当前DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）与NAND（闪存）库存仅够维持约4周，价格持续上涨已成定 局……2026年马年春节刚过，全球存储巨头SK海力士的最新发声，让全球存储市场的涨价潮再度升 温。2月24日，A股存储概念股持续走高，北京君正、太极实业、香农芯创等个股涨幅均超过5%。 在AI及算力发展浪潮的驱动下，自2025年第三季度起，全球存储市场迎来涨价行情。业内人士普遍预 计，全球存储芯片涨价将持续2026年一整年。 在产业高景气背景下，中国存储产业正加速突围，长江存储、长鑫科技等企业在技术、产能上持续突 破，国产模组厂商同步发力，中国存储力量的崛起正成为影响全球存储格局、决定行业发展走向的"胜 负手"。 事实上，自2025年第二季度起，全球存储行业景气度开始触底反弹，闪迪打响NAND涨价第一枪后，三 星、美光及长江存储、兆易创新等存储厂商（包括NAND、DRAM）纷纷跟进上调价格。 巨头最新发声：库存仅剩约4周 2月20日，SK海力士举行虚拟投资者会议，向高盛透露了最新的数据及对产业趋势的研判。 SK海力士表示，当前公司DRAM及NAND整体库存仅剩约4周，处于历史极低水平，从谷歌、微软等云 厂商，到Open ...

马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 指数成分股中，伟志控股大涨13.79%，兆易创新（603986）涨11.91%，普达特科技涨10.91%，天岳先 进、澜起科技、华虹半导体等跟涨。 对于近期半导体板块走强的原因，中信建投（601066）证券机械首席分析师许光坦认为，主要受多重利 好共振推动：一方面，AI算力需求持续升温，全球半导体景气周期开启，带动设备及零部件需求增 长；另一方面，国内设备及零部件企业持续取得突破，市场对半导体国产化率提升的产能释放预期逐渐 升温。此外，部分龙头企业在高端零部件领域的量产进展也进一步提振了市场信心。 展望2026年，随着国内产业政策持续发力，叠加"反内卷"相关举措有望推动制造业盈利水平修复，行业 景气度或逐步回升，进而带动上游零部件设备整体需求稳步改善。在半导体设备、上游零部件国产化率 持续提升并加速推进的驱动下，半导体设备零部件板块有望迎来业绩与估值双升的"戴维斯双击"。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场 ...

从行业板块方面看，马年春节以来，港股市场行业板块普遍上涨，电讯业、能源业、工业领涨市场，分 别累计上涨2.62%、2.48%、2.43%，原材料业累计涨幅超1%，资讯科技业、金融业、非必需性消费等 小幅上涨；而必需性消费、综合企业、医疗保健业下跌。 个股方面，整个港股市场马年春节以来近半数股票上涨，大昌微线集团累计涨幅超100%，玖源集团、 普天通信集团、亚博科技控股等累计涨幅超50%，中国信息科技、迅策、智谱等累计涨幅超20%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场有所波动，但在估值优势、产业趋势与资金流向等多 重积极因素共振下，港股春季行情有望渐次展开。 指数震荡分化 马年春节开市以来（2月20日至2月24日）的三个交易日，港股市场主要股指震荡，恒生指数累计下跌 0.43%，恒生中国企业指数累计下跌0.69%，恒生科技指数累计下跌1.80%。但从2026年1月以来，港股 三大指数仅恒生科技指数累计下跌超4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global storage market is experiencing a price surge due to extremely low inventory levels of DRAM and NAND, with major players like SK Hynix predicting that this trend will continue throughout 2026 driven by AI and computing demands [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Current inventory levels for DRAM and NAND are approximately 4 weeks, marking a historical low, leading to increased price expectations as demand from various sectors remains unmet [3]. - SK Hynix reported record revenues and profits for the fiscal year 2025, with operating income reaching 97.15 trillion KRW and a profit margin of 49%, reflecting the ongoing price increases and strong demand in the storage market [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The imbalance in supply and demand is attributed to the explosive demand for storage driven by AI applications and slow expansion of cleanroom space necessary for chip manufacturing, limiting supply growth [5]. - Major price increases have been observed, with SK Hynix raising prices for high-end products by 15% to 20% and standard DRAM prices increasing by 10% to 15% in late 2025 [5]. Group 3: Chinese Storage Industry - The rise of the Chinese storage industry is seen as a potential game-changer in the global supply chain, with companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies and ChangXin Memory Technologies leading the charge [7]. - Chinese manufacturers are increasingly being considered by PC makers like HP and Dell for storage solutions, indicating a shift from being an alternative option to a viable choice in the global market [7]. - Predictions suggest that Chinese storage capacity will gradually be released between the second half of 2026 and 2027, potentially alleviating global supply constraints and stabilizing prices [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current storage cycle's intensity and duration may surpass previous cycles, driven by the ongoing demand from AI and high-performance computing [6]. - Long-term contracts are being discussed between suppliers and major clients to secure future supply and pricing, indicating a strategic shift in the industry [3].

Market Performance - Historically, A-shares perform well in the two weeks leading up to the Two Sessions and slightly worse during the sessions, with an increased probability of rising post-sessions [2][9] - The small-cap style dominates both before and after the Two Sessions, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices benefiting from expectations of stable growth policies and industrial policies [2][11] - After the Two Sessions, cyclical sectors are expected to perform better, with higher average returns [2][11] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 23,969 billion yuan last week, with a future injection of 22,524 billion yuan in reverse repos and 3,000 billion yuan in MLF [2][18] - Money market rates are declining, with the R007 and DR007 rates down by 18.4 basis points and 14.0 basis points respectively [2][18] Fund Supply and Demand - In the last week, there was a slight net outflow of funds in the secondary market, with a net sell-off of 830.2 billion yuan in financing [3][23] - The issuance of public funds increased by 340.3 billion units, while ETF saw a net outflow of 482.5 billion yuan [3][23] Market Sentiment - Financing trading activity weakened, with a decrease in the proportion of financing transactions in A-share turnover to 8.6% [3][28] - The VIX index fell, indicating improved risk appetite in overseas markets [3][33] Industry Preferences - The only sectors with net inflows were media and building materials, while significant outflows were seen in sectors like electronics and power equipment [3][35] - The highest net inflow was in the media sector (+15.1 billion yuan), while the largest net outflow was in power equipment (-97.3 billion yuan) [3][36] Industry Performance Post-Two Sessions - Post-Two Sessions, industries such as real estate, building materials, and consumer electronics are expected to see higher probabilities of price increases as stable growth policies are confirmed [2][15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the super cycle in the storage, electronic fabric, and copper foil industries driven by explosive growth in AI computing power and supply-side constraints, with price increases expected to continue until 2027, particularly for electronic fabrics and copper foils [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Super Cycle Definition**: A super cycle refers to a prolonged economic cycle characterized by strong demand and supply constraints, leading to sustained price increases [2]. - **Storage Industry Dynamics**: The super cycle in the storage industry is primarily driven by AI demand for storage, particularly in HBM, DRAM, and NAND Flash, with a projected price increase lasting at least one to one and a half years due to supply constraints [1][9]. - **DRAM Market Growth**: The DRAM market has seen a tenfold growth over the past three years, with an expected threefold expansion potential in the coming years, driven by demand for HBM in training and inference cards [10]. - **NAND Flash Demand**: The NAND Flash market is also expected to grow robustly due to innovative demand and supply challenges, with significant increases in procurement from CSP manufacturers [12]. - **Electronic Fabric Market**: The electronic fabric market is experiencing a shortage due to tight yarn supply and production shifts, leading to accelerated price increases, with expectations that the current price hikes will exceed previous cycles [16]. - **Copper Foil Market**: High-end copper foil, particularly HVLP copper foil, is benefiting from AI demand, with processing fees significantly increased, reflecting supply-demand changes [1][24]. Supply and Demand Characteristics - **Storage Chips**: Transitioning from fourth to fifth generation storage chips involves a construction cycle of 2-3 years, with delivery cycles extending to about three years [3]. - **Electronic Fabric Supply**: The production cycle for electronic fabric has extended due to machine order delays, with only a few suppliers like Toyota dominating the market [3][19]. - **Copper Foil Supply Constraints**: The copper foil industry faces high barriers to entry, making rapid supply expansion difficult, with significant demand for HVRP copper foil expected to continue [25][26]. Price Trends and Market Impact - **Price Increases**: Prices for storage chips and electronic fabrics are expected to rise significantly, with historical price points being approached again [7][16]. - **Market Dynamics**: The transition of production capacity from low-end to high-end products is expected to drive price increases across the board, with low-end products leading the way [7]. Future Outlook - **Sustained Industry Growth**: The overall industry outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in the electronic fabric and copper foil sectors until at least 2027 [6][28]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies in the copper foil sector, particularly those transitioning to high-end products, are expected to see significant performance improvements, with market valuations projected to rise [23][28]. Additional Insights - **Niche Storage Products**: Niche storage products are expected to see price increases ahead of mainstream products, with specific companies identified as having strong performance potential [15]. - **Technological Advancements**: The copper foil industry is transitioning towards high-tech products, with significant investment opportunities anticipated in the coming years [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the storage, electronic fabric, and copper foil industries, along with future expectations and investment opportunities.

假期海外存储、半导体设备再创新高，继续看好存储产业 链机会 20260223 摘要 AI 和数据中心驱动存储需求激增，北美和国内主要 CAPEX 厂商在 2026 年的资本开支同比增长超过 60%，远超预期，主要用于采购存储 设备，NAND 闪存在数据中心市场占比到 2027 年预计将达到 10%左右。 存储供给方面，2026 年三星、海力士、美光等厂商扩产有限，新增产 能主要集中在 2027 年下半年，难以满足快速增长的需求。HBM 生产挤 占部分 DRAM 产能，进一步限制 DRAM 供应。 存储产品价格持续上涨，一季度 NAND 闪存价格预计上涨 50%- 60%，DRAM 价格预计上涨 90%以上。低库存和真实需求驱动，二季 度价格可能超预期，卖方市场厂商定价权较强。 海外方面，美光、海力士等公司估值较低，约为六七倍市盈率，考虑到 AI 技术对行业周期性的减弱及拉动作用，这些公司的估值有望提高至 15 倍左右。 国内方面，兆易创新、普冉半导体等芯片设计公司受益于 AI 产能挤占导 致 Nor Flash、利基型 DRAM 及 SLC NAND 等产品价格上涨，去年四 季度业绩已现拐点，今年业绩有望加速 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a positive start to the Year of the Horse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.36% on February 24 [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.82%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 2.13% on the same day [2] - As of February 24, there were 8 A+H listed companies experiencing an AH price inversion, where H-share prices exceeded A-share prices, representing approximately 4.6% of the total 174 A+H listed companies [3] Group 2 - The companies with AH price inversion include leading firms across various sectors such as new energy, banking, innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, home appliances, mining, and machinery [4] - The phenomenon of AH price inversion is relatively rare, with no companies experiencing it a year ago on February 24, 2025 [2][4] - The average AH premium rate is typically around 125%, considering the 20% dividend tax on H-shares and the tax exemption for A-shares held for over a year [5] Group 3 - On February 24, the trading volume of A-shares for China Merchants Bank was 75.47 million shares, which is 7.7 times that of its H-shares at 9.8 million shares [5] - The market capitalization of China Merchants Bank is approximately 1.005 trillion yuan, with an AH premium rate of 0.89, indicating an 11% discount of A-shares relative to H-shares [5] - CATL, another leading company, saw its A-shares decline by 0.93% while H-shares fell by 3.13%, with A-share trading volume being 12.5 times that of H-shares [6] Group 4 - The AH premium index closed at 116.99 on February 24, indicating that A-shares are trading at a premium to H-shares, and this index has been on a downward trend since April 9, 2025 [11] - The index has dropped from a high of 144.85 to a low of 113.56, marking an eight-year low [11] - Analysts suggest that the recent trend of foreign capital favoring Hong Kong stocks may be influenced by the appreciation of the yuan, which could lead to a convergence of AH premiums [13] Group 5 - Morgan Stanley highlighted investment opportunities in sectors such as technology and cyclical recovery, particularly in leading companies within these fields [13] - Tianfeng Securities expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a focus on value-oriented investments while maintaining growth as a secondary consideration [13]

Core Viewpoint - The A to H listing model for manufacturing A-share companies is becoming a significant pathway for expanding financing channels and achieving global layout, driven by the optimization of overseas listing filing management, the recovery of the Hong Kong stock market, and the release of domestic companies' overseas financing needs [1][2]. Group 1: Overview of H-share Filing Situation in 2025 - In 2025, over 160 A-share listed companies disclosed plans for listing in Hong Kong, with more than 90 formally submitting applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. - By the end of 2025, 33 A-share companies received filing approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), with 19 successfully achieving A+H listings, a significant increase from 3 in 2024 [2]. - The total fundraising amount for the 19 companies that successfully listed in Hong Kong reached approximately 139.99 billion HKD, with CATL alone raising 35.66 billion HKD, indicating strong recognition from overseas capital markets for high-quality domestic manufacturing enterprises [2]. Group 2: Filing Duration and Characteristics - The average filing duration for companies directly applying for Hong Kong listings in 2025 was approximately 190 days, while manufacturing A-share companies had an average duration of about 141 days, which is lower than the overall average [3]. - High-end advanced manufacturing companies experienced longer filing durations due to special regulatory matters involving core technologies and controlled items [3]. Group 3: Legal Issues and Compliance Suggestions - The filing review for A to H companies in the manufacturing sector focuses on universal legal issues such as cross-border compliance and market access, which all manufacturing companies must address [6][7]. - Specific legal concerns for high-end advanced manufacturing companies include core technology transfer and management of controlled items, necessitating tailored compliance strategies [6][16]. Group 4: Common Legal Issues in Filing Review - Key areas of regulatory focus include compliance with overseas investment and foreign exchange registration, ensuring that companies have fulfilled necessary procedures and that their funding sources are legal [8][9]. - Companies must also ensure that their business scope does not involve industries restricted or prohibited for foreign investment, as outlined in the negative list [10][11]. Group 5: Data Security and User Information Protection - With the implementation of laws regarding cybersecurity and data protection, companies involved in information content products must ensure compliance with user data collection, storage, and security management [13][14]. - The review process emphasizes the need for companies to have robust data security management systems and to comply with regulations regarding data transfer, especially if it involves cross-border data [15]. Group 6: Differentiated Regulatory Focus for High-end Advanced Manufacturing - High-end advanced manufacturing companies face unique regulatory scrutiny regarding core technology protection, management of dual-use items, and compliance with technology export regulations [16][17]. - Companies must establish comprehensive systems to protect core technologies and ensure compliance with relevant export control laws to mitigate risks associated with technology leakage and unauthorized transfers [16][17].

一般在 A 股春节休市期间，外围走势都偏好，但一开市，就开始砸盘，港股也是如此，今天跌 1.82％ ，A 股整体还好，顶住了压力，但跳空缺口也是较大隐忧。 梳理一下港股春节的表现：首先炒了机器人，如越疆(02432)大涨了近 24％ ，不过，两天就打回了原 形。原因是春晚机器人虽然比上一次进步了很多，但更多的是带表演性质，都是按照固定的程序在走， 而离真正的进入 C 端，还差老远，大脑不解决，始终还无法大规模进入家庭。这需要时间，因此热闹 之后回归理性，砸盘就变成必然。再是大模型的智谱(02513)，其新一代旗舰模型 GLM-5 确实给力，极 大拉小了和 Claude Opus 4.6 之间的距离，还有一个MINIMAX-WP(00100)：MiniMax M2.5 以 2.45 万亿 token 空降榜首。这都是硬实力，在调整一天后今天继续上涨。 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁决，美国政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）所实施的关税措施， 缺乏明确法律授权。宣布终止一系列关税措施。美国政府不可能就这样暂停，最新应对是援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条，特朗普 21 日宣布对输美商品征收的 " ...