Core Viewpoint - Thailand has become a top destination for Chinese tourists during the Spring Festival, showcasing not only its welcoming atmosphere but also the integration of Chinese brands into local culture and commerce [1][2]. Group 1: Tourism and Cultural Integration - The Spring Festival celebrations in Chiang Mai included traditional decorations and activities, making it a festive experience for both locals and tourists [1]. - Chinese brands such as Ora, BYD, and Nezha have established a presence in Thailand, indicating a successful integration into the local market beyond just catering to Chinese consumers [2]. Group 2: Beverage and Food Industry Expansion - The hot climate and favorable economic conditions in Thailand have facilitated the expansion of new tea beverage brands, with several stores like Mixue and Nayuki opening in key locations [3][4]. - Nayuki has adapted its product offerings to local tastes, with a focus on combining beverages with baked goods, which has been well-received by local consumers [5]. - Haidilao has successfully attracted both Chinese and Korean tourists, offering a unique dining experience that incorporates local flavors while maintaining its core offerings [6][8]. Group 3: Retail and Brand Localization - Retail brands like Miniso and Pop Mart are rapidly expanding in Thailand, becoming recognizable symbols for both local youth and Chinese tourists [8][9]. - Pop Mart has tailored its products to include local cultural elements, enhancing its appeal in the Southeast Asian market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net selling from northbound capital, totaling HKD 40.57 billion, with a net sell of HKD 54.95 billion from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net buy of HKD 14.38 billion from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Northbound Capital Activity - Tencent (00700) saw the highest net buy of HKD 8.18 billion, driven by its strong performance in the AI sector during the Spring Festival, with MAU reaching 114 million and DAU peaking over 50 million [4][5] - Alibaba (09988) recorded a net buy of HKD 6.06 billion, following the release of new AI models, which are expected to enhance its cloud services [5] - Meituan (03690) and Xiaomi Group (01810) received net buys of HKD 6.77 billion and HKD 5.38 billion, respectively, indicating positive investor sentiment towards these companies [8] Group 2: Net Selling Activity - The largest net sell was observed in the Yingfu Fund (02800) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828), with net sells of HKD 44.1 billion and HKD 11.36 billion, respectively [6] - China Merchants Energy (01138) faced a net sell of HKD 3.57 billion, despite a temporary increase in VLCC freight rates during the Spring Festival [7] - The Southbound capital's activity reflects a cautious but optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, with structural opportunities remaining despite external constraints [7]

Group 1 - The overall retail market performance in South China during the 2026 Spring Festival was weak, with a decline in customer traffic and average transaction value being the main factors affecting sales [3] - Consumer travel increased in South China, contributing to the decline in foot traffic in shopping districts [3] - The toy sector remains highly prosperous, with Pop Mart (09992) expected to achieve over 25% growth for the year, driven by strong IP operation capabilities [4] Group 2 - The cosmetics sector showed slight overall growth, but there was a clear divide between foreign and domestic brands, with foreign brands like Dior and MAC recording approximately 10% growth [5] - The restaurant industry exhibited a K-shaped recovery during the Spring Festival, with large dining establishments facing pressure on average transaction values, while fast food and casual dining showed relative stability [6] - The apparel sector's sales remained flat, with growth primarily driven by pre-Festival consumption, and sports brands experiencing a slowdown in same-store sales growth [7] Group 3 - The luggage brand Samsonite (01910) benefited from travel demand, with sales rising approximately 15% year-on-year during January-February 2026 [8] - The jewelry sector saw a decline in customer traffic but benefited from rising gold prices, leading to a high single-digit increase in sales [9]

海通国际发布研报称，2026年春节期间华南百货客流下滑，消费分化明显。潮玩赛道高景气，泡泡玛特 (09992)预计全年增长超25%，毛戈平(01318)凭借核心产品维持高双位数增长。箱包品牌新秀丽(01910) 受益出行需求，1-2月同比回升约15%。餐饮服饰表现平淡，黄金珠宝靠金价支撑销售额。 海通国际主要观点如下： 事件 根据该行近期对某华南百货渠道的调研反馈，该百货渠道2026年春节期间零售市场整体表现平淡，客流 下滑及客单价下降为主要拖累因素 根据专家对多个核心项目的监测，2026年春节假期前六天中有五天商场客流同比录得下跌，仅一天实现 同比增长，整体经营表现低于公司内部预期。尽管车流数据因部分商圈周边停车费用相对较低而普遍上 升，但部分驾车客流可能仅停留于周边项目，并未完全转化为场内实际消费，专家分析指出华南地区消 费者出游人数增多是导致商圈客流同比下降的主要原因之一。 潮玩赛道持续高景气，头部品牌凭借IP运营能力及会员粘性保持强劲增长 根据专家数据，泡泡玛特整体增长强劲，1Q25因Labubu IP爆火同比增长40%左右，同比增速仍保持稳 定，基于其强大的IP运营能力(专家预期26年仍会有一款大热 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly after four consecutive declines, with the consumption ETF Huatai (159268) rising nearly 1% and trading volume reaching approximately 600 million yuan [1] - Major component stocks showed positive performance, with Haidilao increasing nearly 6%, Anta Sports rising over 3%, and China Duty Free and Mengniu Dairy both up over 1% [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - Shanghai's five departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and housing provident fund loan policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [3] - A recent meeting emphasized the importance of supporting local and enterprise initiatives to explore new growth points, particularly in the silver economy and elderly care services [3] Group 3: Consumer Trends - During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3] - The consumption sector in A-shares rebounded after three consecutive declines, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) rising over 1% and net inflows exceeding 48 million yuan in the past five days [3] Group 4: Service Consumption Insights - The hotel industry saw a significant increase in revenue per available room (REVPAR) by 30.7% during the Spring Festival week compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [6] - Hainan's duty-free shopping during the Spring Festival saw a 19% increase in spending and a 24.6% increase in visitors compared to the same period last year [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The focus on expanding domestic demand is becoming a long-term strategy for China's economic growth, with an emphasis on improving residents' income and enhancing service consumption [9] - Signs of recovery in domestic demand are evident, with consumer confidence stabilizing and an increase in disposable income growth rates [10] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization after years of decline, with recent policy changes aimed at improving market conditions [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing battle between bulls and bears has led to significant challenges for Pop Mart, prompting founder Wang Ning to reconsider the company's identity and future direction [1][3][25] Group 1: Market Performance - After the release of its semi-annual report in August 2025, Pop Mart's stock price fell over 40% by January 2026, while the premium of its core IP LABUBU in the secondary market dropped from thousands of yuan to original prices [1][3][25] - From January 9 to February 10, 2026, Pop Mart's stock rebounded over 50%, restoring its market capitalization to 300 billion HKD, with Morgan Stanley changing its rating from "reduce" to "increase" [3][25] - By August 2025, Pop Mart's market capitalization reached a historical high of 435.9 billion HKD, following a surge in stock price after positive earnings forecasts [5][27] Group 2: Product Strategy - In early 2026, Pop Mart launched three new products, including the PUCKY plush toy, which sold out quickly, and the "怦然星动" blind box, which achieved sales of over 500,000 units in its first week [1][3][25] - By the end of 2025, Pop Mart planned to increase LABUBU's monthly production capacity from 10 million to 50 million units, despite facing short-selling pressures from foreign institutions [3][25] - The company aims to reduce speculative behavior and return to the essence of collectible toys by stabilizing prices through increased supply [4][25] Group 3: Supply Chain and Quality Control - Pop Mart is facing challenges in its supply chain, particularly with the production of plush toys, which requires complex quality control due to different manufacturing processes [4][25][30] - The company has begun to self-build its supply chain factories to regain control over the production of its core IPs, reflecting Wang Ning's commitment to product quality [10][30] Group 4: IP Expansion and Market Diversification - Pop Mart is actively expanding its IP matrix, with a focus on creating a synergistic effect where the popularity of LABUBU can elevate other IPs [11][32] - The sales of other IPs, such as Molly and CRYBABY, have significantly increased, indicating that LABUBU's success has positively impacted the overall brand [34][35] - The company is also exploring lower-priced product lines, such as the Mini LABUBU and the "萌粒" series, to attract a broader customer base [14][35] Group 5: International Market Challenges - Despite strong growth in international markets, including a 1270% increase in the U.S. market and a 740% increase in Europe, Pop Mart has not met market expectations [38][41] - The company faces challenges in changing the perception that it is solely associated with LABUBU in overseas markets, necessitating a longer-term cultural penetration strategy [21][38] - Pop Mart is adapting its approach to international markets, recognizing the need for localized strategies that resonate with different consumer behaviors [43][38]

也就是说，先喜欢，再判断值不值。 情绪价值成为核心，情绪消费正在成为全球趋势。 市场研究机构数据显示：中国情绪消费相关市场规模已接近2万亿元。 相关行业包括：潮玩、宠物、体验消费、IP联名、内容娱乐、二次元文化。 这些行业的共同特点是：功能并不稀缺，但情绪非常明确。 社交传播已成为产品一部分，过去，产品与营销是两件事。 今天，越来越多产品本身就具备传播属性。 例如，名创优品近几年快速扩张。 其增长背后的关键策略之一，就是IP联名常态化。 合作IP包括：迪士尼、三丽鸥、漫威、哈利波特等。 门店不只是卖商品，而是提供：拍照场景、收藏价值、社交分享素材。 很多消费者排队，并不是因为刚需，而是参与感。 情绪成为溢价来源。 另一个明显变化是：年轻人愿意为情绪支付溢价。 例如Jellycat 在全球范围持续火爆。 Jellycat 的毛绒玩具价格往往远高于普通玩具。 但在社交平台上，用户分享的是：陪伴感、治愈感、情绪寄托。 它卖的不是毛绒，而是情绪安慰剂。 三、为什么情绪消费会爆发？ Z世代消费观念的变化，并不是偶然。 背后至少有三层结构性原因。 1、物质丰富后的心理转移 中国消费市场已经进入供给极度丰富阶段。 大多数功 ...

分析师 1: 好的，各位投资人晚上好，非常欢迎参加我们今天的这场电话会。今天我们是非常荣幸的 邀请到一位在行业非常资深的高端购物中心的专家。为我们分享一下春节假期高端消费的 大致情况。那今天我们就直接进行 QA 了，然后有几个大家共性关注的问题，我先跟专家 做个请教，就第一个先麻烦专家帮我们分享，跟拆分一下春节假期在可比口径下。我们这 边的，包括销售额，还有客流、客单的一个大致情况，跟去年同期的对比，谢谢。 高端购物中心行业专家: 那， OK，行。长度和跨度其实都不太一样。那么考虑到整个口径相同的一个原因，然后 我就统一的就按照这个叫什么？按照从大年三十就是我们所说的除夕，除夕那一天，然后 到年初六，大概 7 天的这样的一个数据，然后去做一个对比，这样可能两年之间的这样的 一个口径，就把它变得趋同或者相同。然后更有可比性一点。那么我们系统内部的这个情 况是这个样子的，因为刚刚过去的春节。然后我们今天才是第一天上班，正式上班。然后 有些数据其实还是在，正在在这个统计的过程当中，可能应该等一下，我们要问到的有， 有些品牌或者分品牌的一些情况，可能现在目前可能还不能完全的去展示出来。 但是这个我觉得其实问题并不大， ...

Market Commentary - Federal Reserve officials are sending strong "hawkish" signals, with Boston Fed President Collins and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicating that interest rates should not be lowered further until inflation returns to 2%, suggesting that current rates will be maintained for some time [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic explicitly stated that rate cuts cannot alleviate the structural unemployment crisis caused by AI [2] Company Developments - Anthropic has released an upgraded enterprise-level AI tool, actively expanding into investment banking, human resources, and other business scenarios [2] - The company's philosophy of "collaboration over disruption" has effectively alleviated market fears regarding AI, boosting the performance of technology stocks [2] Market Flow - On Tuesday, the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HKD 3.1 billion, with Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) receiving the highest inflow of HKD 1.58 billion, followed by Meituan-W (03690) [2] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded the highest net outflow of HKD 205 million, followed by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) [2]

2026 年 2 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,590 | -1.82 | 3.74 | | 恒生国企 | 9,008 | -2.06 | 1.06 | | 恒生科技 | 5,271 | -2.13 | -4.45 | | 上证综指 | 4,117 | 0.87 | 3.74 | | 深证综指 | 2,713 | 1.23 | 7.21 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,308 | 0.99 | 3.28 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,175 | 0.76 | 2.31 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,890 | 0.77 | 0.65 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,864 | 1.04 | -1.63 | | 德国 DAX | 24,986 | -0.02 | 2.02 | | 法国 CA ...