key factor supporting the recent upward movement of methanol prices is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, is experiencing serious supply disruptions [5] - The reduction of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to the recovery of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5] - Due to the cooling of geopolitical risks and a weaker oil price, the bullish sentiment in the domestic energy and chemical sector has diminished, causing the domestic methanol futures to trade weakly and close slightly lower on the night session of last Friday. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周五夜盘黄金白银大跌，白银触及跌停板，这是短期消息 ...

期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 多空博弈，焦煤区间运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 基本面变化不大，焦炭维持低位 运行 | 备注： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，1 月 30 日当周，全国 523 家 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 电煤需求旺盛，港口煤价小幅反 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 弹 | 备注： 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 核心逻辑：进入迎峰度冬关键时期，居民生活用电明显改善，且距离春节尚有两周时间，工业用 电尚未回落，短期内电厂煤炭日耗进入全年顶峰时段，下游电厂和其他终端企业补库需求仍存， 支撑煤价企稳小幅反弹。不过，在 1 月旺季的背景下，港口 5500K 煤价全月仅小幅上涨 11 元/吨， 同样反映出了当前煤炭基本面的乏力，以及市场对后续煤炭供需格局的偏空预期。整体来看，短 期需求旺盛、北港库存持续去化，以及下游终端企业 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, the upward and downward drivers of treasury bond futures are both weak, mainly in a range of shock consolidation. On one hand, the macro - economic data in December weakened, showing insufficient effective domestic demand, so the future monetary and credit environment is relatively loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. On the other hand, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, indicating that structural monetary policy is the central bank's first choice, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are in shock consolidation. The upward and downward drivers are weak. The weak December macro - economic data provides support due to loose future monetary and credit environment, while the January structural interest rate cut reduces the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut and the upward momentum [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：巴西丰收前景缓解阿根廷干旱担忧，中国采购未来数月或转向巴西采购。美豆出口销售环比骤 降。国内春节备货尾声，需求支撑有限。短期豆类市场情绪波动影响加大，需关注 2 月底巴西大范围收获 对美豆和国内豆粕的影响，短期豆类期价波动加剧，关注市场资金变化对价格的影响。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：强势 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：马棕产业链供需边际改善并未改变，机构预估马棕库存从 305 万吨峰值 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillatory trend, with the supply - demand pattern weakening and the ore price remaining volatile [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillatory", and the intraday trend is "oscillatory and weak". The overall view is that it will oscillate, with the core logic being the weakening supply - demand pattern and the continuation of the oscillatory trend of the ore price [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed little. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore is at a low level. The industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and ore demand remains weak. Although domestic port arrivals have continued to decline, miner shipments are stabilizing, and the subsequent arrival reduction is limited according to the shipping schedule. Domestic ore supply is stable, and with high inventory, supply pressure still exists. The positive factor is pre - holiday replenishment. Overall, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill replenishment [3]