来源：喜娜AI 一、国际新闻 当地时间12月19日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体声明称，美军正对叙利亚境内极端组织"伊斯兰 国"（ISIS）据点发动猛烈打击，以回应其杀害美国人员的行为，叙利亚过渡政府对此表示"完全支 持"[1]。 美国国防部长赫格塞斯随后证实，此次"鹰眼打击行动"针对ISIS武装分子、基础设施及武器库，是对12 月13日美军遇袭事件的直接回应[2]，纽约时报亦报道了美军打击叙利亚境内ISIS目标的消息[3]。 美国金融市场方面，周五美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.38%，纳指涨1.31%，标普500指数涨 0.89%，大型科技股表现分化，美光科技、甲骨文、AMD涨超6%，英伟达、博通涨超3%，而Meta、特 斯拉小幅收跌[4]。 其中，美光科技股价盘中触及历史新高，最终上涨7.8%[5]；甲骨文因与TikTok签订美国合资公司协 议，开盘涨4.0%，盘中最大涨幅达6.2%[6][7]。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.87%，复朗集团、禾赛科技、小鹏汽车分别上涨12.50%、7.14%、6.80% [8]。 美联储理事米兰则称，美联储尚未开启新一轮量化宽松，若出现职位空缺，特朗普可能提名其任职[17 ...

经历了11月的AI抛售，此次AI热门股的再度下挫主导了这波下跌。 尽管周四（18日）美股有所反弹，但市场仍弥漫着焦虑。周三时，纳斯达克指数1.9%的跌幅是18个交 易日以来最大的单日跌幅。"AI杠杆王"甲骨文（ORCL）股价下跌5.4%，跌至六个月低点，自9月高点 下跌45%；此前备受追捧的新晋"AI卖铲人"博通因一份财报而重挫，截至周三时周跌幅高达近9.4%，较 前期高位下跌约20%。据第一财经了解，近期做空规模⼤幅上升并以对冲基⾦为主，出现⾃5⽉以来最 ⼤的⼀次增幅。 美国资产管理公司Amont Partners董事总经理李肇宇（Rob Li）对第一财经表示，除了杠杆率高，甲骨 文的动荡主要受到OpenAI融资能力的影响，9月时引发甲骨文暴涨的巨额公司未实现履约义务（RPO， 尚未确认的已签约收入），在这5233亿美元RPO中，来自OpenAI的合同规模就占到3000亿美元；博通 的暴跌则是源于2026财年指引上调缺乏上行空间，加之大家担心谷歌今后做自己自有定制方案会吃掉博 通业务。尽管实际情况并无需过度担忧，但由于对冲基金杠杆较高且估值不便宜，AI热门股容易遭 遇"杀估值"。 圣诞前的一周，华尔街空头罕 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US is making a series of wrong policies and is starting to contract globally, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair must believe in "significant rate cuts" and mortgage loan rates will further decline, and he previously asked to cut rates to 1% [1]. - The Bank of Japan is focusing on its subsequent policy path, needing to balance multiple goals [1]. - Trump's account plan is to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks, which could grow to about $5800 at 18 and about $600,000 at retirement, and over $300,000 at 18 with additional family investment [1]. - PJM's latest electricity supply auction will cost consumers $16.4 billion, with the daily cost per megawatt rising from $329.17 to $333.44 [1]. - The global platinum market will face a third - consecutive - year supply shortage in 2025, with a gap of 850,000 ounces and limited supply growth in the future [1]. - Hedge fund Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business due to asset price fluctuations [1]. - Early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years, and the absorbing demand from ETFs and institutions has faded [1]. - India has become the most active AI consumer market globally, but local startups face greater competition [1]. - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion of short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2]. - Some traders are betting on a Q1 rate - cut in the changing bond - option market [2]. - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending gap in the US [2]. - Japan's 10 - year Treasury yield reached its highest since July 2007 [2]. - AI - driven investment will expand the credit market, with investment - grade bond issuance expected to reach $2.25 trillion [2]. - Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2]. - NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2]. - AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, raising concerns about economic slowdown [2].

Core Viewpoint - FedEx has unexpectedly raised its full-year profit and sales outlook, indicating positive results from cost-cutting and streamlining efforts as domestic demand in the U.S. improves, suggesting a higher probability of a "Goldilocks" economic soft landing in 2026 [1][7]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2026, FedEx adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a range of $17.80 to $19, raising the lower end of its previous forecast, with the midpoint exceeding Wall Street's average expectation of $18.28 [1][3]. - The company anticipates a sales growth of 5% to 6% for the fiscal year, also raising the lower end of its previous forecast, which was 4% to 6%, and this outlook is stronger than the average expected growth of about 4% from Wall Street analysts [1][3]. Operational Changes - FedEx is undergoing a significant restructuring of its delivery network by merging its historically independent ground and air freight systems, which is expected to yield $1 billion in permanent cost savings in 2026 [2][3]. - The company reported an adjusted EPS of $4.82 for the second fiscal quarter, significantly higher than the previous year's $4.05 and above the average analyst expectation of approximately $4.12 [2][3]. Market Position and Economic Indicator - FedEx is often viewed as a barometer for the broader economy due to its extensive operations across retail, consumer, and industrial sectors, making its performance a key indicator of economic health [5][6]. - The company's total sales for the second fiscal quarter were approximately $23.5 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 7%, surpassing the average analyst expectation of about $22.9 billion [3][5]. Industry Context - FedEx's strong performance and outlook are seen as supportive of the narrative of a "Goldilocks" economic environment in 2026, characterized by moderate growth without overheating [7][8]. - The company has been affected by the grounding of MD-11 aircraft, which constitutes about 4% of its fleet, raising concerns about potential disruptions during peak delivery seasons, but actual growth data indicates effective management of these challenges [3][4].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.38% [1] - Notable stock movements included Nvidia rising nearly 2%, Tesla increasing over 3%, Micron Technology up 10%, and Trump Media Technology Group soaring 41.9%, while Dingdong Maicai fell 7% [1] Commodity Prices - WTI January crude oil futures rose 0.38% to $56.15 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $4363.9 per ounce [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. November unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.7%, below expectations, while the unadjusted core CPI year-on-year was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021 [3] - The U.S. National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated significant room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank maintained its three key interest rates and projected a GDP growth rate of 1.4% and an inflation rate of 2.1% for 2025 [5] - The Bank of England voted 5-4 to lower the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%, with Governor Bailey stating that the current monetary policy stance remains restrictive [6] Corporate Developments - Trump Media Technology Group plans to merge with TAE Technologies in an all-stock transaction, aiming to start site selection and construction of a fusion power plant by 2026 [7] - Oracle received approval for power supply at its data center in Michigan in collaboration with OpenAI [17] - Nike's after-hours stock fell by 10% as the CFO indicated that the business will face more challenges; Q2 net profit dropped 32% to $792 million, while revenue increased by 0.6% to $12.43 billion [18] Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold futures will rise to $4900 per ounce by 2026, with average prices for Brent and WTI crude oil at $56 per barrel and $52 per barrel, respectively [11] Currency and Cryptocurrency - The offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar was reported at 7.0327, an increase of 75 points from the previous New York close [12] - CME Bitcoin futures main contract fell 0.45% to $85,575 [13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting a recent downturn in momentum and a shift in market sentiment towards cyclical stocks and AI stocks [1][11]. Core Insights - The report discusses a significant rotation in the market, with a focus on the leadership and expanding participation of artificial intelligence companies. There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the sustainability of AI's leadership position [11]. - Despite a recent decline in the S&P 500 index, the non-essential consumer/retail sector has seen gains, driven by a strong performance in the GSPUCYDE currency trading basket [2]. - The report notes that not all cyclical stocks have suffered; for instance, LULU's stock surged by 11% due to better-than-expected earnings and an optimistic outlook for economic recovery [5]. - The financial sector has been a net buyer for three consecutive weeks, driven by bullish sentiment, while the energy sector has faced significant selling pressure due to low WTI crude oil prices [20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 1% to 6827 points, with the Nasdaq index dropping 191 basis points to 25196 points, primarily due to declines in AVGO and ORCL stocks [1]. - The report highlights that macro factors are driving capital flows, with ETFs tracking macro stocks accounting for 36% of total trading volume [1]. Sector Analysis - The healthcare, utilities, and financial sectors are noted as the highest net buyers, while communication services, information technology, and energy sectors are the highest net sellers [16]. - The energy sector has seen a rapid deterioration in market sentiment, particularly among refining stocks, with a noted decline in crack spreads [22]. Investor Behavior - The report indicates that two groups of investors had net sell-offs of approximately $1 billion each, with hedge funds primarily driven by selling in industrial and technology stocks [6][9]. - The report also mentions that the volatility index (VIX) is expected to see increased selling pressure as investors hedge against volatility [10][12].

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.23%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.44% [1] - As of the latest update, the WTI crude oil price increased by 1.74% to $56.09 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.63% to $59.88 per barrel [3][4] Economic and Political News - President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech on Wednesday evening, focusing on his achievements and future priorities as he approaches the end of his first year back in the White House [5] - Trump is also interviewing Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller for the position of Fed Chair, indicating a swift process in selecting candidates [5] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may be more willing to cut interest rates next year than previously expected, influenced by recent labor market data [7] Company-Specific Developments - Amazon is in talks to invest $10 billion in OpenAI, which could enhance its competitive position against Nvidia in the AI chip market [8] - Warner Bros. plans to reject a hostile takeover bid from Paramount due to concerns over financing arrangements, favoring its existing agreement with Netflix [9] - Nvidia is collaborating with SK Hynix to develop AI-focused solid-state drives (SSDs) aimed at significantly improving performance metrics [10] - Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, is seeking to raise over $15 billion at a valuation nearing $100 billion, indicating strong investor interest in autonomous vehicle technology [11] - GlaxoSmithKline's new asthma drug has received FDA approval, which could position it as a significant product in the market [12]

美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高，美联 储降息预期上行。"家里有矿，年内涨超有色"的矿业ETF（561330）涨超2%，截至写稿年内涨幅近90%。 就业数据提振降息预期，提振矿业产业链 美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，好于预期，经济学家此前预计非农将增加4.5万人。而10月为减少10.5万人。9月 失业率为4.4%，11月升至4.6%，高于预期的4.5%。由于此前政府停摆导致无法事后补采数据，BLS未能发布10月失业率。 数据来源：ifind，银河证券 高盛预计美联储明年可能会比市场此前假设的更加愿意进一步降息。高盛全球银行与市场部首席策略官兼金融风险主管Josh Schiffrin表示，接下来的几份就 业报告将是决定美联储是否恢复宽松政策的关键因素，市场将特别关注失业率，而不是总体非农就业人数的增长。 展望未来，高盛预计宽松周期将延伸至2026年，联邦基金目标利率可能降至3%或更低。这一展望反映了其观点：通胀将继续温和，同时劳动力市场闲置度 增加，从而为美 ...

Market Movements - U.S. stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.03%, S&P 500 futures down 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.23% [1] - WTI crude oil is down 1.69% at $55.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 1.63% at $59.57 per barrel [2] - Major European indices are also experiencing declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.43%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.45%, France's CAC40 down 0.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.28% [2] Economic Data and Predictions - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.5%, the highest level since 2021 [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department will also release October retail sales data, with economists predicting a modest 0.1% growth in overall retail sales, while consumer spending growth is expected to accelerate when excluding auto and gas sales [3] Company News - Nvidia (NVDA.US) has acquired SchedMD to strengthen its AI ecosystem, focusing on open-source technology for large-scale computing tasks [8] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is planning to lay off 370 employees at its Luxembourg headquarters, part of a broader strategy to reduce bureaucracy and optimize resource allocation towards key strategic areas, including AI [9] - Ford (F.US) has announced a $19.5 billion charge to abandon its electric vehicle strategy, marking a significant shift towards traditional fuel and hybrid models [10] - Luminar (LAZR.US), a lidar technology company, has filed for bankruptcy after terminating its contract with Volvo, listing debts between $500 million and $1 billion [10] Analyst Predictions - UBS remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,300 points by June 2026 and 7,700 points by December 2026, driven by economic resilience, declining interest rates, and ongoing investments in AI [5] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for 2026 from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton, citing ongoing risks related to U.S. tariffs on copper imports [6] - Fitch Ratings has warned that U.S. banks have increased lending to non-bank financial institutions by 26% year-over-year, raising concerns about systemic risks [7]

盘前市场动向 1. 12月16日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.03%，标普500指数期货跌0.13%，纳指期货跌0.23%。 | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.43%，英国富时100指数跌0.45%，法国CAC40指数跌0.11%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.28%。 | | --- | | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌1.69%，报55.71美元/桶。布伦特原油跌1.63%，报59.57美元/桶。 | 英伟达(NVDA.US)收购SchedMD，以开源战略加固AI生态护城河。SchedMD的核心业务是提供大规模计算任务调度软件，这类任务往往需要占据数据中心 服务器的巨量资源。该公司的开源技术Slurm允许开发者与企业免费使用其基础软件，公司主要营收来源于工程实施与维护支持服务。本次交易财务条款尚 未披露，英伟达承诺将继续以开源形式分发SchedMD的软件产品。英伟达表示："支持最新英伟达硬件的Slurm系统已成为生成式AI关键基础设施的重要组成 部分，被基础模型开发者与AI构建者广泛用于管理模型训练和推理需求。"这家芯片巨头正通过加大开源技术投入、强化AI生态布局，以应对 ...