品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-13 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 风险偏好降温，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The main reason for the weakening of the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is that as the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds matures and falls to around 1.8%, and the liquidity tightens approaching the Spring Festival, the willingness of funds to take profits increases. Although the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, there are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is the low possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens due to the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling to around 1.8% and approaching Spring Festival liquidity tightness. There are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations despite the low short - term possibility. Overall, Treasury bond futures will be in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 去美元化长期趋势不变，短期全 球流动性下降，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 节前资金了结意愿强，驱动不强 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜金价跳水，纽约金一度下挫近 200 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price stabilized and slightly increased this week. As of February 5th, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The current situation is in the critical period of peak - winter demand. High daily coal consumption of power plants across the country drives inventory depletion in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. However, the thermal coal production is running smoothly, and the market still has a bearish long - term outlook, which suppresses coal prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Market Situation - The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton as of February 5th, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Driving Factors - Positive factor: High daily coal consumption of power plants across the country during the peak - winter demand period drives inventory depletion in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain [4]. - Negative factor: Stable thermal coal production and the market's bearish long - term outlook on the fundamentals suppress coal prices [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The short - term and medium - term view of thermal coal is "oscillation" [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 假期前股市风险偏好谨慎乐观 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and daily views on soybean meal, palm oil, and other agricultural product futures, with most of the views being "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term**: The short - term view is "oscillating", and the core logic is that excessive rainfall in the mid - west of Brazil delays soybean harvesting and listing, boosting US soybean prices. In China, the tightening of spot delivery contracts before the festival provides price support, but high domestic inventories and sufficient supply expectations in the far - month remain, with potential for post - festival soybean auctions, so short - term prices will oscillate. Key factors to watch include the US Agricultural Outlook Forum's area forecast in mid - to late February, and South American weather and logistics [5]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is "oscillating", and the influencing factors include import soybean cost, arrival rhythm, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [5]. - **Daily**: The daily view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term**: The short - term view is "oscillating weakly". The core logic is that the pre - festival oil market is in a weak oscillation pattern dominated by funds. Weak February export data of Malaysian palm oil and a negative sentiment at industry conferences suppress the price. The domestic oil futures price is dominated by import costs, and attention should be paid to US soybean oil policies and post - festival inventory pressure [6]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is "oscillating", and influencing factors include Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [5]. - **Daily**: The daily view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. Other Information - The calculation of the price change range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night - session trading, and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night - session trading, with the day - session closing price as the end - point price [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered "weak", a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillating weakly", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillating strongly", and an increase of more than 1% is "strong". The concepts of "oscillating strongly/weakly" are only for daily views, without a distinction between short - term and medium - term [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on rebar 2605 is bias towards a weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also bias towards a weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar both weakened. Short - process steel mills significantly reduced production, and rebar output decreased significantly, slightly lower than the same period last lunar year. However, inventory was relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side was limited. The demand for rebar also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and remaining at the lowest level in recent lunar years. Weak demand continued to drag down steel prices. The relative positives are the expected post - festival policy enhancement and cost support. The steel price is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term is "oscillation, weak", the medium - term is "oscillation", and the intraday is "oscillation, weak". The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar both weakened. Short - process steel mills cut production, output decreased, inventory was relatively high, and demand was weak. The steel price was under pressure, but there were positive factors such as policy expectations and cost support. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 基本面弱稳运行，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 锰硅 震荡寻底 （2026 年 2 月 12 日） 2026 年以来，锰硅期货价格从高位回落，主力合约从最高的 6074 元/吨降至当前的 5800 元/吨 附近，已回吐自去年 12 月以来的大部分涨幅。锰硅现货价格同步走弱，主流地区报价较前期的高位 累计下降 60~100 元。目前，市场乐观情绪消退，在产业逻辑主导下锰硅期货价格或承压下行。 库存持续累积 在产业矛盾未见缓解的情况下，锰硅厂内库存偏高。截至上周，钢联统计的锰硅生产企业厂内 库存总量为 37.78 万吨，目前已连续三周回升。当前锰硅厂内库存继续位于历史高位，且显著高于 去年同期，同比增加 24.93 万吨，增幅高达 194%。 值得注意的是，当前库存主要集中在主产区。其中，宁夏库存最高，最新值为 30.10 万吨，再 创历史新高，且明显高于往年同期水平，去库压力大；内蒙古库存同样居高不下，同比增加 1.18 万 吨；其他地区库存水平与去年同期基本持平。 整体来看，锰硅生产企业厂内库存高企，且库存多数集中在主产区，去库压力偏大。此外，春 节假期临近，钢厂小幅补库，其厂内库存可用天数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the USDA's February report, the market has entered a new stage of actively tracking and gaming future variables such as trade flows, industrial policies, and planting intentions. The price of US soybeans will fluctuate between the weak reality of new supply surplus and potential demand expectations until a new and solid fundamental main line is confirmed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. US Soybean Data Remains Unchanged - In the February supply - demand report, the USDA made no adjustments to all key estimates of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season. The production, yield, sown and harvested areas, and ending stocks (350 million bushels) of US soybeans remained the same as in the January estimate, with ending stocks at a six - year high. The export estimate was still 1.575 billion bushels, in line with the USDA's cautious style and market expectations [8]. - Although the US soybean crushing demand is strong and the current crushing progress is slightly higher than the annual target, the USDA's estimate remains unchanged to reserve adjustment space for upcoming major policies. The market is highly concerned about the renewable fuel obligation and 45Z tax incentive policies to be announced by the US EPA in March, which may boost soybean - based biodiesel demand and US soybean crushing volume [8]. - The high ending stocks of US soybeans suppress the rebound of futures prices. There are still differences in the market's view of US soybean stocks. Some institutions believe that if US soybean exports increase slightly in the future, the stocks may fall to 275 million - 320 million bushels. The future adjustment of US soybean stocks depends on the changes in exports and crushing levels [9]. 3.2. Record - High Production of South American Soybeans Confirmed - In the February report, the USDA raised the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 2 million tons to a record 180 million tons, and the global soybean ending stocks by 1.1 million tons to 125.51 million tons, indicating a high - supply era dominated by South America [10]. - The high - supply situation in South America has led to a weakening of the basis for farmers' sales. Brazilian farmers are in a dilemma of increasing production but not necessarily increasing income. Chinese buyers, as the world's largest importers, prefer Brazilian new soybeans with better cost - performance, squeezing the traditional sales window of US soybeans [10][11]. - The increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA report coincides with the quality problem of soaring soybean mold rate due to continuous heavy rain in the main producing areas, leading to complex market games [11]. 3.3. Shift in Market Trading Drivers - The USDA's decision to keep all core data at January levels in the February report sets a supply - demand balance benchmark for the market. Market pricing logic has shifted from static data to continuous verification and intense gaming of a series of dynamic and undetermined external key variables [12]. - Market trading is divided into three progressive time dimensions and verification nodes. In the short - term, the core of the market depends on whether China's increased purchases of US soybeans can translate into continuous trade flows. In the medium - term, the driving force will shift to the renewable fuel obligation and 45Z tax incentive policies of the US EPA, and the USDA's planting intention report at the end of March. The market generally expects the US soybean planting area to expand significantly in 2026/2027, putting potential pressure on far - month contracts [13]. - After the release of the USDA report, the market is in a tug - of - war between weak reality and strong expectations. The price trend of US soybeans will depend on which key narrative line can make a breakthrough and be confirmed by official data, and the high production of Brazilian soybeans will suppress global soybean prices throughout the game [14]. 3.4. Uncertainties in US Soybean Exports - The USDA maintained the 2025/2026 US soybean export estimate at 1.575 billion bushels in the February report, which has remained unchanged for two consecutive months. Driven by optimistic export expectations to China, the US soybean futures price was strong recently, but the actual export sales progress is lagging [15]. - As of January 29, 2026, the total sales of US soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were only 9.887 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%. The shipping progress was also slow, with the loaded volume to China accounting for only 51.3% of the USDA's annual export forecast, far lower than the five - year average of 66.9% [16]. - The main challenge for US soybean exports is the direct competition from South America. The price of US soybeans is significantly higher than that of Brazilian soybeans. However, if the quality problems of Brazilian soybeans due to heavy rain seriously affect its export volume, it may prompt buyers to turn to US soybeans. Overall, it is difficult for US soybean exports in the 2025/2026 season to achieve a significant increase beyond expectations [17].