Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly for shock consolidation, with short - term upward driving force weakened, while the medium - and long - term is supported by policy - side positive expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the valuation end has risen rapidly, the stock index is in shock consolidation, and demand is warming up [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index fluctuated and declined, showing a trend of bottom - hunting and rebound throughout the day. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 286.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.7 billion yuan from the previous day. Affected by the fluctuation of precious metals, market sentiment weakened rapidly, and commodities with large previous increases generally corrected, and the stock index was also affected. Due to the clear expectation of the regulatory authorities to control risks and the fact that the increase of this round of stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation end, the short - term upward driving force of the stock index has weakened. The weakening of market sentiment caused by the precious metals market has led to an increase in the willingness of the capital side to take profits. In the medium and long term, the positive expectations on the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market constitute the main supporting force for the upward movement of the stock index [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the warm sentiment in the commodity market, steel prices once fluctuated higher. However, industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, limiting the upward driving force. In January, steel prices continued to fluctuate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [4][11][13]. - Steel inventories have started to accumulate, with differences among varieties. Construction steel inventories have increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in supply and the seasonal decline in demand, and the expectation of inventory increase during the holiday is strong. Plate inventories have slightly decreased but are still at the highest level in the same lunar period in recent years, and the de - stocking pressure remains [4][26][27]. - In the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and steel supply has continued to shrink, with differences among varieties. At the beginning of the new year, the factors suppressing production have subsided, and steel mills have continued the resumption of production. However, due to the limited improvement in profitability, the motivation for a significant increase in production is not strong, and production is expected to stabilize, with steel supply remaining stable [4][47][54]. - Steel demand has weakened, with obvious differences among varieties. Construction steel shows obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remains stable at a high level and shows good resilience. Looking forward, the downstream industries of building materials have not improved, the real - estate fundamentals continue to be sluggish, and infrastructure investment is difficult to increase in the short term due to holiday factors. The relative positive factor is the expectation of policy benefits. At the same time, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has weakened, and external demand is average under the new export policy, so there are concerns about plate demand [4][68][69]. - In conclusion, the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, which may suppress steel price trends. However, as important meetings approach, domestic policy expectations are increasing, and combined with the upward logic of resource products, the macro - positive expectations support steel prices. The operating logic of the steel market will switch between weak reality and strong expectations, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the increase in off - season inventories and changes in the macro - narrative logic [5][13][119]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - January Steel Prices Fluctuated at a Low Level - In January, the steel market entered the traditional off - season. Steel demand weakened seasonally, while supply remained stable. Industrial contradictions accumulated, and steel prices were under pressure. However, since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market and driving up the low - valued black varieties. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range [11]. - As of January 30, the futures prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3128 yuan/ton and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, up 6 yuan and 18 yuan from the end - of - last - month values. The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) in Shanghai were 3250 yuan/ton and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, down 50 yuan and 0 yuan from the end - of - last - month values [11]. - In January, the relevant price differences in the steel market operation were different from previous years. The basis weakened, the futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil still showed a contango pattern but with a lower premium than in previous years. The strength of varieties changed, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was weak and stable, the difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled plates continued to shrink, and the north - south spread of building materials showed a downward trend [12]. 3.2 Off - Season Steel Inventories Accumulated as Expected - As of the week of January 30, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 463,600 tons and an increase of 3.76%. The inventory level was slightly higher than that of the same lunar period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4616 million tons and an increase of 12.91% [20]. - Construction steel inventories continued to accumulate, while plate inventories slightly decreased, but both were higher than those of the same lunar period last year. As of the week of January 30, the inventory of construction steel was 5.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 647,600 tons and an increase of 12.82%. The total plate inventory was 7.0856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 184,000 tons and a decrease of 2.53% [26]. - In terms of inventory links, both steel social inventory and factory inventory increased. As of the week of January 30, the steel social inventory was 8.9073 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 399,500 tons and an increase of 4.70%. The factory inventory was 3.8778 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,100 tons and an increase of 1.68% [27]. - The rebar inventory inflection point has appeared, and the increase is relatively large. As of the week of January 30, the total rebar inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535,000 tons and an increase of 12.68%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in the same period, and the pressure relief was limited [33][40]. 3.3 Steel Supply Remained Stable - The steel supply continued to shrink at the end of the year due to poor profitability of steel mills. In December, the national crude steel output was 68.1774 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.298 million tons and a decrease of 5.57%. At the beginning of the new year, steel mills began to resume production, and the output data of the China Iron and Steel Association rebounded in mid - January [47]. - High - frequency data also showed that steel mills began to resume production, but the overall increase was not large, and the steel supply remained stable, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 79.00% and 85.47% respectively, slightly higher than the same period last year [53]. - The profitability of steel mills changed little in the off - season. As of the week of January 30, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 39.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% but still at a relatively low level [54]. - In terms of varieties, the production of construction steel mills was active, and the rebar output continued to rise, increasing supply pressure. The production of plate steel mills was stable, and the hot - rolled coil output remained at a high level, with high inventory and large supply pressure [60][63]. 3.4 Steel Demand Showed Seasonal Weakness 3.4.1 High - Frequency Indicators Declined Seasonally - In the off - season, steel demand weakened, and high - frequency indicators declined seasonally, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand of the five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 392,800 tons. In January, the total steel demand was 34.7449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3197 million tons and a decrease of 3.66% [68]. - Construction steel demand showed obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remained stable at a high level. In January, the cumulative demand for construction steel was 10.9401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3262 million tons and a decrease of 10.81%. The plate demand was 23.8048 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons [68]. - The rebar demand declined seasonally, and the downstream industries did not improve, so the weak demand pattern would continue. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 176,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil demand remained stable, but there were concerns about the future due to unresolved downstream contradictions [73][80]. 3.4.2 Steel Exports Changed - In December 2025, China's steel exports reached a new monthly high, with an export volume of 11.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The annual cumulative export volume was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was partly due to the "rush - to - export" effect caused by the uncertainty of the new steel export license policy in 2026 [89]. - The performance of major steel export varieties was further differentiated. Plate exports were generally strong, and long - products became the core driving force for export growth in December. The export destinations were also adjusted, with some markets showing growth and some showing decline [90][91]. - With the gradual disappearance of the "rush - to - export" effect at the end of the year, combined with weak external demand and the policy adaptation period of enterprises, it is expected that China's steel exports will face downward pressure in the first two months of 2026 [93]. 3.4.3 The Domestic Economic Growth Target was Achieved - In December, the economic data declined, but the annual economic growth target was achieved as scheduled. The annual GDP growth rate was 5%. In December, industrial performance slightly exceeded expectations, social retail sales remained weak, and fixed - asset investment continued to be weak [100]. - The real - estate market was sluggish. In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the real - estate development investment decreased by 17.20% year - on - year. The funds available to real - estate enterprises did not improve, and the decline in funds in place continued to widen [102][104][105]. - Infrastructure investment continued to decline. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of narrow - sense infrastructure (excluding electricity) and broad - sense infrastructure turned negative for the first time. In the future, infrastructure investment is expected to gradually stabilize and recover at a low level [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.48%, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest. Currently, rebar supply is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but the cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.30%, also with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded. However, with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, and the demand for iron ore is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National general public budget revenue**: In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. Tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery trend throughout the year, reflecting the stable and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly because the one - time arrangement of special income remittance by central units in 2024 raised the base [7]. - **Transportation fixed - asset investment**: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment continued to operate at a high level, with an expected investment of over 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment was 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 120 billion yuan [8]. - **Vietnamese anti - dumping measures on Chinese H - beams**: Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the anti - dumping duties on H - beams originating from China will expire on September 6, 2027. Interested parties should submit an application for anti - dumping sunset review investigation before February 27, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as the national average prices, are provided. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,317 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai (4.75mm) was 3,270 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the national average price was 3,300 yuan, down 1 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of PB powder (at Shandong ports), Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indicators such as freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices are presented. For instance, the price of PB powder was 789 yuan, down 9 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,128 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, an increase of 191,871 lots, and the open interest was 1,734,110 lots, a decrease of 51,270 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,288 yuan, with a decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, an increase of 89,353 lots, and the open interest was 1,529,652 lots, a decrease of 17,466 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, a decrease of 29,418 lots, and the open interest was 541,228 lots, a decrease of 14,164 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][19]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, including their seasonal changes and环比 changes [24][25][28]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills from 2022 to 2026 [32][34][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the steel price oscillates and stabilizes under the dominant optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, reaching a relatively high level again, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the potential contradiction accumulation, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand, and attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore runs smoothly. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the steel market in the off - season are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. According to the shipping schedule, the reduction in port arrivals is limited, and the domestic ore supply is stable, coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to 16,360 yuan/ton, and the price at the close was slightly down 1.09% to 16,360 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 135 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall rise and fall of the energy - chemical sector, the Shanghai rubber futures closed lower under pressure, and it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a high - level shock trend in the future [5]. - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, rising and then falling, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The highest price of the contract rose to 2,394 yuan/ton, and the lowest price dropped to 2,302 yuan/ton. The price at the close was slightly down 0.64% to 2,320 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 24 yuan/ton. With the emergence of differences between long and short positions, the methanol futures may maintain a high - level shock trend [5]. - On Friday, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly rising. The highest price of the contract rose to 499.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest price dropped to 465.8 yuan/barrel. The price at the close was slightly up 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensifies again, the crude oil premium rebounds, and the short - term oil price maintains a pattern of shock and strength [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [7]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule was slightly increased, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control phenomena, dragging the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [7]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [8]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, reaching 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. At the same time, in terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 200 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [11]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, an increase of 34.07%. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 95.12% [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | - 330 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 32 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | + 32 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 470.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 20.0 yuan/barrel | + 1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][18][21][23][25]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30][32][34][36]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][39][41][43][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon manganese oscillated and declined under the dominance of industrial logic. Although the prices once rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the increase in the cost side, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese did not improve substantially, leading to the price decline again. - As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, but it did not relieve the inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises. The inventory remained high, mainly concentrated in the main production areas, which may suppress the futures price. - The high inventory in the ferrosilicon manganese market, the narrowing of enterprise losses, and the continuous release of new production capacity mean that the supply pressure has not subsided, which will significantly inhibit the upward movement of ferrosilicon manganese prices. - At the beginning of the new year, steel mill production stabilized. The increased production enthusiasm of construction steel mills brought marginal improvement in ferrosilicon manganese demand. However, the limited improvement in steel mill profitability and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market led to weak production enthusiasm, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese continued to operate weakly and stably. - Looking ahead, the operating logic of the ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Ferrosilicon Manganese Oscillated and Declined in January - At the beginning of the new year, the market operating logic returned to the industrial side, and the ferrosilicon manganese price was under pressure again and fell back, giving up most of the previous gains. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by the warm sentiment in the commodity market and the significant increase in upstream costs. However, the supply - demand pattern did not improve substantially, with high enterprise inventory and slow destocking. - As of January 28, the futures price of the main ferrosilicon manganese contract closed at 5,832 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase to 6,074 yuan/ton during the period, a 1.49% decline from the end - of - last - month value. The spot price showed a similar trend, with a smaller fluctuation range than the futures price. The latest tender price of mainstream steel mills in January increased slightly [8]. 2. Ferrosilicon Manganese Inventory Remained High - As of January 23, the total inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 373,000 tons, a slight decrease of 13,000 tons from the end - of - last - month value, still at an absolute high level, 148% higher than the same period last year. - The inventory in different regions increased or decreased in January. The inventory in the main production area of Ningxia continued to rise, reaching a new high, with a year - on - year increase of 305%. There is a risk of the inventory being converted into exchange warehouse receipts. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, and the inventory available days increased significantly. However, it did not effectively reduce the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises, indicating obvious industrial contradictions. - As of January 27, the exchange warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon manganese increased. If the price difference is appropriate, enterprises may actively hedge on the futures market, which may put pressure on the futures price [18][26][29]. 3. Limited Supply Contraction of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In December, the production of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was weak and stable, with little change in output. In 2025, the cumulative output of domestic ferrosilicon manganese was 10.1264 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22%. The monthly output reached a maximum of 915,700 tons in October. - The production enterprise's operating rate decreased significantly in 2025, but the output did not decrease significantly due to the release of new production capacity. In 2026, the to - be - put - into - production capacity of ferrosilicon manganese is as high as 3.0865 million tons. - As of January 23, the operating rate and daily output of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises rebounded, with a narrowing decline compared to the end - of - last - month value. The daily output was slightly lower than last year. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by cost increases, mainly due to the rise in manganese ore prices. However, the cost support effect needs to be tracked, as the supply - demand pattern of manganese ore has not improved substantially, and the sustainability of cost increases is questionable [31][34][37]. 4. Weak and Stable Demand for Ferrosilicon Manganese - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese has improved marginally. The production of short - process steel mills has been active, driving an increase in domestic steel output. - The improvement in downstream steel production has led to an increase in the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese converted from five major steel products has increased to 116,900 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year, but still at a low level. - There are concerns about the future growth space of ferrosilicon manganese demand. The profitability of steel mills has limited recovery, and the steel market is in the traditional off - season, with accumulating supply - demand contradictions. The demand is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably [56]. 5. Outlook for the Future - The ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [64].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂大跌 摘要 今日碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价报 148200 元/吨，盘中触及跌停 板，为近期最大单日跌幅。 | 锂电产业链相关价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 与前一 | 与前一周价 | | 指标 | | 单位 | 最新价格 | 日价格 | 格对比 | | | | | | 对比 | | | 期货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | ...

本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面利好不足，煤焦低位整理 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 核心观点 焦炭：根据钢联统计，截至 1 月 30 日当周，焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产 量合计 110.21 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.04 万吨。需求方面，全国 247 家铁水日均产量 227.98 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.12 万吨。焦炭 库存方面，本周独立焦化厂小幅累库、港口去库，钢厂大幅累库，显示 钢厂冬储补库需求开始加速释放。整体来看，焦炭基本面变化不大，且 原材料焦煤暂无持续性支撑，焦炭期货暂维持低位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to decline. As of today's close, Shanghai copper dropped by over RMB 10,000/ton from its high. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened significantly, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have declined notably. The willingness of previous long - position holders to close their positions has increased significantly. The spread between February and March contracts has weakened as copper prices fell, reflecting that the industry is not short of spot and near - month electrolytic copper. Technically, the futures price has fallen back to the trading range since January, and the pressure at the upper edge of the range can be continuously monitored [6]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum once rose to the RMB 26,000 mark and has since fallen back to around RMB 24,600 as of today's close. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened, non - ferrous metals have generally declined, and the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions is relatively strong. The spread between February and March contracts has rebounded significantly. As aluminum prices fall, the industry's willingness to replenish inventories may increase [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once rose to the RMB 150,000 mark and closed at the RMB 140,000 mark today. At the macro level, the short - term market has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has generally declined. Nickel prices have followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged, and short - term driving forces are weak. Technically, the support level at the RMB 140,000 mark should be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: This week, the raw material and finished product inventories of domestic refined copper rods have generally run smoothly. Raw material procurement and stocking have been advancing in an orderly manner, with a slight accumulation of inventory. The finished product inventory has increased due to the slowdown in downstream pick - up rhythm and the pre - holiday stocking operations of enterprises. On January 29, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 335,800 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from January 26 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: On January 30, China Aluminum (02600.HK) announced that on the same day, the company, Rio Tinto, and Valoriza Alumínio jointly entered into a share purchase agreement. According to the agreement, the company and Rio Tinto will acquire 446,606,615 common shares of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) held by Valoriza Alumínio through a joint - venture company in cash. These shares account for 68.596% of the total issued shares of CBA, and the acquisition price is approximately 4.689 billion Brazilian reals, equivalent to approximately RMB 6.286 billion [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME+COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and the relationship between the spread of Shanghai copper contracts and the main contract price [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum spread between contracts, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Core View - The report describes the "tea cultivation" practice of Hangzhou futures traders during the Beginning of Spring, emphasizing that they balance the market's noise and the tranquility of life through tea - related rituals and traditional Chinese health - preserving methods, and gain inspiration from nature and traditional wisdom to face market fluctuations calmly [2][4] Summary by Related Aspects Morning Routine - Old futures trader Li prepares "Beginning of Spring Liver - soothing Tea" with roses, wolfberries, chrysanthemums, and tangerine peels every morning during the Beginning of Spring, believing it can relieve anxiety caused by watching market trends [2] - Li reduces coffee intake and has yam and poria cocos porridge with osmanthus cakes for breakfast, and sometimes buys spring bamboo shoot and fresh meat buns [3] Mid - day Activity - During the lunch break, Li and his friends take a walk by the canal, relax their nerves in nature, and regard it as a "yang - nourishing" activity [3] Evening and Night - In the evening, Li sits quietly at his desk, lights sandalwood, listens to the guqin music "Flowing Water", and reads "Suwen" to relieve fatigue [3] - At night, Li sips warm tea, reflecting on the day's market fluctuations, and realizes that both health - preserving and trading require conforming to the timing of nature [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic and financial situation is complex and volatile, with various factors affecting different markets. In the commodity market, precious metals experience significant price fluctuations, and there are supply - demand imbalances in some metals. In the financial market, the bond market is in a state of shock, and the stock market shows a mixed performance. International trade relations also have an impact on the market, such as the potential tariff adjustments between countries [5][21][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, China's GDP growth rate slowed down, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends, and the social financing scale decreased compared with the previous month. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 also changed, and consumer and producer prices showed different trends. Fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, while consumption and trade maintained growth but with varying degrees of slowdown [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warns of market risks due to complex international situations. Some funds and banks adjust relevant parameters, and there are changes in commodity base - spreads. In addition, the Fed's interest - rate decisions and international trade tariff policies also affect the market [2][3][4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Precious metals experience a "roller - coaster" price movement. Gold jewelry prices reach a record high, and there are different outlooks for the gold market in the short - and long - term. The copper market is expected to have supply shortages in 2026 and 2027, and there are changes in the inventories of various metals [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - China's stainless - steel production increased in 2025, while imports decreased. India explores coal reserves in Canada, and Brazil raises steel import tariffs. The Trump administration retreats from the plan to guarantee the minimum price of key mineral projects [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Venezuela reforms its petroleum law to allow private and foreign investment. The US imposes potential tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Chinese government conducts spring seed market inspections. There are changes in US soybean sales, EU crop production forecasts, and Brazil's coffee - baking industry revenue [11][12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducts 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds into the market [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the UK reach a series of cooperation agreements, including in the financial field and tariff reduction. China promotes service - consumption growth, and there are positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. There are also news in areas such as transportation, culture and tourism, and finance [15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is in a state of shock, with different performances of short - and long - term bonds. There are price changes in exchange - traded bonds, and the convertible - bond market shows a decline. Interest rates in the money market and bond - issuing yields also have different trends [21][22][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar change, and the US dollar index declines, while most non - US currencies rise [26]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Different securities firms have different views on the Fed's interest - rate decisions, short - term debt pricing, and the bond market [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - There are a large number of bond listings, issuances, payments, and principal - and - interest repayments on January 30, 2026 [29]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market shows a narrow - range consolidation, with the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the decline of other indices. The liquor, gold, oil and gas, and real - estate sectors perform strongly, while some high - tech sectors decline. The Hong Kong stock market also shows a mixed performance, with the rise of the Hang Seng Index and the decline of the Hang Seng Tech Index [30].