1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 19, the liquidity remained loose, the bond market continued to be bullish, the convertible bond market followed the equity market and continued to rise, most convertible bond issues increased, yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally increased, and 10-year government bond yields in major European economies generally rose [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing that all departments should implement the work to consolidate and expand the positive economic trend [4]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, together with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, issued notices to support overseas institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase business to deepen the opening-up of the exchange bond market [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for comments on the Asset-Liability Management Measures for Insurance Companies to strengthen supervision of the insurance industry's asset-liability [5]. - In November 2025, cross-border payments remained active, and securities investment fund flows became more stable, with a net inflow of $17.8 billion in cross-border funds from non-bank sectors [6]. 3.1.2 International News - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, and may continue to raise rates depending on economic and price conditions [7]. - New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to cut rates further, strengthening the market's expectation of a short-term pause in rate cuts [8]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On December 19, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and international natural gas prices turned up. WTI January crude oil futures rose 0.91% to $56.66 per barrel, Brent February crude oil futures rose 1.09% to $60.47 per barrel, COMEX February gold futures rose 0.52% to $4,387.3 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 2.05% to $4.026 per ounce [9][10]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On December 19, the central bank conducted 7-day reverse repurchase operations worth 56.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% and 14-day reverse repurchase operations worth 100 billion yuan. With 120.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital injection was 35.7 billion yuan [12]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On December 19, the liquidity remained loose. DR001 fell 0.11bp to 1.271%, and DR007 rose 0.21bp to 1.441% [13]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On December 19, boosted by LPR rate cut expectations, the bond market continued to be bullish. By 20:00, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond active issue 250016 fell 0.70bp to 1.8350%, and the yield on the 10-year CDB bond active issue 250215 fell 1.55bp to 1.8920% [15]. - **Bond Tendering**: The issuance scale of the 3-year and 5-year Treasury bonds was 97 billion yuan and 99 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding winning yields of 1.3554% and 1.5603% [17]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Trading Anomalies**: On December 19, the trading prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "19 Shanghai Shimao MTN001" and "20 Shanghai Shimao MTN001" rose by more than 26% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies had events such as debt restructuring, being listed as an executor, being criticized for violations, and canceling bond issuances [20]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On December 19, the three major A-share indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed the equity market. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38%, 0.27%, and 0.52% respectively. Most convertible bond issues rose [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On December 19, Changgao Electric's convertible bond issuance was approved, some convertible bonds proposed to lower the conversion price or were about to meet the conditions, and some were about to be redeemed early or met the early redemption conditions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On December 19, yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose. The 2-year and 10-year yields rose 2bp and 4bp to 3.48% and 4.16% respectively. The 2/10-year yield spread widened 2bp to 68bp, and the 5/30-year yield spread narrowed 2bp to 112bp. The 10-year TIPS break-even inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.24% [22][23][25]. - **European Bond Market**: On December 19, 10-year government bond yields in major European economies generally rose. German, French, Italian, Spanish, and British 10-year yields rose 4bp, 5bp, 4bp, 5bp, and 5bp respectively [26]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on December 19, some Chinese dollar bonds had significant price changes, with some rising and some falling [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [8]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a gradual recovery, with expectations for increased policy support to boost confidence and sales [2][3]. - Recent mortgage interest subsidy policies have been implemented in various cities, but their effectiveness is limited due to strict conditions and low subsidy rates [16][17]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market remains cautious, with significant declines in both new and second-hand housing transactions reported [6][19]. Summary by Sections Mortgage Subsidy Policies - Various cities have introduced mortgage interest subsidies ranging from 1% to 2%, with limited effectiveness observed in boosting sales [16][18]. - The subsidies are often restricted to new purchases made within a specific timeframe, typically 3 to 6 months after the policy announcement [17][21]. - The total subsidy amounts are relatively low, with caps around 10,000 to 40,000 yuan depending on the city [17][18]. Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector has underperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.41% compared to the benchmark [22][23]. - The credit bond issuance in the real estate sector has seen a net financing deficit, indicating ongoing financial challenges [43][44]. - The REITs market has also faced declines, with the index down 2.60% this week, reflecting broader market trends [45][55]. Transaction Trends - New housing transaction volumes have decreased significantly, with year-on-year declines of approximately 33% reported in both new and second-hand markets [6][19]. - The land supply and transaction volumes in major cities show mixed trends, with a decrease in supply but an increase in transaction areas [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on three areas for potential investment: commercial real estate, second-hand brokerage, and property services [19].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何理解高质量发展的政策导向和内涵？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 房地产行业高质量发展，要系统性处理好长期和短期、顶层设计与因城施策、市场和保障、增 量和存量、促发展与防风险等关系，短期、因城施策和防风险等维度的政策指向依然比较清晰， 需求端的支撑不可或缺。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中央：住建部长发表署名文章指出，党的十八大以来，我国房地产市场快速发展，城镇人均住 房建筑面积超过 40 平方米，户均住房超过 1.1 套，建设各类保障性住房和棚改安置住房 6800 多万套。全面落实推动房地产高质量发展的重点任务，提出几点要求：优化保障性住房供给， 完善以公租房、保租房和配售型保障房为主的多层次住房保障体系；科学安排土地供应、引导 配置金融资源，坚持因城施策、精准施策、一城 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the valuation reassessment of shopping centers and the new opportunities in the housing market [2]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the transition of the real estate industry from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on product quality and service enhancement while maintaining market balance [2][26]. - Recent data shows a rebound in new and second-hand home transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities reaching 3.095 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26.3% [2][3]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises amid a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a reassessment of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.095 million square meters, up 26.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 24.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 50.5% [3][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in December show a 30% year-on-year decline, with first and second-tier cities down 29.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 38.8% [5][6]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.192 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.4%, but a year-on-year decline of 32.9% for December [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.28 million square meters of new homes, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market through three main measures: controlling supply, promoting enterprise transformation, and reforming foundational systems [26][29]. - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Shandong, are implementing targeted policies to mitigate financial risks and stimulate housing demand through initiatives like "old-for-new" housing exchanges [26][30]. Company Updates - Poly Developments plans to issue 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, while Vanke's proposals for extending medium-term notes were not approved [36][37]. - Yuexiu Property secured a 50 million HKD loan from a bank, with a maximum term of 18 months [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the transition of the real estate industry from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on product quality and service enhancement [3][29]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [3][29]. - The report suggests that while the real estate market continues to stabilize, core cities are expected to recover sooner [3]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 3.095 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26.3% [4][6]. - Year-to-date, the total transaction volume for December is 7.416 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30% [6][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities was 6.866 million square meters, down 29.4% year-on-year [6][7]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 13 key cities saw a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.192 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.4% [12]. - The cumulative transaction volume for December is 3.29 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.28 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 1.07 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.83 [22]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 90.354 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights the Ministry of Housing's commitment to promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, with a focus on maintaining market balance and stability [29][30]. - The Central Financial Office has proposed three measures to stabilize the real estate market for 2026, including controlling supply and supporting the transformation of real estate companies [30][32]. - Local policies, such as Shenzhen's focus on risk management for key enterprises and Shandong's "old-for-new" housing policy, are also noted [30][32].

Industry Overview - The real estate market is entering a phase of stabilization after significant adjustments, with signs of recovery becoming evident as new home sales decline at a slower rate compared to previous periods. In the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing reached 78,702 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, compared to a 12.9% decline in 2024 [10][4][16] - The new home price decline has narrowed, with the average price drop in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreasing to 2.6% year-on-year by November 2025. First-tier cities performed better than second and third-tier cities in both year-on-year and month-on-month price changes [13][20] - The inventory of residential properties is being effectively reduced, with the narrow inventory (completed but unsold area) decreasing for nine consecutive months, leading to a narrowing of the inventory cycle to 20.5 months [16][17] Policy Environment - The central government continues to emphasize the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, implementing policies to support recovery through measures such as reducing interest rates and optimizing credit conditions. Local governments are also taking targeted actions to stimulate market demand [4][52] - The policy framework is evolving from "stabilizing the decline" to "high-quality development," focusing on both revitalizing existing stock and optimizing new supply. The construction of high-quality housing has been elevated to a strategic priority [51][52] 2026 Outlook - Key indicators for the real estate sector are expected to gradually stabilize and improve marginally in 2026. Under a neutral assumption, new construction area is projected to be 508 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, while sales area is expected to be 835 million square meters, down 6.4% [4][10] - The overall development investment is anticipated to be 7.64 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year decline, but with a narrowing of the decline compared to 2025 [4][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable developers with a strong presence in core cities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and New City Holdings. In the property management sector, companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service are recommended [4][10]

Group 1: Harbin Ice and Snow World - The 27th Harbin Ice and Snow World will officially open on December 17, 2025, with a theme of "Ice and Snow Fairy Tale" [1] - This year's event is the largest in scale, created by thousands of ice construction workers [1] - Ticket prices are set at a promotional price of 298 yuan per adult from December 17 to December 23, 2025, reverting to the original price of 328 yuan starting December 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Overseas Chinese Town A (OCT A) - In November 2025, OCT A reported a total visitor count of 6.97 million for its cultural tourism enterprises, an 8% increase year-on-year [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, the total number of visitors was 73.98 million, a 1% decrease compared to the previous year [1] - In November 2025, the company achieved a contract sales area of 86,000 square meters, a 61% year-on-year decrease, and a contract sales amount of 1.2 billion yuan, down 65% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Beijing Haichang Ocean Park - The Beijing Haichang Ocean Park project has entered the construction phase, with a total building area of approximately 160,000 square meters [2] - The park will feature a combination of ecological, educational, interactive, performance, artistic, and hotel functions, expected to be completed and operational by 2027 [2] - The project is a collaboration between Haichang Ocean Park and Beijing Tongzhou Urban Construction Operation Group [2] Group 4: Taiyuan Plaza and China Resources Mixc Life - Taiyuan Plaza and China Resources Mixc Life have signed a cooperation agreement for the first Mixc Tian Di in North China, located in Taiyuan City [2] - The commercial complex will cover an area of approximately 445,000 square meters, integrating a "block + box mall" innovative model [2] - The project will feature international luxury brands, high-end dining, and cultural art spaces [2] Group 5: New City Holdings - New City Holdings has officially launched two innovative commercial product lines: "New Yuehui" and "Yinxiang" [2] - "New Yuehui" is positioned as an "urban vitality life aggregation body," while "Yinxiang" focuses on "enjoying slow time in urban streets," aimed at creating a "slow life block" [2] Group 6: Guangdong Province - Guangdong Province has issued measures to promote the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism, focusing on high-quality development [3] - The measures include 27 specific actions to enhance the integration of various tourism-related sectors [3] - The province aims to develop ecological health resorts and promote traditional Chinese medicine health tourism [3] Group 7: Beijing Tourism - In the first ten months of the year, Beijing received over 300 million visitors, with tourism spending exceeding 600 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 7.2% respectively [4][5] - Cultural and tourism consumption has become a significant growth driver for the construction of an international consumption center city [5]

Core Insights - The policy environment for the real estate sector in 2025 has been relatively subdued, with expectations for a more aggressive policy approach in 2026 to stabilize the market [5] - The central economic work conference in December outlined a focus on stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing measures such as targeted policies, inventory reduction, and encouraging the construction of quality housing [5][18] - Key policy measures anticipated for 2026 include interest rate cuts, mortgage subsidies, and reforms to the housing provident fund system to stimulate demand and support price stabilization [5][20][21] Market Overview - In 2025, new home sales continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10% to 80.77 million square meters as of December 6, reflecting a significant drop of approximately 54% compared to the same period in 2021 [11] - The price index for new homes in 70 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6% in October 2025, marking a continuous reduction in price for 12 months [11] - The second-hand housing market has seen a price decline of nearly 38% since 2021 in major cities, with transaction volumes showing slight growth in recent years [16] 2026 Industry Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to face continued downward pressure, with projected declines in sales area and amount of 8% and 9% respectively, alongside new construction and completion area declines of 12% and 15% [17][27] - The anticipated policy measures are expected to alleviate some of the downward pressure on prices and sales, with a focus on targeted interventions [5][18] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-quality developers, commercial real estate operations, and real estate brokerage platforms as potential investment opportunities [47] - High-quality developers are characterized by low historical burdens, strategic repositioning in core cities, and sufficient impairment provisions [48] - Commercial real estate, particularly shopping centers, is expected to maintain stable growth despite economic slowdowns, while brokerage platforms are positioned to benefit from market recovery and policy implementation [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The REITs issuance industry is expanding, with commercial REITs being recognized as an independent category. New policies have been introduced to support the issuance of REITs for commercial office facilities, four-star hotels, sports venues, and urban renewal projects [4][12][13] - As of the end of November, the total number of C-REITs listed funds reached 77, with a total scale of 219.885 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.31% month-on-month. The market's average daily turnover rate was low, indicating reduced market activity [4][17] - The average distribution rate for C-REITs remained stable at 5.67%, with a slight increase from the previous month. The spread between the distribution rate and the 30-year treasury yield was steady [4][17] Policy Review and Market Outlook - The policy landscape for C-REITs has been updated, with the introduction of new asset categories for issuance. The government is actively supporting the expansion of REITs to include more private investment projects [12][13] - The issuance of C-REITs is expected to accelerate, with a total of 10.98 billion yuan raised from a new project in November, despite a decrease in the overall issuance scale compared to October [17][20] Market Performance Review - The C-REITs market experienced a decline in the comprehensive income index by 0.75% in November, with a low average turnover rate of 0.50%. The market's performance was affected by high valuations and low investor interest [4][17] - Notable increases in specific REITs were observed in sectors such as consumption, highways, and affordable rental housing, with some REITs showing gains of over 4% [4][17] Valuation and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the sector, such as Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, have been rated as "Buy" with reasonable values set for their stocks. For instance, Vanke A has a reasonable value of 7.64 yuan per share, while China Overseas Development is valued at 16.02 HKD per share [5]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 中央经济工作会议明确化解风险，稳定楼市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/12/6-25/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.3%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.7%、 沪深 300 下跌 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.6%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分 别为：三湘印象(+12.1%)、南都物业(+7.6%)、京基智农(+5.1%)、苏州高新 (+4.2%)、世联行(+2.9%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：海泰发展(-18.2%)、ST 中迪 (-15.5%)、*ST 阳光(-11.7%)、中天服务(-11.0%)、*ST 荣控(-11.0%)。 联系人 板块表现： 数据跟踪： ...