①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.02%报49015.6点，标普500指数跌0.01%报6978.03点，纳指涨 0.17%报23857.45点； ②大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨逾1%，谷歌涨0.44%，微软涨0.22%，特斯拉跌0.1%，脸书跌 0.63%，亚马逊跌0.68%，苹果跌0.71%； ③热门中概股涨跌不一，亚朵跌逾3%，拼多多跌逾3%，玉柴国际跌逾3%，华住集团跌逾3%，禾赛科 技跌逾2%，POLIBELI涨逾9%，大健云仓涨逾6%，新东方涨逾5%，万物新生涨逾4%，百济神州涨逾 4%； ④欧洲主要股指全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌0.29%报24822.79点，法国CAC40指数跌1.06%报8066.68 点，英国富时100指数跌0.52%报10154.43点； ⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨6.46%报5411美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨10.06% 报116.62美元/盎司； ⑥国际油价集体上涨，美油主力合约收涨1.78%，报63.5美元/桶；布油主力合约涨1.56%，报67.63美元/ 桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.63%报96.35，离岸人民币对美元较上一交易日 ...

证券研究报告：商贸零售|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 近期研究报告 《11 月社零数据如何？》 - 2025.12.22 12 月社零数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2470.34 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2584.65 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1877.67 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 国家统计局发布最新社零数据，12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 45136 亿元，同比增长 0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 39654 亿元，增长 1.7%。2025 年，社会消费品零售总额 501202 亿元，比上 年增长 3.7%。其中，除汽车 ...

C君是一名年轻背包客，他习惯住在景区周边，这样能极大节约游玩时间成本。 01 最近不少计划寒假期间来北京旅游的外地朋友，不约而同地向劲旅君抱怨：北京的酒店怎么这么贵啊？！ A君想要趁着年前拖家带口来北京玩一趟，但在制定旅行计划时就对北京酒店的高价格感到无语。他在OTA上仔细寻摸一圈发现， 但凡是北京知名旅游景点周边，尤其是靠近地铁站的品牌连锁经济型酒店，动辄就七八百一晚起步，稍好一点的品牌连锁中高端酒 店价格直接破千。想要找便宜一点的，要么就是市区二环内不知名的小旅馆，要么只能往远郊区县找品牌连锁经济型酒店，距离市 内核心景区坐地铁都得一两个小时，就这还得四百多一晚。 劲旅君安慰道，或许是因为寒假旅游旺季，北京酒店涨点价格多少能理解。B君却摇头苦笑，这两年非节假日北京酒店的价格也不 见得便宜啊。 为此他在北京的住宿多以青旅为主。只不过他发现，主打廉价的北京青旅现在价格也在悄悄上涨。一个普通床位从原来的60-80元 涨到逼近百元，旺季甚至飙到150元以上。更让他无奈的是，即便频频涨价，北京现存的优质青旅还在不断减少，至少自己这几年 在北京住过的三五家青旅，已经没了一半。 作为资深差旅人士，B君每年频繁赴京出差， ...

（板块转发：兴证社服） 坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 （板块转发：兴证社服） 坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核心推荐：景气度景区：陕西旅游、三峡旅游、黄山旅游、九华旅游；行业触底迎来拐点酒店板块：锦江酒店/首 旅酒店/华住/亚朵；销售数据持续提升中国中免/珠免。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Huazhu has leveraged high commission rates to enhance its performance, positioning itself as a leading player in the hotel industry despite challenges faced by its franchisees [4][7][36]. Group 1: Commission Structure and Revenue - Huazhu's overall commission rate is estimated to reach 12%, significantly higher than Ctrip's hotel booking commission rate of approximately 8%-10% [4][26]. - In 2025, Huazhu's total revenue is projected to be 800 billion, with franchisees contributing 703 billion, and Huazhu earning 87 billion from franchisees, resulting in a commission rate of 12.38% [25][26]. - Huazhu has managed to collect service fees from Ctrip, amounting to 1.12 billion and 1.46 billion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, effectively recouping nearly half of its commission expenses [11][12]. Group 2: Franchisee Challenges - Many franchisees report difficulties due to a lack of distance protection, leading to multiple franchises opening within close proximity, which has resulted in declining single-store revenue [7][43]. - Franchisees are increasingly dissatisfied, with reports of high turnover among store managers and complaints about operational inefficiencies [41][46]. - The average occupancy rate and daily room price for Huazhu's franchisees have declined, with single-store revenue dropping from 637 million to 630 million [43][44]. Group 3: Membership and User Base - Huazhu has built a robust membership system, with over 300 million members as of Q3 2025, contributing significantly to its order volume [15][16]. - The central reservation system accounted for 65.1% of Huazhu's room nights, indicating a lower reliance on OTA platforms compared to competitors [16][17]. Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - Huazhu has aggressively expanded its franchise model, increasing the number of franchise hotels from 5,746 to 10,380 between 2020 and 2024 [30][31]. - The company has focused on upgrading older hotels, with the proportion of outdated stores dropping from 29% to 4%, while newer versions have increased from 34% to 71% [32][35]. - Despite the rapid expansion, the competitive landscape has intensified, leading to franchisee concerns about profitability and market saturation [38][46].

一是联合企业办学。海南软件职业技术学院与一批头部企业共建了9个产业学院。例如，与京东集团共 建京东数字产业学院，将京东真实的生产场景与技术标准融入课程体系；与网易集团共建数字创意产业 学院，师生直接参与网易游戏真实项目制作；与阿里国际设计、华住集团、携程集团等开设"AI设计订 单班""酒店数字化管理华住店长班""携程直播运营班"等订单班。2025届毕业生去向落实率达96%、专 业对口率85%、留琼率72%，实现了"招生即招工、入校即入企、毕业即就业、上岗即胜任"。 中新网海口1月26日电 (记者 王子谦)随着海南自贸港封关运作，高素质技术技能人才成为市场急需 的"香饽饽"。海南省政协委员、民进省委会副主委、海南省侨联副主席、海南软件职业技术学院院长韩 小雨26日表示，海南职业教育要创新探索具有自贸港特点的产教融合新模式，着力培养高素质"数智工 匠"人才。 政协第八届海南省委员会第四次会议首场"委员通道"当日举行，韩小雨说，随着海南自贸港封关运 作，"我们真切地感受到越来越多的优质企业和新型业态正在加快布局海南，对技能人才提出了旺盛的 需求，也纷纷向我们抛来了合作的橄榄枝。" 在旺盛的市场需求下，如何更好更快培 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current hotel industry is at a historical cycle bottom, with stock prices leading the fundamental recovery, suggesting a valuation repair is gradually starting [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The hotel industry is expected to enter a new normal growth phase, with leading companies showing resilience in performance due to supply-side adjustments and demand policy options [2] - The RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for leading hotels is anticipated to rebound as the industry stabilizes, with a shift from occupancy-focused strategies to optimal RevPAR strategies [2] - The hotel REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are providing capitalized opportunities for leading companies with operational efficiency advantages [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Leading hotel companies have shown non-linear growth characteristics, driven by cyclical turning points and capital integration, with long-term focus on scale and efficiency [1] - The valuation of leading hotels is influenced by macro supply-demand mismatches, with historical peaks reaching 40-50x during upcycles and dropping to 15-20x during downcycles [1] - Companies like Huazhu have demonstrated significant valuation expansion during mid-upgrade phases, while Atour has shown resilience by leveraging retail business to enhance valuation during industry downturns [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a divergence among companies, with leading firms benefiting from improved pricing power and operational efficiencies [2] - The growth of leisure travel and the decline in business travel demand are contributing to a favorable outlook for the hotel sector, supported by service consumption policies [2] - The ongoing valuation repair phase is characterized by different growth trajectories among leading companies, with Atour and Huazhu leading the charge in performance recovery [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as investment opportunities arising from policies promoting service consumption [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a 1.80% increase, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62% [8][10]. - The report notes that the hotel and restaurant sectors showed positive performance, with hotel stocks rising by 3.69% and restaurant stocks by 3.31% during the reporting period [18]. Related Companies - Recommended companies include hotels with balanced supply and demand such as Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Huazhu Group, as well as human resources services like Core International and Beijing Renli [5]. - The report also highlights companies in the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, such as China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [5]. - Other notable mentions include online and offline integrated platforms like Meituan and Alibaba, and innovative tourism companies like Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as the impact of service consumption-related policies on investment opportunities [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -7.7%, while the relative performance is -6.9% [3]. Weekly Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a rise of 1.80%, and the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62% [8]. - Notable performers in the sector included SF City with a 34.27% increase and Jiuhua Tourism with a 10.89% increase [5]. Important Announcements - Beijing Human Resources reported a planned reduction of 1.698 million shares by a shareholder, amounting to 313 million yuan, reducing their stake to 5.8% [31]. - Guilin Tourism expects to turn a profit in 2025 with a projected net profit of 11 million yuan, driven by a 10% increase in tourist numbers [31]. - Jinling Hotel anticipates a net profit of 55 million to 63.5 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.37% to 90.93% [31].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong sales performance of Pop Mart's new IP series "Star People" and the popularity of the "PUCKY" plush series, indicating a robust demand for collectible toys [1][2] - The average price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1500 RMB per gram, leading to a resurgence in consumer interest and long queues at traditional gold shops [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors and service industries that are expected to benefit from policy and technological support, including duty-free shopping, silver-haired tourism, and childcare consumption [4][65] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - Pop Mart continues to attract top IP artists, ensuring a steady flow of design inspiration and maintaining a leading position in product development and IP management [2] - The average gold price in Shanghai increased by 4.5% week-on-week, with many gold shops reporting record high prices [3] - The report notes a significant increase in consumer traffic at traditional gold shops during the Spring Festival shopping season, with long queues observed in major cities [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high growth potential and those benefiting from new policies, including duty-free shopping and tourism [4][65] - New consumption trends are expected to maintain demand, with industry leaders currently valued at relatively low levels, indicating potential for growth in sectors like collectible toys and fashion jewelry [7][65] - Retail innovation and international expansion are highlighted as key growth areas, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries [7][65]