聚核拓新，链动未来 引言：当"双碳"战略指引能源转型方向，当核电成为保障国家能源安全的关键力量，一条安全、高效、创新的核产业链，既是产业高质量发展的根基，更是 多方价值共创的载体。 12月23日，由中国核能电力股份有限公司（简称：中国核电，股票代码：601985）主办，上市公司企业家交流中心（简称"上企中心"）联合主办，清华 EMBA产业联盟协办的"聚核拓新·链动未来——核产业链上市公司交流会"在北京上企中心圆满举办。 美国 - r y ri 22 6 f 本次活动汇集了核能产业链的核心力量。中核集团总经理助理、中国核电党委书记、董事长卢铁忠及中国核电副总经理陈富彬带领公司核心高管团队亲临现 场。上企中心邀请了30余位来自核产业链上市公司、顶尖学府及券商的企业家、高管与专家共聚一堂，围绕核能产业高质量发展、产业链协同、创新与资本 融合等关键议题，展开了深度、务实、前瞻的闭门对话。 o A 1 THE LEASE THE - 323 Child of the Press Real Proper River State Card Corporation of A. / tt The Research Proper ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a projected decline in China's wire rod (coil) production in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% to 10.86 million tons, despite a slight cumulative growth of 0.4% in the first ten months of 2025 [1] Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of wire rod (coil) in China from January to October 2025 is expected to reach 11.3 million tons [1] - The report titled "2025-2031 China High-Speed Wire Rod Industry Market Development Scale and Industry Demand Assessment" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market trends and demands in the wire rod industry [1] Company Insights - Listed companies in the wire rod sector include Hangang Co., Ltd. (600126), Shagang Co., Ltd. (002075), Yongxing Materials (002756), Fangda Special Steel (600507), Linggang Co., Ltd. (600231), Fushun Special Steel (600399), *ST Xigang (600117), Liugang Co., Ltd. (601003), Magang Co., Ltd. (600808), and New Steel Co., Ltd. (600782) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant increases in various metal prices and a notable performance of the Huabao ETF (159876) since its low point in April 2023, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][6][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao ETF (159876) has seen a cumulative increase of 91.08% since its low on April 8, 2023, with a recent intraday gain of 1.25% [1]. - The ETF has broken through its historical high since its listing, suggesting a potential buying signal, with a net subscription of 3 million units reported [1]. - The non-ferrous metals index has shown varied annual performance, with a notable decline in 2022 and 2023, but a positive outlook for 2024 [3]. Group 2: Key Stocks Performance - Major stocks in the sector include Zhongkuang Resources, which rose by 6.20%, and Xinye Silver Tin, which increased by 5.76% [4]. - Other notable performers include Yongxing Materials and Huayou Cobalt, both rising over 3% [3][4]. - The overall market capitalization and trading volume of these stocks indicate robust investor interest and activity [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Precious metals like gold and silver have reached historical highs, with platinum and copper also hitting significant price milestones [6][7]. - The ongoing global monetary easing and strategic importance of non-ferrous metals are expected to drive prices higher, with forecasts suggesting a bullish trend in the coming years [7][8]. - The Chinese government's policy initiatives aim to stabilize and grow the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with prices likely to continue rising [8]. - The Huabao ETF is positioned to provide diversified exposure across various metals, making it a suitable option for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector experienced a rise of 1.58% on December 23, with Shengxin Lithium Energy leading the gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3919.98, up 0.07% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13368.99, up 0.27% [1] - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed significant increases, with Shengxin Lithium Energy rising by 4.78% to a closing price of 35.92 [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Major gainers included: - Shengxin Lithium Energy: 4.78% increase, closing at 35.92 [1] - Land Electric Mining: 4.49% increase, closing at 14.66 [1] - Tianqi Lithium: 3.45% increase, closing at 55.78 [1] - Other notable performers included: - Yongxing Materials: 2.93% increase, closing at 50.54 [1] - Rongjie Co., Ltd.: 2.61% increase, closing at 52.68 [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 8.01 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 4.9 billion yuan [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Tianqi Lithium: 4.13 billion yuan net inflow from institutional investors [3] - Ganfeng Lithium: 3.05 billion yuan net inflow from institutional investors [3] - Shengxin Lithium Energy: 1.84 billion yuan net inflow from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yongxing Materials has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 35.61%, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the specialty metals sector, particularly in lithium and special alloys [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 23, Yongxing Materials' stock rose by 2.02%, reaching 50.09 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.81 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.05%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 27.004 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 7.63% increase over the last five trading days, a 5.65% increase over the last twenty days, and a substantial 48.13% increase over the last sixty days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) twice this year, with the most recent appearance on October 31 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yongxing Materials reported a revenue of 5.547 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 532 million CNY, down 45.25% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 5.662 billion CNY in dividends, with 4.362 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yongxing Materials was 52,500, a decrease of 2.28% from the previous period, with an average of 7,401 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.33% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 31.3495 million shares, which increased by 25.9464 million shares compared to the previous period [3]. - The sixth-largest circulating shareholder is Southern CSI 500 ETF, holding 4.7056 million shares, which decreased by 104,900 shares from the previous period [3].

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：厂库扩容便利仓单交割 | 4 | | 工业硅：以逢高做空思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：新增厂库额度，关注情绪面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,260 | 4,080 | 6,570 | 3,230 | 5,8 ...

郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 23 日 人民币升值，"结汇潮"的助推——汇率双周报系列之六 10 月中旬以来，美元小幅贬值背景下、人民币大幅升值；这一非对称的涨 势引发了市场对"年终结汇"的热议。本轮升值是不是结汇推动、后续人 民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，供参考。 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3917 | 0.69 | 2.15 | 1.28 | | 深证综指 | 2493 | 1.13 | 5.16 | 1.56 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.86 | 3.48 | 20.31 | | 中盘指数 | 1.42 | 6.66 | 29.76 | | 小盘指数 | 1.12 | 5.06 | 25.03 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | ...

Group 1 - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong performance, with companies like Zhongtung High-tech rising over 9%, and others such as Zhongmin Resources, Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium also seeing significant gains [1] - The spot silver price has surpassed $66, reaching a new historical high, indicating a bullish trend in the metal market [2] - Dongxing Securities highlights that the global mining project's upstream capital expenditure environment is deteriorating, and geopolitical disturbances are increasing, leading to a tightening supply-demand structure in the metal industry [2] Group 2 - The metal inventory cycle has been in a long-term depletion trend since 2013, with global visible metal inventories at approximately the 25th percentile level since 1990 as of Q4 this year [2] - The continued weakening of visible inventories suggests a rigid supply characteristic in the global metal market, reinforcing the logic of strong pricing amid low inventory [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Mining Index covers various sub-sectors, providing a diversified investment approach to mitigate price volatility risks of individual commodities [2]

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations with LME copper up by 0.36%, SHFE copper down by 0.96%, and COMEX copper up by 2.33% [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate for November was 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while the CPI was below expectations, leading to increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, which supports copper prices [1] - A long-term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate was set at $0/ton and $0/lb for 2026, indicating a tight supply situation in the copper mining sector [1] - Copper inventories increased, with LME copper at 160,000 tons, COMEX copper at 462,000 short tons, and SHFE copper at 96,000 tons, showing changes of -3.32%, +2.57%, and +7.18% respectively [1] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods was 63.06%, a decrease of 1.48 percentage points [1] - Long-term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, with potential price increases as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic aluminum inventories saw a slight increase, while aluminum prices remained high, with SHFE aluminum down by 0.54% to 22,000 yuan/ton [2] - The price of alumina fell by 1.08% to 2,750 yuan/ton, with metallurgical-grade alumina production capacity at 88.085 million tons/year and a weekly operating rate of 79.85% [2] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a shortage next year due to stable demand growth and limited supply, as domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaches its ceiling [2] Group 3: Lithium - Lithium prices are entering an upward cycle, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 3.33% to 97,700 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate up by 8.03% to $1,318/ton [3] - Lithium carbonate production increased to 22,000 tons, with SMM weekly inventory down by 0.9%, marking 18 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [3] - The demand for lithium battery materials remains strong, with phosphate iron lithium production in November at 413,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44% [3] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand growth exceeds expectations and supply-demand dynamics shift [3] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with MB cobalt up by 0.51% to $24.45/lb and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.93% to 422,000 yuan/ton [4] - The Democratic Republic of Congo lifted its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing a quota system instead, but the export process for many companies remains slow [4] - Structural tightness in cobalt raw materials is expected to persist, with domestic supplies likely arriving only after March next year due to shipping delays and holiday impacts [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Lithium prices have once again broken through, indicating a potential second round of upward movement in equity [2] - The expected recovery in supply and demand fundamentals is strengthening, with the cancellation of mining licenses for 27 expired mining rights having a minimal impact on actual supply [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in lithium equity given the current price misalignment [4] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Inflation data is lower than expected, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts, leading to a continued upward trend in gold and silver [4] - The report anticipates significant gold purchases by central banks towards the end of the year, driving gold prices higher [4] - Silver is expected to outperform due to macroeconomic conditions and low inventory levels, with a focus on silver stocks' elasticity [4] Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum are expected to see a spring rally, supported by enhanced interest rate cut expectations [4] - Recent data shows a rise in copper and aluminum prices, with LME three-month copper up by 2.8% and aluminum by 2.4% [4] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors still have low valuations, making them attractive for investment [4] Energy and Minor Metals - The report highlights a turning point for lithium rights in 2026, with a strong demand cycle anticipated [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are expected to see a revaluation, with significant improvements in company performance [4] - The cobalt market is projected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices expected to rise significantly [4]