1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 13, 2026, the stock indices oscillated and declined, with CSI 1000 and CSI 500 leading the losses. The total market trading volume was 3698.7 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The decline was due to the significant increase in the valuation of previously rising stocks and the increasing need for profit - taking by profitable funds. Since the beginning of 2026, the performance of large - and small - cap stocks has diverged, with small - cap stocks rising more, so CSI 1000 and CSI 500 led the decline in this correction. The continuous increase in trading volume indicates that market sentiment remains optimistic, and the short - term correction will not change the strong trend of the stock indices. With the continuous fermentation of positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds, the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock indices is relatively solid. It is expected that the stock indices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term. In the options market, the current position PCR and implied volatility have both increased, and a bull spread strategy can be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On January 13, 2026, 50ETF fell 0.12% to 3.214; SSE 300ETF fell 0.35% to 4.896; SZSE 300ETF fell 0.40% to 4.972; CSI 300 Index fell 0.60% to 4761.03; CSI 1000 Index fell 1.84% to 8203.13; SSE 500ETF fell 1.31% to 8.306; SZSE 500ETF fell 1.77% to 3.271; GEM ETF fell 1.93% to 3.306; Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.13% to 3.512; SSE 50 Index fell 0.34% to 3132.93; STAR 50ETF fell 2.82% to 1.55; E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 2.73% to 1.50 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Position PCR**: The volume PCR and position PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 56.98 (previous day: 58.99), and the position PCR was 98.88 (previous day: 99.05) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of various options' at - the - money options were provided. For instance, the implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options' at - the - money options in January 2026 was 16.96%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.77% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [23]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [35]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [42]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [55]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [68]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Included charts of GEM ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [81]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [92]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [105]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [118]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, SHFE copper oscillated between 102,000 and 104,000 yuan, with little change in open interest. Last night, non - ferrous metals and precious metals rose and then fell, and short - term long - position closing intention increased. The global observable visible inventory is close to 1 million tons, and domestic social inventory increased by about 35,000 tons in a single week. In the short term, silver can be used as a barometer, but last night the willingness of non - ferrous metals to follow the rise was relatively weak, and the industry needs time to digest. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly, with a slight decline in open interest. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the non - ferrous metal sector rose and then fell. The short - term long - position closing intention was strong. As the aluminum price exceeded the 24,000 - yuan mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high, and the long - short game of funds intensified [7]. - **Nickel**: Today, SHFE nickel rose and then fell, continued to decline in the afternoon, breaking below the 140,000 - yuan mark, with a significant decline in open interest. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the non - ferrous metal sector rose and then fell. Nickel has accumulated a gain of over 30% since its low in late December. The short - term long - position closing intention was strong. Industrially, the electrolytic nickel inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME continued to rise, and the weak industrial reality pattern remained unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Recently, the current contract of SHFE copper mainly fluctuated between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan/ton, but the spot discount has significantly converged. As the delivery of the SHFE copper 2601 contract approaches, most of the goods have been converted into futures warehouse receipts due to the large spot discount, the market supply has decreased, and the short - term Contango structure of SHFE has reduced the willingness of holders to sell, supporting the convergence of the discount. The downstream consumption is still mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and it is expected that the spot will return to a discount when trading the SHFE copper 2602 contract. The new collective negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile remains deadlocked due to the continued impact of the strike on production [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts of copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][18]. - **Aluminum**: Charts of aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum rod inventory are presented [23][25][31]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][45].

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 塑料 空头优势减弱 宝城期货 陈栋 昨日，塑料期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓、震荡偏强，小幅收涨的态势。盘中期价重心稳步上移至 6735 元/吨一线上方运行，最高上涨至 6738 元/吨。收盘时期价小幅收涨 1.35%，至 6737 元/吨。持仓小幅减少 509 手，至 490780 手，降幅为 0.1%。 交易所多空持仓排行榜前 20 席位数据显示，塑料期货 2605 合约持仓出现多空双增的态势。其中，多 头合计增持 5238 手，至 307167 手；空头合计增持 4364 手，至 358184 手。由于多头合计增持数量超过空 头合计增持数量，导致净空头寸缩小至 51017 手。 具体来看，塑料期货 2605 合约多头前 20 席位中，增持多单的有 11 家。其中，增持多单数量超过 1000 手的有 3 家，分别为东证期货席位、永安期货席位和方正中期席位，分别大幅增加 2432 手、1125 手和 2200 手。另外，增持多单数量介于 100 手至 1000 手之间的有 7 家，分别为国泰君安期货席位、银河期货席位、 瑞达期货席位、南华期货席位、中泰期货席位、国贸期货席位和紫金天风期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，港存高位累库，钢厂虽有所复产，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但盈利状 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 乐观氛围延续，焦煤偏强运行 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 成本强支撑，焦炭小幅上行 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall outlook of bullish operation [1] - Due to geopolitical risks, the domestic crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a bullish and volatile trend on Tuesday [5] 3. Summary of Key Points Price and Market Outlook - For crude oil 2603, short - term is volatile, medium - term is volatile, and intraday is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1] Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, and the US threatens a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle East geopolitical risks. The weak supply - demand pattern of the oil market is gradually weakened, and the geopolitical factors support the domestic crude oil futures prices to maintain a bullish and volatile trend on Tuesday [5] Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading, calculate the price change from the night - trading closing price to the day - trading closing price; for those without night trading, calculate from the previous day's closing price to the day - trading closing price [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3] - The bullish/bearish description only applies to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [4]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expectation of coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival has provided supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after stopping the decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - Variety: Thermal coal spot - Intraday view: Not provided - Medium - term view: Oscillation - Core logic: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production due to achieving annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal output was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply increased. Recently, the decline in domestic temperatures accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which was an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, short - term view is oscillation, medium - term view is oscillation, and intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, overall in low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weak real - world situation and off - season pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Commodity sentiment is warm, and ferrous metals are oscillating and stabilizing. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The inventory inflection point has appeared, construction steel mills are resuming production, rebar output is continuously increasing with more potential for growth, weakening the positive effect of low - supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues its seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, and downstream industries not improving, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The weak demand continues to drag down steel prices. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand remains weak, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend on Tuesday, February 13, 2026 [1][5][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, geopolitical risks have weakened, and the expectation of a decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply has dissipated, reducing the bullish drive. Currently, the domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the Shanghai rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and stable trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. The Shanghai rubber futures maintain a volatile and strong pattern, indirectly supporting the synthetic rubber futures. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the synthetic rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and weak trend [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations for monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to factors such as the weakening of the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures and the insufficient upward momentum, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. As the price of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the interest rate cut expectations implied by the Treasury bond yield to maturity faded, and the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate emerged. Coupled with the central bank's resumption of net investment in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakened. However, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. But the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, inflation data improved, and the short - term urgency of interest rate cuts weakened, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures [5].