[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.99%，在全部一级行业 中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金属板块上涨 1.31%，工业金属板块上涨 0.88%，能源金属板块上涨 2.42%，金属新材料板块上 涨 5.46%，小金属板块上涨 4.74%。工业金属方面，周初市场依旧跟随上周五超预 期的美国大非农数据运行，工业金属价格整体有所上涨；5 月 8 日美联储 FOMC 会 议，鲍威尔在宣布利率维持不变的同时再次重申了联储对于后续数据的依赖性，美 元指数与美债利率短线走强，工业金属价格回落。贵金属方面，本周美国总统特朗 普宣布美英达成贸易协定；此外中美宣布将于瑞士展开首次贸易谈话。随着关税局 势的日益缓和，以及美国经济数据依旧维持韧性，黄金仍处于回调整固阶段，我们 预计随着关税对经济的影响逐步显现，金价仍有进一步上行潜力。 ◼ 周观点： 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场延续上周非农交易，美联储鹰派发言压 制工业金属上行空间 增持（维持） 2025 年 05 月 ...

有色金属 证券研究报告 供给端存收紧预期，氧化铝价格底部反弹 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 11 日 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/5-2025/5/9） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价窄幅震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.80%/+0.30%/-0.93%，沪铜在 7.7-7.8 万之间窄幅震荡，正如我们前期所判断的 美国关税造成的流动性冲击缓解后铜价迎来反弹修复，铜价波动率逐步下降 ...

有色金属周报 20250511 宏观风险降温，金属价格震荡 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 本周（05/06-05/09）上证综指上涨 1.92%，沪深 300 指数上涨 2%，SW 有色 指数上涨 1.57%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金下跌-1.57%，COMEX 白银下跌-1.95%。工业 金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.78%、-0.52%、+0.40%、 +1.83%、-0.75%、-0.62%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 1.95%、-1.97%、-1.5%、-3.09%、-1.21%、+0.19%。 ➢ 工业金属：海外宏观方面多空交织，美国 4 月非农就业超预期和失业率稳定暂缓 衰退担忧，但一季度 GDP 年化收缩 0.3%叠加潜在关税又使经济停滞风险升高；国内 开启降准降息及公积金利率下调，宏观利好氛围不变，工业金属价格震荡。铜方面，供 应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.11 美元/干吨，周度环比减少 0.5 美元/ 干吨。Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的年中长单谈判预计将于月底正式开启，鉴于当前恶 劣的现货市场环境和严 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has been significantly increased in holdings, with copper and gold seeing the most substantial increases in Q1 2025. The sector is currently in an "overweight" position, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for continued growth [2][3] - The report highlights a positive outlook for Q2 2025, driven by domestic macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting internal demand, which is expected to benefit the industrial metals sector, particularly aluminum [3][5] - The report identifies specific investment opportunities within the sector, recommending increased holdings in rare earth magnetic materials and companies with strong cost control and favorable customer structures in aluminum processing [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market, with a sector increase of 12.0%, ranking first among 28 major industries [5][12] - The sector's performance is attributed to global monetary policy shifts towards easing and enhanced expectations for domestic economic recovery [5][12] Sub-Sectors Performance - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals sector showed the best performance in Q1 2025, with gold and silver prices increasing by 36.4% and 32.6% year-on-year, respectively. The sector's net profit rose by 51.8% year-on-year [45][46] - **Base Metals**: Base metals, excluding nickel, saw price increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 11.3% and 7.4% year-on-year. The net profit for copper increased by 79.6% year-on-year [38][41] - **Rare Metals**: The rare metals sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, particularly in the cobalt market, which has seen price increases due to supply disruptions [51][53] Holdings Situation - In Q1 2025, the overall holding ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector increased to 1.30%, up from 1.09% in Q4 2024, indicating a shift from underweight to a slight overweight position [56][57]

在 4 月初的关税大跌日来临之前，私募投资管理人的仓位多数达到最近几年的高点。 翻看 3 月底重点跟踪私募部分产品的月报，能看到彼时的乐观。一些过往 5-6 成的私募将仓位加到 8-9 成，也有不少私募保持满仓不能再满了。 4 月结束，正好是上市公司季报披露完毕，也是私募管理人 3 月份月报集中推出的时间点，照例盘点 mark 下。 总体而言，医药板块配置比例在多家私募中明显上升，仁桥夏俊杰将医药仓位从 9.6% 提升至 12.5% ；世诚投资陈家琳也明确指出 " 医药板块的复兴只是开始 " ；重阳投资对于创新药的看好更是体现在 个股和港股创新药 etf 的持仓当中。 加仓房地产及物业股的也不少，除了宁泉资产一直打的"明牌"，在港股增持碧桂园服务和万科企业，一 些私募的持仓也在上来，比如静瑞资本持仓超过 20% ，成为第二大重仓行业。 一直对紫金矿业偏爱有加的高毅资产邓晓峰，自 2023 年一季度起连续 7 个季度减持，在 2024 年四 季度恢复增持，今年一季度更是继续加码。同期还新进了云铝股份和中国铝业的前十大流通股东，这两 家公司都是他的过往爱股。在有色金属深度研究中赚到大钱的邓晓峰，也从不放过市场波动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration emphasizes the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction in China, aiming for full coverage by 2025, which is expected to enhance the flexibility of coal power generation and improve resource allocation in peak regulation and frequency modulation [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index (932037) increased by 0.15%, with notable gains from Huadian Heavy Industries (2.07%), Dingsheng Technology (1.77%), and Guodian NARI Technology (1.42%) [3]. - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) rose by 0.38%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.05 yuan [3]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF has seen a significant growth of 515.49 million yuan in scale over the past six months, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count increased by 9 million shares in the same period, also placing it in the top third of comparable funds [4]. - As of May 7, 2025, the ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.03% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 84.32% [4]. Group 3: Fee Structure and Valuation - The management fee for the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5]. - The index tracked by the ETF is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.4, below 98.08% of the time over the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [5]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Yangtze Power (10.48%), Guodian NARI Technology (7.31%), and China Nuclear Power (6.30%), collectively accounting for 51.18% of the index [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and holdings of the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund, which has a latest net value of 3.2680 yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.32% [1] - The fund's recent performance shows a one-month return of -1.12%, ranking 2120 out of 2340 in its category, a three-month return of -1.57%, ranking 1834 out of 2331, and a year-to-date return of 3.12%, ranking 846 out of 2320 [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the fund has a total scale of 1.155 billion yuan, and the top ten stock holdings account for a combined 67.75% of the portfolio, with notable holdings including Sailun Tire (9.57%), Haohua Technology (8.69%), and Yunnan Aluminum (8.06%) [1] Group 2 - The fund manager, Han Chuang, has a master's degree in economics and has been with Dachen Fund Management since June 2015, holding various positions including member of the stock investment decision committee [2] - Han Chuang has managed multiple funds, including the Dachen Consumer Theme Mixed Securities Investment Fund and the Dachen New Industry Mixed Securities Investment Fund, before taking on the role of manager for the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund in January 2021 [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4603.44, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also experienced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2489 tons, aluminum down 8027 tons, zinc down 4552 tons, lead down 4721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

民生证券近日发布有色金属周报：本周（04/28-04/30）上证综指下跌0.49%，沪深300指 数下跌0.43%，SW有色指数下跌0.81%，贵金属COMEX黄金下跌-1.00%，COMEX白银下 跌-1.01%。工业金属LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+1.11%、+0.83%、 +0.57%、+1.28%、+0.35%、+1.79%，工业金属库存LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变 动-2.36%、-2.48%、-5.27%、-4.14%、-1.44%、-2.65%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 贵金属：市场对中美达成贸易协议的乐观态度，削弱了避险资产，金价短期回落，美元 走弱大趋势下继续看好贵金属价格后续表现。目前市场对中美达成贸易协议的乐观态度，削 弱了避险资产，对金价反弹造成限制。中长期来看，去美元中心化+美元信用弱化为主线， 全球贸易担忧情绪仍存，叠加俄乌冲突不断升级，看好金价中枢上移。白银价格受金价回落 影响也有所回落，但工业属性利好使得其回落幅度小于黄金，后续若看到金价反弹，银价弹 性相对更高，价格有望创历史新高。重点推荐：万国黄金集团、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金 矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、湖 ...