Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a steady increase in output and providing insights into future market dynamics from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In October 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of these ten non-ferrous metals totaled 68.143 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 3.1% [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), China Aluminum (601600), Northern Rare Earth (600111), Jiangxi Copper (600362), Yunnan Copper (000878), Chihong Zn & Ge (600497), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Western Mining (601168), and Shenghe Resources (600392) [1] Group 3: Research Insights - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On December 22, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed a volatile and upward trend. Considering that the export of steel products has significantly decreased this year, the impact of export license management on some steel mills is expected to be limited. The support from the raw material end has reappeared. Although the spot price of coke is about to decline for the third consecutive round, the iron ore price has rebounded to the level of late November, which is of great significance for stabilizing the price center of steel products. The previous investment strategy of selling on rallies needs to be adjusted in a timely manner. The steel market may experience a certain degree of restorative rebound in the future [6][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis**: On December 22, the prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets increased. The prices of rebar in Hangzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Kunming, Guiyang, and Lanzhou rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Jinan decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil in Hangzhou, Wuxi, Changchun, and Chengdu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil continued to rise in a divergent manner. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2605 contract showed a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days, approaching a golden cross [8]. - **Future Outlook**: On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, announcing the implementation of export license management for some steel products, which will help enhance China's pricing power for high-end steel products globally, track trade flows, standardize export order, and improve industry efficiency and product competitiveness. Fundamentally, the supply and demand have been weak recently. The production of the five major steel products reached a new low since September last year, the social inventory has further decreased to a new low since the end of January, and the weekly consumption reached a new low since mid-October and the second lowest since mid-September. Affected by the continuous production cuts of steel mills, the cost of steel products has first decreased and then increased since late November, showing an overall downward trend. In terms of raw materials, the port iron ore inventory has reached a new high of 155 million tons since April 2022, while steel mills have chosen to further reduce their inventory. The total inventory of imported ore of 247 sample steel mills has decreased to 87.24 million tons, a decrease of 13.1% compared with the beginning of October. In the past two weeks, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly decreased and reached a new low since May last year. However, the decline in coking coal prices has led to continuous profitability of coking enterprises for 5 weeks, and the third round of price cuts for coke spot is about to be implemented. Recently, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. On December 4, the 10-day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 160,000 tons again, and further increased to 193,000 tons on December 13, an increase of 17.4% compared with the average since late November [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - Multiple government departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining and seal up abandoned mines [12]. - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts that China's steel consumption in 2025 may be 808 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the demand in 2026 may be 800 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% [12]. - As of December 15, the annual cumulative production of commercial coal by Zhunneng Group has exceeded the annual plan by 859,400 tons [12]. - Chongqing Iron and Steel plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, raising a maximum of 1 billion yuan [12]. - China Shenhua plans to acquire relevant assets worth 133.598 billion yuan [12]. - Western Mining's subsidiary has obtained a mining license for an iron polymetallic ore [12]. - Huaihe Energy states that its coal-fired power units are mainly supplied by long-term contracts and some market coal, and there is no plan to purchase coal from Mongolia and Indonesia [12]. - Huafu Securities predicts that coal supply will decline in 2026, and the overall coal market will improve. The central price of thermal coal is expected to rise to 770 yuan, and the central price of coking coal will stabilize at the bottom [12]. - As of December 18, the cumulative import and export freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port has reached a record high, with significant growth in the import of copper concentrate powder, manganese ore, and the export of goods [12]. - In November 2025, China's coal exports increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the import of coking coal decreased year-on-year and the import of thermal coal decreased year-on-year [12]. - China has requested consultations with India on its tariff measures for information and communication products and photovoltaic subsidy measures at the WTO [12]. - In November 2025, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, but the cumulative export volume from January to November increased year-on-year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides data charts on the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the inventory of the five major steel products in steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and the May contracts [16][17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The report from HuLong Securities indicates a sustained increase in the metal industry due to geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdown, and rising resource nationalism, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the sector [2]. Group 1: Price Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, the average monthly price of gold increased by 40.75% compared to the full year of 2024, silver rose by 33.69%, copper by 7.25%, and aluminum by 7.96% [2][3]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metal industry index significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 72.81% compared to 18.49% for the latter [2]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry achieved a revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 151.29 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 41.55% [2]. Group 3: Gold Market Insights - The demand for gold is driven by various factors, with ETF investments replacing central bank purchases as the main force behind price increases, indicating a strong investment demand [3]. - Gold is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing its role in pricing global uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - There is an expectation of a supply-demand mismatch in the copper market, with geopolitical factors and supply chain security concerns contributing to supply tightness [4]. - The market anticipates a turning point in the supply-demand relationship for refined copper around 2026, with a positive outlook for demand in the U.S. and China [4].

郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 23 日 人民币升值，"结汇潮"的助推——汇率双周报系列之六 10 月中旬以来，美元小幅贬值背景下、人民币大幅升值；这一非对称的涨 势引发了市场对"年终结汇"的热议。本轮升值是不是结汇推动、后续人 民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，供参考。 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3917 | 0.69 | 2.15 | 1.28 | | 深证综指 | 2493 | 1.13 | 5.16 | 1.56 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.86 | 3.48 | 20.31 | | 中盘指数 | 1.42 | 6.66 | 29.76 | | 小盘指数 | 1.12 | 5.06 | 25.03 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | ...

铜研究：供需分析及未来行情展望 20251222 目前铜市场的关键情况是什么？特别是 2026 年铜精矿基准价格的确定对市场 有何影响？ 目前铜市场的一个重要事件是 2026 年铜精矿基准价格的确定。上周五晚间， 张彤与安拓达成了 2026 年的铜精矿基准价格为 0 加工费。这一结果对国内冶 炼厂来说来之不易，显示出他们在谈判中付出了极大的努力。然而，这个 0 加 工费并不意味着 2026 年铜精矿供应会比预期更宽松。相反，我们认为这一数 字更多具有政治意义，而非实际意义。 预计 2026 年铜精矿的缺口将比 2025 年更大。中国有色金属工业协会表示要进一步反内卷，并可能设置产能天花板。 此外，小组也提议在 2016 年降低 10%的投入量，以应对负 TC 格局。因此， 尽管达成了 0 加工费协议，但实际能够签订这一条件订单的冶炼厂数量可能非 常有限，估计不到整体进口需求量的 20%。 铜精矿供应紧张背后的原因是什么？ 铜精矿供应紧张主要由于全球粗链产能增长过快，以及今年（2025 年）多地 大型矿山意外事件导致产量急剧下调。例如，今年初预计增量为 40 万吨，但 到年底基本被抹平。明年（2026 年）预计 ...

实物资产的时代：把握工业金属投资机会 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年12月22日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.2-2025.11.28市场走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现（2025.11.28) （单位：%） 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属行业 -2.6 15.3 60.3 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43% 53% 63% 73% 83% 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 有色金属(申万) 沪深300 《有色金属行业2025年三季报综述：宏观宽松预期叠加不确定性增强，有色行 业整体表现亮眼》2025.11.20 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 沪深300 -2.5 0.7 14.7 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 | | | | 股票代码 | 股票简 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally," driven by central bank policy adjustments and significant economic data releases, with a potential upward trend in 2026[2] - The market showed a strong upward movement last week, indicating the possible start of the 2026 cross-year market rally[2] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on growth and consumer sectors based on historical patterns and current market conditions[2] - The market's large-cap style outperformed, suggesting a transition from a liquidity-driven market to one driven by fundamentals[2] Fund Flows - A total of 28 new funds were established last week, with a combined issuance of 18.218 billion units[2] - Stock-type ETFs experienced slight outflows, primarily from TMT, financial real estate, and ChiNext theme ETFs, while broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows[2] Bond Market Insights - The total issuance of industrial bonds reached 163.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.44% week-on-week, accounting for 44.07% of the total credit bond issuance[2] - The REITs market saw a decline, with the weighted REITs index returning -2.74% last week, ranking lower than other major asset classes[2] Economic Data - November's economic indicators showed a further decline, with industrial production growth slowing down year-on-year, while fixed asset investment's cumulative year-on-year decline expanded[2] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, attributed to government shutdown impacts, but is expected to decrease as the government reopens[2] Sector Recommendations - In the petrochemical sector, companies like CNOOC and China Oilfield Services are recommended due to their high growth potential in offshore oil and gas exploration[5] - The semiconductor materials industry is expected to expand due to increased demand for high-purity materials driven by AI computing and data center construction[5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, fluctuating between 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. The supply side shows an increase in production but a decrease in processing fees, indicating potential tightness; the demand side is weak, and year - end capital pressure restricts purchases; macro - sentiment is cautious with a slight increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike [3][39] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE main contract price rose from 92,460 yuan/ton on December 18th to 92,880 yuan/ton on December 19th, a 0.45% increase. The premium of premium copper deepened from - 100 yuan/ton on December 18th to - 120 yuan/ton on December 19th, and the discounts of flat - copper and wet - copper also deepened, showing a weakening of the spot basis. The LME (0 - 3) discount was - 13.89 dollars/ton on December 18th [1][34] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased by 611 lots to 344,850 lots on December 18th. SMM information indicates that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, and downstream orders were weak, suggesting a possible contraction in trading volume [1][38] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: China's refined copper output in November was 1.236 million tons, a 11.9% year - on - year increase. However, the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 0 dollars/ton, lower than 21.25 dollars/ton in 2025, indicating tightening mine supply. Western Mining obtained a new mining license, but the short - term impact is limited [2][38] - **Demand Side**: Overall demand was weak. China's copper product output in November was 2.226 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. SMM expects the copper rod output in December to decline by 45,000 tons to 1 million tons, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to decline. Downstream orders only maintained rigid demand, and the demand in the automotive and construction sectors was flat [2][39] - **Inventory Side**: LME copper inventory increased from 44,650 tons on December 18th to 45,739 tons on December 19th, a 2.44% increase. SHFE inventory decreased from 164,275 tons to 160,400 tons, a 2.36% decrease. COMEX inventory increased. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 1.89% month - on - month, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.31%, showing a differentiated inventory structure [2][39] Price Trend Judgment - The report predicts that copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply side shows an increase in production but a decrease in processing fees, indicating potential tightness; the demand side is weak, and year - end capital pressure restricts purchases; macro - sentiment is cautious with a slight increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][39]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The unexpected decline in the US CPI for November is attributed to statistical "distortion" due to government shutdown disruptions, with a shorter data collection period and promotional season affecting price statistics [1] - The market's reaction to this "distorted" data is limited, with a high probability of maintaining interest rate pauses at 72.3% until further data is released in December [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - Historical trends indicate a "spring rally" in the A-share market, driven by monetary policy adjustments and significant economic data releases, suggesting a potential upward market movement [2] - The recent strong market performance may signal the beginning of the 2026 cross-year rally, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation [2] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs has seen a continuous decline, with a weighted REITs index return of -2.74% for the week [3] - The issuance of credit bonds has decreased, with industrial bonds accounting for 44.07% of the total issuance, reflecting a 12.44% week-on-week decline [4] Group 4: Industry Research - Computer Sector - The global tech investment enthusiasm remains strong, with a structural differentiation between "strong computing power" and "weak applications," suggesting a focus on AI applications in 2026 [7] - Three main investment lines are recommended: industry empowerment, overseas application, and edge AI, highlighting companies with strong industry know-how and high overseas revenue [7] Group 5: Non-Banking Sector Insights - In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets have become crucial for insurance companies to enhance investment returns, with a record high of 9.3% equity asset ratio among five listed insurers [8] - The proposed regulatory framework aims to improve asset-liability management in insurance companies, enhancing long-term operational resilience [9] Group 6: Energy Sector Developments - In November, power generation increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with improvements in nuclear, solar, and wind energy growth rates [10] - The storage and hydrogen sectors are expected to see continued investment opportunities, driven by ongoing demand and new project launches [11] Group 7: Metal Industry Analysis - The copper market is expected to see price increases, supported by a tight supply-demand balance and rising commercial net long positions [12] - Investment recommendations include companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on potential risks from economic conditions and supply releases [12] Group 8: Chemical Industry Insights - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing accelerated growth due to AI and data center demands, with a focus on high-purity materials [14] - Companies with technological advantages and strong customer ties in high-end materials are recommended for investment [14] Group 9: Medical Sector Developments - Ant Group's AI health assistant has rapidly gained popularity, transforming healthcare management through a digitalized approach [15] - Investment focus includes AI and home medical devices, offline health check-ups, and pharmaceutical retail [15] Group 10: Company-Specific Research - Taihe Co., Ltd. is recognized for its leading technology and capacity in core products, with significant profit growth expected from new product registrations [16] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.55 billion, 5.64 billion, and 6.83 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 33.67 yuan [16] Group 11: Media Sector Insights - The advertising demand from internet clients remains strong, with potential revenue growth from new business initiatives [17] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards, reflecting cautious optimism amid macroeconomic conditions [17] Group 12: TMT Sector Developments - Xiaomi's long-term AI strategy emphasizes substantial R&D investments, indicating a commitment to sustainable growth in AI applications [18] - The company is projected to achieve non-IFRS net profits of 426 billion, 438 billion, and 510 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [18] Group 13: Medical Device Sector Insights - The company is a leader in the interventional field, with significant revenue growth from overseas and peripheral products [19] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted due to potential policy impacts, with expected net profits of 6.33 billion, 7.05 billion, and 8.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [19]