Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 18, 2026 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views LPG Part - Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. Although the supply in the Middle East remains tight, there is still supply pressure after the impact of fog at US terminals weakens. With low chemical profits and many PDH maintenance plans in Q1, the downward drive is significant. [3][4] - The lowest deliverable product may switch as the spread between Shandong civil and ether - post C4 widens. Near the cancellation month, attention should be paid to the change in the number of warehouse receipts. [4] Propylene Part - After the rapid rise of spot prices, the upward drive weakens. The tight - balance pattern of propylene is difficult to change next week. Although the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing high - priced propylene may weaken, the rigid demand for production provides strong support, so propylene is expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern. [6][7] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend. The lowest deliverable product is still Shandong civil gas, and the spread between civil and ether - post C4 has widened to 100 yuan/ton. [10][13] - Propane prices maintain a moderately strong trend, with the FEI index and related import costs showing an upward trend. The spot premium further increases, and the freight rate remains stable, while the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East expands. [10][21][27] Supply - US LPG shipments to Asia are flat month - on - month, while Middle East shipments are tight. The total LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons (+0.1%), with 21.7 tons of civil gas (-0.1%) and 16.7 tons of ether - post C4 (-0.1%). Propane imports decrease by 0.2 tons month - on - month. [39][43][49][63] Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rates decline, while MTBE operating rates remain flat. LPG refinery inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025, with a slight de - stocking of civil gas refinery inventories. Port inventories in East China, Shandong, and South China decline month - on - month, while Fujian accumulates inventory due to concentrated arrivals. [80][82][100] Propylene Part Price & Spread - The cost - end propane is firm, propylene prices rise strongly, and PDH profits fluctuate and recover. Downstream prices continue to rise, but the spread between propylene and powder returns to the loss range. International and domestic propylene prices rise month - on - month, and the import window is partially opened. [115][117][118] Balance Sheet - PDH and MTO operating rates decline month - on - month, and the powder profit is compressed, leading to a decline in its operating rate. The supply is expected to tighten gradually as the Jinneng PDH and Lianyungang Shenghong MTO are expected to undergo maintenance. The demand is supported by the rigid procurement of PP powder, and the situation is expected to improve in January. [139][159] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.2% (-0.7%). Refinery operating rates remain stable, while cracking and PDH operating rates decline. MTO operating rates also decline, but profits are recovering. [170][190][195] - The import volume of propylene increases by 0.96 tons (7.21%) month - on - month, and the import profit shows an upward trend. [204] Demand - The operating rates of PP, PP powder, PO, and acrylonitrile decline, while the operating rates of n - butanol, octanol, phenol - acetone, and ECH increase. The profit performance of PP shows process differentiation, and the profit of PP powder returns to the loss range. PO prices rise strongly, and the company's profitability improves significantly. [211][231][243][273] Downstream Inventory - PP production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and powder inventory all decline. The inventory of acrylonitrile plants and ports shows different changes, and the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port declines. [298][299][300]

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：巴斯夫湛江一体化基地聚乙烯装置投 产后首车交付，SABIC 出售两大资产 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 0.45%，创业板指数上涨 1%， 沪深 300 下跌 0.57%，中信基础化工指数上涨 1.27%，申万化工指数上涨 0.9%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为电 子化学品(5.16%)、橡胶助剂(4.66%)、钾肥(4.23%)、合成树脂(3.67%)、磷肥及 磷化工(2.85%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为改性塑料(-4.01%)、钛白 粉(-2.84%)、橡胶制品(-1.43%)、轮胎(-1.18%)、纯碱(-0.85%)。 本周行业主要动态： 巴斯夫湛江一体化基地聚乙烯装置投产后首车交付。巴斯夫湛江一体化 基地再度迎来重要里程碑全新聚乙烯(PE)装置正式投产，并顺利完成首车 产品交付。2026 年 1 月 8 日，首批巴聚赋聚乙烯产品由专业运输车辆从湛 江基地发出，准时抵达客户仓库。这一成果不仅彰显了巴斯夫"以客户为 中心"的服 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260118 情绪过热后略有降温，但大方向依旧乐观 2026 年 01 月 18 日 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.1.12-2026.1.16） 市场行情展望：（2026.1.19-2026.1.23） ◼ 观点：情绪过热后略有降温，但大方向依旧乐观。 基金配置建议： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《特朗普的"通胀焦虑"与上中下策》 2026-01-17 《特朗普 IEEPA 关税判决前景四问》 2026-01-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类型分别为： 主题指数 ETF（311.11 亿元），跨境主题指数 ETF（62.12 亿元），行 业指数 ETF（28.42 亿元）。 ◼ 权益类 ETF 产品基金规模变化：规模增加排名前三名 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane industry were 17,843 yuan/ton, 14,014 yuan/ton, and 14,188 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 200 yuan/ton, 157 yuan/ton, and 290 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits also declined [2]. - In the oil - gas - olefin sector, prices of raw materials such as ethane, propane, etc. had different changes this week. The average prices of polyethylene and polypropylene increased, and the theoretical profits of different production routes also changed accordingly [2]. - In the coal - chemical industry, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had slight fluctuations, and their gross profits also changed slightly [2]. - In the animal nutrition products sector, the average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine had minor changes this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The Basic Chemical Index had a weekly increase of 0.9%, a monthly increase of 12.3%, a quarterly increase of 12.9%, an annual increase of 44.7%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.0% as of 2026/1/16. Different chemical companies had different performance in terms of stock price changes and earnings. For example, Wanhua Chemical's stock price decreased by 0.8% this week, while Baofeng Energy's increased by 5.2% [8]. - The report also provided data on the total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of relevant companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data** - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: The average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI decreased this week. Their respective seven - year quantiles were 51%, 45%, and 65% for prices, and 71%, 49%, and 71% for gross profits [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane, NYMEX natural gas, Brent crude oil, and naphtha had different changes. Their ten - year quantiles also varied [8]. - **Profit Comparison of Different Routes**: The single - ton profits of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene had different changes compared to the previous week, the beginning of the year, and the same period last year [8]. - **C2 and C3 Plates**: The average prices and price differences between products and raw materials in the C2 and C3 plates had different changes, with different ten - year quantiles. For example, the price of ethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the price difference between HDPE and ethylene increased by 353 yuan/ton [10]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: - **Coal - Coke Products**: The average prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the gross profit of coke was - 47 yuan/ton, with a 3 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Traditional Coal - Chemical Products**: The average prices and gross profits of synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **New Materials**: The average prices and gross profits of DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, PA6, and PA66 had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **Animal Nutrition Products Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine changed slightly, with different ten - year quantiles [10]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends**: The report did not provide specific content in the text, only the title. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector**: The report presented the price trends of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in China, as well as their price - spread situations [16][18][20]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector**: It showed the price trends of raw materials such as MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, and the profit situations of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene [24][27][29]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector**: The report presented the price trends and gross profit situations of coal - coke products, traditional coal - chemical products, and new materials in the coal - chemical industry [40][46][51]. - **2.5 Animal Nutrition Products Sector**: It showed the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [55][59][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Insights - The integration of "AI+" in the chemical industry is being driven by national policies aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency through advanced technologies like large models and digital twins [1][2] - The global small nucleic acid drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with projections indicating a market size exceeding $15 billion by 2026, driven by technological breakthroughs and commercialization [3][33] - Key players like Bluestar Technology and Lianhua Technology are leading breakthroughs in small nucleic acid production and CDMO services, respectively [4][36] Summary by Sections AI Integration in Chemical Manufacturing - The chemical industry is advancing towards large-scale application of "AI+" through three main pathways: self-developed large models by leading companies, collaboration with third-party platforms, and investment in AI startups [2][27] - Major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are embedding AI into core business processes to enhance operational efficiency [2][27] Small Nucleic Acid Drug Market - The small nucleic acid drug market has grown from $0.1 million in 2016 to $3.25 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 217.8% [3][33] - The market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a forecasted CAGR of 35% from 2020 to 2025 [3][33] Key Players and Innovations - Bluestar Technology has established a comprehensive technology platform for the synthesis and purification of small nucleic acids, making it one of only two global suppliers with such capabilities [4][34] - Lianhua Technology is expanding its CDMO services for small nucleic acids, achieving significant progress in international market collaborations [4][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector that leverage data for efficiency gains, such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and Wanhu Chemical [5][32] - In the small nucleic acid sector, attention is drawn to Bluestar Technology and Lianhua Technology for their strategic positions in the market [5][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Although short - term electricity price expectations and the rush to export may support PVC prices, in the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, with the current valuation being moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.6%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 80%, up 0.3% from the previous week; the ethylene method is 78.8%, down 0.8% from the previous week. The supply - side load was flat last week, with the loads of Fujian Wanhua, Yibin Tianyuan, and Salt Lake Magnesium Industry decreasing. The load is expected to decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term rush to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream sectors remained stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the profile load is 29.9%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The overall downstream load is 43.9%, down 0.1% from the previous week, and the overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 92.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 31.1 million tons, with a destocking of 1.7 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 114.4 million tons, with a stockpiling of 3 million tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 145.5 million tons, with a stockpiling of 1.3 million tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Currently, inventory is turning to stockpiling. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the rush to export, but there is significant medium - term export pressure, making it difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The content mainly includes multiple charts such as PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, showing the historical trends of these data from 2022 to 2026 [15][19][24][26] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - The content presents various charts related to inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, and warehouse receipts, as well as charts related to profit, such as the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][39][41] 3.4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices in Wuhai and Shandong are presented in the chart, along with the inventory and operating rate of calcium carbide, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The calcium carbide price is currently stable [47][48] - **Other Raw Materials**: The chart shows the price trends of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [55] 3.5. Supply Side - **Capacity**: The historical trend of PVC capacity and the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025 are presented, including information on specific production facilities, production processes, production capacities, and commissioning times, with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons/year in 2025 [59][63] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly PVC production volume, are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [68][69] 3.6. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of PVC downstream sectors such as pipes, films, and profiles are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season, with the pipe load at 35.4%, the film load at 66.4%, the profile load at 29.9%, and the overall downstream load at 43.9% [74][75] - **Export Demand**: The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume are presented, showing their historical trends. Currently, it is the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy cancellation on April 1st will lead to a short - term rush to export [77][82] - **Related Indicators**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand [84]

股票简称：万华化学 股票代码：600309 公告编号：临2026-03号 特此公告。 万华化学集团股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据公司于2025年11月8日披露的"万华化学集团股份有限公司宁波工业园MDI二期装置停产检修公 告"（公告编号：临2025-64号），本公司全资子公司万华化学（宁波）有限公司的MDI二期装置（100 万吨/年）于2025年11月15日开始停产检修。 截至目前，上述装置的停产检修已经结束，恢复正常生产。 2026年1月17日 万华化学集团股份有限公司 宁波工业园MDI二期装置复产公告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation between Wanhua Chemical and Juren New Materials focuses on core raw material supply, quality control, and supply chain optimization to address market fluctuations and quality challenges in the raw material sector [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Juren New Materials, established in March 2014, is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a key leading company in Hunan Province, with multiple rounds of financing from various investors [4]. - The company plans to raise 292 million yuan through an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange by June 2025, aimed at funding a 40,000 tons/year special polycaprolactone intelligent chemical plant project and a research center [4]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Achievements - Juren New Materials has become one of the few companies globally capable of industrially producing ε-caprolactone, with its first production line launched in June 2016 [6]. - The company has achieved significant production capacity growth, with ε-caprolactone capacity increasing from 3,500 tons in 2022 to 34,000 tons in 2024 [8]. - In 2023, Juren New Materials successfully trialed a new 50,000 tons/year biodegradable material ε-caprolactone facility, the largest single-unit ε-caprolactone plant globally [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Financial Performance - Juren New Materials holds a 37.21% market share in the domestic ε-caprolactone market as of 2023, making it the largest supplier in this sector [7]. - The company's revenue has shown rapid growth, with figures of 192 million yuan in 2022, 282 million yuan in 2023, and projected 479 million yuan in 2024, alongside net profits increasing from 47.26 million yuan in 2022 to 83.35 million yuan in 2024 [9]. Group 4: Product Applications and Innovations - ε-caprolactone and its derivatives are widely used in various fields, including biodegradable materials, medical applications, and as components in solid-state lithium batteries, showcasing their importance in advanced technology sectors [12]. - The company has developed a range of derivatives from ε-caprolactone, which are utilized in industries such as new energy vehicles, environmental coatings, and biomedical applications [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Wanhua Chemical's price for butyl acrylate in Northeast China has increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8210 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.5% rise, indicating tightening regional spot supply or strengthening demand [1][5][6] - The price increase of butyl acrylate is beneficial for the entire acrylic acid industry chain, as it is a major derivative of acrylic acid, suggesting that the spot price of acrylic acid is likely to rise in the short term [2][6] - The production profit expansion from butyl acrylate will stimulate the procurement demand for acrylic acid, supporting the upward movement of spot prices, although there is a need to monitor downstream acceptance to avoid potential substitution effects [3][7] Group 2 - The pricing mechanism for bulk commodities is based on big data and pricing models, which can determine transaction settlement prices for specified dates or average prices over specified periods [3][7] - The pricing formula includes an adjustment coefficient and a premium or discount that accounts for logistics costs, brand price differences, and regional price differences [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to see a volatile downward trend in the short - term, but the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to show a relatively strong volatile trend under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. Downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. Export orders last week were lower than before New Year's Day, at a general level. The Indian market price is low, and the demand from India is limited. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when China cancels the export tax rebate for PVC. Social inventories continued to increase last week and are still at a high level, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas is still large. The 30 - city weekly commercial housing transaction area increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which has boosted the sentiment in the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production expectations of some enterprises have decreased, though the current production decline is limited. The PVC开工率 will change little next week as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan are still under maintenance. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, procurement enthusiasm is average, and social inventories continue to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract decreased in an oscillating manner with a position reduction. The lowest price was 4,782 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,886 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,803 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.52%. The position volume decreased by 21,502 lots to 1,020,573 lots [2] - Basis: On January 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,558 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,803 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 253 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with the residential sales area decreasing by 8.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, and the new residential construction area decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completed area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, and the completed residential area decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of January 11, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [6]