Group 1: Copper Market Overview - Shanghai copper futures have surpassed 88,300 CNY/ton, while LME copper prices have exceeded 11,000 USD/ton, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] - International forecasts predict a return to copper supply shortages over the next three years, contributing to rising prices and increased capital inflow into the copper market [1] - As of October 27, the net inflow of funds into copper futures reached 48.58 billion CNY, making it the second-largest commodity futures category after gold [1] Group 2: Codelco's Copper Premium - Codelco plans to raise its copper premium for the European market to 345 USD/ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has increased its copper production forecast for 2028-2030 by 30% to 1 million tons, expecting a compound annual growth rate of 38% in regular profits from 2025 to 2026 due to rising copper and cobalt prices [3] - Zijin Mining (02899) reported a copper production of 830,000 tons in the first three quarters, a 5.1% year-on-year increase, with future production expected to rise significantly from the completion of the Giant Dragon copper mine project [3] - Minmetals Resources (01208) has seen significant increases in copper production from its three major mines, with Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere showing year-on-year growth rates of 67%, 120%, and 19% respectively [3] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) holds a significant stake in First Quantum, which has proven copper resources of 35.5 million tons and is expected to resume production at the Panama copper mine in the second half of 2026, potentially enhancing Jiangxi Copper's profits [4]

Core Insights - Copper prices are nearing record highs due to optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal and disruptions in major mining operations [1][2] - The demand for copper is projected to increase significantly, with BHP Group estimating a 70% rise by 2050 [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange increased by 1.2% to $11,094 per ton, approaching the record set in May 2024 [2] - The price of copper has surged by 25% this year, recovering from a previous decline linked to trade tensions initiated by former President Trump's policies [2] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Recent disruptions, including flooding at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula complex, a rock blast at Codelco's mine in Chile, and a mudslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, have contributed to rising copper prices [3] - These supply issues raise concerns about the ability of producers to meet the increasing demand for copper in electric vehicles and data centers [3] Group 3: Trade Relations Impact - Easing tensions between the US and China are expected to positively influence copper demand, as the US has retracted threats of high tariffs and China has paused plans to expand rare earth export controls [4] - The recent trade negotiations have led to fluctuations in copper prices, with a rally resuming as tensions eased [5] Group 4: Currency Influence - The decline of the US dollar, which has fallen approximately 8% since mid-January, has made commodities like copper more attractive to investors [6] - Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are anticipated to stimulate economic growth, benefiting raw material prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have long - term upward potential due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing demand from computing power construction, but short - term price increases may suppress downstream demand, leading to a recent trend of oscillatory upward movement [2] - Aluminum prices are likely to move upward in a high - level oscillation. Alumina prices are expected to decline, and suggestions include taking profit on long positions for aluminum and selling out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] - Zinc prices are predicted to oscillate and decline. It is recommended to conduct range trading [2] - Lead prices may rise after consolidation. It is advisable to go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range. It is suggested to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel prices are recommended for range trading [3] - Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation. Range trading is recommended [3] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and range trading or waiting and seeing is advised [3] - Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **10/20 - 10/26 Economic Data**: China's 10 - year LPR remained unchanged, with the five - year at 3.5% and the one - year at 3%. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and September's industrial added value increased 6.5% year - on - year. UK's September core CPI was 3.5% year - on - year, and the eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.2. US September core CPI rose 3% year - on - year, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase [11] - **China's Economic Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the overall economic operation maintained a stable and progressive trend. In September, social consumer goods retail sales increased 3% year - on - year [12][13] - **Policy and International Events**: The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's Fourth Plenary Session proposed the 15th Five - Year Plan, aiming to develop future industries. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [14][15] - **US and Eurozone Economic Data**: US September CPI grew 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI's month - on - month increase was 0.2%, the slowest in three months. The eurozone's October composite PMI reached a 1.5 - year high [16][18] - **10/27 - 11/2 Forecasted Economic Data**: Multiple economic data from China, the US, and the eurozone are to be released, including industrial enterprise profits, durable goods orders, and GDP data [20] 3.2 Metal Market Analysis Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose strongly this week, with a 3.68% increase in the weekly line. LME copper approached $11,000 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side disruptions continued, such as the shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine and ongoing strikes at Codelco in Chile. Downstream demand was restricted by price increases [2] - **Recommendation**: Hold a small number of long positions at low prices [2] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum prices showed a high - level upward oscillation, while alumina prices were expected to decline [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production capacity increased, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity decreased slightly. Downstream processing enterprise start - up rates declined [2] - **Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices for aluminum and sell out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices rose significantly last week but are expected to oscillate and decline [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Refined zinc production is expected to remain high in Q4, while terminal consumption is weak [2] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading [2] Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices reached a recent high and may rise after consolidation [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased, and primary lead consumption demand was strong [2] - **Recommendation**: Go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated and rose last week and are expected to oscillate within a range [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore prices are expected to remain firm, and refined nickel is in a surplus situation [3] - **Recommendation**: Hold short positions moderately at high prices [3] Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, while downstream consumption is weak [3] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading [3] Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory showed different trends, and the situation of each segment in the photovoltaic industry chain varied [3] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3] Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation, and downstream demand is good [3] - **Recommendation**: Wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3]

Group 1 - Copper stocks collectively rose, with notable increases: China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals up 10% to HKD 0.099, Luoyang Molybdenum up 7.28% to HKD 17.38, Jiangxi Copper up 4.29% to HKD 35.04, and Zijin Mining up 4.29% to HKD 35.04 [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur led to preliminary consensus on several key economic issues, indicating a potential easing of tariff pressures [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has no news on resuming production, contributing to tight copper supply and challenging smelting profit environments, with downstream consumption not meeting last year's levels during the traditional peak season [1] Group 2 - Downstream acceptance of copper prices is gradually improving, with better procurement reported this week [2] - Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for the European market to USD 345 per ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting market concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historically low levels, suggesting a buy adjustment [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Short Put [7] Core Views - The current high copper price is suppressing downstream consumption, and the short - term demand is difficult to improve, with the spot premium continuing in a low - level shock [1][2] - The rise in copper prices is mainly due to Trump's relatively mild stance on trade disputes and positive expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [7] - The consumption of refined copper rods and copper cables shows a "not prosperous in peak season" feature, and it is expected that the overall consumption will remain sluggish next week [5][6] Key Points from Each Section Market News and Important Data - From October 25, 2025, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper ranged from 84,955 yuan/ton to 86,420 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week. The SMM premium - discount quotation ranged from 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, with a downward oscillation [1] - LME inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 13.64 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 10.48 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 18.16 million tons, and bonded area inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 9.28 million tons. Comex inventory rose by 0.24 million tons to 34.8 million tons [1] Macro - economic Situation - In the week of October 25, 2025, the unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in September was 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1%, with a slight inflation rebound. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut in the October FOMC meeting was still as high as 98.3% [2] - The preliminary US manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8, all better than expected and higher than in September [2] - Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee boosted market expectations for future policies and infrastructure demand [2] Mining and Industry Dynamics - In the week of October 25, 2025, the spot market trading was light. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchasing willingness, and the processing fee weakened [2] - Angola's Tetelo Copper Mine is about to be put into production, with an annual capacity of about 25,000 tons. Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for Europe to a new high of $345/ton in 2026 [2] - China's copper concentrate imports in September decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to refinery maintenance in Zambia, unfavorable price ratios, and logistics and power constraints in Africa [2] Smelting and Import - In the week of October 25, 2025, the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline. The weekly average prices of bills of lading and warehouse receipts were $51.2/ton and $36.8/ton respectively, down $0.6 and $7.4 respectively from the previous week [3] - The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price dropped to $7.8/ton, and some transactions were at a discount. The current import loss is about 1,100 yuan/ton [3] - PPC has negotiated to postpone the shipment of some November long - term orders. The bonded inventory decreased to 9.28 million tons this week, and it is expected to rise slightly in the future [3] Scrap Copper - The copper price oscillated upward, with a cumulative increase of 500 yuan/ton. The price of Guangdong bright copper rose to 77,800 - 78,000 yuan/ton [4] - The sales sentiment index of recycled copper raw material holders rose to 2.36, and the purchasing sentiment of recycled copper rod enterprises also slightly increased to 2.43 [4] - The average weekly refined - scrap price difference was 3,343 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. The imported recycled copper raw material in September was 184,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. It is expected that the refined - scrap price difference will further widen to 3,500 yuan/ton [4] Consumption - In the week of October 25, 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a slight decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the previous week. The consumption of cables and enameled wires was mainly for rigid demand [5] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises slightly increased to 62.34%, but new orders generally slowed down. It is expected that the operating rate of copper cables will slightly drop to 61.89% next week, and overall consumption will be hard to improve [5][6] Strategy - For copper, the operation next week can be mainly based on buying hedges on dips in the range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton. If the copper price breaks through the previous high, enterprises with selling - hedge needs can appropriately conduct selling - hedge operations [7] - Arbitrage operations are suspended, and the option strategy is short put [7]

Core Insights - Chile has emerged as a wealthy nation in Latin America, characterized by high per capita income, diversified export structures, political stability, and a high corruption index, distinguishing it from its regional peers [1][3][5] Economic Structure and Policies - Chile's economy was heavily reliant on copper in the 1970s, leading to severe economic crises when copper prices fell, with inflation reaching 150% in 1972 [3][5] - The Pinochet regime initiated significant economic reforms in 1973, shifting from a state-controlled economy to a market-driven one, focusing on controlling inflation, liberalizing markets, and attracting foreign investment [3][5] - The government privatized many state-owned enterprises while retaining control over the state-owned copper company, Codelco, balancing stability with market-driven growth [5][7] Trade and International Relations - Chile has proactively established over 20 free trade agreements with more than 50 countries, enhancing its global trade connections, particularly with the Asia-Pacific region and China, which remains its largest trading partner [5][7] Diversification and Resource Management - Beyond copper, Chile has diversified its economy, becoming a leading exporter of wine, forestry products, and fisheries, while also developing lithium, silver, and gold mining sectors [7][12] - Chile holds 22% of the world's lithium reserves, indicating a strategic shift towards value-added resource management rather than mere extraction [7][12] Political Stability and Governance - Chile transitioned from military rule to a democratic government starting in 1983, with constitutional reforms completed by 2005, ensuring political stability and continuity in economic policies regardless of party changes [9][12] - The country ranks as the most transparent in Latin America, with a global corruption index position of 19, reflecting strong institutional governance [9][12] Social Policies and Challenges - Chile has made significant strides in social policy, including pension reforms, healthcare initiatives, and education improvements, with poverty rates dropping from 38.9% in 1990 to an estimated 12.7% by 2025 [12][15] - Despite these advancements, income inequality remains a critical issue, with the wealthiest 5% controlling half of the national wealth, posing risks to social stability [11][12] Future Outlook - Chile aims to become a leading exporter of green hydrogen by 2030, leveraging its geographical advantages for solar and wind energy production, positioning itself in the global energy transition [17][20] - The ongoing challenge for Chile is to maintain its economic growth while addressing structural dependencies on commodity markets and income disparity, which could undermine its stability [17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Report Summary - Market risk preference has increased due to the start of China-US economic and trade consultations. The market is concerned about the results of these consultations [9][11]. - The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [13]. - The meeting on the operation of key enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry in the third quarter emphasized preventing "involutionary" vicious competition and ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain [15]. 02 Multi-Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: - Social inventory has decreased slightly, and domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has recovered [7]. - China's September scrap copper imports increased, with a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase, mainly due to policy adjustments and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" season [27][28]. - In September, the output of copper strips ended a four - month decline, and the output of refined copper rods increased slightly [30][33]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [36]. - The new energy vehicle industry has maintained a strong momentum, with September production and sales increasing by 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year respectively [41][42]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the domestic copper spot premium has turned into a discount while the foreign premium - discount range has narrowed [44][47]. - **Bearish Factors**: - In September, China's copper ore imports decreased, with a 6.24% month - on - month decline. The supply from Chile dropped by over 30%. Global copper mine supply shows rigidity and vulnerability [17][19]. - The TC of copper concentrates remains at a low level, with the weekly index at - 40.7 dollars/dry ton as of October 17, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [20][21]. - In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to peak smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and a decrease in the incentive to increase production [23][24]. - The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area from January to September [38][39]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data**: - China's September copper ore imports were 2.5869 million tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. The supply from Chile dropped to 649,400 tons [19]. - As of October 17, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/dry ton, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [21]. - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and a 14.48% year - on - year increase. In October, production continued to decline [24]. - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase [28]. - **Demand - side Data**: - In September, the output of copper strips was 196,200 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase but an 8.7% year - on - year decrease [31]. - In September, the output of refined copper rods was 849,300 tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase, while the output of recycled copper rods was 170,800 tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [34]. - From January to September, real estate development enterprise housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year [39]. - In September, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6% [42]. - **Inventory Data**: - LME copper inventory was 11,240 tons last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 0.5% to 110,240 tons in the week of October 17, and COMEX copper inventory was 347,498 tons. As of October 23, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, down 5,700 tons from the 20th [45]. 04后市研判 - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49].

Group 1: Report Summary - China-US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market risk preference has increased [11] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, passing the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", which injected confidence into the market [14] - As of the week of October 17th, the standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/ton dry, down 0.13 dollars/ton dry from last week, and the copper concentrate processing fee continued to be under pressure [23] - The trading strategy is to wait for the opportunity to buy on dips when Shanghai copper is in a strong state but may face pressure at the 88,000 integer mark [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end still exists; social inventory has a small decline [8] - Domestic and foreign macro - sentiments have warmed up; China - US economic and trade consultations have started, and the market risk preference has increased [8][9] Bearish Factors - Downstream feedback shows weak consumption performance [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile dropped by more than 30% [20] Copper Concentrate TC - As of October 17th, the copper concentrate TC continued to be at a low level, and the long - term negotiation has entered the initial stage with large differences [23] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output is expected to continue to decline due to peak - season maintenance and other factors [25] Scrap Copper Imports - In September, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, mainly due to policy adjustments and market demand [29] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline but still lower than the same period last year [33] Copper Rod Production - In September, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [37] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 23rd, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 230 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [41] Copper Inventory - As of October 23rd, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the 20th. LME copper inventory decreased, while SHFE copper inventory increased [54] Copper Spot Premium - On October 23rd, the Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot premium turned to a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [58] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Real Estate Market - From January to September, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak [45][47] New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, showing a strong development momentum [50] Group 5: Market Outlook - Shanghai copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips and pay attention to the results of China - US consultations [60]

2025年10月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 3 | | 铜：情绪回暖，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：关注LME库存 | 7 | | 铅：库存持续减少，价格上涨 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：重心上移 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部震荡 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：具备向上弹性 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：升贴水疲弱，上方空间有限 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注仓单注册情况 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - aspect, before the release of key US CPI data, the trade situation is expected to ease, market sentiment has significantly improved, and the three major US stock indexes have generally risen. China will focus on building a modern industrial system, strengthening the real economy, achieving high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, and more [1]. - The copper market shows price increases, with the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract rising by 0.02% during the day and 1.56% at night, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk rising by 1.49% during the day [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Price and Price Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 85,400 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 86,730 with a night - session increase of 1.56%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,817 with a 1.49% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 192,281, a decrease of 9,114 from the previous day, and the open interest was 544,945, an increase of 12,219. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 24,037, a decrease of 8,185, and the open interest was 316,000, a decrease of 1,677 [1]. - **Inventory and Related Ratios**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 36,048, a decrease of 505. The LME copper inventory was 136,925, an increase of 75, and the注销仓单比 was 7.87%, an increase of 1.09% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME copper spread changed by - 5.19. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread was 10, a decrease of 20. The near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was - 40, unchanged [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Before the release of US CPI data, trade tensions may ease, and US stocks have risen. China has outlined key development directions such as building a modern industrial system [1]. - **Industry News**: In August, Peru's copper production decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 242,740 tons. Codelco plans to sell copper to European customers at a record - high premium of $325 per ton next year, a 39% increase from this year. In September, China's refined copper imports increased by 21.76% month - on - month and 7.44% year - on - year, etc. [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]