Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with copper prices hitting new highs, leading to a strong opening in the non-ferrous sector [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a significant increase of over 4%, reaching a new high since its listing, with strong capital inflow exceeding 50 million yuan [1] - Major non-ferrous stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum have shown substantial gains, with increases of 5.93% and 6.91% respectively [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions have made precious metals a focal point, with COMEX gold rising by 3% and silver by over 7% [3] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide guidance on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy [3] - Supply disruptions in industrial metals are ongoing, with strikes and indefinite shutdowns reported in key mining operations [3] Group 3 - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by expected monetary and fiscal easing from the Federal Reserve and ongoing inflationary pressures [4] - The copper market is influenced by both cyclical and structural factors, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 830,000 tons in 2026, leading to potential price increases [6] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a comprehensive exposure to various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [5][9] Group 4 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a leading "gold-copper content" of 45%, with significant representation in copper (31%) and gold (14%) [8] - The ETF's top five constituent stocks have a high concentration of 36%, indicating a strong focus on key strategic metals [9] - Since 2022, the Non-ferrous 50 ETF has outperformed peers with a cumulative return of 86.28%, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [13]

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has seen significant inflows and a price increase, driven by expectations of rising prices for gold, copper, and rare earths due to macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The mining ETF (561330) has increased by over 4% and has seen a net inflow of over 230 million yuan for five consecutive days [1]. - The mining ETF (561330) ranks third in overall market performance for 2025 and first among metal ETFs, with a year-to-date increase of 106.11% [4][13]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Prices - The ongoing Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increased macroeconomic uncertainty, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to support gold prices [3]. - Supply constraints in the market, coupled with strong demand for copper, aluminum, and lithium, are likely to lead to sustained price increases for these commodities [3][12]. Group 3: ETF Composition and Strategy - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has a higher concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten constituents accounting for 55.77% of the index [4]. - The index has a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths at 55.8%, compared to 50.9% in the broader CSI Nonferrous Index, making it more responsive to favorable market conditions [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply-side constraints are seen as a fundamental driver for the industry, with low inventory levels and increased demand from manufacturing and energy transition projects expected to amplify price increases [12]. - Analysts predict that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply tightness, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpected increases in storage demand [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the industry index rising by 1.94% and individual stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Zhongkuang Resources showing significant gains [1] - Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% to 55.24% [1] - The overall upward trend in non-ferrous metals is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions and loose liquidity, with copper futures reaching a historic high of $13,000 per ton and aluminum prices surpassing $3,000 per ton for the first time in over three years [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, the short-term global copper inventory is expected to continue adjusting, with supply shortages in copper mines reinforcing the upward price trend [2] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to benefit from low alumina prices, leading to an expansion in profit margins, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may further support aluminum prices [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-driven factors in cobalt pricing, particularly in relation to the Democratic Republic of Congo's efforts to secure pricing power [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 51.65% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]

证券研究报告 从宏微观维度观测市场节奏 春潮涌动，万木争春 证券分析师 ：芦哲 执业证书编号：S0600524110003 联系邮箱：luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 ：唐遥衎 执业证书编号：S0600524120016 联系邮箱：tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月5日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ✓ 2026年1月市场行情展望 ✓ 基金配置建议： 风险提示：发生预期外重大宏观事件；宏观数据不及预期；市场环境变化时，模型存在失效风险。 2 摘要 ✓ 观点：1月宏微观模型结果，呈现开门红评分 ➢ 1月整体走势判断：2026年1月，宏观择时模型的月度评分是0分，历史上该分数万得全A指数全月上涨概率为76.92%，平均涨幅为 3.18%。叠加日历效应中春季躁动的提前启动，我们对后续1月A股权益整体走势持非常乐观的观点。如果后续出现调整，温和调整的 概率偏高，不必过于担忧。结构上依旧推荐关注我们报告中的ETF组合。 ➢ 2025年最后一周大盘指数的日均成交量突破两万亿元，说明交易情绪逐步回暖。ETF资金流向中，本周机器人、工业有色、卫星通信 等方向的ETF净流入金额排名靠前，可以 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded significantly, with spot gold breaking above $4,400 and spot silver surpassing $75 [1] - Domestic precious metal futures opened higher, with palladium futures rising over 12% and platinum nearly 12% [1] - The A-share precious metal sector saw an increase of 2%, with companies like Hunan Silver, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold leading the gains [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation is influencing market dynamics, as U.S. President Trump issued threats regarding Venezuela's interim president, indicating potential U.S. intervention and a desire for Venezuelan oil and resources [1] - Venezuela's foreign minister reiterated the country's commitment to peace and coexistence, emphasizing the need for international respect and cooperation [1]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 3.49% on January 5, with Hunan Silver leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up 2.24% [1] - Hunan Silver's stock price rose by 9.97% to 7.61, with a trading volume of 3.7486 million shares and a transaction value of 2.808 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 514 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 248 million yuan [1] - Hunan Silver had a main fund net inflow of 355 million yuan, accounting for 12.66% of its total trading [2] - Shandong Gold experienced a main fund net inflow of 226 million yuan, representing 9.89% of its total trading [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for 12 consecutive days, closing above 4000 points at 4023.42, up 1.38% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.24% to 13828.63, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.85% to 3294.55 [1][2] - Total market turnover reached 2.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 501.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with nearly 4200 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance Brain-Computer Interface Sector - The brain-computer interface sector experienced a surge, with over 30 stocks hitting the daily limit, driven by Elon Musk's announcement of large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices by Neuralink in 2026 [4] - Notable stocks include: - BeiYikang: +29.98% [5] - DaoShi Technology: +20.01% [5] - Sanbo Brain Science: +20.01% [5] - MeiHao Medical: +20.00% [5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector saw significant gains, with New China Life Insurance rising over 8% and China Pacific Insurance increasing by 7.52% [7] - The insurance industry reported a total premium income of 57.629 billion yuan for the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [6] Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector also performed well, with stocks like Yunhan Chip City and Puran Shares hitting the daily limit, and Zhongwei Company rising over 14% [8] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector rebounded, with stocks such as Tom Cat rising over 16% and Sanqi Interactive Entertainment hitting the daily limit [9] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw gains, with Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit and Western Gold rising over 6% [10] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector experienced a broad increase, with stocks like GuanHao Biological hitting the daily limit [11] - In 2025, 76 innovative drugs were approved for market, setting a historical record, with total licensing transactions exceeding 130 billion USD [11] Hainan Free Trade Zone Sector - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector faced a collective adjustment, with Hainan Development hitting the daily limit down and Haiqi Group falling over 8% [13] Transportation and Tourism Sector - The transportation and tourism sectors showed weakness, with Hainan Airport down 4.69% and various tourism stocks declining [15][14] Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the market may continue to exhibit structural trends, supported by positive investor sentiment from the strengthening of the Hong Kong market and the renminbi exchange rate [18] - The upcoming Spring Festival may trigger an early market rally, with a focus on technology leaders and cyclical sectors benefiting from price recovery expectations [18]

Group 1: Market Trends - Tin prices opened strongly in the domestic market, reaching an average price of 333,750 yuan/ton, with a significant daily increase of 7,750 yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a recent high in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - The weakening of the US dollar has provided a favorable environment for the non-ferrous sector, with the dollar index declining nearly 10% over the past year [4] - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for several months, with an increase of 53 tons in October, tightening market supply and pushing overall prices higher [7] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Traditional consumer electronics are currently in a downturn, leading to weaker demand for solder materials; however, AI computing power construction and growth in photovoltaic installations are emerging as new demand drivers [8] - The demand for high-grade tin paste is steadily increasing due to AI server requirements, while the release of new photovoltaic battery production capacity is also driving up solder consumption [8] Group 3: Investment Tools - The non-ferrous mining ETF (招商159690) focuses on upstream resource development and aims to capture excess returns from rising commodity prices by locking in the scarcity of mineral resources [11] - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme Index, with a concentrated holding in industry leaders [11] - Major holdings include Zijin Mining (approximately 10.4%), Northern Rare Earth (8.1%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (7.3%), covering key minerals such as gold, silver, copper, lithium, and cobalt [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by concerns over global supply chain disruptions and a recovering gold price above $4,400 [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry index (399395) has risen by 1.93%, with notable increases in stocks such as Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 7.08% and China Aluminum (601600) up 6.22% [1] - The market is witnessing a structural shift in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in copper, where a potential supply gap of approximately 830,000 tons is expected by 2026, leading to a significant price increase [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 51.65% of the index, with major players including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [3] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metals industry index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this sector [2][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic environment, industry fundamentals, capital allocation, and geopolitical issues, rather than a single cause [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.90%, with notable gains in stocks such as China Aluminum (up 5.40%) and Platinum New Materials (up 5.19%) [1] - Precious metals like silver and gold saw significant price increases, with silver rising nearly 5% to $76.358 per ounce and gold surpassing $4400, reflecting a broader trend in the precious metals market [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index accounted for 51.65% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum among the leaders [2]