Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive financing cost of the real economy continues to decline, leading to a decrease in banks' net interest margins, raising concerns about where to invest in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Since the beginning of the year, deposit rates for large certificates of deposit (CDs) have dropped significantly, with over 40 banks reporting rates below 1% for terms under one year and many three-year rates below 2% [1][6] - The average three-year large CD rate among the six major banks is around 1.55%, down from over 3% three years ago, indicating a substantial decline in long-term deposit yields [1][6] - Smaller banks are also experiencing a convergence in rates, with some three-month products recently issued at rates between 0.93% and 0.95% [1][6] Group 2: Net Interest Margin and Banking Strategy - As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to a historical low of 1.42%, with large banks at 1.31%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability [2][7] - The reduction in high-cost liabilities, such as large CDs, is seen as a strategy to stabilize net interest margins amid declining financing costs for the real economy [2][7] Group 3: Future of Deposits and Market Reactions - A significant amount of deposits, estimated at around 50 trillion yuan, will reach maturity in 2026, raising questions about potential "deposit migration" as these funds face re-pricing [3][8] - Despite the low rates, many depositors are expected to keep their funds in the banking system due to their preference for stable returns and low risk, with a high deposit retention rate projected to remain above 90% [3][8] - Financial institutions are encouraged to balance business development with risk management as they navigate the upcoming re-pricing of deposits [4][9]

我有个朋友在银行工作，最近她给我讲了个扎心的故事。她来柜台的一位客户，老爷爷手里拿着三年前存的定期存款到期单，当时利率是百分之三点多，这 一次的利息足足有万把块钱。结果到期了去续存，银行给的新利率只有百分之一点五多，这一差，利息就少了将近五千块。老爷爷就坐在那儿一个劲地叹 气，说这钱放银行真的越来越不划算了。朋友问他怎么办，老爷爷说找不到地方存。这个场景在最近一两个月特别常见，因为从二零二六年二月开始，一场 巨大的定期存款到期潮马上就来了。 这不是危言耸听。根据中金公司的测算数据，今年将有约七十五万亿元的居民定期存款陆续到期，其中一年期以上的就有六十七万亿元。国信证券的预测是 五十七万亿元，华泰证券说的是五十万亿元。不管是哪个数字，咱们就能想象有多少人家里的钱在等着重新安排。二零二六年被业内称为近年少见的存款到 期大年，这个名号还是挺吓人的。 现在再看看银行怎么说的。工商银行、建设银行这些国有大行，一年期定期存款利率已经降到了百分之一点一，三年期是百分之一点五五。如果你存个十万 块钱定三年，一年的利息才差不多一千五，十年前这样的钱能拿到将近三千块。算上这些年的通货膨胀，你存银行的钱实际上是在贬值的。更过分的是 ...

Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Dynamics - The yen appreciated by 2.6% to 154.2 yen/USD over two trading days following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) meeting, driven by signals of potential "rate checks" from both the US and Japan[1] - Historical interventions by Japanese authorities typically follow "rate checks," suggesting a possible coordinated intervention could lead to further yen appreciation[2] - Since 2021, the average appreciation of the yen after interventions has been 1.4% within a week, indicating potential short-term gains from intervention[3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook and Risks - Historical data shows that interventions do not alter the long-term trend of the yen, which remains vulnerable to depreciation if the BOJ does not accelerate interest rate hikes[4] - The BOJ's delayed monetary policy has resulted in persistently low real interest rates, contributing to the yen's weakness[5] - Upcoming fiscal expansion measures, equivalent to 0.8% of Japan's GDP, may increase inflationary pressures, complicating the BOJ's policy decisions[5] - Risks include unexpected outcomes from the Japanese House of Representatives elections and inflation levels exceeding expectations, which could further impact the yen's stability[6]

证券研究报告 宏观视角 金价近五千、银价破一百的启示 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日│美国 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 2023 年来，我们始终看好以黄金为代表的贵金属价格重估（参见《全球央行购金百年史：任重而道远》，2024/5/10）。 随着全球地缘政治重构和财政可持续性恶化均驶入"快车道"，我们持续看好这类有一定"货币属性"的商品的长期 配置价值。但随着贵金属重估进入"共识"阶段，我们也进一步探讨这一趋势对更广义资产配置的启示，①全球变局 下黄金、白银的走势提醒我们，货币"含金量"下降、"估值锚"快速向上漂移，我们对供给稀缺实物资产和核心股 权资产的定价体系或许需要有所调整。②全球大宗商品、包括 AI 和国防军工航天等领域稀缺关键商品的供需平衡变化 可能持续推动更广义的商品、资源品价格重估，鉴于 2026 后与 2025 年前相比，全球投资周期将更为"耗材"，且 AI 基建及国防军工等核心需求增量的价格敏感度较低；同时，中国地产相关耗材量下降接近尾声，全球资源品需求不再 ...

Market Overview - The market showed a rebound after an initial decline, with the ChiNext Index turning positive after dropping over 1% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 4134.03 points, up 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14262.96 points, down 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index was at 3333.91 points, up 0.44% [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.87 trillion yuan, a decrease of 367.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals, insurance, cultivated diamonds, semiconductors, CPO concepts, and storage chips saw significant gains, while the battery, titanium dioxide, energy metals, lithium mining concepts, and land transfer sectors underperformed [1] - In the precious metals sector, China Gold achieved three consecutive trading limit ups, and Hunan Gold achieved two consecutive trading limit ups [2] - Semiconductor equipment stocks experienced a rebound, with ChipSource rising nearly 14% and other companies reaching trading limits [2] - The battery industry chain faced a collective decline, with Tianji Co. hitting the trading limit down [2] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that since December 2025, the banking index has declined by 8.4 percentage points due to real estate risk concerns and market style shifts, but the core revenue trend remains positive [3] - Eight banks have reported preliminary 2025 performance, with six showing revenue growth and five showing profit improvement, indicating a potential for continued strong performance in 2026 [3] - CITIC Securities highlighted the explosive demand for AI computing power driving upgrades in the optical communication industry, with strong demand for high-speed optical modules despite short-term supply gaps [3] Employment and Economic Measures - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced plans to implement actions to stabilize and expand employment, including measures to address the impact of artificial intelligence on job markets [4] - The focus will be on supporting key groups in employment, including college graduates, and establishing a regular mechanism to prevent poverty through employment assistance [4] Manufacturing Profit Growth - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits in high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 13.3% in 2025, surpassing the overall industrial growth of 12.7% [5] - The smart electronics sector significantly contributed to this growth, with profits in smart consumer device manufacturing rising by 48%, and specific sectors like smart drones and smart vehicle equipment seeing profits increase by 102% and 88.8%, respectively [5] - The semiconductor industry also experienced substantial profit growth, with integrated circuit manufacturing profits up by 172.6% [5] Financing Trends - As of January 26, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1.3668 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.82 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 1.3323 trillion yuan, up by 5.73 billion yuan, leading to a total financing balance of 2.6991 trillion yuan across both markets, an increase of 19.55 billion yuan [6]

特朗普政府近期接连对多国发出关税威胁，周一宣布将把来自韩国的汽车、木材及药品关税提高至 25%，并批评韩方未履行贸易协议，进一步加剧了市场对全球贸易局势的担忧。叠加美国政府可能停摆 等内部风险，美元持续走软至四个月低点，为以美元计价的贵金属提供支撑。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于27288一线上方，今日开盘于27300元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报28038元/千克，上涨6.26%，最高触及30020元/千克，最低下探27000元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 市场关注即将召开的美联储货币政策会议，尽管利率预计维持不变，但特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔 的调查、试图解雇理事库克等事件，引发对央行独立性的担忧，进一步强化了白银的避险属性。 市场已进入情绪主导、波动性急剧放大的危险区域，预计短期贵金属价格将剧烈波动，尤其是白银。沪 银仍然延续上涨趋势，目前涨超6%，沪银：区间关注29510-28090一线，大区间在30100-27615之间。 华泰证券研报称，北京时间1月29日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布1月议息会议决定，预计美联储大概率暂缓 降息，且维持20 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,132.61 points, down 0.09%[15] - U.S. stock indices continued to rise, with the S&P 500 nearing 6,950 points, up 0.5%[10] - European markets showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 600 up 0.2%[7] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, with a 2.1% increase on Tuesday[27] - The U.S. dollar weakened, with the dollar index down 0.6% to 97.04[27] - Oil prices fell slightly, with WTI crude at $60.63 per barrel, down 0.72%[27] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight decline, with the 2-year yield at 3.59%, down 0.4 basis points[31] - Strong demand was noted in the 2-year Treasury auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.75[31] - Thai government pension fund plans to reduce holdings in U.S. and Japanese bonds[31] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, energy stocks surged by 4.1%, while technology stocks fell by 1.9%[12] - The healthcare sector in A-shares saw a decline of 0.2%, while energy stocks rose by 4.2%[16] - The materials sector in Latin America showed strong performance, with the S&P Mexico IPC index up 0.75%[10] Corporate News - Netflix's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but the company faces short-term uncertainty due to acquisition plans[8] - Intel's first-quarter guidance was weak, but the company is optimistic about its data center business driven by AI demand[8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The document presents a comprehensive overview of the economic situation across multiple sectors, including macro - data, commodity investments, finance, and the stock market. It shows a complex economic landscape with various trends such as fluctuations in macro - economic indicators, significant price movements in commodities, and diverse performances in the financial and stock markets [1][2][5][8][14][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew at a 4.5% year - on - year rate, lower than the previous quarter (4.8%) and the same period last year (5.4%) [1] - Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, slightly up from the previous month (49.8%) and the same as last year [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from the previous month (50.0%) but lower than last year (52.2%) [1] - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, down from the previous month (35299 billion yuan) and last year (28537 billion yuan) [1] - CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% last year [1] - PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous month and last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin ratios for copper and aluminum futures contracts from January 28, 2026 [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to modify the minimum price change for soybean oil and palm oil futures and is seeking public opinions [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list soybean meal and corn series options contracts on February 2, 2026 [2] Metals - Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum reached new highs. Spot silver rose over 6% and touched $110/oz, gold rose over 2% and reached $5100/oz, platinum rose over 5% and broke through $2900/oz, and palladium rose nearly 3% and neared $2100/oz [5] - The tungsten market was booming with prices of tungsten raw materials, products, and alloys hitting new highs [5] - Hong Kong plans to increase its gold storage to 2000 tons in the next three years and establish a regional gold reserve hub [5] Energy and Chemicals - NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures rose over 33%, breaking through $7 per million British thermal units due to cold weather and supply disruptions [8] - OPEC+ is likely to keep oil production unchanged in March [9] - The EU will ban Russian liquefied natural gas from January 1, 2027, and pipeline gas from September 30, 2027 [9] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to stabilize beef cattle production and relieve difficulties in the dairy industry [11] 3. Financial News Open Market - The central bank conducted 1505 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 26, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal was 78 billion yuan [13] Important News - The central bank will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies and maintain financial stability [14] - Policies to boost service consumption, such as expanding inbound consumption and promoting the digital trade demonstration zone, will be introduced [14] Bond Market - Chinese bond market showed mixed performance. 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds had slightly lower yields, while most treasury futures declined [18] - Exchange - traded bonds: Vanke bonds were strong, while some industrial finance bonds were weak [19] - The central bank's money market rates mostly rose [20] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9572, up 70 points from the previous trading day [23] Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests investors moderately lock in profits in convertible bonds and adjust positions from overweight to neutral [24] - Huatai Fixed Income believes the bond market's trading opportunities have improved this year [24] - CITIC Securities warns of the upward risk of global bond interest rates [25] Today's Reminders - On January 27, 231 bonds will be listed, 191 bonds will be issued, 103 bonds will make payments, and 76 bonds will pay principal and interest [26] 4. Stock Market - On Monday, the A - share market declined slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%. The market turnover increased to 3.28 trillion yuan [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.06%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.24% [28]

Core Insights - The Chinese asset management industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization and quality improvement" under national strategies such as financial services for the real economy and the development of pension finance [1][35] - The "Jianan Star Awards" ceremony and private equity fund high-quality development forum were held to explore development trends and share insights among leading asset management institutions and media [1][35] - The event recognized outstanding asset management firms and introduced a new evaluation track for private equity funds [1][35] Group 1: Event Overview - The "Jianan Star Awards" ceremony was co-hosted by Jianan Jinxin and Huatai Securities, featuring over 100 asset management executives and media leaders [1][36] - The awards aimed to foster an open, collaborative, and win-win financial ecosystem [1][35] - The event highlighted the importance of collaboration among banks, securities firms, private equity, and rating agencies in the asset management ecosystem [4][38] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Jianan Jinxin, as an independent third-party institution, emphasizes fairness and transparency in its rating and award processes to promote healthy industry development [2][36] - The awards are supported by various research institutions, including Renmin University and Shanghai Financial Development Laboratory, showcasing a collaborative effort in the asset management sector [2][36] Group 3: Industry Trends - Huatai Securities is focusing on a technology-driven, customer-centric approach, aiming to enhance wealth management services through AI and a global service network [6][40] - The firm has launched the "Private Equity High Ground" initiative to support the private equity industry and improve service efficiency [7][41] - The low-interest-rate environment is prompting financial institutions to shift from scale expansion to quality improvement and diversified income structures [15][49] Group 4: Future Directions - The asset management industry is expected to face challenges and opportunities due to the evolving financial landscape, with a focus on serving key sectors like technology, green finance, and pension management [16][50] - The "Private Equity Public Evaluation" system aims to empower private equity managers and enhance their competitiveness in the market [9][43] - The discussions at the forum indicated a shift towards performance verification in the stock market and a return to fundamental logic in the bond market [13][47]

| 离任高级管理人员职务 | 副总经理 | | --- | --- | | 离任高级管理人员姓名 | 朱前 | 瑞财经 王敏 1月26日，华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司（以下简称"华泰资管"）高级管理人员变更公告，江晓阳正式出任董事长，朱前 升任总经理，刘博文兼任首席风险官。 江晓阳于2001年进入华泰证券股份有限公司，曾在华泰证券股份有限公司广州体育东路证券营业部、北京月坛南街证券营业部、金融创新 部、证券投资部等部门任职。 | 离任高级管理人员职务 | 总经理 | | --- | --- | | 离任高级管理人员姓名 | 江晓阳 | | 离任原因 | 职务调整 | | 离任日期 | 2026年1月23日 | | 转任本公司其他工作岗位的说明 | 董事长 | 2024年1月，江晓阳进入华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司，现任华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司董事长（代）、董事、总经理。 2025年上半年，华泰资管企业ABS发行数量77单，排名行业第一，发行规模为589.46亿元，排名行业第四。 | 离任原因 | 职务调整 | | --- | --- | | 离任日期 | 2026年1月23日 | | 转任本公 ...