Group 1 - The steel raw materials sector increased by 2.99% compared to the previous trading day, with Guangdong Mingzhu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the steel raw materials sector showed varied performance, with Guangdong Mingzhu rising by 9.99% to a closing price of 8.48, and Hebei Steel Resources declining by 1.62% to a closing price of 24.23 [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the steel raw materials sector was 15.71 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 21.07 million yuan [1] - Major stocks like Dazhong Mining and Guangdong Mingzhu experienced significant net inflows from main funds, with Dazhong Mining receiving 56.14 million yuan [2] - Retail investors showed a mixed response, with some stocks like Dazhong Mining and Guangdong Mingzhu facing net outflows from retail funds [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Dazhong Mining executed a block trade of 5.5802 million shares on January 19, with a transaction value of 137 million yuan, accounting for 10.73% of the total trading volume for that day [1] - The transaction price was set at 24.48 yuan per share, which represents a discount of 13.86% compared to the market closing price of 28.42 yuan [1] - The buyer of the shares was 13,660 Guoyao Securities Co., Ltd., while the seller was Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing a positive quarterly rhythm for steel equities [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 2,700, showing a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,320 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.2% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,330 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.8% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 107 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 8.65 million tons, with a year-to-date decrease of 0.8% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 3.81 million tons, showing a year-to-date increase of 1.2% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16.55 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 4.3% [5] Supply and Demand - Weekly production of five major steel products is projected to be around 900,000 tons [9] - Daily molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 245,000 tons [9] - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand figures showing a positive trend [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing a positive quarterly rhythm for steel equities [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 2,700, with a weekly increase of 4.0% and a year-to-date increase of 15.0% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,320 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.2% and no change year-to-date [3] - The iron ore price index is at 107 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 865,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 8.0% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 381,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.1% and a year-to-date increase of 1.2% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,551,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% and a year-to-date increase of 4.3% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 900,000 tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to reach 245,000 tons [9] - The operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 mills is currently at a healthy level, indicating stable production capacity utilization [11]

Group 1: Lithium Market - Lithium battery demand remains strong despite the off-season, with a reversal in supply and demand for lithium carbonate, leading to an upward price trend [4] - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene concentrate rose by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton [4] - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate rose by 1.94% to 146,200 CNY/ton, although there was a limit down on Friday due to increased regulatory scrutiny and profit-taking by speculative funds [4] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices may experience high volatility in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME copper down by 0.50% [2] - Significant inventory increases were noted, with LME copper inventory rising by 3.31% to 144,000 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory up by 17.20% to 321,000 tons [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47%, indicating a potential demand recovery [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices are expected to face high volatility due to inventory accumulation, with domestic aluminum inventory increasing by 29.24% to 185,900 tons [3] - The price of alumina fell by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices rose by 0.83% to 24,200 CNY/ton [3] - The demand for aluminum may increase due to the "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the home appliance sector, driven by high copper prices [3] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The cobalt raw material supply remains tight, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, implementing a quota system instead, which may affect the timing of raw material availability in the domestic market [5] - The structural tightness in cobalt raw materials is expected to persist, supporting upward price momentum [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2026.1.9 - 2026.1.16), the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with the benchmark spot price reaching 156,250 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 1.94% and a closing price of 146,200 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. Although a few lithium salt plants scheduled maintenance, the actual impact on production was limited, and most enterprises maintained stable production. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The demand expectation in the energy storage field remained strong, but the power battery was in a seasonal off - peak season, and some material plants' maintenance suppressed the current spot procurement demand. Downstream material plants were cautious about the current high - price spot and mainly purchased for rigid demand [11]. - This week, the industry cost remained stable, and the industry profit turned from loss to profit. The overall industry inventory level was low, and the inventory might continue to accumulate this week. Lithium salt plants were more willing to sell scattered orders, the inventory in the trader link increased, and the downstream inventory remained low or decreased [11]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The positive policy expectation has not been falsified, and the supply side still has uncertainties, which support the price. However, the weak spot - market transactions and the strengthened exchange supervision measures also resist the price increase. The current upward momentum comes from the demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the wide - range fluctuations in the market caused by changes in capital sentiment due to exchange risk control [11]. - The unilateral strategy considers range - bound operations for LC2605, with the contract reference range at (130,000, 170,000); or buy put options [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Views and Hot News - **Hot News** - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - On January 4, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" proposed to promote the integrated construction of heavy non - ferrous metal mining and beneficiation, and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid - waste treatment capacity. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised concerns again [8]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key lies in standardizing the order and innovation - leading [8]. - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, reducing the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 - 20,000 tons [8]. - On December 24, it was reported that the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Jiangxi Yichun Tendering Network released the first environmental - impact assessment information for the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. [8] - **Week - ly View** - **Market Review**: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures main contract also increased. The current main - month contract had a position of about 416,100 lots [11]. - **Supply**: Production increased slightly, with high operating rates and new - capacity contributions. Geopolitical factors had long - term impacts, but a South American mine planned to resume partial production by the end of January [11]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand scheduling decreased, but the energy - storage demand was strong. The "rush - to - export" expectation due to the tax - rebate policy was optimistic for the first - quarter demand. The power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The cost remained stable, and the profit turned from loss to profit. The overall inventory was low, and it might continue to accumulate [11]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand were both strong. Policy expectations and supply uncertainties supported the price, while weak transactions and exchange supervision resisted the increase. The upward momentum came from demand expectations, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider range - bound operations for LC2605 or buy put options [11] 2. Industry Pattern - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, recycled lithium extraction), lithium - salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium - ion batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, 3C digital, energy storage, etc.) [15][16] 3. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The closing price of the active lithium - carbonate contract was 146,200 yuan/ton, a 1.94% increase from the previous period. The trading volume increased by 26.00% to 591,523 lots, and the position decreased by 18.54% to 416,133 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts increased by 8.27% to 27,458 lots [22]. - **Spot Market** - The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. As of January 16, 2026, the benchmark spot price was 156,250 yuan/ton, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026 [11] 4. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,844 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The market inventory decreased by 2.42% to 64,356 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 0.36% to 18,030 tons, and the registered warehouse - receipt volume increased by 8.27% to 27,458 tons [33] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost of lithium carbonate was 153,218 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase from the previous period. The profit was 4,732 yuan/ton, a 137.24% increase from the previous loss of 12,705.2 yuan/ton [40] 6. Supply - **Production Capacity, Output, and Imports/Exports** - The production of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - Multiple companies have planned new production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. - **Import Situation** - The report shows import - related charts of lithium carbonate, including monthly import season charts, annual cumulative import, and import from different countries [48][49] - **Production from Different Raw Materials** - The report presents monthly production season charts of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycled materials [58][60] - **Spodumene Import** - The report shows monthly import season charts of spodumene from different regions such as Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as import volume and cumulative import [69][72] 7. Demand - **Overall Demand** - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The energy - storage demand was strong, but the power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - The report shows charts related to the overall demand, such as monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, retail penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and monthly production of power batteries [82][84]. - **Power Batteries** - The report shows charts related to power - battery production, installation, export, energy storage, and the proportion of different vehicle - type power - battery installations [88]. - **Output of Each Material** - The report shows the output of materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate [98][100] 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to a certain period in 2025, including total supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of each material, and inventory [107]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue a strong oscillation in prices, supported by macroeconomic conditions and cost factors [3] - The report indicates that the steel sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.62% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 index [10] - The report highlights a potential for profit recovery in the steel sector, driven by improved supply dynamics and favorable pricing conditions [3] Supply Summary - As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies was 85.5%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week [23] - Electric furnace capacity utilization increased to 58.0%, up by 1.08 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The total output of five major steel products reached 7.153 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons week-on-week [23] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.261 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 29.3 thousand tons [33] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 92 thousand tons, down by 0.36 thousand tons week-on-week [33] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.663 million tons, an increase of 1.16 thousand tons week-on-week [41] - Factory inventory decreased to 3.807 million tons, down by 8.07 thousand tons week-on-week [41] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,457.5 CNY/ton, up by 5.28 CNY/ton week-on-week [46] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 72 CNY/ton, an increase of 9.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [54] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces was -39 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [54] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 819 CNY/ton, down by 4.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [72] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750 CNY/ton, up by 100.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [72] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,715 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [72] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality steel companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - Companies involved in restructuring and with strong growth potential, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, are also recommended [3] - Special steel enterprises benefiting from a new energy cycle, such as CITIC Special Steel and Jiuli Special Materials, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Nickel supply from Indonesia is expected to contract, providing support for nickel ore prices. As of January 16, the LME nickel spot price was $17,625 per ton, down 0.28% from January 9, while the total LME nickel inventory increased by 0.33% to 285,732 tons. The Shanghai nickel price rose by 5.01% to 144,000 yuan per ton during the same period [1] - The cobalt raw material supply in China is expected to remain structurally tight for a long time, with cobalt prices likely to continue rising. As of January 16, the price of electrolytic cobalt was 455,000 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from January 9 [2][5] - Antimony prices have stopped falling and are expected to be supported by improved demand and tight supply. As of January 15, the average price of domestic antimony concentrate was 142,500 yuan per ton, up 1.42% from January 8 [6] - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to rise significantly, with the average market price reaching 157,900 yuan per ton as of January 16, up 12.72% from January 9. The demand for lithium is expected to remain strong [8][19] - The price of tungsten is expected to rise further due to tight supply conditions. As of January 16, the price of white tungsten concentrate (65%) was 505,500 yuan per ton, up 5.20% from January 9 [13][21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - Nickel prices are expected to be supported by supply constraints from Indonesia, with a projected mining quota of 250-260 million tons for 2026, lower than market expectations. The market is also concerned about additional taxes on by-products like cobalt and iron [1][16] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to export quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a projected production of 29,000 tons globally in 2024, a 21.8% increase year-on-year [5][17] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices are supported by tight supply and improved demand, with expectations of further price increases due to ongoing supply constraints, especially in northern China [6][18] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by strong demand and supply uncertainties. The average price reached 157,900 yuan per ton, with expectations for continued strong performance in the near term [8][19] Tungsten Industry - The tungsten market is facing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to rise further. The domestic mining quota for tungsten is projected to be lower than previous years, contributing to supply constraints [13][21] Uranium Industry - The uranium market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices remaining high due to geopolitical factors and structural shortages in supply. The global uranium price was $63.51 per pound as of December [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a potential recovery in profits for the steel industry. The report highlights that production of major steel products has increased, while total inventory has decreased, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [7][30]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of steel manufacturers is expected to recover in the short term due to improved supply-demand conditions and stable cost support from raw materials [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of January 16, steel prices have risen, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,320 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price increases [13][14]. 2. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.19 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 11,700 tons to 865,320 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory management [7][30]. 3. Profitability - The report notes a decline in steel profits, with average margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 13 CNY/ton, 4 CNY/ton, and 18 CNY/ton respectively. However, the overall outlook for profit recovery remains optimistic [7][30]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - General Steel Leaders: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel - Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel - Pipe Manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. - Raw Material Sector: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium ore), Fangda Carbon [7][30].