Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04% from November 3 to November 7, ranking low among all primary industries, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [1][2]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector's performance was characterized by a 0.04% decline, with energy metals up by 1.43%, industrial metals up by 0.42%, and precious metals down by 2.53% during the same period [1][2]. Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices faced pressure due to cooling macro sentiment, with LME copper closing at $10,695 per ton, down 1.80% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also fell, with SHFE copper at 85,940 CNY per ton, down 1.23% [3]. - Supply concerns arose from potential closures of smelting facilities in Canada and ongoing disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Demand showed slight improvement, with a reduction in the discount for spot copper prices [3]. Aluminum Market Analysis - Aluminum prices showed high volatility, with LME aluminum closing at $2,862 per ton, down 0.90%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 21,625 CNY per ton. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum increased, and social inventory rose by 0.13% to 627,100 tons [4]. - Expectations for rising energy prices both domestically and internationally could support aluminum prices in the future [4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, with COMEX gold at $4,007.80 per ounce, down 0.14%, and SHFE gold at 921.26 CNY per gram, down 0.07%. The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold, with expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5]. - The market is currently in a bottoming phase for precious metals, with volatility decreasing significantly after a three-week correction period [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The risk sentiment for copper has rebounded, leading to an increase in its price [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 86,480 with a daily increase of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 86,500 with a night - session increase of 0.02%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk price was 10,875 with a 1.68% increase. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper index and LME copper 3M electronic - disk had corresponding changes [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 43,789, an increase of 395 from the previous day, and the LME copper inventory was 136,275, an increase of 375. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 8.60%, up 0.31% [1]. - **Spread Data**: There were various changes in spreads such as LME copper ascension and discount, spot - futures spreads, and cross - period spreads [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The State Council's General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment. The U.S. government was close to ending the shutdown, and the S&P and Nasdaq indices had their largest five - month gains [1]. - **Industry News**: Glencore planned to close its Horn smelter and a Canadian copper refinery due to environmental issues and high transformation costs. The U.S. included copper in the new critical minerals list. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia, resuming the flow of goods on an important trade corridor. Freeport Indonesia completed the investigation of a mudslide incident at its copper - gold mine [1][3]. Trend Intensity The copper trend intensity was 1, with a range of [- 2,2] indicating different levels of bullish or bearish views [3].

2025年11月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 黄金：政府关门持续影响流动性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪回升，价格上涨 | 4 | | 铅：国内库存增加，限制价格上涨 | 6 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 7 | | 镍：高库存累增与印尼风险博弈，低位震荡 | 9 | | 不锈钢：向上缺乏驱动，下方难言广阔 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 11 日 黄金：政府关门持续影响流动性 白银：震荡反弹 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 935.98 | 1.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04% during the week of November 3 to November 7, ranking low among all primary industries. The industrial metals prices are under pressure due to disappointing manufacturing PMI data from both China and the U.S., alongside a strengthening dollar [1][14] - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for precious metals, with a continued bullish outlook despite recent price corrections [4][45] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the non-ferrous metals sector fell by 0.04%, underperforming the index by 1.12 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 1.43%, industrial metals by 0.42%, while precious metals declined by 2.53% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of November 7, LME copper closed at $10,695 per ton, down 1.80% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also fell, indicating a cooling macro sentiment. However, there are signs of demand stabilization as the current price level is more acceptable to downstream users [2][31] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,862 per ton, down 0.90%, while domestic prices increased by 1.53%. The market anticipates upward pressure on aluminum prices due to rising energy costs [3][37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.54% to $3,067 per ton, with inventories decreasing week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [39] - **Tin**: LME tin prices fell by 1.00% to $35,820 per ton, with supply constraints providing some price support despite a cooling macro environment [41] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,007.80 per ounce, down 0.14%. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in interest rate expectations, impacting gold prices. However, the overall macro framework remains bullish for precious metals [4][45] - **Silver**: The report notes a significant drop in volatility for precious metals, with silver prices showing signs of tightness in the physical market [46]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a zinc special report dated November 10, 2025, focusing on the Q3 financial reports of overseas zinc mines [4][8][12] Group 2: Overseas Mine Production Overseas Part - Mine Output Aggregation - The report provides a detailed table of the production of overseas mining enterprises from 2021Q1 to 2025Q3, including Vedanta, Glencore, TECK, etc. The total production shows fluctuations over different quarters and years, with varying year - on - year growth rates [16] Global Zinc Concentrate Annual Output - The annual output and year - on - year growth rate of global zinc concentrate from 2017 to 2025E are presented. The output in 2025E is expected to be 1262.05 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 5.90% [70] Zinc Concentrate Production Change Forecast - In 2025, overseas mines are expected to have a net increase of 59.49 million tons in production, with new mines, production increases, restarts, and some mines reducing production or shutting down. Domestic mines are expected to have a new production increase of 10.80 million tons, with a total global net increase of 70.29 million tons [73] - Forecasts for production changes from 2026 - 2030 are also provided, with a total net increase of 23.27 million tons in 2026, 5.60 million tons in 2027, 12.10 million tons in 2028, 6.30 million tons in 2029, and 0.70 million tons in 2030 [75]

财达期货｜铜周报 财达期货｜铜周报 2025-11-10 铜价短期震荡走势为主 F3084967 Z0018883 总的来看，鲍威尔言论偏鹰对铜价不利，下游需求不能为铜价提供持续 上行动能，前期冲高后短期有回调压力，铜价可能重回震荡走势，但基本面 支撑较强，中长期还是易涨难跌。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1页共 3页 财达期货｜铜周报 国内外铜期货近期走势 数据来源：同花顺 iFinD 国内铜现货价格近期走势 数据来源：同花顺 iFinD 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 2页共 3页 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约周一大幅走弱，延续上周冲高回落的跌势， 后续周内维持震荡走势，周五收于 85920 元/吨，较上周有 1.25%的跌幅。 供需方面，嘉能可（Glencore）公布数据显示前三个季度铜产量下降 17%， 公司还下调了今年铜产量目标。进口铜精矿现货 TC 指数维持在-42 美元/吨 一线，现货冶炼利润持续亏损。SMM 铜线缆企业开工率 63.45%，环比回升 2.66 个百分点，铜价出现回调，缓解了部分前期高铜价对需求的抑制。下游 提货节奏加快，漆包线行业成品库存周转天数也有小幅下降。SM ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: The government shutdown continues to affect liquidity [2]. - Silver: It will have an oscillating rebound [2]. - Copper: Lacks a clear driver, and the price will oscillate [2]. - Zinc: Will have a wide - range oscillation [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support the price [2]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2]. - Aluminum: There is potential for upward movement [2]. - Alumina: There is support at the lower level [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and risks in Indonesia are in a tug - of - war, and it will oscillate at a low level [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market reality drags down the steel price, and it will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 921.26 with a daily increase of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 919.96 with a night - session increase of 0.25%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 25122510 increased by 35,620 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 1,223. The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 1,800 kg compared with the previous day [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Although US consumer confidence is close to a record low, hopes that the US government shutdown will end boosted the US stock market on Friday [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 11484 with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 11405.00 with a night - session increase of 0.10%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 increased by 11,217 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 469. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 16888 kg compared with the previous day [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [6]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,940 with a daily decrease of 0.44%, and the night - session closing price was 85920 with a night - session decrease of 0.02%. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 499, and the inventory of London Copper increased by 1,425 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US government shutdown may have a serious impact on the economy, and mining giant Glencore plans to close its Canadian refineries. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22720 with a 0.20% increase, and the closing price of the London Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3066.5 with a 0.51% increase. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc futures increased by 1246 tons, and the inventory of London Zinc increased by 800 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Treasury will auction $125 billion in Treasury bonds this week, and the market liquidity is under pressure [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17420 with a 0.06% decrease, and the closing price of the London Lead 3M electronic disk was 2045 with a 0.42% increase. The inventory of London Lead decreased by 1800 tons [14]. - **News**: The government will strengthen AI technology research and application. The US government shutdown may halve the Q4 GDP growth rate [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 283,510 with a 0.03% increase, and the closing price of the London Tin 3M electronic disk was 35,820 with a 0.17% increase. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 62, and the inventory of London Tin increased by 60 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, there are impacts from the US government shutdown and other macro - events [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21625. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2783. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21010. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 60.70 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 54.92 million tons [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest since March 2024. The US CPI report release is postponed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,440, and the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,565. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 916 [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, and China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - Concerns over supply due to data centers "grabbing electricity" are expected to support aluminum prices in the short term [1]. - Liquidity concerns and tariff rulings are gradually exhausting bearish factors for precious metals, with a focus on the developments regarding U.S. government operations and tariff decisions [1]. - The copper market remains tight due to supply disruptions and internal competition among smelters, which is expected to support copper prices [1]. - The lithium market is experiencing fluctuations, with production expectations from the Jiangxia Mine impacting prices, while strong demand from downstream sectors is providing upward pressure [2]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to reduced purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, leading to a weaker market outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The liquidity concerns stemming from the U.S. government shutdown have led to a significant increase in cash balances, impacting market liquidity [1]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearings on tariff rulings have not yet provided a resolution, with expectations that tariffs will remain in place regardless of the court's decision [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The market is facing a tight supply situation due to disruptions in mining and smelting operations, with a notable increase in global copper inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industry is stable with no significant production changes, but concerns over electricity supply are expected to keep prices strong [1]. - **Nickel**: The market is experiencing a downturn due to oversupply and reduced demand from traditional sectors [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating with production increases and strong demand from the battery sector, indicating a balanced market [2]. - **Cobalt**: The supply gap remains rigid, with prices expected to stabilize at high levels due to ongoing demand [2]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities within the sector [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concerns about tight copper supply continue to provide support for copper prices, but the upward driving force of copper futures prices has weakened. It is recommended to establish long positions around 85,000 after the macro - economy stabilizes [14][16][47]. - The copper market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include low inventory and tight supply at the mine end, while bearish factors include weak macro - economic sentiment, insufficient actual demand, and the strengthening of the US dollar [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US economic data affects the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US government shutdown may impact the economy. The copper market has both bullish factors such as tight mine supply and bearish factors like weak demand [9][11][7]. - China's copper imports, production, and demand show different trends. For example, copper concentrate imports have changes, and the production of some copper products is affected by factors such as maintenance and policies [16][21]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Low inventory and tight operation at the mine end, and the TC of copper concentrate remains at a low level, providing support for copper prices [7][14][17]. - **Bearish Factors**: Weak macro - economic sentiment, insufficient actual demand, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [7][8][11]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data** - China's September copper concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile decreased significantly, while that from Peru slightly increased [16]. - As of the week ending October 31, the weekly index of Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC was - 42.45 dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.79 dollars per dry ton from the previous week [18]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper actual output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. The output in October continued to decline due to factors such as smelter maintenance [21]. - **Demand - side Data** - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [25]. - In September 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline, but still lower than the same period last year [28]. - In September 2025, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [31]. - The real estate market is weak, with indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and sales area showing year - on - year declines [36][38]. - The new energy vehicle industry maintains a strong momentum. In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - London Metal Exchange copper inventory increased last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased in the week ending October 31, and domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased from November 3 to 6 [43]. - On November 6, the Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 35 yuan per ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 30.96 dollars per ton [45]. 3.4 Market Outlook The upward driving force of copper futures prices has weakened. It is recommended to establish long positions around 85,000 after the macro - economy stabilizes [47].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards as they return to the logic of improved macro - atmosphere, strong medium - term fundamentals, and short - term high prices suppressing spot demand [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices rose, the US dollar index declined, and risk assets rose across the board. Shanghai copper reached 86,000, with total positions decreasing by 299 lots. Spot copper rose 660 to 85,995, and the premium rose to 30 [10] - Due to the rising copper prices, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices. The social inventory in China increased by 0.32 tons this week compared with Monday, indicating weak short - term demand [10] - The LME0 - 3 contango widened to 38, the spot import loss was nearly 500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of Yangshan copper was limited [10] Group 5: Industry News - There are rumors that Glencore plans to shut down the Horne smelter and CCR refinery in Canada. The two facilities have a combined annual output of over 300,000 tons of copper, accounting for about 17% of US imports. If the shutdown plan is implemented, it will exacerbate the global supply shortage [11] - Kenadyr Metals Corp. announced that its Adelita copper - gold - silver project has obtained all social, environmental, and exploration permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration plan will start in November [11] - On November 5, Zambia reopened its border with Tanzania, resuming the flow of goods on an important trade corridor. The average number of trucks cleared in each direction per day is 250 [11]