Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of pre - exporting has resurfaced, and the expectation of supply - demand improvement has pushed up base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin, and low - buying opportunities in nickel. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin may tighten, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and copper prices remain high. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December showed certain trends; the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0; China's electrolytic copper production increased in December; spot copper had a certain premium; there were strikes at a Chilean copper mine and a delay in the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply is tightening, and refined copper supply is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, future supply - demand is expected to be tight. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina prices in different regions showed changes on January 14, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is low, price fluctuations may increase. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [10]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums changed on January 14; domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased; the aluminum ingot premium in Japan rose; China's aluminum exports in December 2025 had a certain growth rate. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is positive. On the supply side, there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. In the medium term, the supply - demand may turn to shortage, and the price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at high levels. - **Analysis**: The prices of aluminum alloy and related products changed on January 14; an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and demand may improve marginally. Inventory shows different trends in different types. - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still resilient, and zinc prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums in different regions were reported on January 14; zinc inventory decreased slightly; a zinc mine in Australia faced production pressure due to railway damage. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, while in the long term, there is a risk of decline. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [18][19]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the upside space for lead prices is limited. - **Analysis**: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed on January 14; lead inventory increased; lead consumption was weak. - **Logic**: The spot premium increased, the supply increased as smelters resumed production, and the demand was seasonally weak. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile [20][21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations compete with weak reality, and nickel prices rise again. - **Analysis**: Nickel warehouse receipts and inventory increased on January 14; Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota in 2026, and the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains, demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quotas is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [22][23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to rise, and the stainless - steel market surges. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot stainless - steel had a certain premium; ferronickel prices rose; the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: Cost support exists, production may increase slightly in January, but demand is weak, and inventory may accumulate. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue, and tin prices soar. - **Analysis**: Tin warehouse receipts and positions increased on January 14; the spot tin price rose significantly. - **Logic**: Supply is restricted in multiple areas, such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. Demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and the development of related industries. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [25][26]. Market Monitoring - Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70%. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 14 was 2851.75, with a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [152][153].

多位石油行业消息人士周三透露，雪佛龙公司有望本周从美国政府获得扩大后的委内瑞拉运营许可，这 将使其能够增加在委内瑞拉的石油产量和出口量。 上周有报道称，雪佛龙公司正与美国方面进行谈判，旨在扩大其在委内瑞拉的运营许可范围，以便能够 增加对自身炼油厂的原油出口量，并向其他买家出售原油。有消息人士称，如果获得批准，该公司甚至 可能将委内瑞拉国家石油公司PDVSA自身的部分原油产量进行交易。 雪佛龙是目前唯一一家在委内瑞拉开采原油的美国大型石油公司，其与PDVSA合作，日产量约为 24 万 桶。自去年7 月以来，该公司一直在委内瑞拉运营，并在获得美国有限授权的情况下向美国出口石油， 该授权使该公司免受美国对委内瑞拉的制裁影响。 另据一位美国官员透露，美国已完成了与委内瑞拉的首批石油交易，这是加尔加斯与华盛顿之间价值 20 亿美元协议的一部分。他还补充说，未来几天和几周内还会有更多的交易。此前有报道称，雪佛龙 公司以及全球贸易巨头维托尔和托克已展开竞争，争取获得美国政府的出口委内瑞拉原油的合同。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 多位石油行业消息人士周三透露，雪佛龙公司有望本周从美国政府获得扩大后的委内瑞拉运营许可，这 将使 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 14, 2026 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 14, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Shanghai Tin rose 8%, Shanghai Silver rose over 8%, Fuel Oil rose over 6%, and Platinum rose over 3%. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Pure Benzene rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Lithium Carbonate fell over 3%, Caustic Soda fell over 2%, and Glass, Polysilicon, Coking Coal, and Rapeseed Meal fell over 1% [6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.29%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.62%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.09%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract rose 0.08%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.04% [7]. 1.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on January 14, in terms of capital inflows into domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an inflow of 4.395 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 4.248 billion yuan, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 2603 had an inflow of 3.545 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 785 million yuan, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, and Alumina 2605 had an outflow of 316 million yuan [7]. 2. Market Analysis of Key Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened high and moved higher, rising during the day. The US inflation data in December increased market expectations of an interest rate cut in April. In terms of supply, copper smelters are facing profit challenges, and refined copper production is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. In terms of demand, terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper product sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. The market is worried about the US refining copper tariff, which supports the copper price [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and then declined during the day. In December 2025, production increased, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand for energy storage batteries remains strong, but the export tax rebate policy adjustment and the exchange's trading policy adjustment have affected the market. Despite the downward movement in the short term, the overall sentiment is still bullish, with the risk of CATL resuming production [11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory increased. The market is still worried about demand, and the global crude oil market is in a state of oversupply. The situation in Iran and Venezuela may affect the supply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [12][13]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the expected production in January 2026 also decreased. The downstream demand is weak in the north and average in the south. The situation in Venezuela may affect the raw material supply and production cost of domestic asphalt. It is recommended to focus on the raw material shortage of domestic refineries and consider reverse arbitrage [14][16]. 2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP is at a low level, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a medium - low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and the supply is increasing with new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The upward space of PP is expected to be limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and new capacity has been put into production. The downstream demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak, and the export is average. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. With the cancellation of export tax rebates, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened low and then adjusted downward nearly 2% during the day. The supply of imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. Coking enterprises and steel mills are replenishing inventory. Despite the short - term adjustment, Coking Coal is expected to remain strong in the long term [22]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and rose over 2% during the day. The daily production has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The agricultural demand is increasing, but the industrial demand is weakening due to the approaching Spring Festival. The short - term strength of urea is expected to be difficult to sustain, and it will be adjusted at a high level [23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment supports the upward movement of copper prices. The US inflation data in December 2026 increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in April. The supply side has issues such as unprofitable long - term contracts for smelters and potential production decline in January. The demand side has strong terminal demand but a cautious copper products sector, and there is a large inventory build - up. Concerns about US tariffs and inventory hoarding support the copper price [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and rose during the day. The US December inflation data showed that overall CPI was up 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI was up 2.6% year - on - year, both were flat with November and lower than market expectations. After seasonal adjustment, CPI was up 0.3% month - on - month as expected, and core CPI was up 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. In 2026, copper smelters can't profit from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points. The refined - scrap copper price difference is still abnormal, but weak downstream demand restricts scrap copper trading. Five smelters plan to stop production in January, and one new smelter's start - up is postponed. Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore restarted merger negotiations, and if the deal is completed, they may control 15% of the global copper supply. Terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious, and there is a large inventory build - up. The market is worried about the US proposing refined copper tariffs, which supports copper prices [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and rose during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 150 yuan/ton, and in South China is 30 yuan/ton. On January 13, 2026, the LME official price was 13310 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was +75 US dollars/ton [3]. 3. Supply Side - As of January 12, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 45.1 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.6 US cents/pound [5]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 149,300 tons, an increase of 27,212 tons from the previous period. As of January 12, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,000 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 141,600 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 529,500 short tons, an increase of 9,056 short tons from the previous period [8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that 2025 was a year of recovery for energy metals, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel entering an upward cycle after a period of bottoming out [9][15][17] - The lithium sector is expected to see a significant increase in demand driven by energy storage, with projections for global lithium supply reaching 215.9 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 26% [25][29] - Cobalt supply is anticipated to tighten due to the implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a projected shortage of 3.6 million tons in 2026 [26][12] Group 2 - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize as Indonesia tightens its nickel ore export quotas, with a focus on maintaining high-grade nickel resources [27][12] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zangge Mining, Zhongmin Resources, and Yongxing Materials in the lithium sector, and Liqin Resources and Huayou Cobalt in the nickel-cobalt sector [12][28] - The overall industry outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of a comprehensive price increase across energy metals due to supply constraints and rising demand [12][11]

Group 1 - Nvidia has received a regulatory easing from the US for exporting H200 chips to China, and the company clarified it will not require customers to pay for undelivered products despite previous rumors of strict payment terms [2] - Rongbai Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL worth over 120 billion yuan for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, expected to supply 3.05 million tons from Q1 2026 to 2031, positively impacting future performance [2] - Microsoft is integrating ChatGPT into Office 365 to enhance productivity and collaborating with Walmart to strengthen AI recommendation systems on its e-commerce platform, reinforcing its position in enterprise software and cloud computing [2] Group 2 - Debon Logistics plans to voluntarily delist, with a cash option registration date set for February 6, 2026, and the stock will resume trading on January 14, 2026, aiming to optimize its capital structure [5] - Fulin Precision plans to raise 3.175 billion yuan through a private placement to CATL at 13.62 yuan per share for a project to produce 500,000 tons of high-end energy storage lithium iron phosphate, deepening cooperation in the new energy sector [5] - Baiwei Storage expects a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 427.19% to 520.22%, driven by recovering demand in the storage chip market [5][6] Group 3 - TCL Technology anticipates a net profit growth of 169% to 191% in 2025, primarily due to improved profitability in its semiconductor display business and rapid development in the new energy photovoltaic sector [3] - TCL Zhonghuan expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan in 2025, a reduction from a loss of 9.818 billion yuan the previous year, with positive operating cash flow [6] - Pudong Development Bank projects a net profit of 50.017 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.52%, driven by improved asset quality and steady growth in intermediary business income [7]

Group 1 - Rio Tinto is considering the acquisition of Glencore, which could result in the formation of the world's largest mining company valued at over $200 billion [1] - JPMorgan and two other advisers have been engaged by Rio Tinto to assist in this potential acquisition [1] Group 2 - The deal represents a significant consolidation in the mining industry, potentially reshaping market dynamics and competitive landscape [1] - The acquisition, if successful, would enhance Rio Tinto's portfolio and operational scale, positioning it as a dominant player in the global mining sector [1]

Investment Climate - Britain is becoming increasingly unattractive for investment, likened to Venezuela due to Labour's stringent net zero policies affecting the oil industry [7][8] - The chief executive of engineering group Hunting criticized the UK government's approach to carbon reduction, suggesting it has made the country "uninvestable" [7][8] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have surged to two-month highs, with Brent crude reaching approximately $66 per barrel and WTI exceeding $61, driven by geopolitical tensions and drone attacks on oil tankers in the Black Sea [3][6][26] - The price of Brent crude rose by 2.9% following Donald Trump's comments urging Iranians to take action against their regime, contributing to market volatility [6][26] - Protests in Iran have led to a 14% increase in European gas prices over three days, marking the largest rise since March [5][54] Stock Market Reactions - US stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.7% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down by 0.2% amid persistent inflation concerns [1][28] - Oil companies such as BP, Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil saw stock price increases as oil prices rose, contributing to a boost in the FTSE 100 index [2][9][56] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks are at an all-time high, with analysts predicting potential spikes in oil prices due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East [4][26] - The US has imposed 25% tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran, which could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [16][73]

Core Insights - Cobalt production is experiencing significant growth due to rising demand and substantial investments, with global output expected to reach 330 kilotonnes in 2025, marking an 8.0% increase [1] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is projected to maintain its dominance in the cobalt market, accounting for approximately 72% of global output in 2025 [1] - Indonesia is emerging as a key player, expected to produce 59.8 kilotonnes of cobalt in 2026, reflecting a 21.2% increase from the previous year [4] Group 1: Global Cobalt Production - Global cobalt output is anticipated to grow by 6.9% to reach 352.8 kilotonnes in 2026, driven by supply increases from the DRC and Indonesia [2] - The DRC's cobalt mine output is projected to grow by 4.4% to reach 247.7 kilotonnes in 2026, supported by high-grade feed from Glencore's Mutanda and the Musonoi underground project [3] Group 2: DRC's Cobalt Supply - The DRC's leading position in cobalt supply is bolstered by vast resources and strategic partnerships with Chinese mining companies, facilitating large-scale mine development [2] - Key contributors to DRC's production include China Molybdenum's Kisanfu and Tenke Fungurume Mining operations, which are expected to sustain positive production momentum [3] Group 3: Indonesia's Cobalt Growth - Indonesia's rise in cobalt production is largely attributed to investments in high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities, with new projects like Pomalaa and Morowali set to commence in 2026 [4] - The ongoing ramp-up of Zhejiang Huayou's Huafei Cobalt-Nickel Project and expansions at Ningbo Lygend Mining's PT Halmahera Persada Lygend Project will further support Indonesia's growth trajectory [4]

Group 1 - Rio Tinto (RIO.US) is seeking a deal with Glencore and has hired several banks, including Evercore and JPMorgan, to assist in the negotiations [1] - The potential merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore could create the world's largest mining company with a market value exceeding $200 billion, marking the largest deal in the industry's history [3] - The discussions come amid soaring copper prices, which have recently surpassed $13,000 per ton due to supply constraints and increased demand from sectors like artificial intelligence and defense [3] Group 2 - A successful merger would significantly boost Rio Tinto's copper production and provide access to the coveted Collahuasi copper mine in Chile [4] - Rio Tinto's new CEO, Simon Trott, is focused on cost-cutting and simplifying operations, indicating a willingness to pursue acquisitions more openly [4] - Glencore, while primarily attractive for its copper assets, is also the world's largest coal trader and has significant operations in nickel and zinc, raising questions about Rio Tinto's interest in acquiring all of Glencore's assets [4]