2025年05月17日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 国货美妆崛起正当时,聚焦 618 大促&新成分推出 自5月中旬起,在618预售启动、直播渠道发力以及电商平台让利加 码背景下,美妆消费热度持续提升。据第三方统计,李佳琦直播间 预售首日美妆 GMV 达25–35亿元,其中国货品牌珀莱雅、可复美 GMV 破亿，毛戈平等高端品牌亦表现亮眼。93.1%消费者倾向购 买现货,一口价、"准时达"等机制成为核心卖点，推动品牌从预 售长链条向"即时成交"转型。与此同时，消费者预算结构呈现"两 头分化"趋势，5月侧重轻量节日礼赠，6月偏好大件囤货，美妆、 个护、日化等"复购型消费"品类成为阶段性主力。我们认为,美 妆板块在消费节奏前置、促销效率提升背景下迎来交易性催化,化 妆品行业具备恢复动能。 功能性成分热度升温,推动消费从感性转向理性。近期麦角硫因等 新成分热度攀升,科伦药业董事长"亲自代言"带动该原料在护肤、 营养品等多个领域引发市场关注。麦角硫因作为超强抗氧化剂,具 备跨界潜力,补强了本土品牌在科技护肤赛道的护城河。此前重组 胶原蛋白等成分已进入功效护肤主流路径,国货品牌具备原料端话 语权 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the beauty and e-commerce industry in China, focusing on the performance of various platforms during the 2025 618 shopping festival, including 淘天集团 (Taotian Group), 京东 (JD.com), 抖音 (Douyin), and 拼多多 (Pinduoduo) [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Performance Metrics - 淘天集团's beauty segment exceeded expectations during the 618 shopping festival, with a GMV growth rate of 10.55% year-on-year, reaching 1,192.3 billion yuan, while the beauty segment specifically achieved a GMV of 98.4 billion yuan, growing 23.15% year-on-year [2][3]. - 京东's overall GMV target for the festival is approximately 2,500 billion yuan, with a growth target of 6.7% [3]. - 拼多多 aims for a GMV of 3,900 billion yuan with a target growth of 23% [3]. - 抖音's target GMV is around 4,800 billion yuan, with a growth target of 30% [3]. Strategic Collaborations and Market Trends - 淘天集团's collaboration with platforms like Tencent, Bilibili, and Xiaohongshu has attracted younger users and high-end consumers, leading to increased average transaction values and purchase frequency [1][4]. - The high-end luxury goods segment saw a sales increase of over 20% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending among the middle class and above [4]. - International beauty brands have a higher pre-sale position compared to domestic brands, benefiting from commission reductions [1][5]. Advertising and Cost Management - 淘天集团's customer management fee (CM2) growth rate reached 12%, indicating a decrease in advertising consumption monetization rates, which helps merchants reduce costs [1][3]. - The platform has shifted from a "full reduction" strategy to a "direct reduction" strategy to maintain merchant profit margins while ensuring over 20% growth throughout the shopping period [11]. Sales Performance of Brands - Brands like 珀莱雅 (Proya) and 兰蔻 (Lancôme) reported significant sales, with 珀莱雅 achieving 5.69 billion yuan (12.46% growth) and 兰蔻 reaching 5.39 billion yuan (25.05% growth) [12]. - 国货品牌 (domestic brands) like 可复美 (Cofume) saw a sales increase of 39.62%, reaching 4.51 billion yuan [12][26]. Competitive Landscape - The competition between international and domestic brands is intensifying, with international brands maintaining a conservative pricing strategy to avoid diluting brand value [5][20]. - Domestic brands are leveraging aggressive advertising and competitive pricing to capture market share, with brands like 薇诺娜 (Winona) maintaining good performance through value-for-money strategies [20]. Future Outlook - 淘天集团's annual GMV target is set at 7.8 billion yuan, with a focus on achieving higher growth in Q2 and Q4 [7]. - The DAU (Daily Active Users) target for the platform is 480 million, with an AAC (Average Active Customers) target of 10.4 to 10.9 billion [7]. Additional Important Insights - The shift in promotional strategies, such as the introduction of AI-driven smart coupons, aims to enhance user experience and improve return rates [11]. - The overall market performance has shown significant improvement, with high-end and luxury products outpacing fast-moving consumer goods [5][6]. - The collaboration with influencers like 李佳琦 (Li Jiaqi) continues to play a crucial role in driving sales for both domestic and international brands [12][26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and metrics from the conference call, highlighting the competitive dynamics and strategic initiatives within the beauty and e-commerce sectors during the 2025 shopping festival.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The new consumption sector shows significant differentiation, with the personal care industry growing faster than medical beauty and cosmetics. Brand iteration is accelerating, leading to widening performance gaps among companies such as Mao Ge Ping, Shangmei, and Juzi Biological, which are experiencing rapid growth, while Shanghai Jahwa and Huaxi Biological are seeing slower growth [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Beauty Sector Valuation**: The beauty sector still has room for valuation improvement, with PEG values referencing 2019 levels. Recommended companies include Jingbo Biological, Juzi Biological, and Dengkang Oral Care, along with Japanese brands Perfect Diary and Shangmei Life [1][5]. - **Food and Beverage Sector**: Focus is on food additives and snacks, with Baiming Chuangyuan expected to experience rapid growth from 2024 to 2026 due to capacity release and new product approvals. The current valuation is around 20 times. The konjac products are driving explosive growth in the snack sector, with attention on Yanjinpuzi and Wehaomei [1][6]. - **High School Education Reform**: The reform in the high school education system is favorable for private high schools, with Tianli International Holdings being undervalued at a PEG of about 0.3 and an annual growth rate of approximately 35%. Other companies like Xueda Education and Kevin Education are also worth monitoring [1][7][8]. - **Domestic Brands Growth**: Domestic brands are rapidly rising, while overseas brands, particularly from Japan and South Korea, are declining. The American brand group has collapsed in the domestic market, with only L'Oréal managing to sustain itself, but its momentum is expected to diminish next year [2]. Additional Important Insights - **AI in Consumption**: The AI-enhanced consumption sector is thriving, with AI glasses, AI e-commerce, AI education, and AI toys being the four core directions. Recommended companies include Kangnait Optical, with attention on Focus Technology, Xiaogoods City, and Haizhu Wang [3][11]. - **Traditional Retail Recommendations**: In traditional retail, focus on high dividend-yielding stocks. Companies like Chongqing Department Store, Bubugao, and Dashang Co. are highlighted for their stability and dividend performance [12]. - **Pet Industry Trends**: The pet industry is showing strong sales trends, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands rapidly gaining market share. Brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are maintaining strong growth momentum [16][17]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: The home appliance sector is expected to see improved revenue due to promotional activities and national subsidy policies, despite increased price competition. Companies like Midea and Haier are actively engaging in price wars to boost sales [18][19][20]. Conclusion The new consumption sector is characterized by rapid growth in personal care and food sectors, with significant opportunities in AI applications and domestic brands. The education reform and pet industry trends also present promising investment avenues. The home appliance sector faces challenges but shows potential for recovery through strategic pricing and export opportunities.

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to a positive consensus, with expectations for the export chain to recover as both sides agree to reduce tariffs significantly [1][19] - The 2025 "618" mid-year shopping festival has commenced, with major e-commerce platforms implementing strategies to stimulate consumer spending through simplified rules and increased subsidies [2][19] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The US has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will suspend or cancel corresponding tariffs on US goods [1][19] - The 618 shopping festival has seen platforms like Tmall and JD.com launching pre-sales and promotional strategies, with domestic brands showing strong growth [2][19] - Key investment themes include the return of offline traffic, AI technology upgrades, and the increasing willingness of consumers to pay for emotional value [3][58] Investment Recommendations - Focus on five investment themes: 1. Offline traffic recovery with beneficiaries including Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [3][58] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology with beneficiaries like Focus Technology and Aosheng Technology [3][58] 3. High-performing new retail sectors with beneficiaries such as Miniso and Pop Mart [3][58] 4. Recovery of cyclical sectors under domestic demand stimulation with beneficiaries like Mixue Group and Haidilao [3][58] 5. Expanding overseas consumption opportunities with beneficiaries including Miaow Exhibition and Anker Innovations [3][58] Macro & Industry Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a stable and improving consumption market [35][36] - The online retail penetration rate increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 14.9% [36][40]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to a positive consensus, with expectations for the export chain to recover as both sides agree to reduce tariffs significantly [1][21] - The 2025 "618" mid-year shopping festival has commenced, with major e-commerce platforms implementing strategies to stimulate consumer spending through simplified rules and increased subsidies [2][21] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The US has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will suspend or cancel corresponding tariffs on US goods [1][21] - The 618 shopping festival has seen platforms like Tmall and JD.com launching pre-sales and promotional strategies to attract consumers, with domestic brands showing strong growth [2][21] - Key investment themes include the return of offline traffic, AI technology upgrades, and the increasing willingness of consumers to pay for emotional value [3][64] Investment Recommendations - Focus on five investment themes: 1. Traditional retail sectors revitalizing due to returning foot traffic, with beneficiaries including Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [3][64] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology benefiting companies like Focus Technology and Aosheng Technology [3][64] 3. High-performing new retail sectors, with companies like Miniso and Pop Mart expected to outperform [3][64] 4. Cyclical sectors recovering from low levels, with companies like Mixue and Haidilao as potential beneficiaries [3][64] 5. Opportunities in overseas consumption, with support for domestic brands expanding internationally, focusing on companies like Miaow Exhibition and Anker Innovations [3][64] Macro & Industry Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a stable and improving consumption market [40][41] - Online retail sales accounted for 24.0% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [41][41] - The jewelry sector saw a decline in gold consumption, with a total of 985.31 tons consumed in 2024, reflecting a 9.58% decrease year-on-year [57][57]

商贸零售 2025 年 05 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《关注零售行业中期投资策略：深挖 情 绪 消 费 景 气 赛 道 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.5.11 《悦享生活，深挖情绪消费景气赛道 —2025 年零售行业中期投资策略》 -2025.5.7 《零售企业经营持续承压，关注高景 气优质公司—行业周报》-2025.5.5 618 大促拉开帷幕，关注国货美妆表现 ——行业周报 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070031 投资主线三（化妆品）：关注具备差异化且能力持续迭代的优质国货美妆品牌， 重点推荐毛戈平、珀莱雅、上美股份、巨子生物、润本股份、丸美生物等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebuttal by Huaxi Biological regarding the "outdated hyaluronic acid theory," claiming it is a narrative constructed by "restless capital" to divert attention from the necessary evolution of China's industry [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Context - Huaxi Biological argues that the rise of the "outdated hyaluronic acid theory" is a result of misleading narratives that have emerged in recent years, portraying hyaluronic acid as inferior to other substances [3][4]. - The company highlights that since 2022, the capital market has shifted its focus to the concept of recombinant collagen, which has been promoted through misleading comparative studies against the hyaluronic acid industry [3][4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Huaxi Biological has experienced a significant decline in net profit and stock price, with its market value dropping from over 140 billion yuan in 2021 to just 24.3 billion yuan currently [7]. - In contrast, competitors like Juzhi Biological, which went public in Hong Kong in 2022, have seen both their performance and stock price rise, with a current market value of 90.9 billion HKD [8]. - Another competitor, Jinbo Biological, listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, has also seen its stock price double in recent months, reaching a market value of 42.5 billion yuan [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual identity of Fan Daidi as both the new vice president of Northwest University and a wealthy entrepreneur, highlighting her significant contributions to the biotechnology industry through her company, Juzhi Biotechnology, which specializes in recombinant collagen products [2][3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Juzhi Biotechnology was founded in 2001 by Fan Daidi and her husband Yan Jianya, focusing on the commercialization of scientific research, particularly in recombinant collagen technology [5][7]. - As of May 15, 2025, Juzhi Biotechnology's market capitalization reached HKD 86.2 billion, with the couple's shareholding valued at over HKD 45 billion, making them the wealthiest couple in Shaanxi province [7]. - The company’s flagship product, the "Kefumei" mask, achieved annual sales of RMB 4.5 billion, showcasing the commercial success of their research [5][15]. Group 2: Research and Development - Fan Daidi's research on recombinant collagen began in the early 2000s, overcoming challenges associated with animal-derived collagen, leading to a breakthrough using E. coli fermentation for production [9][11]. - Juzhi Biotechnology's revenue heavily relies on its two main brands, "Kefumei" and "Keli Jin," which together account for 97.1% of the company's total revenue [12][18]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with figures of 83.3%, 84.6%, and 87.2% from 2019 to 2021, comparable to leading brands like Kweichow Moutai [16][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for collagen-based products is growing, with the medical beauty market for collagen masks valued at RMB 4.8 billion in 2021, projected to reach RMB 25.5 billion by 2027 [29]. - Juzhi Biotechnology faces competition from other brands in the beauty industry, which may impact its market share and growth potential [38][39]. - The company is also exploring new active ingredients, such as ginsenoside, to diversify its product offerings beyond collagen [36]. Group 4: Leadership and Future Prospects - Fan Daidi's appointment as vice president of Northwest University is seen as an opportunity to enhance the university's technology transfer capabilities, leveraging her industry experience [28][27]. - The company is considering succession planning, with their daughter Yan Yubo recently appointed as an executive director and chief product officer, indicating a focus on continuity and future growth [40][42].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience and vitality, with the Hang Seng Index continuously recovering since April, reaching a six-week consecutive rise by mid-May [1][2] - As of May 16, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.09% for the week, closing at 23,300 points, with significant contributions from entertainment, AI, and robotics sectors [2][4] Group 2: Star Stocks and Performance - Notable stocks include Zhisheng Technology Group, Lehua Entertainment, and Shengtong Technology, with stock prices doubling; Zhisheng Technology Group's stock surged by 208% [2][3] - Fourth Paradigm reported a 30.1% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 1.077 billion yuan, leading to an 11.63% stock price increase [4] - Tencent Music's net profit for Q1 reached 4.29 billion yuan, a 201.8% increase year-on-year, with its stock price rising over 14% [4] Group 3: Sector Highlights - AI and robotics stocks have become market stars, with Shengtong Technology launching advanced AI solutions and forming partnerships to enhance its market position [3] - The robotics sector saw significant activity, exemplified by UBTECH's 20% stock increase following a partnership with Huawei to develop humanoid robots [3] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hang Seng Index could test the 24,000-point mark if trading volumes remain strong, with a potential challenge to the March high of 24,874 points depending on market sentiment [5][6] - The market is expected to benefit from a recovery in prices and valuations across most sectors, with a focus on technology innovation, high dividend stocks, and policy-driven opportunities [6]

Core Insights - Yang Xia, founder of Jinbo Biotechnology, has become the richest woman in Shanxi with a wealth of 11.5 billion yuan, as reported in the 2025 Hurun Global Rich List [3][4] - Jinbo Biotechnology has made significant advancements in recombinant human collagen, leading to its successful listing on the capital market and becoming a leader in the industry [3][11] - Despite the impressive growth in revenue and net profit since its listing, Jinbo Biotechnology faces challenges such as slowing growth rates and high sales expenses [13][15] Company Overview - Jinbo Biotechnology specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-end implantable medical devices using recombinant human collagen as a core material [12] - The company's products are primarily used in medical aesthetics, surgical repair, and various medical fields [12] Financial Performance - Since its listing in 2023, Jinbo Biotechnology reported revenues of 780 million yuan and 1.443 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with growth rates of 99.96% and 84.92% [13] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 366 million yuan and a net profit of 169 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 62.51% and 66.25% [13] - The gross margin of Jinbo Biotechnology has been impressive, reaching 92.02% in 2024, although it saw a decline to 90.11% in Q1 2025 [15] Shareholder Dynamics - Yang Xia holds 58.89% of Jinbo Biotechnology's shares, maintaining significant control over the company [6][5] - Several shareholders have reduced their holdings, with a notable decrease in institutional ownership from 102 to 52 institutions [16][15] Market Position - Jinbo Biotechnology's current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 53.13, higher than competitors such as Aimeike and Juzhibio [17] - The company's stock price has increased significantly, with a rise of 112.35% since January 15, 2025, reaching a market capitalization of approximately 42.477 billion yuan [8][19]