证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|航空强国月报（第 1 期） 运输端春运启示：高客座率下高价格弹性初 推荐（维持） 现；制造端继续看好国产大飞机产业链 四、海外视角之航空制造：主机厂继续爬坡，核心供应链业绩快速增长。 1、主机厂：波音公司（BA.N）与空客集团（AIR.PA）：产能继续爬坡，在手 订单超 1.5 万架。1）交付，2025 年空客交付 793 架，恢复至 19 年的 92%， 波音交付 600 架，为此前高峰 2018 年的 74%。2）订单，空客与波音在手订 单合计超过 1.5 万架，其中空客截至 26 年 1 月 8783 架，波音截至 25 年末 6777 架。3）产能提升计划：波音公司 737 月产量稳定在 42 架/月计划提升至 47 架/月，之后进一步提升至 52 架/月，787 周产量稳定在 8 架/周，计划 2026 年提升至 10 架/周；空客 A320 系列预计到 2027 年底达到每月 70-75 架飞机的 生产速度。4）交付指引：空客指引 2026 年约 870 架商用飞机交付。 2、供应链： GE 航空航天全年交付商用发动机 2386 台，其中 LEAP 系列 1802 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|航空强国月报（第 1 期） 运输端春运启示：高客座率下高价格弹性初 推荐（维持） 现；制造端继续看好国产大飞机产业链 四、海外视角之航空制造：主机厂继续爬坡，核心供应链业绩快速增长。 1、主机厂：波音公司（BA.N）与空客集团（AIR.PA）：产能继续爬坡，在手 订单超 1.5 万架。1）交付，2025 年空客交付 793 架，恢复至 19 年的 92%， 波音交付 600 架，为此前高峰 2018 年的 74%。2）订单，空客与波音在手订 单合计超过 1.5 万架，其中空客截至 26 年 1 月 8783 架，波音截至 25 年末 6777 架。3）产能提升计划：波音公司 737 月产量稳定在 42 架/月计划提升至 47 架/月，之后进一步提升至 52 架/月，787 周产量稳定在 8 架/周，计划 2026 年提升至 10 架/周；空客 A320 系列预计到 2027 年底达到每月 70-75 架飞机的 生产速度。4）交付指引：空客指引 2026 年约 870 架商用飞机交付。 2、供应链： GE 航空航天全年交付商用发动机 2386 台，其中 LEAP 系列 1802 ...

板块市场回顾 上周（2026/2/21-2026/2/27）交运指数上涨 3.3%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.1%，跑赢大盘 2.2%，排名 14/29。交运子板 块中航运板块涨幅最大(+11.9%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-1.8%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（2 月 16 日-2 月 22 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 8.06 亿件，同比- 77.8%,环比-64.7%；累计投递量约 6.3 亿件，同比-83.7%,环比-81.1%。在监管底线较明确、反内卷思路延续的背景 下，行业价格大幅下探概率不高，同时考虑去年同期基数偏低，当前价格同比改善仍有望对利润端形成支撑，看好龙 头企业份额持续提升，关注中通快递，极兔海外市场保持较高成长持续看好。 物流：化工品价格看涨，看好化工物流。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 4041 点，同比-8.1%，环比-持平。本 周对二甲苯（PX）开工率为 93.25%，环比持平，同比+1.9pct；甲醇开工率为 87.4%，环比+0.1pct，同比+11.9pct； 乙二醇开工率为 66.2%，环比+0.9%，同比+6.3pct。原油价格上涨化 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The military strike by the US against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have profound impacts on the global oil transportation market, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased oil transportation costs [3][15] - Tesla's Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, has been launched, marking a significant step towards the original dedicated era of Robotaxi services [3][17] - A strategic partnership between Youjia Innovation, Didi, and Wall Street Technology aims to advance the large-scale deployment of driverless logistics vehicles, filling a market gap for vehicle-grade autonomous logistics [3][32] - The pre-sale ticket prices for economy class flights during the 2026 Spring Festival have shown a year-on-year increase, indicating stable industry performance as demand is released [3][34] - Uber has launched the Uber Air service supported by Joby, integrating ground and air travel booking, which validates the commercial viability of eVTOL [3][41] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, while domestic air freight flights have seen a decline [4][44] - The shipping and port sector has experienced an increase in domestic shipping rates, while dry bulk freight rates have also risen [4][52] - The express logistics sector reported a 2.30% year-on-year increase in business volume and a 0.70% increase in revenue as of December 2025 [4] - The average number of international flights operated daily in the last week of February 2026 was 1992.86, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 19.22% [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways decreased by 40.04% from February 9 to February 15 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly oil transportation, dry bulk, and container shipping due to geopolitical tensions, with recommendations for China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [5] - Consider investments in low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter and monitoring Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the travel sector driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [5] - Look into international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Pay attention to investment opportunities in the highway sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu Expressway and other major expressway companies [5]

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 01 日 伊朗局势油运行情空中加油，集运 造船联 ...

航空淡季不淡把握加仓机会，油运大周期加速持续看好 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 南方航空 | 7.34 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.54 | -31.91 | -81.56 | 24.30 | 16.85 | 13.48 | 买入 | | | | 中国东航 | 5.73 | -0.37 | -0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [2] Core Insights - The demand for international air travel is driven by both leisure and business travel, with a significant correlation to international trade and investment activities. The report highlights a notable increase in outbound investment from China, which is expected to boost international flight offerings [4][5] - The report anticipates that international routes from China will see growth primarily in Europe and Asia, with a gradual recovery in North America, leading to sustained industry optimism [4][5] - The report emphasizes the advantages of major Chinese airlines, particularly China Eastern Airlines, due to their rapid recovery in international routes and increased flight offerings [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the aviation industry is approximately 716.41 billion yuan, with 12 listed companies [2] - The report notes a significant recovery in international air travel, with domestic airlines leading the recovery compared to foreign airlines [5][6] Investment Activities - China's outbound direct investment is projected to reach 1,245.58 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [4][19] - The report indicates that the number of Chinese companies engaging in overseas investments has increased significantly, with a notable rise in revenue from these activities [4][35] Passenger Flow and Travel Policies - The report highlights the positive impact of visa-free policies on inbound tourism, with a 26% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors to China in 2025 [5][55] - The number of outbound trips by Chinese residents is expected to grow by 15% in 2025, nearing pre-pandemic levels [5][58] Future Trends - The report predicts that Asian routes will dominate international air travel, with significant growth expected in flights to Japan, South Korea, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [5][6] - European routes are also expected to see an increase in flight volumes, driven by enhanced trade relations and investment activities [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines, particularly China Eastern Airlines, due to their strong recovery and expansion in international routes [5][6]

（来源：中信建投财富管理） 在公募基金行业，有这样一批中生代基金经理，他们历经多轮牛熊周期的淬炼，以系统化的投资框架、敏锐的产业洞察和亮眼的历史业绩表现，成为众多 投资者关注的焦点。韩创，便是这一群体中的杰出代表。 作为大成基金股票投资部副总监、董事总经理，韩创凭借"周期+成长"的独特投资逻辑，在化工、有色、高端制造等领域深耕细作，所管理的大成产业趋 势混合基金（A类代码：010826），自成立以来穿越市场波动，成为无数投资者布局产业趋势的重要选择。 景气投资，攻守有道 韩创具有13年证券从业经验，其中7年基金管理经验，产业趋势洞察力敏锐，产业资源充沛，投资经验丰富，擅长捕捉和把握景气蕴含的投资机会。所管 产品历史业绩亮眼，位居同类前列。2015年6月加入大成基金管理有限公司，现任大成基金股票投资部副总监兼董事总经理。 资料来源：大成基金；历史不代表未来，市场有风险， 投资需谨慎 韩创擅长精选具备贝塔的行业、挖掘具有阿尔法的公司，兼顾估值相对合理。他的能力圈不断拓展，目前已覆盖偏上游的金融、地产、有色、化工等行 业，偏中游的制造业，以及下游的以汽车为代表的可选消费，并形成了独具一格的景气成长投资体系。 险，投 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a fluctuating upward trend in the index, with a primary focus on style rebalancing [4][5] - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery after initial volatility, with significant performance differences among major indices [5][6] Domestic Policy and Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China conducted a 600 billion MLF operation and net injected 300 billion, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased liquidity to ensure reasonable liquidity before and after the Spring Festival [2] - The strengthening of the RMB has stabilized expectations for cross-border capital flows [2] Sector Performance - In the technology sector, midstream high-end manufacturing has led the gains, particularly in defense, machinery, and power equipment, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic equipment renewal cycles [2] - In the cyclical sector, building materials, steel, and coal have outperformed, with glass fiber leading due to supply-side optimization and demand from AI and new energy [3] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a pullback due to fluctuating expectations around U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical disturbances [3] Market Trends and Historical Context - Historical data from 2010 to 2025 indicates a high probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the month following the Spring Festival, particularly after a month of adjustment or fluctuation [6] - The report suggests that the market is likely to follow a "diffusion" model of industry rotation rather than a dramatic style switch, with a focus on moderate rebalancing [6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on "supply constraints + visible profits" as dual main lines, particularly in midstream high-end manufacturing [6] - The core trading logic around the AI chain continues to revolve around profit visibility and supply shortages, with a cautious approach to market liquidity [6] - Opportunities for Chinese manufacturing to expand overseas are highlighted, particularly in sectors like power equipment and engineering machinery [6] Recommended Stocks - The March stock selection includes a mix of sectors such as central enterprise dividend ETFs, hospitality, electronics, military, machinery, beverages, and communications [10]

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者钱擘 通讯员朱江 报道：近日，东航的"睿燕"飞机健康管理系统，成 功实现对国产民机C909和C919机型的全面技术支持。 当前，航空维修领域正经历一场以数据驱动为核心的转型。近年来，东航技术公司持续加大科技投 入，"睿燕"飞机健康管理系统在此背景下逐步建立并完善，能实现对飞机关键参数的实时监控，并构建 智能预测模型网络，使"预测性维修"理念逐步走向常态化应用，可协助工作人员及时发现潜在故障和异 常运行事件，据此合理安排维修工作。同时，通过空地数据链，"睿燕"飞机健康管理系统使运控部门能 及时掌握飞机故障情况，便于协调机务维修资源、调整航班计划，故障处理效率大幅提升。此前，该系 统已对东航的空客A320、A330和A350机型实施全方位监控。 未来，东航"睿燕"飞机健康管理系统还将持续加强自主研发，进一步覆盖更多机型，助力企业的数字化 转型发展。（编辑：李季威 校对：张彤 审核：程凌） 而随着东航国产C909和C919机队的建设，"睿燕"飞机健康管理系统同步推进适配工作，针对国产飞机 特有的系统架构，项目团队完成了报文解析功能的开发，并协助东航技术公司工程师构建了适用于 C909 ...