Core Insights - The overall performance of nine listed custom home furnishing companies in 2024 has been under pressure, with significant fluctuations in both revenue and profit [1][2] Revenue Summary - Oppein Home remains the industry leader with a revenue of 18.925 billion, but it has seen a year-on-year decline of 16.93%, marking a recent low [1][2] - Gold Medal Home showed resilience with a revenue decline of only 4.68% [1][2] - Other companies experienced double-digit revenue declines, with PIANO facing the largest drop at 32.68% [1][2] Profit Summary - Only Sophia achieved a year-on-year profit growth of 8.69%, while other companies generally faced profit declines or losses [1][3] - Shangpin Home, PIANO, and Dinggu Jichuang reported net losses of 215 million, 375 million, and 175 million respectively, with loss margins expanding significantly [1][3] Company-Specific Performance - Oppein Home's net profit was 2.599 billion, down 14.38% year-on-year, while it continues to advance its "retail home furnishing" strategy [2][3] - Sophia's revenue was 10.494 billion, down 10.04%, but it managed to maintain profitability with a net profit of 1.371 billion [3] - Zhibang Home reported a revenue of 5.258 billion, down 14.04%, and a net profit of 385 million, down 35.23% [3] - Gold Medal Home's revenue was 3.475 billion, down 4.68%, with a net profit of 199 million, down 31.76% [4] - Haolaike's revenue was 1.910 billion, down 15.69%, with a net profit of 89 million, down 62.93% [4] - Wole Home's revenue was 1.432 billion, down 16.29%, with a net profit of 121 million, down 22.50% [4] - PIANO's revenue was 0.886 billion, down 32.68%, with a net loss of 375 million, expanding by 535.88% [5] - Dinggu Jichuang's revenue was 1.027 billion, down 20.06%, with a net loss of 175 million, expanding by 982.54% [5] Industry Outlook - Despite the overall pressure in the custom home furnishing industry in 2024, there is potential for moderate recovery in 2025 due to ongoing policy optimizations in the real estate sector and the release of demand for home renovations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The home furnishing industry continues to face deep adjustments and transformation pressures, with many leading companies experiencing declines in both revenue and net profit [1][3]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - The top five companies by revenue for 2024 are: Oppein Home (¥18.925 billion), Kuka Home (¥18.480 billion), Henglin Home (¥11.029 billion), Sofia (¥10.494 billion), and Xilinmen (¥8.729 billion) [1]. - Among the top five companies, only Henglin Home (34.59% growth) and Xilinmen (0.59% growth) achieved revenue growth, while Oppein Home (-16.93%), Sofia (-10.04%), and Kuka Home (-3.81%) saw declines [3]. - In a broader analysis of 64 listed home furnishing companies, 39 companies (approximately 60%) reported revenue growth year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Profit Performance - Only Sofia reported a year-on-year increase in net profit among the top five companies, achieving ¥1.371 billion (8.69% growth), while Oppein Home's net profit fell by 14.38% to ¥2.599 billion, and Kuka Home's net profit decreased by 29.38% to ¥1.417 billion [3]. - Overall, 23 out of 64 listed companies (less than 40%) reported a year-on-year increase in net profit [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The home furnishing industry is facing significant challenges due to a reduction in bulk transactions and engineering procurement, as the real estate industry's boom period has ended, prompting companies to focus more on the C-end retail market [1]. - The common challenges highlighted by multiple companies include the weak demand stemming from the adjustment in the real estate market [4]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - In response to industry adjustments, some leading companies are accelerating their transition to a "big home" model, integrating product categories, optimizing channels, and enhancing services to create new growth drivers [7]. - Oppein Home has expanded its retail "big home" stores to over 1,100, increasing by more than 450 stores since the beginning of the year, and its overseas revenue grew by 34.42% to ¥430 million [7]. - Sofia is also transitioning towards a "big home" strategy, expanding its product offerings across various categories [8]. Group 5: International Expansion - Henglin Home is pursuing growth through "manufacturing overseas + brand overseas" strategies, with overseas revenue reaching ¥9.887 billion, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue [9]. - The company has seen a 196.47% increase in online sales to ¥4.325 billion, driven by its cross-border e-commerce initiatives [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **New Consumption Sector**: Companies like Yicheng, Zhengkang Oral Care, and Jingbo Bio are highlighted for their ability to drive growth through new product launches, achieving over 30% growth. Stable growth companies such as Runben, Perfect Diary, Mao Ge Ping, and Juzi Bio are also noted for their resilient stock performance [1][2] - **Food and Beverage Sector**: Key companies to watch include Bailong Chuangyuan (food additives), Yanjinpuzi (konjac products), and Three Squirrels. Traditional growth stocks like Dongpeng Special Drink, Yanjing Beer, and strong performers like Qingdao Beer and Nongfu Spring are also recommended. The liquor sector is expected to bottom out gradually from late 2025 to mid-2026, with limited downside risk [1][4] - **High School Education Sector**: Investment opportunities are identified due to policy changes increasing high school enrollment ratios. Companies like Tianli International Holdings and Xueda Education are noted for their low valuations and significant investment potential [5] - **Emotional Value Consumption**: Focus on trendy toys and gold jewelry, with domestic gold jewelry growth exceeding market expectations. These sectors are seen as having good investment value despite their valuations being comparable to general growth companies [6] Core Insights and Arguments - **New Consumption Trends**: The beauty and snack sectors are expected to thrive, with 2025 being a pivotal year for beauty products. Companies with strong product launch capabilities are emphasized for their stock resilience [2] - **Traditional Retail Adjustments**: Opportunities arise from adjustments in traditional retail, with a focus on companies with high dividends and reliable performance, such as Chongqing Department Store and Dashang Group [3][8] - **Home Appliance Sector**: The small appliance market, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is anticipated to see significant breakthroughs by early 2026. Traditional appliance companies like Midea, Gree, and Haier are highlighted for their overseas expansion strategies [9][11] - **Textile and Apparel Sector**: Investment recommendations include Anta Sports and Xtep International, focusing on outdoor and high-end apparel segments. Companies like Hailan Home and Luolai Life are noted for their stable operations [17] Additional Important Insights - **Emerging Product Trends**: New products in emerging sectors such as millet products, AI glasses, AR glasses, and electronic cigarettes are gaining traction, indicating strong industry trends [14] - **Pet Market Growth**: The pet market in China is thriving, with significant growth in the number of exhibitors at the Shanghai Pet Expo. Domestic brands like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are recognized for their innovative products [25] - **Export Market Expectations**: The export market is showing weak expectations but strong realities, with companies like Zhejiang Ziran and Gongchuang Turf performing well in Europe [15] This summary encapsulates the key insights and investment opportunities across various sectors as discussed in the conference call records.

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Insights - In April, China's overall exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in export value, although exports to the U.S. declined by over 20% [8] - The global sales of AI smart glasses reached 600,000 units in Q1 2025, marking a 216% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by the success of Ray Ban Meta smart glasses [8] - The report continues to recommend sectors benefiting from new consumer trends, particularly in personal care and trendy toys [8] Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market with a 3.02% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025, compared to a 2.00% increase in the CSI 300 index [17] - Sub-sectors such as entertainment products (+3.91%) and home goods (+3.30%) showed strong performance [17] Home Furnishing - In March, the furniture retail sales increased by 29.5% year-on-year, while the furniture export value decreased by 7.8% in April [45] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the home furnishing sector as consumer confidence gradually improves [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 9, 2025, the prices of various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5,250 CNY/ton (-56.3 CNY/ton) and boxboard paper at 3,506.6 CNY/ton (+2.4 CNY/ton) [55] - The paper industry experienced a cumulative revenue decline of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, with a sales profit margin of 2.7% [69] New Consumer Trends - The report emphasizes the growth in the AI smart glasses market, with expectations of 5.5 million units sold in 2025, driven by new product launches from various brands [8] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Mingyue Optical and Kangnai Optical, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the market, with a 3.47% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025 [27] - The report suggests monitoring leading brands in apparel and outdoor products as domestic consumption policies begin to take effect [27]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Jusen Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jusen Precision") has made significant progress in its journey to list on the Beijing Stock Exchange after its recent listing on the New Third Board [1][2]. Group 1: Company Progress and Listing Plans - Jusen Precision was listed on the New Third Board on April 25, 2024, and signed a counseling agreement with Guotou Securities for its public offering and listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][2]. - The company submitted its listing counseling application to the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau on April 29, 2024, which was accepted on May 6, 2024, marking the start of its listing counseling period [2]. - Compared to its peer, Tut Precision, Jusen Precision's path to the capital market appears to be smoother, although it still faces challenges such as risks associated with family ownership and dealer management [1][3]. Group 2: Company Structure and Risks - Jusen Precision is a family-owned enterprise, with the actual controller, Qi Zhi, holding 55.77% of the shares directly and controlling a total of 62.00% through partnerships [4][5]. - The company has established a relatively sound corporate governance structure, but risks remain regarding the potential for the actual controller to influence major decisions, which could lead to conflicts with minority shareholders [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Jusen Precision's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was reported as 793 million, 805 million, and 778 million yuan respectively, with net profits of 35.9 million, 41.9 million, and 62.1 million yuan [7]. - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.36% in 2024, attributed to decreased sales of functional and smart hardware products, while net profit saw a significant increase of 48.25% [7][8]. - The company’s domestic clients include well-known home furnishing companies such as Oppein, Sofia, and Haolaike, which have also reported performance fluctuations in 2024 [8]. Group 4: Market and Sales Dynamics - Jusen Precision's overseas sales revenue for 2022, 2023, and the first half of 2024 were 277 million, 244 million, and 152 million yuan, accounting for 36.62%, 32.03%, and 43.13% of total sales respectively [9]. - The company faces challenges from fluctuations in the USD/RMB exchange rate, which could impact profit margins and overall profitability [9]. - Domestic dealer revenue has shown growth, but increased management complexity poses risks to brand reputation and sales performance [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][26] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 0.82 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.04 billion, down 10.9% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to the pressure from the real estate sector and weak consumer demand, but the impact was mitigated by the implementation of national subsidy policies [1][2][3] - The company has initiated a deep transformation in domestic retail since Q4 2024, which, combined with the effects of national subsidies, has led to a significant narrowing of revenue decline in Q1 2025 [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan for every 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 67.95%, an increase of 16.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 5.26 billion, down 14.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.39 billion, down 35.2% year-on-year. The revenue for Q4 2024 was 1.58 billion, down 27.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows a decline in various segments: distribution (-18.9%), direct sales (-0.8%), bulk sales (-16.2%), and overseas sales (+37.3%). In Q1 2025, the revenue changes were -25.0% for distribution, +205.8% for direct sales, -55.8% for bulk sales, and +3.5% for overseas sales [2][4] Margin and Cost Control - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.3%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the net margin was 7.3%, down 2.4 percentage points. In Q1 2025, the gross margin further decreased to 32.2%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][4] - The company effectively controlled expenses in Q1 2025, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 17.1%, 7.2%, 4.9%, and 0.2%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease [3][4] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 0.42 billion, 0.47 billion, and 0.52 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.0%, 12.6%, and 10.7% [4][5] - The diluted EPS for the same years is projected to be 0.96, 1.08, and 1.20 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home furnishing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the national subsidy policy has begun to show effects, leading to a convergence in revenue decline and a differentiation in profitability within the industry. The real estate sector has gradually reached its bottom after a year of adjustment, with new home transactions stabilizing and second-hand home transactions recovering. The home decoration market is expected to maintain a "442" structure in 2024, with new homes accounting for 40%, existing homes for 40%, and second-hand homes for 20% [2][9] - Leading companies in the home furnishing sector are transitioning from store expansion to refined operations, focusing on cost reduction and exploring new market opportunities such as home renovation and e-commerce. For instance, Oppein has encouraged dealers to consolidate resources and close inefficient stores, significantly reducing various assessment indicators to focus on market advantages [2][3][9] Industry Overview - The national subsidy policy has normalized, positively impacting domestic sales. In Q4 2024, leading companies like Kuka and Zhijia showed revenue growth, with Kuka's domestic sales increasing by approximately 12.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025. The report anticipates that orders and revenues for leading companies will see tangible growth starting from Q2 2025 [3][10] - In terms of exports, companies like Kuka and Oppein are expected to maintain double-digit growth in overseas sales, with Oppein establishing a solid sales network in 146 countries and regions, achieving a revenue increase of 34.4% in overseas channels in 2024 [4][11] Segment Analysis - The core categories, particularly cabinets and wardrobes, are showing signs of recovery, with supporting categories also improving. Leading companies are actively implementing whole-home strategies and enhancing scene-based designs. For example, Oppein is building a more comprehensive supply chain system for home products and renovation materials [5][6] - The report notes that the profitability of leading companies is diverging, with Oppein achieving a gross margin of 34.3% in Q1 2025, while others like Zhijia experienced a decline in gross margin due to internal reforms and channel subsidies [7][9] Sales Channels - Retail channels are recovering first, while bulk channels are under pressure, with a general decline of over 20% in Q1 2025. The report indicates that the performance of single stores has improved, with leading companies like Oppein and Zhijia reporting year-on-year revenue increases of 10% and 43%, respectively [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The home furnishing industry is facing significant challenges due to a reduction in bulk transactions and engineering procurement, leading companies to focus more on the retail market for consumers [1] Industry Overview - The home furnishing industry is undergoing deep adjustments and transformation pressures, with many leading companies experiencing declines in both revenue and net profit [2] - By the end of 2024, the top five companies by revenue are: Oppein Home (18.925 billion), Kuka Home (18.480 billion), Henglin Home (11.029 billion), Sofia (10.494 billion), and Xilinmen (8.729 billion) [2] - Among these top companies, only Henglin Home and Xilinmen saw revenue growth, with increases of 34.59% and 0.59% respectively; only Sofia achieved net profit growth of 8.69% [2][3] Performance Analysis - In 2024, 39 out of 64 listed home furnishing companies reported revenue growth, accounting for about 60%; however, only 23 companies reported net profit growth, which is less than 40% [3] - Companies with notable revenue growth include Zhongyuan Home (+45.42%), Henglin Home (+34.59%), and Yongyi Home (+34.22%); while those with significant net profit growth include Qu Mei Home (+46.49%), Sentai Shares (+32.89%), and Songlin Technology (+26.65%) [3] - The top five companies by revenue saw declines: Oppein Home (-16.93%), Sofia (-10.04%), and Kuka Home (-3.81%) [3] Sector Challenges - The custom home furnishing sector is particularly affected, with leading companies like Oppein and Sofia experiencing revenue shrinkage, and others like Shangpin Home and PIANO facing losses exceeding 100 million [4] - The soft furniture sector also shows losses, with Mengbaihe reporting a net loss of 151 million [4] Market Dynamics - The common challenge across the industry is the weak demand stemming from adjustments in the real estate market [8] - The home decoration market is expected to maintain a "442" structure, with new homes (40%), existing homes (40%), and second-hand homes (20%), which puts pressure on both engineering and retail channels [8] Strategic Shifts - In response to industry challenges, some leading companies are accelerating their transition to a "big home" model, integrating product categories and optimizing channels [10] - Oppein Home has expanded its retail "big home" stores to over 1,100, increasing by more than 450 stores compared to the beginning of the year, and has seen overseas revenue grow by 34.42% to 430 million [10] - Sofia is also transitioning to a "big home" strategy, expanding its product categories to cover a wide range of home furnishing needs [11] Growth Initiatives - Henglin Home is pursuing growth through "manufacturing and brand going overseas," with overseas revenue reaching 9.887 billion, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue [12] - The company has seen a 196.47% increase in online sales, reaching 4.325 billion, and has expanded its product offerings beyond office chairs to include soft furniture and new material flooring [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth of emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products, indicating a robust performance in the light industry sector [1][5] - The report anticipates a recovery in traditional consumption sectors, with a focus on companies that are expected to reach performance inflection points in the second half of the year [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Overview - The overall economic environment is described as weak, but there is structural prosperity in consumption [5] 2. Performance Review for 24A & 25Q1 - Emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products have shown significant growth, with companies like Pop Mart and others demonstrating strong performance [9] - Traditional consumption sectors are expected to stabilize and recover, with companies such as Oppein Home, Gujia Home, and others being highlighted for their potential [9] 3. Sub-sector Performance - **Home Products**: 24A revenue decreased by 0.28% YoY, while net profit dropped by 16.21%. However, 25Q1 showed a revenue increase of 3.79% and a net profit increase of 10.78% [9] - **Paper Industry**: 24A revenue decreased by 1.25% YoY, with a significant drop in net profit of 136.6%. 25Q1 saw a revenue decline of 13.04% and a net profit decrease of 91.72% [9] - **Packaging**: 24A revenue increased by 2.55% YoY, but net profit fell by 16.81%. In 25Q1, revenue grew by 9.2% and net profit increased by 19.7% [9] - **Cultural and Entertainment Products**: 24A revenue increased by 7.64% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 8.81%. 25Q1 showed a slight revenue increase of 2.42% and a net profit decrease of 6.95% [9] - **Personal Care Products**: 24A revenue increased by 6.30% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 4.71%. 25Q1 saw a significant revenue increase of 26.13% and a net profit increase of 12.94% [9] 4. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.28%, with notable changes in specific sub-sectors [12] - Companies like Sun Paper, Morning Glory, and others are leading in fund holdings, particularly in emotional consumption categories [15]