晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

Industry Overview - The domestic furniture industry showed significant growth in the first five months of 2025, with retail sales totaling 75.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.40% [2][19] - The furniture manufacturing sector experienced a revenue decline of 3.90%, totaling 248.87 billion yuan [19] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively stimulated consumer spending, leading to rapid sales growth in related products [19] Market Performance - From June 2 to June 30, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.12 percentage points, with a return of 3.62% compared to the index's 2.50% [4][49] - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points, achieving a return of 1.94% [4][53] Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in several companies, including Oppein Home (增持), Sophia (增持), Semir Apparel (增持), Pathfinder (增持), and Guibao Pet (增持) [6][55] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue driving growth in the home goods sector, with central government funding of 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [6][57] Key Data Points - In May, furniture exports amounted to 5.637 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40% [21][58] - The pet food industry saw a significant increase in sales during the "618" shopping festival, with total sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.36% [6][57] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 613.84 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.30% [2][40]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

Summary of Conference Call for Semir Apparel Company Overview - The conference call discusses Semir Apparel, focusing on its retail performance, financial results, and strategic adjustments for 2025. Key Points Industry Performance - Retail terminal sales in the first half of 2025 experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.9%-2%, but showed a recovery with a growth of approximately 2% in the latter half of June, indicating a trend of low single-digit growth for the year [2][3][12]. Financial Results - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, while profit fell by over 38%. This decline was attributed to increased expenses from new direct stores, stock incentive costs, and reduced interest and investment income [2][5]. - The company anticipates that high expense levels will persist into Q2 2025, negatively impacting performance [5]. Store Expansion Strategy - The company has adjusted its store opening strategy, expecting the total number of stores in 2025 to remain flat or slightly decrease, contrasting with a net increase of 388 stores in 2024 [2][6][8]. - In 2024, the company opened 1,400 new stores and closed 1,000, leading to a net increase of 388 stores [6][8]. Inventory Management - Inventory increased by 490 million yuan in 2024, a 14% year-on-year rise. Franchisee inventory is also expected to increase, but at a lower rate of about 10% [8][9]. - The increase in inventory has negatively impacted the wholesale business, which performed poorly in Q1 2025 [9][10]. E-commerce and Market Expectations - The management's expectations for the e-commerce environment were overly optimistic, leading to inventory buildup due to lower-than-expected sales [13][14]. - The company has implemented a flexible supply chain strategy and an integrated approach to address these challenges, although results have been limited [14]. New Store Format Success - The new basic store project has been successful in enhancing store efficiency and shopping experience, with about two-thirds of Semir stores undergoing transformation [4][15][17]. - Despite internal improvements, external factors such as reduced foot traffic and economic cycles have hindered revenue growth [16]. Marketing and Strategic Focus - The company plans to maintain a high level of marketing investment, although the execution may be adjusted due to Q1 performance [19][20]. - The focus has shifted towards achieving a balance between revenue growth and profit margins, with an emphasis on long-term sustainability [21][22]. International Expansion - The company has surpassed 100 overseas stores, with subsidiaries in Singapore and Vietnam, and plans to continue expanding through franchise models [23][24]. Brand Performance - New brands like Puma and Asics showed significant growth of 70%-90% in May, positively impacting the overall performance despite slower growth in core brands [4][25]. Discount Management - The company maintains strict control over discounting for adult and children's clothing, ensuring consistent growth across online and offline channels [26]. Dividend Policy - The company has not made any motions regarding mid-term dividends, with expectations for major dividends to be determined at year-end [27].

Core Views - The report highlights that increased consumer subsidy policies across various regions are expected to stimulate market vitality and promote sustained terminal demand recovery [2][67] - The 618 shopping festival saw a 15% year-on-year increase in total e-commerce sales, indicating a shift towards a "long cycle + strong wave" promotional model [2][79] - Despite a temporary easing of global trade tensions, the textile manufacturing industry may still face impacts from potential future tariff escalations [2][99] Market Review - As of June 20, 2025, the textile and apparel industry has seen a slight increase of 0.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.36 percentage points [9] - The textile manufacturing sub-industry has decreased by 8.41%, while the accessories sub-industry has surged by 23.16%, significantly outperforming the market [10][9] Industry Overview - The report notes that consumer confidence has stabilized, with per capita GDP reaching 95,700 yuan in 2024, and a GDP growth rate of 5.0% [31][28] - Retail sales in May 2025 showed a significant increase, with total retail sales reaching 4,132.6 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [35] Mid-term Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer subsidy policies and the gradual recovery of terminal demand, particularly in the brand apparel and home textile sectors [71][67] - Leading companies in the home textile sector, such as Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile, are expected to benefit from ongoing subsidy policies [72] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Chao Hong Ji, Huali Group, Xingye Technology, Mercury Home Textile, Luolai Life, Semir Apparel, and Baoxiniang, focusing on companies with strong brand and product capabilities [2] Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the textile manufacturing sub-industry reported a revenue increase of 0.73% and a net profit increase of 11.38% [57] - Key companies like Chao Hong Ji and Huali Group have shown significant stock price increases of 151.80% and 12.34% respectively [16][66] Global Trade Dynamics - The report indicates that while the recent tariff conflicts have eased, the textile manufacturing industry remains vulnerable to future trade tensions [99] - Companies with high export ratios, such as Huali Group and Bailong Oriental, have established overseas production capacities to mitigate tariff impacts [99][102]

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival this year featured a 39-day duration, the longest in history, with simplified promotional rules and the use of AI tools to enhance efficiency for merchants [1][3] - Major platforms like Taobao and JD.com shifted from complex discount structures to straightforward price reductions, aiming to improve consumer experience and engagement [3][10] - Consumer behavior has evolved, with a growing focus on product quality, cost-effectiveness, and after-sales service, leading to a decline in the effectiveness of complicated discount strategies [3][4] Group 2 - The rise of instant retail has become a competitive battleground, with brands like Apple and Xiaomi reporting over 50% year-on-year growth in daily orders during the "618" event [6][7] - Notable performance was observed in various sectors, including fast-moving consumer goods, with brands like Watsons and Miniso achieving significant order increases [7][8] - Instant retail is now seen as a core strategy for brands to capture market share, driven by consumer demand for immediate satisfaction [8][10] Group 3 - The integration of national subsidies with promotional events has led to remarkable sales growth across multiple categories, particularly in home appliances and electronics [10][11] - The demand for durable consumer goods has surged, supported by government policies encouraging upgrades and replacements [11] - AI technology has emerged as a transformative force in e-commerce, enhancing various processes from product selection to customer service [12][13] Group 4 - AI tools are being utilized to create personalized shopping experiences, with platforms offering features that generate tailored product recommendations based on user data [12] - The potential of AI in e-commerce extends beyond current applications, with expectations for deeper integration into the consumer, merchant, and platform interactions [12][13] - The collaboration between AI technology and e-commerce platforms is expected to empower Chinese brands in their digital transformation efforts [13]

Group 1: Second-Hand Luxury Market - The second-hand luxury goods market is expanding into county-level cities, reflecting an increase in consumer spending power in these areas. During the Spring Festival, order volume for second-hand luxury items in fifth-tier cities grew by 33%, while third and fourth-tier cities also saw double-digit growth [1] - Challenges for second-hand luxury stores in county areas include limited style variety, inventory backlog, and profit compression, necessitating stable sourcing and authentication capabilities [1] - The second-hand luxury industry is shifting from high profits to refined operations, with competition expected to concentrate among financially strong major players or local small shops [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - New consumption brands are rapidly emerging by targeting lower-tier markets and utilizing efficient channels, disrupting traditional consumer perceptions in first and second-tier cities [2] - Generation Z consumers prioritize emotional value, cost-effectiveness, and information transparency, driving a comprehensive restructuring of products, brands, and channels [2] - The lower-tier market shows strong consumption potential, becoming a new growth engine, reflecting profound changes in demand-side consumption [2] Group 3: Emotional Value in Luxury Consumption - A report indicates that happiness dominates luxury consumption trends in China, with brands needing to provide enjoyable and relaxed experiences while emphasizing equality and respect [4] - The value of luxury goods is shifting towards emotional, cultural, and personal expression, with consumers seeking resonance with ideal personas [4] - Changes in product roles are evident, with bags focusing on practicality and jewelry serving as emotional tokens, highlighting the need for brands to create high-level emotional connections [4] Group 4: Gold Consumption and IP Collaboration - The gold consumption market in China is experiencing turbulence, with rising gold prices but weak demand, leading to a decline in jewelry consumption and an increase in investment gold bars [5] - Brands are exploring the "Golden Valley" model, combining IP collaborations with the value retention of gold to shift consumer perception from "family assets" to "personal expression" [5] - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are partnering with anime IPs to achieve product premiumization, while future strategies must balance value retention with emotional needs [5] Group 5: Fast Fashion Challenges - The fast fashion industry faces challenges due to the end of the U.S. tax exemption policy for small packages, significantly impacting the "small order quick response" model represented by Shein [10] - New tariffs increase costs and extend customs clearance times, undermining the rapid response advantage of these businesses [10] - While industry scale may decline in the short term, the "small order quick response" model remains a long-term development direction, requiring companies to innovate technologically and commercially [10] Group 6: Silver Economy in Luxury Brands - Luxury brands are targeting the "silver economy," with China's silver economy scale reaching 7 trillion yuan, indicating significant future potential [11] - Brands are developing practical products and age-appropriate experiences, such as lightweight handbags and cultural scene enhancements, to cater to this demographic [11] - Silver consumers are rational and loyal, focusing on self-expression and brand connotation, prompting brands to reinforce nostalgic emotions through classic revivals and workshops [11] Group 7: Brand Dynamics - The Chinese menswear brand Li Ning has opened its first overseas store in Malaysia, marking a key step in its internationalization strategy [12] - The opening aligns with Li Ning's multi-brand and international strategy, with projected revenue of 3.65 billion yuan in 2024 and a total of 2,773 stores [12] - Semir's children's clothing brand Balabala is facing challenges in a competitive market, with a decline in revenue and net profit, necessitating supply chain optimization and product enhancement [13]

品牌们敏锐捕捉到这一趋势，纷纷入局，希望在这片新蓝海中找到增长突破口。从远场走到近场，从日 用百货拓展到数码、家电、母婴、美妆、服饰等全品类，增量究竟有多少？品牌该如何在这场即时零售 的混战中，抢占新的增长高地？ 即时零售正以破竹之势，改写着618的商业格局。今年618，消费市场的竞争焦点从传统的远场电商，逐 渐向近场即时零售转移。 不同于以往，今年的即时零售不再局限于日用百货的即时配送，而是将触角延伸至数码、家电、母婴、 美妆、服饰等全品类领域，一场关于消费体验与效率的革新正在上演。 行业数据正在印证这场变革的爆发力：淘宝闪购订单中，非茶饮品类占比飙升至75%，非餐品类增速远 超预期。即时零售已突破"应急消费"的固有标签，演变为全品类消费的主流场景。这种从"囤货式消 费"到"即时满足"的转变，不仅验证了即时零售模式的强大适配性，更"撕开"了万亿级市场的增长缺 口。 迪卡侬的成绩同样突出，天猫618期间迪卡侬门店自提日均订单环比增长2.2倍，在淘宝闪购的整体日均 订单环比增长2倍。多种履约方式并行，提升了品牌在近场市场的渗透力。 即时零售风口爆发！ 这些品牌吃到了"第一口蛋糕" 答案不仅关乎618的平台竞争， ...

Macro and Strategy Research - In May, social financing increased by over 200 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing being a major support, also increasing by over 200 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Corporate short-term loans showed significant year-on-year growth, while medium and long-term loans decreased due to insufficient demand, particularly in a competitive internal environment [2] - M1 year-on-year growth rate rebounded in May, driven by increased fiscal spending and a decrease in the base from the previous year [3] Fund Research - The market saw mixed performance among major indices, with 13 out of 31 industries rising; the top five performing industries included non-ferrous metals and oil and petrochemicals [4] - The net inflow of funds was primarily in the technology and consumer sectors, while active equity fund positions decreased to 72.78%, down by 3.57 percentage points [5] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 29.50 billion yuan, with significant outflows from stock ETFs, indicating a shift towards bond ETFs due to risk aversion [5] Industry Research - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector remains highly popular, with the blind box market expected to exceed 58 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2020 to 2025 [7][10] - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed it by 0.31 percentage points [7] - The Guangzhou government has proposed measures to boost consumption, which may positively impact the home improvement and home furnishing sectors [10]

如何看 2025 年 5 月消费数据 20250616 摘要 2025 年 1-5 月，线上零售占比达 24.5%，较社零提升 2.5 个百分点， 受益于大促周期拉长。必选品中，粮油食品和日用品零售额分别同比增 长 15%和 8%，可选品中，珠宝类产品同比增长 22%，受金价上涨驱 动，家电与通讯器材受国补政策拉动，分别同比增长 53%和 33%。 餐饮业 2025 年 1-4 月累计增速约 4%，大众餐饮表现优于中高端餐饮。 酒店业受商旅需求疲软影响，经营承压，节假日后数据下滑明显，3-5 月每间客房收入下滑 9%-10%。免税行业客单价虽上涨 21%，但销售 额因购物人次减少而下滑。 汽车行业 5 月社零总额同比增长 1%，乘用车批发销量同比增长 13%， 出口增长 18%。新能源车渗透率持续提升，5 月单月渗透率达 51.7%，累计渗透率 47.3%。国家积极推动汽车消费，预计 2025 年以 旧换新补贴申请量超 1,000 万辆，带动消费量约 600 万辆。 汽车行业智能化加速，智能驾驶渗透率已达 10%，预计将快速提升至 50%。服装行业 5 月零售额同比增长 4%，二季度修复明显，品牌服装 进入去 ...