Group 1: Company Performance - In June, SF Express reported a revenue of 19.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.24%, with a business volume of 1.460 billion parcels, up 31.77%, but a single ticket revenue of 13.67 yuan, down 13.32% [1] - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 5.527 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels, up 19.34%, while single ticket revenue decreased by 6.69% to 2.10 yuan [1] - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.341 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, with a business volume of 2.184 billion parcels, up 11.14%, and a single ticket revenue of 1.99 yuan, down 1.00% [1] - Yunda Express had a revenue of 4.149 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a business volume of 2.173 billion parcels, up 7.41%, and a single ticket revenue of 1.91 yuan, down 4.50% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - In the first half of the year, YTO Express led the sector with a revenue of 34.2 billion yuan and a business volume of 14.86 billion parcels, while Shentong and Yunda's revenue and business volume were closely matched, with Yunda at 24.904 billion yuan and 12.726 billion parcels, and Shentong at 24.868 billion yuan and 12.347 billion parcels [2] - The industry is currently experiencing intensified low-price competition due to severe homogenization, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the situation in the second half of the year, promoting a new balance among regulation, competition, profitability, and quality [2] - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need for enhanced industry regulation and the establishment of market rules to combat "involution-style" competition, indicating a potential shift towards higher quality development in the express delivery sector [2]

Core Insights - The China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) is the world's first national-level exhibition focused on supply chains, showcasing various industries and emphasizing the core value of "linking the world and co-creating the future" [1] Group 1: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The Chain Expo serves as a high-end platform for global enterprises to collaborate, aiming to create a more open, efficient, and sustainable supply chain ecosystem [2] - YTO Express's chairman highlighted the Expo's role in enhancing connectivity among upstream and downstream enterprises, promoting a "win-win chain" [2] - Sinopec showcased its commitment to clean energy supply chains, focusing on natural gas, hydrogen, and other sustainable energy sources, and signed cooperation agreements with nearly 50 companies in the hydrogen sector [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Numerous companies presented cutting-edge technologies and smart solutions at the Expo, demonstrating innovation in the supply chain sector [3] - Ninebot showcased 10 models of short-distance transportation and service robots, emphasizing its full industry chain layout in smart mobility [3] - Inner Mongolia Jishuo Technology introduced a leading "rumen capsule" technology for real-time livestock health monitoring, breaking foreign monopolies and enhancing domestic livestock farming [3] Group 3: Infrastructure and Equipment - China Communications Construction Group displayed major infrastructure projects, including Asia's largest self-propelled dredging vessel, enhancing global industrial chain collaboration [4] Group 4: Cross-Industry Synergy - CITIC Group presented its comprehensive service capabilities across various sectors, aiming to be a "bridge linking the world" [5] - China Resources Group showcased its strategic layout in health, green agriculture, and clean energy, with over 270,000 supply chain enterprises participating in its procurement activities [5] Group 5: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - Tsingtao Brewery emphasized the importance of global supply chain connectivity, leveraging smart cold chain logistics for product freshness [6] - APP (Asia Pulp & Paper) highlighted its role in cross-border industrial chains and ecological innovation, aiming to deepen international cooperation in the supply chain [6] Group 6: Future Outlook - The Chain Expo has evolved into a significant platform for global industrial chain cooperation, promoting a shift from product competition to collaborative ecosystem building [7] - Participating companies believe the Expo enhances technological matchmaking and market expansion, contributing to the resilience and sustainability of global supply chains [7]

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express has signed the first comprehensive algorithm and labor rules agreement in the express delivery industry, focusing on six key issues including income security, rights protection, labor protection, care, skill enhancement, and negotiation mechanisms, benefiting over 290,000 workers across its nationwide network [1][3]. Group 1: Agreement and Compensation - The agreement explicitly guarantees the delivery fee standards for couriers, establishing a mechanism to ensure timely and full payment of wages by franchisees, with delivery fees not less than 25% of the average income per package from franchisees [3][5]. - This initiative aims to prevent the phenomenon of unrestrained reductions in delivery fees, promoting fair and reasonable compensation for couriers [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Context and Performance - The express delivery industry is currently experiencing intense competition, with a notable decline in average revenue per package across various companies, including a general drop of 8.2% in the first five months of 2025 [4]. - Despite the competitive landscape, the total express delivery volume in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion packages by 2025, with Jitu achieving a record high of approximately 7.39 billion packages in the second quarter of 2025, marking a 23.5% year-on-year increase [5][6][7]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Growth - Jitu Express has rapidly ascended to become one of the top five express delivery companies in China within three years, leveraging its low pricing strategy and partnerships with major e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo, Taobao, and JD.com [11][12][15]. - The company has seen significant growth in both the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets, with package volumes in Southeast Asia increasing by 65.9% year-on-year, indicating substantial untapped potential in both regions [6][7]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Following its strong performance, Jitu's stock price has surged over 40% in the past month, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows significant divergence in June data, with a focus on the industry's anti-involution process [3] - The express logistics market is expanding, supported by the national strategy to boost domestic demand, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in express delivery volume in June 2025 [5] - The performance of major express companies varies, with SF Express maintaining a business volume growth rate of over 30%, while other companies like YTO Express and Yunda Express show slower growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with total revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% [5][24] - Major express companies' performance in June: YTO Express (2.627 billion pieces, +19.34%), Yunda Express (2.173 billion pieces, +7.41%), SF Express (1.460 billion pieces, +31.77%) [4][28] - The market share for these companies is 15.6% for YTO, 12.9% for both Yunda and Shentong, and 8.7% for SF Express [4] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in passenger transport volume in June 2025 [52] - Major airlines are projected to improve their performance in Q2 2025 due to better supply-demand dynamics and lower oil prices [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment, with a focus on crude oil transportation [16] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 27.8% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [11][68] - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight increase in cargo volume but a decrease in container throughput [81] Road and Rail - In June 2025, road freight volume increased by 2.86% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 7.36% [45] - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with a slight increase in freight truck traffic [14] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [15]

Macro Insights - The recent increase in port activity suggests a high export sentiment ahead of tariff exemptions, with June exports supporting industrial production recovery [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for ten key industries, indicating a rise in "anti-involution" policies and price increases in the black and photovoltaic supply chains [2] Market Strategy - A-share market shows signs of strength, with a shift towards large-cap growth stocks. The "anti-involution" sectors are expected to see valuation recovery, supporting market momentum [3] - Mid-year financial data indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market. Focus on sectors like aviation equipment, wind power, and storage for potential growth [3] Fixed Income Insights - Investors exhibit a preference for equities over bonds, with expectations of stable economic production but weak demand. The bond market remains in a volatile state, with a focus on long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [7] - The recent survey indicates a strong interest in macro topics such as consumption policies and tariff negotiations, with a stable funding environment supporting bond market demand [7] Power Equipment and Renewable Energy - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to generate significant investment opportunities, with estimated project values between 53.5 billion and 95.4 billion [9] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, are anticipated to benefit from sustained order growth, potentially alleviating market concerns regarding order sustainability [9] Transportation and Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing growth driven by strong online consumption, with courier volumes showing significant year-on-year increases. The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to stabilize end-user pricing, benefiting major logistics companies [10] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a strong Q2 performance with revenues of USD 30.07 billion, exceeding guidance due to robust demand for advanced nodes. The company raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to approximately 30% [16] - The anticipated growth in AI demand is expected to drive revenue increases in advanced process technologies, with a positive outlook for TSMC's operational performance [16] Consumer Goods - The dairy industry is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a return to supply-demand balance by 2026. The recovery in raw milk prices is projected to positively impact upstream dairy farming profits [12] - Major players like Yili and Mengniu are expected to benefit from improved profit margins as the industry stabilizes and demand recovers [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Airline Industry**: White Cloud Airport, Hainan Airlines, China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Huaxia Airlines - **Shipping Industry**: Jinjiang Shipping, Antong Holdings - **Express Logistics Industry**: Jitu Express, SF Express, Shentong, Yunda, YTO Express - **Chemical Industry**: TDI market, high-speed resin market, various sub-industries - **Steel Industry**: General steel market performance and outlook - **Coal Industry**: Current market conditions and challenges Core Points and Arguments Airline Industry Performance - White Cloud Airport reported a Q2 profit of 450 million yuan, with net profit excluding non-recurring items at 290 million yuan, stable compared to Q1 [3] - Hainan Airlines expects a mid-term profit of 45 to 65 million yuan, despite a slight loss in Q2 [3] - China National Aviation anticipates a mid-term net profit increase of 78% to 90%, driven by fleet expansion and lower fuel prices [3] - Huaxia Airlines showed strong performance with a Q2 profit of approximately 160 million yuan, exceeding expectations [3] Shipping Industry Growth - Jinjiang Shipping's net profit for H1 is expected to be between 780 million to 810 million yuan, a significant increase of 146% to 155% due to rising demand in Southeast Asia [4] - Antong Holdings reported a net profit of 490 million to 540 million yuan, with a growth of 218% to 250% attributed to adjustments in shipping capacity [4] Express Logistics Sector Highlights - Jitu Express saw a 66% increase in package volume in Southeast Asia and a 14.7% increase in China, benefiting from strong TikTok e-commerce growth [5] - SF Express reported a 32% growth in business volume in June, with Shentong surpassing Yunda in revenue for the first time since 2020 [5] Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry’s operating rate fell to 71.9%, the lowest in history, with significant implications for older production facilities [8] - TDI market supply has contracted significantly, leading to rapid price increases, though sustainability of these price hikes is uncertain [12] - High-speed resin market demand remains strong, with companies like Shengjun Group expected to see a 50% increase in sales [13] Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry is experiencing the lowest production and inventory levels historically, with a potential recovery driven by government policies [15] - Major steel companies have seen a 20% increase in stock prices, with expectations of further profit growth in the coming months [15] Coal Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Coal companies reported mixed results, with some facing significant declines while others, like Baotai Long, turned losses into profits [18] - The coal market is currently in a destocking phase, with rising demand from electricity and chemical sectors [19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The launch of the official direct sales platform by Hanglv Zongheng APP aims to enhance ticket sales efficiency for airlines, potentially reducing reliance on OTA platforms [6] - The government’s redefinition of old equipment standards in the petrochemical industry may significantly impact sectors with high old capacity ratios [9] - The chemical sector is expected to face downward pressure in Q3, but certain products like refrigerants and high-speed resins are projected to perform well [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's supply-side reforms are expected to benefit major oil companies and private refining enterprises [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - The report reviews the regulatory policies and effects of irrational competition in the express delivery industry in 2021, aiming to forecast the potential impacts of the current "anti-involution" measures on the industry [2][7] - In 2021, under the "common prosperity" initiative, regulations focused on "protecting the legal rights of couriers," leading to a significant recovery in industry profitability and stock prices after major express delivery companies announced a network-wide fee increase [2][7] - Looking ahead to 2025, the report anticipates a decline in single-package profits and suggests that measures such as price guidance in grain-producing areas and curbing "punitive management" could effectively transition companies from price wars to value competition [2][7] Summary by Sections Regulatory Review of 2021 - The report highlights that in 2021, the express delivery industry faced severe irrational competition, prompting regulatory actions to stabilize the market and protect couriers' rights [21][30] - Major express companies raised their fees in September 2021, which helped restore profitability and stock performance [39] Outlook for 2025 - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is experiencing renewed price competition, with average package prices dropping to around 2 yuan, and some areas seeing prices fall below 1 yuan [40][48] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory measures to ensure fair competition and protect couriers' rights, suggesting that the industry is at a critical juncture [48] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and Jitu Express, highlighting potential improvements in profitability and valuation recovery opportunities [2][7][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing recognition and support for new employment groups such as delivery riders and ride-hailing drivers, emphasizing the need for improved services and working conditions in the rapidly evolving platform economy [8][12][19]. Group 1: Services and Facilities for Workers - The establishment of "Orange Rest Stations" by Didi aims to address the challenges faced by ride-hailing drivers, providing essential amenities such as rest areas, charging stations, and refreshments [10][12]. - The "Driver's Home" service by Huolala allows truck drivers to easily locate rest areas equipped with necessary facilities, enhancing their working conditions [11][12]. - The "Rider's Home" initiative by Meituan offers delivery riders a dedicated space for rest and support, including free refreshments and professional advice on insurance and benefits [14][15]. Group 2: Employment Statistics and Trends - The number of new employment form workers in China has reached 84 million, accounting for 21% of the total workforce, indicating the significance of this group in the economy [8][12]. - The article notes that there are approximately 38 million truck drivers and over 10 million ride-hailing drivers in the country, highlighting the scale of the workforce that requires better support [12]. Group 3: Professional Development and Support - Companies are increasingly focusing on the professional development of delivery personnel, with many employees receiving training and support to advance their careers [19][20]. - The implementation of a structured skill recognition system in the express delivery industry aims to enhance the professional status and career progression of delivery workers [19][20]. - The article mentions that over 23,800 new employees have obtained vocational skill certificates in the past two years, reflecting the industry's commitment to improving service quality and employee skills [20].

顺丰业务量增速持续领先，关注后续行业"反内卷"实质进展 [Table_Industry] 物流 2025 年 7 月 20 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 物流 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 快递行业月度专题：顺丰业务量增速持续领 先，关注后续行业"反内卷"实质进展 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：顺丰控股、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the express delivery sector [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in the first half of 2025, with a total business volume of 956.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%. The total revenue reached 7187.8 billion yuan, growing by 10.1% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report highlights that the demand for express delivery is driven by trends such as the increasing volume of small packages, reverse logistics, and the benefits from lower-tier markets. The growth rate of express delivery volume significantly outpaces the growth of retail sales and online retail sales [6]. - Price competition in the industry is intensifying due to the trend of smaller packages and ongoing price wars. However, the report suggests that the intensity of price competition may be controllable due to policy guidance aimed at promoting high-quality development [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In June 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 168.7 billion pieces, with revenue of 1263.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and 9.0%, respectively [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the express delivery revenue was 7187.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the business volume was 956.4 billion pieces, growing by 19.3% [3][5]. Company Performance - In June 2025, SF Express reported a revenue of 199.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The business volume was 14.60 billion pieces, growing by 31.8% year-on-year [4]. - For the first half of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 1091.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, and a business volume of 78.13 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 25.7% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [7].