□本报记者 王鹤静 在2025年四季度的结构性行情下，广发碳中和主题、中欧周期优选、泰信发展主题等一批主动权益基 金，凭借对储能、资源品等热门板块机遇的把握，顺利实现从业绩到规模的转化，成功盘活"小微"产 品。此外，鹏华稳健增利、富国盛利增强等二级债基抓住了"固收+"发展风口，通过进一步明确特色化 资产配置策略，资金关注度明显提高，同样顺利走出"小微"困境。 "小微"产品历来是让各家基金公司颇为头疼的"包袱"。此类产品如何把握市场机遇，盘活产品资源，从 而保护持有人利益？业内分析人士认为，基金管理人可以实施差异化战略，找准市场空白或细分领域， 打造特色产品；同时，加强投资者教育，让投资者了解产品的投资理念与优势、增强信任。而盲目跟风 市场热点、过度依赖短期营销手段等方式则不可取。 成功摆脱"小微"困境 2025年四季度的结构性行情，给公募机构提供了抓热点、做业绩的窗口期。其中，广发碳中和主题、中 欧周期优选、泰信发展主题等一批主动权益基金抓住机会，顺利摆脱生存困境。 "固收+"重整获资金认可 过去一年，在利率下行及权益市场走强的背景下，"固收+"基金颇受资金欢迎。2025年四季度，多只"固 收+"产品抓住发展 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations are intensifying, leading to potential price adjustments for copper and aluminum. The copper prices may experience volatility due to a strong dollar and profit-taking by long positions in the market. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are also expected to face similar adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% during its January meeting, with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, viewed as a hawkish choice [9]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic challenges [9]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37%, while the index itself fell by 0.44% [11]. - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance, with notable movements in gold, copper, and tungsten [11]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices saw an increase of 3.54% in London and 2.31% in Shanghai, while aluminum prices fluctuated with a 4.89% increase in Shanghai but a 1.39% decrease in London [22][36]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum showed mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories showing both increases and decreases across different markets [22][36]. 4. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report notes a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage in the copper supply-demand landscape, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to face a supply surplus in the short term, but with stable demand growth, a potential shortage may arise later in the year [5]. - **Lithium**: Despite a seasonal downturn, lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [5]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to continue rising due to structural constraints [5]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the sector, including Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics [5].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

有色金属 2026 年 2 月 1 日 有色金属周报 海外宏观预期边际变化，有色金属波动加剧 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：贵金属价格周内宽幅震荡。截至 1.30，COMEX 金主 力合约达 4907.5 美元/盎司，环比下跌 1.5%。黄金周内冲高回落。 SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.1%为 1087 吨。特朗普提名前美联储理 事凯文·沃什担任美联储主席. 市场预期沃什会支持降息，但不会像其 他潜在提名者那样采取激进的宽松货币政策。受宽币政策预期边际收 紧影响，叠加上半周金价加速走高，1.30 黄金价格出现加速回落。波 动率加速抬升背景下，金价短期或仍将呈现宽幅震荡走势。但长期来 看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线未现拐点，我们认为黄金 长期走势难言见顶，短期企稳后，金价中枢或仍将抬升。 工业金属：工业金属周内冲高回落。 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 25/01 25/04 25/07 25/10 26/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 风险提示： 证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful transformation of several small-scale active equity funds into larger funds within a single quarter, driven by strategic investments in high-demand sectors such as energy storage and resource commodities during the structural market conditions of Q4 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Growth - Several active equity funds, including GF Carbon Neutral Theme, China Europe Cycle Selection, and Taixin Development Theme, managed to escape the "small fund" predicament by capitalizing on market opportunities in Q4 2025 [2][4]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, these funds were all categorized as "small funds" with sizes below 100 million yuan, with Taixin Development Theme maintaining a size below 10 million yuan since its inception in 2015 [2]. - Taixin Development Theme significantly increased its allocation to energy metals and industrial metals, achieving a return of over 35% in Q4 2025, which led to a surge in its fund size from approximately 5.16 million yuan to 1.547 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The funds successfully adjusted their portfolios in Q4 2025, with GF Carbon Neutral Theme introducing nine new stocks, including major gainers like Tianhua New Energy and Dazhong Mining, while China Europe Cycle Selection updated seven stocks, focusing on resource sectors [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that successful fund managers utilized solid research capabilities to implement differentiated strategies, identifying market gaps and niche areas rather than merely following market trends [1][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Q4 2025 market saw significant growth in high-demand sectors such as AI, lithium batteries, and non-ferrous metals, which contributed to the substantial increase in fund net values and investor recognition [5]. - The article notes that smaller fund companies often adopt differentiated competition strategies due to limited resources, focusing on specific niche markets to meet institutional investors' needs [6][7].

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in non-ferrous metals is primarily driven by the strengthening of the US dollar, influenced by market expectations regarding the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, who advocates for a "strong dollar, loose regulation, and favorable credit" [1] - Concerns surrounding the US-Iran crisis have eased, but the future trajectory remains uncertain and requires time and policy validation [1] - There has been a phase of inventory accumulation and changes in funding behavior, with some metals experiencing a noticeable rebound in inventory after price increases, while previously accumulated long positions were liquidated amid changing macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the China Securities Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) saw significant declines in major stocks, with Nanshan Aluminum down 10.05% and Tongling Nonferrous Metals down 10.01% [2] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua (159162) reported an active trading session with a turnover of 16.29% and a transaction volume of 1.03 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, which includes companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth, account for 56.18% of the index [2]

Group 1 - Microsoft reported FY2026 Q2 earnings, exceeding market expectations for revenue and net profit, but faced significant capital expenditure increase of 66% to $37.5 billion, slowing growth in Azure business, and high dependency on OpenAI [1] - Following the earnings report, Microsoft's stock price dropped 10%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020, contributing to increased market volatility and tightening short-term liquidity [1] - Precious metals like gold and silver reached historical highs before experiencing significant declines due to profit-taking and market liquidity issues, with gold dropping 8.8% and silver falling 13.75% [1] Group 2 - The industrial and non-ferrous metals sector maintains a long-term upward trend, with short-term emotional disturbances presenting potential investment opportunities [2] - Copper faces a clear long-term supply gap due to insufficient capital expenditure, increased demand from the AI revolution, and macroeconomic recovery expectations [2] - The aluminum sector benefits from ongoing supply-side constraints and expanding applications, while rare earth metals are expected to see valuation increases due to stricter export controls [2] Group 3 - The CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) includes 30 major companies in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth industries, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [3] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 56.18% of the total, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth [3] - The MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for these stocks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the demand for aluminum is entering a new cycle supported by emerging economies, with a projected CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Domestic aluminum production capacity has reached its peak, while supply constraints in Europe and the U.S. due to energy shortages are expected to limit recovery, leading to a systematic decline in global supply growth with a CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - The demand side is benefiting from fiscal and monetary easing, with traditional demand expected to be boosted, and new drivers such as energy storage and data centers emerging as new engines for aluminum demand [1] Group 2 - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion into regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017 [2] - Companies that are first to expand overseas will build a first-mover advantage by securing resources and energy-rich areas [2] Group 3 - The continuous expansion of the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum, combined with global fiscal and monetary policy support, is expected to drive aluminum prices to new highs, with low-cost maintenance leading to increased profit margins per ton of aluminum [3] - Current average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is around 10 times, indicating significant upward revaluation potential during price increases, suggesting a favorable environment for the sector [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on three selection criteria: companies with high capacity and market value that show significant performance elasticity with rising aluminum prices; companies with overseas expansion capabilities and strong growth potential; and prioritizing companies with high self-sufficiency in alumina, especially if alumina prices are at a low point [4] - Recommended stocks include China Hongqiao (01378), Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH, 02600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH, 02610), and Huatong Cable (605196.SH) [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]