证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 11 日 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 30 8 14 相对表现 26 0 -3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 沪电股份 沪深300 相关报告 沪电股份（002463.SZ） Q2 业绩超预期，拟加码黄石基地扩产，看好中长线 AI 订单承接能力 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：1）公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。2）公司近期公告同意出于黄石沪士未 来经营发展的需求，2025 年 7 月至 2031 年 6 月期间，在不超过人民币 36 亿 元的总投资额度范围内，授权管理层可就潜在项目投资与黄石经济技术开发区 管理委员会进行磋商。我们点评如下： 强烈推荐（维持） 当前股价：47.25 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1923 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1922 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 90.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 90.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.6 | | ROE（TTM） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company has established a comprehensive IoT solution system based on "modules + platforms + terminals," which integrates hardware and software capabilities, positioning it to benefit from the growth of AI terminals. The company is expected to accelerate its growth trajectory as smart sleep terminals and overseas business enter a phase of rapid expansion. Additionally, the higher gross margin of overseas business is anticipated to improve the overall gross margin of the company [2][8]. Company Overview - The company initially focused on vehicle-mounted terminal products and has since expanded into smart hardware, covering three main areas: smart transportation, smart mobility, and smart payment hardware. It operates six business units, with the IoT unit providing foundational R&D support and self-developed communication modules, while the software/AI algorithm center enhances system integration and data service capabilities through cloud platforms [5][19]. Business Layout - The company’s growth engines are AI terminals and international expansion. Its smart vehicle-mounted terminals cater to both commercial and passenger vehicles, while smart mobility products target shared bicycles and electric bicycles. The smart sleep terminal, primarily an ODM smart bed cover, adjusts sleep conditions through precise temperature control and data analysis. The smart payment hardware includes cloud-based payment devices and other smart hardware products, with ongoing expansion of its product line [6][64]. Management Efficiency and Profitability - The company has implemented a "module + platform + terminal" business system and a standardized development model, enhancing R&D efficiency. The business unit management strategy allows for independent accounting of inputs and outputs, focusing on profit metrics to improve overall profitability. The company maintains a lower expense ratio compared to peers, attributed to a higher proportion of production personnel and lower wage levels in its operational region [7][21]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 219 million, CNY 273 million, and CNY 348 million from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 25%, and 28%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 33x, 27x, and 21x [8].

2025 年 07 月 10 日 沪电股份(002463.SZ) 受益 AI 新兴需求，上半年业绩大幅增 长 事件： 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，上半年归母净利润 165,000 万元 –175,000 万元，比上年同期增长 44.63% - 53.40%。扣非后净利润 161,000 万元-171,000 万元，比上年同期增长 44.85% - 53.85%。 深耕高端 PCB 客户，业绩大幅增长： | | PCB | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 买入-A | | | 维持评级 | | 6 个月目标价 | 58.21 元 | | 股价 (2025-07-10) | 47.25 元 | | 交易数据 | | | 总市值(百万元) | 90,880.11 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 90,821.20 | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,923.39 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,922.14 | 12 个月价格区间 24.94/49.07 元 股价表现 资料来源：Wind 资讯 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 相对收益 24.4 66.0 -2.4 绝对收益 28.2 73.4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has reported better-than-expected performance, with a forecasted revenue of 7.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.25 billion and 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5% to 15% [1][2] - The impact of tariff changes has been mitigated, and the company is expected to return to a stable growth trajectory due to its global production capacity layout, new product launches in electric tools, and innovations in cross-border e-commerce channels [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 790 million and 910 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 1.6% to 16.9% [1][2] - The company’s gross margin continues to improve, driven by price increases in the downstream markets and increased sales of new products, particularly electric tools [2] Tariff and Global Strategy - The company faced significant operational disruptions due to U.S. tariff policy changes, with approximately 40 days of order delivery being affected in Q2. However, the company has successfully adjusted prices and increased overseas shipments to maintain revenue stability [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is diminishing, with a new agreement reached between Vietnam and the U.S. regarding a 20% tariff, allowing the company to accelerate its production capacity in Southeast Asia [2] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current low point in industry prosperity may soon reverse, as the impacts of tariff friction are gradually fading. The company is well-positioned to gain market share due to its integrated global operations and cost advantages [3] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.92 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.5X, 9.5X, and 8.2X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

上 市 公 司 有色金属 2025 年 07 月 10 日 云铝股份 (000807) ——25Q2 原材料成本大幅改善，上半年业绩同比预增 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 16.27 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 19.27/11.13 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.52 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 56,423 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,509.68/10,631.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.45 | | 资产负债率% | 23.97 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,468/3,468 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-10 08-10 09-10 10-10 11-10 12-10 01-10 02-10 ...

上 市 公 司 2025 年 07 月 10 日 中国船舶 (600150) ——业绩预增超预期，船价已现企稳迹象重视左侧布局机 会 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 32.38 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 45.95/26.93 | | 市净率 | 2.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.39 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 144,817 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,509.68/10,631.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 国防军工 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.63 | | 资产负债率% | 68.80 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 4,472/4,472 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-10 08-10 09-10 10-10 11-10 12-10 01-10 02- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the MEMS inertial sensor market, benefiting from a fully controlled technology chain and high gross margins, with a projected revenue of 4.05 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.22 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4]. - The company has established a strong market presence, achieving a 23.45% market share in domestic MEMS gyroscopes by 2022, up approximately 14 percentage points from 2019 [2]. - The IMU segment is expected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of 175.8% from 2021 to 2024, driven by demand from low-altitude economy, advanced driving, and humanoid robots [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2012, has achieved full control over the technology chain from chip design to packaging and testing, with its third-generation MEMS gyroscope reaching international advanced levels [1][14]. - The leadership team has extensive experience in the semiconductor field, contributing to the company's technological advancements [16][18]. Core Product Layout - The company's core products, MEMS gyroscopes and accelerometers, have high technical barriers and are applicable in high-end industrial and unmanned systems [2]. - The company is gradually replacing imports in the MEMS inertial sensor market, with a focus on high-performance products [2][4]. IMU Growth Drivers - The IMU, which integrates gyroscopes and accelerometers, is positioned to benefit from emerging markets such as low-altitude economy and smart driving [3]. - The company is actively developing automotive-grade IMUs to meet the growing demand for high-precision positioning systems [3]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.19 billion yuan, 8.60 billion yuan, and 11.84 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.39 billion yuan, 4.59 billion yuan, and 6.04 billion yuan [4][5]. - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.85 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.51 yuan per share, respectively, with a PE ratio of 77X for 2025 [4][5].

离境退税和市内店纷纷落地，2Q25 销售有 望筑底回暖 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025–2027 年 EPS 分别为 2.24/2.60/3.10 元（原 2025/2026 年预测 值为 4.23/4.87 元）。由于离岛免税销售恢复节奏偏慢、客流复苏不及预期，我们下 调了收入增速预期，同时调整了毛利率假设并上调了费用率假设。我们采用 DCF 绝 对估值法，给予公司目标价 67.24 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 1）政策落地不及预期风险；2）国际航线恢复节奏放缓；3）市内免税店盈利周期拉 长；4）客单价提升可持续性不足；5）费用管控不达预期影响利润修复节奏。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 67,540 | 56,474 | 61,865 | 67,993 | 74,120 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.1% | -16.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | | 营业利润(百万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a closing price of 31.65 CNY as of July 10, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company has entered a pivotal point in its stamping customer structure, with the electroplating business catalyzing new growth. The goal is for the new energy business to account for 25% and 60% of total revenue by 2025 and 2030, respectively [1][3]. - The company has a strong foothold in the automotive stamping parts sector, expanding its customer base and national production capacity, which is expected to drive growth [2][3]. - The acquisition of the electroplating business has created a second growth curve, with the company becoming a key supplier in the precision electroplating sector, particularly in the power semiconductor field [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report focuses on the company, which has over 30 years of experience in the automotive parts industry, forming four main business segments: stamping parts, assembly parts, precision electroplating, and molds. The company has established solid partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [10][12]. 2. Stamping Parts and Electroplating Business - The company is a leading supplier of automotive stamping parts, leveraging its long-standing relationship with SAIC Group and expanding into new energy vehicle manufacturers like Tesla and Li Auto [20][32]. - The precision electroplating business, acquired in 2022, has significantly contributed to revenue and profit, with a projected contribution of 1.8 billion CNY in revenue and 1.1 billion CNY in net profit for 2024 [29][45]. 3. Industry Overview - The automotive stamping parts market is projected to reach approximately 270 billion CNY by 2025, with a CAGR of 2.6% from 2025 to 2030. The industry is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape [47][63]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for lightweight components in the automotive sector, driven by the rise of new energy vehicles, which is expected to enhance the market for stamping parts [46][63]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 35.2 billion CNY, 44.5 billion CNY, and 52.8 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits projected at 5.0 billion CNY, 6.5 billion CNY, and 8.0 billion CNY [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong management capabilities and cost control, which are expected to lead to sustained improvements in net profit margins [2][39].

AIoT 芯片需求增长，25H1 营收同比高增 瑞芯微(603893) ——瑞芯微中报业绩预告点评 [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | 股东权益（百万元） | 3,762 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.94 | | 市净率（现价） | 16.6 | | 净负债率 | -69.90% | [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 -20% 27% 74% 121% 168% 215% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 瑞芯微 上证指数 | [table_Authors] 舒迪(分析师) | 陈豪杰(分析师) | 华晋书(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 182.91 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880521070002 | S0880524080009 | S0880525040054 | | | 本报告导读： 公司 25H1 业绩同 ...