Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2Q25 unaudited revenue of $1.039 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $32 million, up 6.2%, while the adjusted net profit decreased by 29.1% to $36 million [1][2]. - The education segment, excluding certain businesses, generated $894 million in revenue, marking a 31.3% increase, surpassing previous guidance [2]. - The company expects FY3Q25 education revenue to be between $1.01 billion and $1.03 billion, reflecting a growth of 20-23% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 52.0%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year. The operating profit margin (excluding e-commerce) was 2.8%, up 1.0 percentage points [3]. - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 to FY27 is $490 million, $670 million, and $850 million, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 34.75%, 35.96%, and 27.21% [4]. Revenue Growth - The education business saw significant growth, with overseas exam training and consultation services increasing by 21.1% and 31.0%, respectively. Domestic exam training for adults and college students grew by 34.9% [2]. - The number of active paid users for the smart learning system increased by 44.2% to 261,000 [2]. Cost Management - The company effectively controlled costs, with a sales expense ratio of 18.9% and a management expense ratio of 31.3%, both showing slight increases [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - The company has announced a dividend plan to gradually increase the payout ratio to 50%, 60%, and 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three fiscal years [1]. - The board believes that the dividend plan aligns with the best interests of the company and its shareholders, responding to market demands and protecting investor rights while maintaining financial health for sustainable development [1]. - The company plans to buy back 103,000 shares as part of its restricted stock unit plan, indicating confidence in its business outlook and addressing undervaluation concerns [2]. - The expected increase in dividends is anticipated to enhance investor benefits and boost confidence, especially given the attractive dividend yield in a low valuation environment [3]. - The company has launched a new youth programming education brand, i01, aimed at aligning with new educational standards and fostering talent in technology and innovation [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 800 million RMB, 1.53 billion RMB, and 1.83 billion RMB for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026, respectively [5]. - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 180 million RMB, 280 million RMB, and 340 million RMB for the same periods [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.21 RMB, 0.33 RMB, and 0.40 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17x, 11x, and 9x [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Ctrip Group has achieved a doubling stock performance in 2024, with a 95% increase in Hong Kong stocks, driven by sustained travel demand and improved operational efficiency compared to pre-pandemic levels [4][5] - The resilience of domestic travel demand is supported by government policies aimed at boosting cultural and tourism consumption, with a notable increase in domestic travel participants and revenue growth [4][10] - The company's hotel business is expected to stabilize in pricing, with a projected recovery in hotel room rates in 2025, supported by increased online penetration and demand [4][25] - Ctrip's outbound tourism segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to growth, with international flight capacity recovering and a projected 17% increase in international flights in 2025 [4][50] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip Group has positioned itself as a leading player in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, benefiting from a strong recovery in domestic and outbound travel markets [3][4] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, Ctrip's revenue grew by 19%, and Non-GAAP net profit increased by 44% compared to the previous year [4][5] - The company has maintained a stable commission rate for hotels, with expectations for room rates to stabilize in 2025 [25][34] Market Trends - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior towards experiential travel, with domestic tourism showing a double-digit growth in participants [10][17] - Ctrip's online penetration in the hotel sector is expected to improve, with a current online booking rate of approximately 40% for hotels compared to over 70% in the US [4][26] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Ctrip's international business will continue to expand, with a focus on enhancing its market share in outbound travel as international flight capacities recover [44][50] - Government policies aimed at boosting service consumption and tourism are expected to provide a favorable environment for Ctrip's growth in 2025 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5]. Core Views - The company has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation for the 2025-2028 period, which is expected to enhance its brand image and marketing efforts [2][4]. - In the fourth quarter, the company's e-commerce sales growth accelerated, with a reported increase of 26% compared to the previous quarter [3][7]. - The company launched a new midsole technology called "超䨻" in November, introducing six new basketball and running shoe models featuring this innovation [11][12]. - Despite short-term pressures on profitability due to increased marketing expenses related to the Olympic partnership, the company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its product competitiveness and growth potential in the mid to long term [3][16]. Summary by Sections Company Partnership - On January 15, 2025, the company was announced as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the sports delegation for the upcoming Olympic and Asian Games [2][4]. Sales Performance - The fourth quarter saw a significant improvement in sales performance across various platforms, with the company’s e-commerce sales growing by 26% compared to the previous quarter [3][7]. - The overall sales growth for the sports brand sector in the fourth quarter showed a positive trend, with other brands also reporting improved sales figures [7]. Product Innovation - The introduction of the "超䨻" technology is expected to lead the industry in innovation, with new products designed to enhance performance for athletes [11][12]. Financial Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 3.06 billion, 3.06 billion, and 3.42 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -4.1%, 0.0%, and +11.9% [3][18]. - The target price remains at 17.9-19.2 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14-15x for 2025 [3][16].

医药生物 2025 年 01 月 21 日 复锐医疗科技 (01696) ——领航全球能量源设备，加速构建美丽健康多元化生态 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 01 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.50 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7320.88 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 5.02/2.75 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 16.39 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 468.34 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0854 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 上 市 公 司 -38% 162% 01/22 02/22 03/22 04/22 05/22 06/22 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 HSCEI 复锐医疗科技 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 联系人 王盼 (8621)232978 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 177 HKD / 23 USD, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of 137.2 HKD [4][5][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with adjusted net profit reaching 400 million RMB and an adjusted net profit margin of 5.3% [3]. - The strong performance of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" is anticipated to drive a 76% year-on-year growth in game revenue for Q4 2024, with a focus on long-term operations and an overseas version launch planned for 2025 [3]. - Advertising revenue is projected to reach 2.4 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase, supported by the exploration of multi-scenario advertising models and a recent partnership with the Central Radio and Television Station [3]. Financial Projections - The financial model forecasts the following revenue and profit figures (in million RMB): - FY22 Revenue: 21,899 - FY23 Revenue: 22,528 - FY24E Revenue: 26,679 - FY25E Revenue: 29,700 - FY26E Revenue: 32,254 - Adjusted Net Profit FY25E: 1,825 - Adjusted Net Profit FY26E: 2,911 [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 62.84, based on a FY25 PE of 25X [3]. Core Views - The K12 education training policy is improving, with a significant reduction in offline training institutions, leading to a shift from academic tutoring to quality education training. The high school student population is expected to grow, and the declining college admission rates will drive the recovery of the high school academic training market [2]. - The company's brand strength remains robust, with revenue and capacity recovering to industry-leading levels. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of profit margins as capacity increases [2]. - Future growth drivers include strong demand for quality training and learning devices, recovery in overseas study services, and potential growth in cultural tourism and e-commerce businesses [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the education sector for 31 years, evolving from providing exam preparation for students studying abroad to a comprehensive education group covering various services including K12 training, overseas study services, vocational education, and online education [1][15]. K12 Education - The K12 education sector is experiencing favorable policies and effective supply clearing, with a 96.7% reduction in offline academic training institutions by January 2025. The demand for quality training is expected to grow as the market shifts from academic tutoring [2][36]. - The company is well-positioned to capture the growing demand for quality education and learning devices, with a significant increase in the number of students participating in quality education programs [2][45]. Overseas Study Services - The demand for overseas study services is recovering, with the market expected to stabilize as the supply of study institutions improves. The company holds a leading position in this sector [2][3]. Other Businesses - The cultural tourism business is anticipated to become a new growth curve, while the e-commerce segment is expected to recover from short-term challenges and return to reasonable growth in the medium to long term [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of USD 528 million, USD 692 million, and USD 887 million for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.5%, 31.1%, and 28.2% [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 46.7% from the current price of HKD 9.20 [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The company has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting revenue and profit growth of no less than 25% and 100% respectively for 2024. The second half of 2024 is projected to see revenue growth of at least 30% year-on-year [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been revised upward by 4%, driven by better-than-expected growth in key account (KA) business and last-mile delivery services. The report anticipates a decrease in unit prices due to improved delivery efficiency and changes in business structure [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 132 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 160%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 0.8% [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are RMB 15,498 million, RMB 19,350 million, and RMB 23,490 million respectively, with growth rates of 25.1%, 24.8%, and 21.4% [6][15]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 132 million, with a net profit margin of 0.8%. For 2025E, the adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 262 million, with a margin of 1.4% [6][15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the gross profit for 2024E, estimated at RMB 1,022 million, with a gross margin of 6.6% [6][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of -0.97%, with a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.30. The market capitalization is approximately HKD 6,695.48 million [5][15]. - The report indicates that the company's stock performance is expected to align positively with the anticipated growth in the instant delivery industry, driven by strong demand [2][7].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$525 0, implying a 34 7% upside from the current price of HK$389 80 [1][3] Core Views - Tencent is expected to deliver solid earnings performance in 4Q24, driven by strong games revenue growth and resilient marketing business [1] - Total revenue is forecasted to grow by 8% YoY to RMB167 6bn, with non-IFRS net income growing by 29% YoY to RMB55 2bn in 4Q24 [1] - Long-term growth initiatives like Weixin e-commerce and AI are viewed positively, with management optimistic about Weixin's role in the e-commerce ecosystem and AI as a key growth driver for the marketing business [1][8] Earnings Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB554 6bn in FY22 to RMB755 8bn in FY26, with adjusted net profit increasing from RMB115 6bn in FY22 to RMB257 6bn in FY26 [2] - Adjusted EPS is projected to rise from RMB12 13 in FY22 to RMB26 60 in FY26 [2] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 55 2x in FY22 to 17 4x in FY26, reflecting improved earnings growth [2] Business Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for FY24-26E are largely unchanged, with slight downward revisions of -0 1% to -0 3% [9] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 53 1% in FY24E to 54 4% in FY26E, driven by higher-margin games and marketing businesses [9] - Operating margin is projected to increase from 31 9% in FY24E to 33 7% in FY26E [9] - The SOTP-derived target price of HK$525 0 includes valuations for games (HK$199 9), SNS (HK$29 4), marketing (HK$110 3), fintech (HK$82 5), cloud (HK$22 0), strategic investments (HK$68 4), and net cash (HK$12 7) [10][11][12][13][14] Key Takeaways from NDR - Weixin e-commerce is positioned as a connector in the ecosystem, leveraging third-party services and technology to reduce transaction frictions [8] - AI remains a key growth driver for the marketing business, with Tencent maintaining leadership due to its large user base and use cases [8] - Tencent's inclusion in the US CMC list and removal from the USTR "Notorious Markets List" are seen as positive developments [8] Peer Comparison - Tencent's gaming business is valued at an 18x 2025E PE, in line with global peers like NetEase and Electronic Arts [16] - The marketing business is valued at a 20x 2025E PE, reflecting its resilient ad revenue growth supported by Weixin Video Account and Mini Program [16] - Fintech and cloud businesses are valued at premiums to peers, reflecting Tencent's strong market position and growth potential [16][17] Strategic Investments - Tencent's strategic investments are valued at HK$68 4 per share, with significant stakes in companies like PDD Holdings (14 1%), Sea Ltd (18 2%), and Spotify (8 4%) [19] - A 30% holding company discount is applied to the fair value of equity investments [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 16.8, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HKD 12.82 [2][72]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth due to high industry demand, with Shandong Hongqiao achieving a revenue of CNY 110.1 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit of CNY 15.8 billion, up 141% year-on-year [2][3]. - The integrated business model of the company provides a competitive advantage, ensuring stable supply and cost efficiency, with a self-sufficiency rate of 156% for alumina production [3][72]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be CNY 150.3 billion, CNY 153.2 billion, and CNY 154.3 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at CNY 20.9 billion, CNY 22.7 billion, and CNY 23.6 billion [72]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 133.6 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to CNY 150.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12% [5][72]. - The net profit for 2023 was CNY 11.5 billion, with expectations of CNY 22.8 billion in 2024, representing an 82% increase [5][72]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be CNY 2.20, CNY 2.40, and CNY 2.50 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [72]. Industry Context - The aluminum industry is experiencing high demand, with global electrolytic aluminum production growth slowing down, leading to a tight supply situation [24][29]. - The report highlights that China's aluminum production and consumption account for over half of the global totals, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.1% in demand from 2015 to 2024 [29][30]. Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized its cost structure, with a decrease in raw material prices contributing to improved profit margins [2][3]. - The report notes a steady decline in the company's debt ratio, which was 47% in 2023, indicating enhanced financial stability [18][20]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with forecasts of dividends per share at HKD 0.80, HKD 1.45, and HKD 1.58 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [70][72].