Core Insights - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with the current low valuation presenting potential investment opportunities. The industry is expected to recover from its profitability bottom due to measures like "anti-involution" and the rapid growth of new materials driven by downstream demand [2][3][8]. Industry Overview - The chemical industry experienced a low point in 2025, with the PPI for industrial products, production materials, and chemical industries showing negative year-on-year growth for 38 consecutive months, marking the second-longest period of negative growth in history [16]. - As of the end of 2025, 30 out of 111 tracked chemical products had prices in the bottom 10% of their historical range, indicating significant pricing pressure [18]. Supply Dynamics - The construction of new projects in the chemical sector has seen a negative year-on-year growth rate, signaling that the current round of capacity expansion is nearing its end. By Q3 2025, the total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 14,628.58 billion RMB, a 15.56% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate of ongoing projects turned negative for the first time in nearly four years [16][18]. Demand Trends - Domestic demand in the real estate sector is under pressure, but sectors like automotive and chemical fibers are showing positive growth. The demand for related products is expected to continue improving, supported by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and the rapid development of downstream industries such as new energy and AI [16][18]. Cost Factors - The global oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with international oil prices projected to stabilize within a range of 50-70 USD per barrel. This could lead to a gradual recovery in oil prices, although geopolitical events may introduce volatility [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the SW basic chemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 29.45, placing it at the 41.85% percentile since 2002, indicating a low valuation environment. The oil and petrochemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 14.08, at the 12.49% percentile [16][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional chemical leaders that are expanding into new materials, as they are expected to see both performance and valuation improvements. Recommended companies include WanHua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [2][3][8]. - Attention is also drawn to sub-industries benefiting from "anti-involution" measures, such as refining, polyester, and organic silicon, where price levels are low and supply dynamics are improving [2][3][8].

2026 年 01 月 28 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：55 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-23 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 55 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

Group 1 - The global chemical industry is transitioning from "overcapacity" to "high-quality supply" by 2026, driven by national growth policies, marginal recovery in overseas demand, and the initiation of a restocking cycle, leading to a stabilization and rebound in the prices of basic chemicals and a significant improvement in industry profit expectations [1][3]. - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has become a core tool for investors to capitalize on the petrochemical industry's recovery, with the index it tracks rising by 15.10% in the past month and 51.39% over the past year as of January 26, 2026 [1][5]. - The ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with over 180 million yuan in net inflows in the past five days and over 270 million yuan in the past twenty days [1][5]. Group 2 - The "High-Quality Development" policy framework has been established, emphasizing the control of new refining capacities and the scientific regulation of ethylene and paraxylene production, marking a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality and efficiency improvements [3][4]. - A global restocking cycle has commenced, with widespread price increases for chemical products, including a 550 yuan/ton increase for butadiene and a 100 yuan/ton increase for bisphenol A, alongside sulfur prices reaching near ten-year highs [3][4]. - Major international companies like BASF and Dow have also raised prices for MDI/TDI, indicating a strong performance in the polyurethane market, supported by increased global oil demand projected at 950,000 barrels per day for 2026 [4][5]. Group 3 - Chemical companies are expected to report positive earnings, with Salt Lake Co. forecasting a net profit of 8.29 to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65%, and other companies like Juhua Co. and Cangge Mining also projecting significant profit increases [5][6]. - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with top holdings including major companies like Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum, covering over 56% of the index, thus providing a balanced exposure to both energy security and growth in new materials [5][6]. - The ETF has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.20% per year, making it an ideal tool for participating in the current economic upturn in the chemical sector [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Factors such as supply and demand changes, geopolitical situations, and seasonal impacts all have an influence on the market. For example, the supply of crude oil has increased, which eases the market's concerns about shortages, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still bring uncertainties; the fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the situation in Iran and supply changes; the polyester market is affected by device maintenance and downstream demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. The WTI March contract closed down $0.44 to $60.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The Brent March contract closed down $0.29 to $65.59 per barrel, a decline of 0.44%. The SC2603 closed at 450.1 yuan per barrel, down 0.8 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.18%. The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan have increased supply, easing concerns about shortages. However, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have also increased concerns about Iranian oil production. The oil price is in a chaotic state and will continue to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.81% to 2791 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 3.49% to 3206 yuan per ton. The price increase of FU was significantly affected by the escalation of the situation in Iran. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is strong due to the recovery of downstream demand, but the expected increase in the volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage vessels arriving in Singapore in January may bring inventory accumulation pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors. The absolute prices of FU and LU are greatly affected by geopolitical situations and are recommended to be observed for the time being [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.39% to 3279 yuan per ton. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and some local refineries have stopped production in the short - term, tightening supply. The demand is in the off - season, and cold snaps and snowfall have hindered terminal demand. The market still has expectations of potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the far - month, but the impact on the recent market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5438 yuan per ton, down 0.18%; EG2605 closed at 3994 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7522 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta and Zhejiang regions are weak, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. Multiple polyester and ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance or restart operations. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the prices of PX and TA will oscillate at a high level, and the price of ethylene glycol will show an oscillatory trend [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 85 yuan per ton to 16230 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 13085 yuan per ton, while the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 335 yuan per ton to 13265 yuan per ton. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased, while the general trade inventory in Qingdao increased. Overseas rubber production is coming to an end, and the port inventory is accumulating. The rubber market has limited contradictions, and the rubber price is expected to remain oscillatory. The supply and demand of butadiene are temporarily tight, and the price of butadiene rubber is expected to follow the cost [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2300 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level oscillation, and the MTO operating load in East China has weakened. The overall demand is weak, and the port still has pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6530 - 6650 yuan per ton. The supply has increased due to the resumption of production of some upstream plants, while the downstream demand will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually start to accumulate inventory, but the price will be affected by cost and geopolitical risks in the short - term and will show a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the market prices of PVC in East China, North China, and South China all increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the export policy will have different impacts in the short - and long - term. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, purified terephthalic acid, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash on January 26 and January 23, 2026 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal in Kazakhstan and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield have increased the supply of crude oil, easing market concerns about shortages. At the same time, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have increased concerns about Iranian oil production [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene from 2022 to 2026 [11][12][13][15][17][19][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips from 2022 to 2026 [23][24][27][28][29]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple products such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, LLDPE, PP, and natural rubber from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][37][39][41][43]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety for multiple products such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber from 2022 to 2026 [46][48][49][53]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit, processing fee, and cash - flow charts for multiple products such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2026 [55][56]. 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Energy and Chemical Research Director Du Bingqin, Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst Di Yilin, and Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [60][61][62][64].

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 52, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [2][10] - Key themes identified include chemicals, banking, and consumer sectors, each expected to perform well due to specific macroeconomic factors and policy support [6][10] Group 1: Chemicals Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, coupled with the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to boost demand for chemical products [6] - The industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical turning point in 2026, with expectations for valuation recovery and performance growth, termed as a "Davis Double Play" [6] - Relevant stocks in this sector include Satellite Chemical (002648) and Yuntianhua (600096) [6] Group 2: Banking Sector - Banking stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [6] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6] - Key banking stocks mentioned include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The macro policy for 2026 focuses on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, leading to positive market expectations [6] - The consumer market is undergoing significant changes, showcasing three new trends: "emotional value" in luxury goods, "extreme quality-price ratio" in discount retail, and "efficiency innovation" in AI e-commerce [6] - Notable consumer stocks include Yonghui Superstores (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on January 26, with the chemical sub-index declining. The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) closed down 0.46%, with a trading volume of 82.02 million yuan [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF has seen continuous capital inflow over the past 18 trading days, with a net inflow of 744 million yuan in the last 30 trading days, reaching a new high of 1.408 billion yuan as of January 23, 2026 [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the chemical sub-index, with over 93% of its holdings in three major industries: basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and power equipment, including leading companies and quality SMEs across various segments [1] Group 2 - A cold wave began affecting the U.S. on January 23, causing snowfall in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, with extreme weather expected to impact two-thirds of the country, potentially leading to widespread power outages [2] - The U.S. has a high capacity share of MDI/TDI, and the extreme weather may significantly affect supply, as U.S. MDI/TDI prices are notably higher, with relatively high operating rates [2] - The chemical industry is entering a turning point of supply-demand improvement and high-end transformation, with structural differentiation expected to continue in 2026, particularly in oil chemicals and polyester sectors [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周一油价震荡回落，其中WTI 3月合约收盘下跌0.44美元至60.63美元/桶，跌幅0.72%。布伦特3月合约收 盘下跌0.29美元至65.59美元/桶，跌幅0.44%。SC2603以450.1元/桶收盘，下跌0.8元/桶，跌幅为0.18%。 随着一个承担了哈萨克斯坦大部分原油出口的关键黑海码头恢复运行，一度导致欧洲市场供应紧张的哈 萨克斯坦原油出口中断情况有所缓解。与此同时，该国巨型的Tengiz油田也将于近期重新启动产出。在 投资者评估席卷美国广大地区的冬季风暴带来的影响之际，新增供应缓解了市场对短缺的担忧。包括埃 克森美孚公司的Baytown大型炼油厂在内的多家工厂在暴风雪来临前削减了运营。1月26日，中东紧张 局势仍在持续，美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军力量引发外界猜测他可能兑现攻击伊朗政权的威 胁，并加剧了对该国原油产出的担忧。特朗普表示，鉴于韩国方面尚未通过该项贸易协议，他已决定将 对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从15%上调至 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, particularly due to rising oil prices and improving product demand [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the continuous rise in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions, is expected to support the recovery of the refining sector [3][5]. - PTA and polyester filament prices are on the rise, with PTA industry measures contributing to improved market conditions [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth of bio-jet fuel (SAF) as a renewable energy source, recommending attention to companies like Zhuoyue New Energy [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Product Tracking - Crude oil prices have increased, with WTI at $61.29 per barrel and Brent at $66.23 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 3.11% and 3.16% respectively [3]. - PTA prices have risen to 5140 CNY per ton, with polyester filament prices also increasing, indicating a recovery in the market [4][10]. 2. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Key products such as nicotinamide (up 8.96%), acetonitrile (up 8.72%), and styrene (up 7.96%) have shown significant price increases, while industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate and epoxy propane have seen declines [10]. - The report notes that the price of glyphosate has risen to 23296 CNY per ton, with a weekly increase of 200 CNY per ton [15]. 3. Refining Sector - The refining sector is expected to benefit from stable oil prices and increased demand, with companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Satellite Chemical recommended for investment [5]. 4. Agricultural Chemicals - The prices of ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride have increased, with ammonium phosphate priced at 3821 CNY per ton [17][20]. 5. Fluorochemicals - Prices for refrigerants R22 and R125 have risen, supported by supply constraints and environmental regulations [22][24].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Steel Industry - Iron ore supply is expected to become more relaxed, with Australian shipments projected to reach a historical high of 960 million tons in 2026, an increase of 24 million tons year-on-year. Brazilian shipments are also expected to rise by approximately 10 million tons. This supply increase supports the cost reduction logic for steel companies, leading to further profit recovery in the steel industry [2][1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector shows significant signs of valuation recovery, with silver leading the charge. Industrial metals are in the early stages of recovery, while basic and energy metals are at the initial stage of bottom reversal. Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to copper and aluminum [3][4]. Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber sector is experiencing price increases for electronic fabrics due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The unit profit forecast for China Jushi's electronic fabric is expected to rise from 0.7 yuan in 2025 to 1.3 yuan in 2026, potentially reaching 1.5 yuan. This could lead to an annual performance of 4.5 to 5 billion yuan for China Jushi [5][1]. Oil Shipping Sector - The oil shipping sector has seen a significant year-on-year increase in LCC freight rates, now exceeding $110,000, a rise of 87%. This is driven by increased production from South American deep-sea oil fields, OPEC's production policies, and a rebound in China's crude oil imports. The sector is entering a strong prosperity phase [8][1]. Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is witnessing a significant repair in the supply-demand balance. In 2026 and 2027, attention should be paid to sub-industries with high operating rates and limited new capacity, such as chlor-alkali, organic silicon, and PTA polyester filament. Major polyester filament manufacturers have initiated production cuts to alleviate inventory pressure [10][1]. Additional Insights Soda Ash Market - The soda ash market currently faces low price expectations due to overproduction, but demand is better than anticipated. The price has dropped below 1,100 yuan, indicating an oversold condition. Companies like Boyan Chemical are recommended due to their cost advantages and strong growth potential [11][1]. Dual Carbon Policy Impact - The dual carbon policy significantly impacts the chemical industry, with local governments tightening energy consumption limits for new projects. This affects high-energy-consuming sectors like chlor-alkali and organic silicon. Companies benefiting from this policy include Jiahua Energy and Junzheng Group [12][1]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is viewed positively under the backdrop of resource inflation, with a high probability of a bottom reversal by the end of 2026. Key recommendations include Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [19][1]. Price Trends in Coal - As of last week, thermal coal prices have stabilized around 695 yuan, while coking coal prices have increased by 150 yuan to 1,770 yuan. The prices are expected to remain stable due to winter stocking demands [20][1]. Import Trends - In 2025, China’s coal imports fell to 490 million tons, a nearly 10% decrease. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued challenges in increasing imports due to rising domestic costs and supply vulnerabilities from major exporting countries like Indonesia and Australia [21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations across various industries.

化工板块今日（1月26日）震荡盘整。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘两度冲高，场内价格涨幅一度达到1.32%，午后震荡走弱，最终平 盘报收。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）全天多数时间溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.6%，反映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，磷化工、钛白粉、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，云天化大涨3.56%，卫星化学、兴发集团双双涨超2%，钛能化学、东方盛虹、新 洋丰等多股涨超1%。 注：投资者在申购或赎回基金份额时，申购赎回代理券商可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取佣金，其中包含证券交易所、登记机构等收取的相关费用。化工ETF 不收取销售服务费。 化工ETF联接A申购费率为：100万元以下，0.8%；100万元（含）-200万元，0.5%；200万元（含）以上，每笔1000元。赎回费率为：7天以内，1.5%；7天 （含）-180天，0.5%；180天（含）-以上，0%。 值得注意的是，化工板块场内热门布局工具化工ETF（516020）近日吸金不断。交易所数据显示，截至上个交易日（1月23日），化工ETF（516020）近5个 交易日累计获资金净申购额超过11亿 ...