投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面未好转，矿价偏弱运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 进 取 3.震荡偏强/偏 ...

期货研究报告 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 向上驱动不足，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 多空焦灼，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：节后首日，焦煤主力合约维持弱势格局，日内增仓下行 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 产业矛盾累积，钢价弱势寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期螺纹钢供需格局走弱，建筑钢厂生产平稳，螺纹钢供应低位回升，且库存水平偏高，供应 压力有所增加。与此同时，假期因素扰动下螺纹需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标继续位于近年来同期 低位，且恢复存在时滞，弱势格局短期将延续，易拖累钢价，相对利好的则是政策预期或增强。目 前来看，供稳需弱局面下螺纹钢产业矛盾累积， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：市场对中美农产品贸易前景的担忧情绪升温。基本面呈多空交织格局，南美巴西大豆收割率五 年同期最低，收获延迟为美豆期价提供短期支撑，但丰产预期未改。国内现货市场因油厂开机恢复中、货 权集中，整体表现抗跌，但节前高库存压力持续。豆粕价格陷入进口成本波动加剧与国内供需宽松的博弈 中，短期走势震荡偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.88%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 供稳需弱局面下假期螺纹钢产业矛盾持续累积，库存大幅增加，钢价继 续承压运行，相对利好的是政策预期与成本支撑，预计走势延续弱势寻 底态势，重点关注累库情况以及节后短流程钢厂复产节奏。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.87%日跌幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应压力未退，而需求延续季节性走弱，基本面延续弱势运 行，价格 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival, the overseas precious metals market showed an upward trend, with New York gold rising from around $5,000 to over $5,200. The core driving factors are geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which increased market risk aversion, and concerns about the US new round of tariff policies, which strengthened gold's anti - inflation and hedging properties. In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain strong, and relevant news should be continuously monitored. In the long term, frequent global geopolitical events, de - dollarization, and the trend of anti - globalization will support gold prices [5][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9]. 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | February 23 | February 13 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $5,247.90 | $5,063.80 | 3.64% | | COMEX Silver | $88.00 | $77.27 | 13.89% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | N/A | $1,110.10 | N/A | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | N/A | $19,782.00 | N/A | | US Dollar Index | 97.73 | 96.86 | 0.90% | | USD/CNH | 6.89 | 6.90 | - 0.20% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.77 | 1.77 | 0.00 | | S&P 500 | 6,837.75 | 6,836.17 | 0.02% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $66.29 | $62.81 | 5.54% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 59.64 | 65.53 | - 9.00% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | N/A | 56.12 | N/A | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,086.47 | 1,077.03 | 9.44 | | iShare Gold ETF | 499.32 | 500.19 | - 0.87 | [10] 2. Safe - Haven Demand Drives Up Gold Prices - During the Spring Festival, safe - haven demand dominated the gold price. The US dollar index was strong, while the US Treasury yield was weak. Affected by tariff disturbances and the US - Iran situation, the US stock market performed weakly, but there was no obvious panic from the volatility index [12][14]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - On February 23, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,585.79 tons, an increase of 8.57 tons compared to before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, silver rose by more than 10%, and the gold - silver ratio declined significantly [16][19]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the short - term gold price will remain strong due to geopolitical and tariff factors, and long - term factors will support gold prices [22].

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色节后偏强运行 核心观点 沪铜 春节后第一个交易日，铜价呈现冲高回落态势，主力期价一度站 上 10.2 万关口，沪铜持仓量日内持续上升。宏观层面，海外美伊局 势紧张，美国关税扰动，市场风险偏好较低；国内节后流动性恢复 明显，给予铜价支撑。产业层面，节后下游逐步开工，产业支撑或 持续上升。持续关注国内库存以及下游补库需求。 沪铝 春节后第一个交易日，铝价高开后震荡运行，主力期价在 2.36 万 上方震荡运行，沪铝持仓量持续上 ...

焦煤：节后首日，焦煤主力合约维持弱势格局，日内增仓下行，可见短期 市场氛围依然偏空。从供需来看，春节期间停产休假煤矿将逐渐复产，蒙 煤进口量维持高位，同时地产、基建终端需求持续低迷，当下焦煤基本面 预期仍难言乐观，拖累煤价低位运行。后续，全国两会即将召开，或给市 场带来一定的宏观预期支撑，在多空博弈的格局下，焦煤期货或维持低位 震荡运行；若近期无实质性政策利好，焦煤价格仍将面临一定压力。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空焦灼，煤焦低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, strong operation, and a significant rise. The closing price increased by 3.90% to 17,030 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 200 yuan/ton. The rubber market has re - entered a bullish trend, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, volatile and upward - biased, and a significant rise. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,297 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,222 yuan/ton, and the closing price increased by 3.02% to 2,285 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have enhanced the methanol premium, driving the methanol price to stabilize and strengthen. It is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, gapping up, and strong operation. The futures price reached a maximum of 495.0 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 484.3 yuan/barrel, and the closing price increased by 6.18% to 493.3 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated again, the crude oil premium has significantly increased. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a high - level and upward - biased posture in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. Bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, most tire enterprises shut down, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. Production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, and both decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% month - on - month respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the LPI was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points but still in the expansion range. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in January, a significant year - on - year increase of about 39%, and it is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.68%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.50%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.11%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,300 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week and 1.62% month - on - month. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 43,600 tons. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,300 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 969,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a slight week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change in Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,950 yuan/ton | +700 yuan/ton | 17,030 yuan/ton | +715 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | +98 yuan/ton | 2,285 yuan/ton | +97 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.1 yuan/barrel | +23.4 yuan/barrel | 493.3 yuan/barrel | +32.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.2 yuan/barrel | - 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as the rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][23]. - **Methanol**: The report contains charts of the methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The report has charts of the crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][48][50].

宝城期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 164120 元/吨，较前日 上涨 11480 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152080 元/吨，较前日上涨 5.77%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现震荡走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-8920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 4260 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量 ...