Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, expecting a return above 10% over the next 12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - CR Beverage is positioned to benefit from national expansion and market penetration strategies, which are expected to drive revenue growth [9]. - The company plans to improve its gross margin by increasing its self-production ratio from approximately 50% in 1H24 to 70% by FY26F, which will enhance cost control and product quality [2]. - The target price for CR Beverage is set at HKD 17.50, based on a 20x FY25F price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting the average valuation of the Chinese beverage sector [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for CR Beverage are as follows: - FY23: RMB 13,515 million - FY24: RMB 14,224 million - FY25: RMB 15,217 million - FY26: RMB 16,443 million - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from FY24 to FY26 is estimated at 3.5% [3]. - Net profit forecasts are: - FY23: RMB 1,329 million - FY24: RMB 1,626 million - FY25: RMB 1,891 million - FY26: RMB 2,067 million - The CAGR for adjusted net profit from FY24 to FY26 is projected at 16.8% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - CR Beverage holds an 18.4% market share, ranking second in China's packaged water market, with significant growth potential in northern and central-western regions [1]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence by deepening penetration in lower-tier cities and expanding retail network coverage [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 22 CNY per share [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to record a net profit of between 0.5 billion to 2.5 billion CNY for 2024, a significant decrease from 4.8 billion CNY in the previous year [7]. - The report highlights that while revenue is anticipated to decline due to weak demand, cost pressures are expected to ease, leading to an improvement in gross and operating profit margins [7]. - A substantial impairment loss is projected to impact the company's overall profitability, primarily due to losses from its subsidiary Bellamy's and its joint venture Modern Dairy [7]. - The outlook for 2025 is more optimistic, with expectations of gradual revenue recovery driven by favorable policies and supply-demand improvements in the dairy sector [7]. - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a historical dividend yield of over 2% [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in dairy products, with a market capitalization of 56.43 billion CNY [2]. - The major shareholder is COFCO Group, holding 24.14% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 4.809 billion CNY in 2023, with projections of 121 million CNY for 2024, followed by a recovery to 4.405 billion CNY in 2025 and 5.075 billion CNY in 2026 [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to drop to 0.03 CNY in 2024, then rise to 1.12 CNY in 2025 and 1.30 CNY in 2026 [9]. Market Position - The product mix is heavily weighted towards liquid milk (81.18%), with ice cream (7.55%), milk powder (3.66%), cheese (4.73%), and other products making up the remainder [3]. - The stock price has shown a 15.82% increase over the past month, while it has decreased by 1.43% over the past year [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance for FY2024, with revenue increasing by 19.6% to RMB 10.07 billion and net profit rising by 19.5% to RMB 1.15 billion [3][4] - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 40% in FY2023 to 45% in FY2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3] - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency across its children's and adult clothing segments, with children's clothing revenue reaching RMB 2.34 billion and adult clothing revenue at RMB 7.38 billion, both growing around 19% [3][4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: RMB 8.42 billion (FY2023), RMB 10.07 billion (FY2024), RMB 11.30 billion (FY2025E), RMB 12.38 billion (FY2026E), and RMB 13.45 billion (FY2027E), with growth rates of 21%, 20%, 12%, 10%, and 9% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts are RMB 0.96 billion (FY2023), RMB 1.15 billion (FY2024), RMB 1.30 billion (FY2025E), RMB 1.45 billion (FY2026E), and RMB 1.58 billion (FY2027E), with growth rates of 29%, 20%, 13%, 12%, and 9% respectively [2] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [2] Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized its accounts receivable turnover, maintaining an average of 149 days, with an increase in the proportion of receivables collected within 90 days from 59.3% to 62.5% [3] - Inventory turnover days increased to 107 days, attributed to a strategic increase in finished goods to meet e-commerce demand during the Spring Festival [3] - The company has reduced its payable turnover days to 88 days, down by 22 days, due to partnerships with new quality suppliers [3] Market Outlook - Management expresses confidence in achieving a sales growth of 10-15% in 2025, primarily driven by volume growth [3] - The company aims to maintain a gross margin of 40-42% and a net profit margin of 10-12% in the upcoming years [3] - The company has been focusing on product, brand, and channel enhancements, which are expected to yield faster growth than the industry average [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 经营反转周期正展开 目标价：7.5 港元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2023 | 2024E | | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 19,532 | 21,020 | | 22,801 | 24,325 | | YoY | -8.3% | 7.6% | | 8.5% | 6.7% | | 归母净利润（百万 元） | 3,390 | 3,875 | | 4,481 | 4,976 | | YoY | -31.4% | 14.3% | | 15.7% | 11.0% | | 每股盈利（元） | 0.37 | 0.43 | | 0.49 | 0.55 | | 市盈率（倍） | 14.6 | 12.8 | | 11.1 | 10.0 | | 市净率（倍） | 2.0 | 1.9 | | 1.7 | 1.6 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 2025 | 年 3 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK) and lowers the target price to HKD 6.6, indicating a potential downside of 14% from the current price of HKD 7.7 [2][3][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth is expected to recover to a double-digit year-on-year increase of 11% in the second half of 2024, reversing a continuous decline since 2022. However, the adjusted net profit margin has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, failing to sustain previous improvements [2][7]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve low double-digit revenue growth, but the potential for profit margin improvement appears limited due to significant expense reductions in 2024 and forward-looking investments in elder care and AI projects [2][7]. - The integration with Ping An Group is anticipated to enhance business synergies, but the extent of additional business growth from this consolidation remains uncertain [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Ping An Good Doctor are as follows (in million RMB): - 2023: 4,674 - 2024: 4,808 (up 2.9% YoY) - 2025E: 5,480 (up 14.0% YoY) - 2026E: 6,253 (up 14.1% YoY) - 2027E: 7,211 (up 15.3% YoY) [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching RMB 81 million, with further growth to RMB 169 million in 2025 [3][8]. - The company's gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 32.3% in 2023 to 31.1% by 2027 [8]. Market Expectations - The report indicates that the market anticipates a revenue growth rate of 7% for Ping An Good Doctor in the coming years, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.0 for 2025E [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 0.70, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 0.57 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance, with a high probability of earnings recovery in 2025. This is supported by a low valuation and an increased dividend yield, which provides significant upside potential compared to downside risks [8]. - The revenue trend is anticipated to reverse starting in the second quarter of 2024, with management expressing confidence in achieving year-on-year revenue growth in the latter half of 2024 [8]. - The operating profit margin for 2025 is projected to improve slightly due to better retail discounts and an increased sales proportion of new products, despite potential challenges from e-commerce growth affecting channel structure [8]. - The company is likely to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2025, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10%, providing a safety net for the stock price [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to decline from RMB 20,064 million in 2023 to RMB 18,592 million in 2025, with a year-on-year change of -8% in 2024 and a slight recovery of 1% in 2025 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 523 million in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 450% in 2023, followed by modest growth rates in subsequent years [3][10]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 5.6x in 2023 to 4.0x in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 0.48 to HKD 0.69, with a current market capitalization of HKD 3,036 million [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 0.7 million, suggesting moderate liquidity in the stock [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Genscript Biotech [2][4][6] Core Insights - The deconsolidation of Legend Biotech has led to a significant profit improvement for Genscript, with a profit from discontinued operations of approximately $3 billion, compared to a loss of about $518 million in the same period last year [7][17] - The continuing business segments are expected to show positive trends in 2025, with revenue from continuing operations projected at approximately $594.5 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [3][14] - The total equity valuation of Genscript is estimated at $6.296 billion, translating to a target price of HK$22.78 per share [6][17] Summary by Segment Life Sciences Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $523 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% and an adjusted operating profit of $104 million, also growing by 15% [13][14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $454.9 million, up by 10.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $237.7 million [3][14] Biologics Development Services Segment - Projected Fee-for-Service revenue for 2025 is $113 million, up by 19% year-on-year [14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was about $95 million, down by 13.2% year-on-year, but showed a recovery with a growth rate of about 38% in the second half of 2024 [3][14] Industrial Synthetic Biology Products Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $67 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $53.7 million, up by 24.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $22.6 million [3][14] Legend Biotech - Following the deconsolidation, the market capitalization of Legend Biotech was approximately $6.8 billion, with Genscript holding a 47.51% stake valued at about $3.231 billion [5][16]

证券研究报告 越秀交通基建 (1052 HK) 港股通 业绩符合预期，但摊销上调或成隐忧 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 14 日│中国香港 | 路桥 | 越秀交通基建公布 2024 年业绩：收入 38.67 亿元，同比-2.5%；归母净利 润 6.57 亿元，同比-14.2%，基本符合我们预期（6.46 亿元）。盈利下滑主 因：1）行业层面：收费天数减少、1Q 恶劣天气、运输需求不足；2）公司 层面：摊销费用大幅增长、广州北环到期、路网分流影响。公司拟派发末期 股息 0.13 港元/股，连同已派发的中期股息 0.12 港元/股，全年分红比例拟 达到 58.5%、股息率约 6.7%。公司在 24 年下半年进一步上调无形资产摊 销，或对 25 年盈利产生拖累。考虑摊销调整对经营现金流无影响，我们也 仍然看好公司持续收购路产的能力，维持"买入"。 24 年盈利下滑，主因摊销上调与广州北环到期 因天津津雄高速剩余收费期较短以及展期需要额外资本开支，公司在 24 年 末出售该项目，录得处置收益 6584 万元。公司在 23 ...

证券研究报告 中国飞鹤 (6186 HK) 港股通 生育政策加码，婴配粉龙头有望迎来利好 华泰研究 动态点评 2025 年 3 月 14 日│中国香港 食品 今年以来，生育刺激政策正在加速落地：3 月 6 日财政部部长蓝佛安表示今 年加大对民生领域的投入力度，让居民收入更稳定，同时提出对幼儿发放育 儿补贴，建立学前教育国家资助制度；3 月 7 日国家卫生健康委员会主任雷 海潮指出今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同有关部门起草相关的育 儿补贴的操作方案（据第一财经）；3 月 13 日内蒙古呼和浩特发布育儿补贴 细则（对于生育一孩/二孩/三孩及以上分别发放补贴 1/5/10 万元），3 月 1 日起实施，提供产妇 "一杯奶"生育关怀，同时，义务教育阶段二孩入学 "幼随长走、就近择优"&三孩及以上家庭孩子入学可在全市自由选择。政 策端多措并举、居民生育意愿有望提升，公司作为婴配粉龙头企业迎来利好， 维持"买入"评级。 24 年新生人口数量同比增加，生育刺激落地有望带来发展新机遇 伴随着新国标出台后中小品牌促销及去库存已步入尾声，婴配粉行业竞争趋 于理性，整体价盘逐步企稳，据国家统计局数据，24 年我国出生人口数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 9.00 [6][15][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2H24 was HKD 2.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, exceeding the consensus estimate of HKD 2.47 billion, primarily due to better-than-expected income from health and elderly care services [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit was HKD 0.07 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of HKD 0.09 billion, attributed to forward-looking investments in elderly care, corporate health, and AI business [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of synergies with the group and the progress of AI technology in enhancing business efficiency [1]. Revenue and Profitability - Medical services revenue increased by 6.7% to HKD 1.11 billion in 2H24, driven by enhanced collaboration with group medical insurance and the development of family doctor compensation models [2]. - The gross margin for medical services improved to 46.6%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year, due to structural changes within the business [2]. - Health services revenue decreased by 0.2% to HKD 1.37 billion, impacted by one-time factors and a high base from 2H23 [3]. - The gross margin for health services fell to 18.9%, down 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, due to the expansion of corporate health services with lower profitability [3]. Strategic Developments - The company achieved steady progress in expanding high-value strategic users, with F-end strategic business revenue growing by 9.6% to HKD 2.42 billion in 2H24 [4]. - B-end strategic business revenue surged by 32.7% to HKD 1.43 billion, with the number of serviced enterprises reaching 2,049 [4]. - The company is focusing on building "two major hubs and four networks" in its medical service network, with nearly 4,000 cooperating hospitals and 235,000 cooperating pharmacies as of 2H24 [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 23.3% and 22.1% to HKD 0.30 billion and HKD 0.39 billion, respectively, due to AI cost reduction and cautious expense management [5]. - The new target price based on DCF is HKD 9.00, up from HKD 7.50, corresponding to 3.3x and 3.0x the projected PS for 2025 and 2026 [15]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 5.38 billion in 2025, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [7].